Economic Monitor: Singapore's Army Of Unemployed
At a tribute gala dinner celebrating Lee Kuan Yew's 80th birthday on September 16, Singapore's first prime minister urged his countrymen to be optimistic about their future. "The present pessimism of the faint-hearted, reflected in the media, that Singapore has seen its best days, that the music has stopped and the party is over, is totally unfounded," he told his guests. "That is not how I see the future of Singapore."
Lee's rousing words may offer some comfort. Butwith unemployment at near 20-year highs, many Singaporeans find it hard to be cheerful. Total employment, or the number of available jobs, contracted by 25,963 in the second quarter, signaling "the steepest decline on record since the mid-80s recession," according to the Ministry of Manpower. The unemployment rate reached 4.5% in the first and second quarters, but many analysts believe it will rise to 5.5% later this year--the highest rate since late 1986.
Stung by the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and the war in Iraq, Singapore has cut its economic forecast for the year to between zero and 1%. The economy shrank an annualized 11.4% in the second quarter from the first, its worst performance on record.
Nonoil domestic exports grew just 3.5% year on year in August. The deceleration was largely attributable to reduced sales to the United States and Malaysia. Shipments of electronics exports, Singapore's top export earner, declined by 6% year on year in August, following modest gains in the preceding two months. HSBC analysts point out that Singapore accounted for just 5.7% of total U.S. electronics imports in the second quarter, compared with a peak of 13.4% in the same quarter in 1997.
The good news: nonelectronic exports, which include pharmaceuticals and petrochemicals, continued to show solid growth. Still, even in these sectors there was a slowdown in the year-on-year growth rate, to 16.7% in August from 22.3% in July.
These slowdowns impact unemployment, some of which is structural as Singapore makes the transition to a higher-value-added economy. But the loss of jobs in the electronics sector is not being offset by new job creation in the chemicals and pharmaceutical sectors. According to HSBC figures, between 1996 and 2002, 40,000 jobs were lost in the electronics sector, compared with roughly 3,000 added in chemicals and pharmaceuticals.
Singapore sees restructuring of wages and costs as critical in efforts to regain an edge in the global economy. In August, the government made deep cuts in the state-run pension system, effectively reducing workers' pay and saving businesses about S$1.3 billion ($752 million) annually. The Central Provident Fund is a nest egg for retirement, but most Singaporeans use the savings to buy government-subsidized housing, education and some health care. The cut in contributions to the CPF was followed by a S$1 billion package of rebates and concessions to help Singaporeans hurt by a slowing economy. Part of the package is a S$40 million fund to help the unemployed for up to six months.
Much hope for Singapore rides on a robust recovery in the U.S. But for now, just how long it will take for Singapore's economy to make a comeback is anybody's guess. "The slowdown has ended but robust recovery isn't here yet," Moh Siong Sim, an economist at Citigroup wrote in a report in late September. While the economy is gaining strength, he adds, it's at a "modest pace."
新加坡的失业大军
新加坡首任总理李光耀在9月16日庆祝他80岁寿辰的晚宴致词中，促请国人对经济前景保持乐观心态。他对出席宴会的各界人士表示，“当前一些悲观言论时时见诸报端，认为新加坡经济发展的黄金时代已经过去，音乐停止了，派对结束了。这种看法毫无根据。”他说，“在我眼里，新加坡的未来不是这样的。”
李光耀提振士气的讲话可能会给人些许安慰。但目前新加坡的失业率已接近20年的高点，许多新加坡人很难高兴起来。据新加坡人力部(Ministry of Manpower)公布的数据，该国第二季度就业总人数减少了25,963人，是20世纪80年代中期经济衰退以来最大幅度的下滑。第一季度和第二季度的失业率为4.5%，但许多分析师预计今年晚些时候失业率可能上升至5.5%，达到1986年底以来的最高水平。
受严重急性呼吸道综合症(Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome)爆发和伊拉克战争的拖累，新加坡政府将今年的经济增长预期下调到零至1%。第二季度该国经济较上一季度以折合成年率11.4%的速度下滑，是有史以来最差的纪录。
8月份新加坡非石油产品出口额较上年同期仅增长了3.5%。出口速度放缓主要归因于该国向美国和马来西亚出口减少。新加坡出口的主要利润来源－－电子产品出口8月份较上年同期下降6%，而此前两个月都呈现温和增长。汇丰控股(HSBC)的分析师指出，第二季度美国进口电子产品的5.7%来自新加坡，而1997年第二季度这一比例曾达到13.4%的峰值。
也有一些好消息：医药和石化等非电子产品出口继续呈现强劲增长。但即使在这些领域，同比增幅也有所放缓，8月份非电子产品出口同比增幅从7月份的22.3%下降到16.7%。
出口减缓使新加坡的就业状况进一步恶化。失业人数增加的部分原因是结构性的，是新加坡向价值更高的经济体系过度的产物。但化学和医药行业新增的就业机会无法抵消电子行业就业人数减少的趋势。根据汇丰控股的数据，在1996年至2002年期间，电子行业削减了4万个就业机会，同期化学和医药领域新增3万个就业机会。
新加坡把薪资和成本重组看作是该国重新赢得全球经济领先地位的关键。新加坡政府8月份大幅削减了全国的养老金系统，使企业每年在工人薪酬支出方面节省了约13亿新元(7.52亿美元)。新加坡的中央公积金计划(Central Provident Fund)是该国的退休储蓄计划，但大部分新加坡人用这笔资金购买政府补贴的住房，或用作教育和健康保健。在削减中央公积金计划之前，政府为减轻经济疲软给国民造成的负担，曾推出总计10亿新元的返还和减让优惠措施，其中有4,000万新元资金用于为失业者提供最长6个月的救济。
新加坡经济重新腾飞的希望主要寄托在美国经济复苏上。但目前谁也无法预言新加坡经济到底还要多久才能再现辉煌。花旗集团(Citigroup)的经济学家Moh Siong Sim在9月底的一份报告中写道，“经济已经停止滑坡，但是强劲的经济复苏尚未开始。”他说，尽管新加坡经济开始呈现增长势头，但“步子仍不够大”。
