Textile-Sector Changes Stir Up Southeast Asia
A dozen women wearing Muslim headscarves bend over whirring sewing machines in Prolexus Bhd.'s training room, practicing the most complicated techniques used to stitch the Nike and Gap outfits that are made on the factory floor downstairs.
Workers at this factory, tucked amid the leafy hills that surround this southern Malaysian town, have sewn all kinds of garments for big U.S. brands for 27 years. But Prolexus began outsourcing some of its orders five years ago to a company in Sri Lanka, and it is close to signing a joint venture deal in China. Soon all the basic sewing work will be sent abroad, and only the high-end jobs kept at home. How many jobs survive here will depend on the company's ability to boost productivity and skills.
"It's all about competitive advantage," says Lau Mong Ying, managing director of Prolexus, which employs 2,000 workers at this factory and another, further north, in Penang. "Malaysian workers are skilled, and we need to leverage that. But we've also got to become a regional company if we want to compete."
China's entry in late 2001 into the World Trade Organization, and the looming end of the textile-quota system among WTO members, are reshaping Southeast Asia's textile industry. These developments are forcing companies across the region to relocate basic jobs to countries with lower-paid labor, including China, while pushing the companies themselves to boost productivity and know-how among workers at home.
In 1994 WTO members agreed to phase out by the end of 2004 textile quotas that have restricted global trade in garments since they were imposed in 1974 by European and North American countries. This is expected to increase the dominance in this sector by China, which enjoys economies of scale, low-cost labor and an integrated domestic industry that spans cotton farming to clothing design. The World Bank estimates China's share of global clothing exports will more than double to 47% by 2010 from 20% today.
China has already seen big gains in the few categories that have gained quota-free status in recent years, such as brassieres and dressing gowns. China's textile and garment exports to the U.S. market more than doubled to $4.96 billion in 2002, and the American Manufacturing Trade Action Coalition predicts a doubling this year.
The trend is spurring companies like Prolexus to rethink traditional manufacturing practices. About 40% of Malaysia's major garment manufacturers have opened new factories in China or in countries such as Cambodia in the past few years in search of lower labor costs, industry executives say. China's dominance of the market is even squeezing some other low-cost countries. Cambodia's textile industry, for example, has focused on niche categories, like women's knitted apparel, where China has been constrained by the quota system.
The end of the quota system could spell bad news for such countries. Elena Ianchovichina, a senior economist at the World Bank, says she is especially concerned about Cambodia. "They've been operating in narrowly defined niches, and they'll have to go head-to-head with the Chinese in a market that hasn't even been tested by competition," she says. Cambodia has just been approved for membership in the WTO, and neighboring Vietnam hopes to join by 2005. If Hanoi's membership isn't sealed by then, Vietnam will still face quotas from the U.S.
The absence of upstream industries could hobble Southeast Asian textile and garment companies. China, India and Pakistan have their own domestic cotton industries, giving them an advantage over Southeast Asian countries, which must import raw materials, says Robin Anson, managing director of Textiles Intelligence, a London-based publisher of business information on the global fiber, textile and apparel industries.
"I think all countries in the region will suffer. There are brakes on the supplies, and when you take the brakes off, nobody is going to hold back. You're going to get oversupply and prices are going to fall," says Mr. Anson. "It's going to be a question of which countries are best able to survive. The ones that will are those with an integrated supply chain, low labor costs and a fairly efficient production system."
Tumbling Prices
Malaysian manufacturers are already feeling the impact of tumbling prices. The value of the country's garment and textile exports fell last year to 11.7 billion ringgit ($3.08 billion), 13% below what they were two years earlier. The Malaysian Knitwear Manufacturing Association blames stiff global competition, which has driven down prices in markets such as the U.S. by about 30% in the past five years.
Regionalizing operations could help save Malaysian companies, but it could also slowly choke the domestic industry if downstream suppliers in Malaysia start to go under, says the association's president, Seow Hon Cheong, who also serves as director of Trans Pacific Industries Sdn. Bhd., a manufacturer of sleepwear for a U.S. company.
"So far, we're lucky. They're scaling back, rather than closing down. None of us are thinking of relocating entirely," says Mr. Seow. "But most companies are planning to do at least the lower-end work in a lower-cost developing country."
Prolexus already is. The company, which posted $45 million in revenues in the year ended July 31, 2002, and makes clothes for Fila, OshKosh and Puma as well as Nike and Gap, began outsourcing orders five years ago to a company in Sri Lanka. That company now accounts for about 17% of Prolexus sales.
Six months ago, Mr. Lau of Prolexus began searching for a partner in northeastern China, where wages remain lower than in prosperous coastal provinces further south. He is close to finalizing a joint venture agreement with a mill in the northeastern city of Shenyang, and is looking for a second partner further south, in the provinces of Jiangsu or Zhejiang.
"We can't compete on labor costs. Labor at the [northeastern] China factory costs 50% less than [in] Malaysia," says Mr. Lau.
Prolexus doesn't plan to scale down its manufacturing operations at home just yet, but the nature of the work done there will change, Mr. Lau says. The Malaysian operations will increasingly focus on marketing, product design and on high-end orders that call for expensive, advanced materials, such as fabrics that offer untraviolet-ray protection and that require higher-skilled workers. "Our workers here are more skilled. In terms of efficiency, productivity, we're still ahead," Mr. Lau says.
Two years ago, Prolexus executives started looking for new ways to ratchet up that productivity to prepare for the post-quota era. Half the factory was already semiautomated with a computerized moving hanger system that delivers each garment piece to the right seamstress, then moves it along to the next one. Prolexus added new machinery, including giant, automated cutters that cut thick bales of fabric into ready-to-sew pieces, and scanners that detect broken needles in finished clothing. It invested 1.5 million ringgit in enterprise resource planning software, which allows the company to electronically take and track orders and payments. The software also allows Prolexus to track customers' stock and generate orders automatically, an arrangement option that it is now discussing with Nike.
Streamlining Production
Mr. Lau also created a four-person industrial-engineering department to help streamline production. The engineers gave factory workers swiveling ergonomic chairs that not only reduced fatigue but also helped shave crucial seconds from the time it takes to turn and pick up a garment piece from one pile and drop it onto another, after a particular bit of work is done. They also introduced a training program to teach new workers and upgrade the skills of existing ones. Such efforts have improved productivity by about 10% to 15% in the past two years, Mr. Lau says.
Investing abroad has brought its own perils. Two months ago, Prolexus decided to shut a factory it had set up in Bangladesh two years earlier that had proved unprofitable. Labor costs in Bangladesh are a fraction of Malaysia's, but the country's poor infrastructure doomed the investment, Prolexus executives say.
"It's difficult to get things like a telephone line or water supply. There are constant blackouts," says Willie Gan, executive director of finance at Prolexus. "And then there's port congestion. Sometimes it would take a week to clear our goods."
Prolexus executives even remain wary of investing in China. Mr. Lau worries that as anti-China sentiment grows among U.S. manufacturers, Washington could slap new trade barriers on the flood of Chinese imports into the U.S. A coalition of U.S. industry associations is already pushing for some sort of protection on quota-free items like dressing gowns and brassieres. And if Washington succeeds in its bid to force China to revalue its currency, the cost benefits that China would provide to Prolexus could evaporate overnight.
Labor costs in China might be half of those in Malaysia, but factory labor comprises just 10% of Prolexus's total costs. Material, which is sourced from around the region, accounts for 40%, and overhead, including machinery, another 40%. Mr. Lau estimates that his China investment, including the lower labor cost and slightly lower overhead, will deliver a 15% savings, a figure that has to be weighed against a potential jump in duties.
"Quotas are one thing, but duties are another," he says. "It's something we need to watch."
Prolexus executives, meanwhile, are keeping an eye out for investment opportunities in any countries that are likely to strike individual trade agreements with key export markets. Sri Lanka, for example, is in the midst of negotiating its own free-trade agreement with the U.S. It is unclear how the textile industry will be affected, but Prolexus's outsourcing deal gives the company a foot in the door, Mr. Lau says.
The Malaysian Textile Manufacturing Association is leading its members on a trade mission to Sri Lanka in November. Mr. Lau plans to go along to look for potential joint-venture partners. "There's a lot of things to consider: political issues, economic issues, foreign-currency issues," he says. "You've got to spread your risk."
纺织业变革激励东南亚国家改革
十多名身著穆斯林头巾的妇女正在Prolexus Bhd.培训室内嗡嗡作响的缝纫机前忙碌著，练习缝制楼下工厂正在生产的耐克(Nike)和Gap品牌服饰所必备的极为复杂的技艺。
这家工厂坐落在马来西亚南部一个小镇内，四周群山环抱。公司为美国知名品牌缝制服装已经有27年的历史。但工厂从5年前开始将一些订单外包给一家斯里兰卡公司，还即将与中国达成组建合资企业的协议。很快该公司所有基本缝纫工作都将外包，只有高端工作留在马来西亚国内进行。这家工厂最终还能保留多少工作岗位将取决于公司提高生产力及技术的能力。
Prolexus的董事总经理Lau Mong Ying表示，所有这些都是为了赢得竞争优势。马来西亚工人技术熟练，工厂会利用这一优势。但如果希望提高竞争力，工厂就不得不向地区性公司转变。该工厂及另一家位于北方槟城工厂的雇员总计为2,000名。
2001年中国加入了世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization, 简称WTO)，而且WTO成员国也即将取消纺织品配额制度，这些因素正在重新塑造东南亚的纺织业。这些进展迫使东南亚纺织品公司将基础工作转移到劳动力成本较低的国家，如中国，并努力提高本国工人的生产力及技能。
1994年WTO成员国同意在2004年底前逐步取消纺织品配额。自1974年欧洲及北美各国实施纺织品配额制度以来，这种制度就一直限制著全球服装贸易发展。预计这将使中国在服装领域的统治地位更为巩固，中国具备规模经济优势、低劳动力成本及从棉花种植到服装设计在内的完整产业链。世界银行(World Bank)预计，2010年中国在全球服装出口中所占比例将较目前的20%增长一倍以上至47%。
最近几年中国早已在几个获免配额资格的产品上(如胸罩及晨衣)大有斩获。2002年中国对美国的纺织品及服装出口额增长一倍以上达到49.6亿美元，美国制造业贸易行动联合会(American Manufacturing Trade Action Coalition)预计今年该数字还将增长一倍。
这种趋势促使类似Prolexus这样的公司重新思考其传统生产模式。过去几年中大约有40%的马来西亚大型服装生产商在中国或柬埔寨等国开设了工厂，以期利用那里较低的劳动力成本优势。
中国对纺织品及服装市场的统治地位甚至还挤占了其他低成本国家的市场。例如柬埔寨纺织业就一直集中生产那些诸如针织女装等中国受配额限制的产品。
配额制度的取消对这些国家来说无异于一则噩耗。世界银行资深经济学家爱琳娜?伊安朝维垂纳(Elena Ianchovichina)表示，她对柬埔寨尤为担心。柬埔寨纺织业本来就在相当狭窄的范围内求生，在取消配额后它不得不与中国在原本不存在竞争的领域展开肉搏战。柬埔寨刚刚获准加入WTO，其邻国越南希望能于2005年加入WTO。如果届时越南未能获准加入WTO，则仍将面临来自美国的配额限制。
总部位于伦敦的全球化纤、纺织及服装行业信息出版商Textiles Intelligence的董事总经理罗宾?安森(Robin Anson)表示，缺乏上游产业将成为东南亚纺织品及服装行业的羁绊。中国、印度及巴基斯坦都拥有自己的棉花产业，这使它们比需要进口原材料的东南亚国家更具优势。
安森认为，东南亚地区所有国家都将遭受打击。现在对供应有一个人为的限制，但当取消这种限制后，没人能再对供应进行控制。市场将出现供应过剩及价格下降。现在的问题是，哪个国家最有可能生存下来？答案可能是那些具备完整供应链、较低劳动力成本及相当效率生产系统的国家。
马来西亚生产商早已感受到价格下跌的影响。该国去年服装及纺织品出口额降至117亿林吉特（30.8亿美元），较两年前水平下降了13%。马来西亚针织厂商会(Malaysian Knitwear Manufacturing Association)将此归咎于激烈的全球竞争，竞争导致诸如美国等市场的纺织品价格在过去5年中下降了30%。
马来西亚针织厂商会总裁Seow Hon Cheong称，地区性经营可能会帮助挽救马来西亚公司，但如果下游供应商破产，则此举可能也会慢慢扼杀国内纺织业。Seow还是一家为美国公司生产睡衣的服装厂Trans Pacific Industries Sdn. Bhd.的董事。
Seow称，迄今为止马来西亚纺织业还算是幸运。那些下游供应商仅仅是减产，还未破产。没有一家马来西亚纺织品生产商打算将生产全部外包，但大多数生产商计划至少将低端工作转移至劳动力成本较低的发展中国家。
Prolexus早已采取了这种做法。该公司截至2002年7月31日的财政年度收入4,500万美元，公司为Fila、OshKosh、Puma及耐克和Gap等代作服装，公司于5年前开始向斯里兰卡一家公司外包业务，目前后者产量占Prolexus销量的17%。
半年前，公司董事总经理Lau开始在中国东北地区寻找合作伙伴，该地区劳工工资仍低于南部沿海省份。他即将与位于沈阳市的工厂达成合资企业协议，并开始在南部地区如江苏省及浙江省寻找第二个合作伙伴。
Lau称，Prolexus没法在劳动力成本方面与这些发展中国家竞争。中国东北地区劳动力成本较马来西亚低50%以上。
Lau表示，Prolexus目前尚无计划缩减马来西亚国内的生产规模，但国内生产的性质将有所转变。马来西亚国内的生产将逐渐转向市场推广、产品设计及高端订单上。马来西亚国内工人技术更为熟练，而且在效率及生产力方面依然领先。
两年前Prolexus管理人员开始寻求提高生产力的新方法，以便为取消配额做好准备。工厂一半已经实现了半自动化，电脑控制的移动衣挂系统将不同原料传送到不同工种工人的手中，进行流水作业。Prolexus还新增了设备，其中包括巨型自动剪裁机(这种机器可以将成捆的布料裁减成片)及检测成衣中是否有断针的扫描仪。公司还斥资150万林吉特购入企业资源进度软件，该软件可以使公司自动追踪订单及付款。该软件还可以使公司追踪客户库存并自动创建订单。公司目前正在与耐克就达成类似协议进行磋商。
Lau还组建了一个四人工程设计部门，以帮助公司精简生产流程。
在国外的投资也充满风险。两个月前，Prolexus决定关闭两年前在孟加拉国设立的一家工厂，该公司一直亏损。孟加拉国的劳动力成本仅为马来西亚的一小部分，但孟加拉国落后的基础设施注定了此项投资的失败结局。
Prolexus负责财务的执行董事Willie Gan称，在孟加拉国获得诸如电话线及自来水供应都非常困难，而且其港口经常发生拥堵，有些时候需要一周时间才能发货。
Prolexus管理人士也对在中国投资保持谨慎。Lau担心，随著美国生产商反华情绪高涨，美国政府可能会设置新的贸易壁垒，阻止中国产品源源不断流入美国。美工一个行业协会已在推动对诸如晨衣及胸罩等非配额产品采取某些保护措施。而且如果美国政府在迫使中国重新评估人民币价值的战役中获胜，那么Prolexus从中国获得的成本节约收益可能将在一夜间化为乌有。
虽然中国的劳动力成本仅仅为马来西亚的一半，但劳动力成本仅占Prolexus总成本的10%。原材料占40%，包括设备在内的一般性经营支出占40%。Lau预计，在中国的投资，包括劳动力成本降低及一般经营支出下降在内，公司将节约15%的成本，但该数据还要受关税可能上调的打击。
他称，配额是一回事，关税是另外一码事。这是公司需要警惕的事情。
与此同时，Prolexus的管理人士还要留意在其他国家的投资会议，这些国家可能会与某些主要出口市场达成自由贸易协定。例如斯里兰卡，该国正在与美国就自由贸易协定进行谈判。此举对纺织业的影响如何尚不明了，但Prolexus与斯里兰卡工厂的外包协议使公司有了立足之地。
马来西亚针织厂商会将于11月份率领由其成员组成的贸易代表团前往斯里兰卡。Lau打算随同前往，以寻找潜在的合作伙伴。
Lau表示，要考虑的事情很多：政治问题、经济问题及外汇问题等等，你必须分散风险。
