India Is Poised for Faster Growth
Is India finally set to join China as a powerful new economic growth engine for Asia? Judging by the speed at which economists are ratcheting up growth estimates here, it certainly looks that way.
Government officials are predicting that India's inflation-adjusted growth for the current fiscal year, which ends March 31, may "significantly exceed" New Delhi's earlier forecast of 6% growth and could approach 8%. Private investment firms concur, estimating growth of as much as 7.5% and citing the potential for even faster expansion down the road.
With economies in the U.S., Europe and Latin America still wobbly, India's emergence could be one of the world's most important economic-trend stories over the next two decades. More immediately, the growth explosions in India and China, the world's two most populous nations, signal an inevitable changing of the guard in Asia. East Asia's traditional tiger economics, in countries such as South Korea, have seen their export-driven models challenged by sluggish global trade.
Indians increasingly feel that their country has chosen the right balance of growing its domestic economy and its export economy at the same time. And no country, many Indians feel, is better positioned to profit from the global boom in information-technology services than their own.
Foreign capital is increasingly taking notice of India's growth. International portfolio investors have poured $3.65 billion into Indian equities so far this year -- up from $763 million for all of 2002 -- helping the country's main index rise by 50% since late April.
At the same time, private-equity firms, mainly from the U.S. and Europe, have injected $300 million to $500 million into Indian companies since January, according to the Indian Venture Capital Association, with the bulk of it in long-term capital commitments. Blue-chip U.S. investment houses such as Warburg Pincus, Citibank's private-equity arm and Carlyle Group are among those who have recently bought stakes in Indian companies, aiming to tap into the country's growing consumer class and its emergence as a center for software development and information-technology services.
"My bet is that India will begin to outperform China within the next five years," says Rajiv Lall of Warburg Pincus in New York, whose firm has invested roughly $600 million in India since 1993. In fact, Warburg Pincus is one of the few Wall Street firms that have placed a bigger bet on India than China. Warburg is currently in discussions to purchase a major stake in closely held food concern Radhakrishna Foodland Ltd., and Mr. Lall says his firm should close a number of Indian transactions in "the near future."
Positive Cyclical Factors
Economists cite several cyclical factors as contributors to India's growth this year. The country is enjoying an excellent monsoon season after last year's drought, providing hundreds of millions of farmers with more cash to buy everything from cellular phones to motorcycles. Meanwhile, companies are again investing significantly in their new production facilities, after many suffered from overcapacity following an anticipated boom in the mid-1990s that never materialized. A July survey of business confidence by a leading Indian institute showed the most optimistic outlook since mid-1995.
Important structural changes in the Indian economy are also driving consumption and investment patterns. Construction of everything from ports to telecommunications networks has accelerated and Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's support for a $10 billion nationwide road-construction program is expected to be a boon for cement and steel companies. Banks are reporting a 30% rise in loans to consumers and a 30%-35% increase in home mortgages, as they shift from focusing on corporate loans to the country's growing middle class, an estimated 250 million Indians.
These trends are filtering through to the wider economy. Car sales, for example, jumped 26% for April to August this year compared with the same period of 2002. "There are only six cars for every thousand people in India ... We can only grow," says Jagdish Khattar, chief executive of India's largest car manufacturer, Maruti Udyog Ltd., which produces 600,000 units annually.
As Indian companies reduce costs and focus on competing with foreign firms in India's increasingly open economy, their earnings are also improving. Investment banks such as Citigroup's Smith Barney are projecting earnings growth of 25% to 30% among top-tier Indian companies, as they benefit from cheaper credit and growing demand for their services and products from foreign companies. In addition to operating call-centers and back-office operations, Indian companies also are increasingly being tapped to produce high-end products such as auto components and pharmaceuticals.
"In our opinion, the frontline Indian companies have never been in better shape since liberalization began in 1991," declares a September report on the India economy by Smith Barney.
Despite such optimism, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank warn that India will struggle to reach its 8% annual growth target set out in the government's current Five-Year Plan without more rigorous reforms. They point to New Delhi's yawning budget deficit, which stood at more than 10% of gross domestic product in the past fiscal year. The World Bank projects that without strong efforts by New Delhi to raise tax revenues and cut spending on subsidies and civil-service salaries, the rising debt could stifle expansion and cap annual growth at 5%.
Impact of Debt Load
The World Bank and IMF aren't predicting a balance-of-payments crisis for India, as the government is holding $85 billion in foreign reserves and India is running a healthy current-account surplus. But World Bank officials do say New Delhi's debt load -- owed mainly to domestic lenders -- is undercutting the government's ability to fund new infrastructure and development programs. "Interest payments are crowding out public spending," says Mark Baird, who wrote this year's World Bank report on the Indian economy.
The World Bank and others are also pushing New Delhi to move more aggressively to open up the economy. Despite recent initiatives, they say India still maintains among the highest average tariff rates in the developing world. Steps to privatize state-owned companies have faced stiff resistance from labor unions and political parties. And caps on foreign investment in sectors such as retailing and the media have denied India a potentially hefty inflow of new funds.
"In India, it's the sectors where the government isn't interfering that are thriving," says Rishi Sahai, a principal founder of the Indian Venture Capital Association.
印度经济将驶入快车道
印度是否将步中国之后尘，成为引领亚洲经济发展的新的火车头？从经济学家们不断上调印度经济增长预期值的事实来看，这一点是毫无疑问的。
印度政府官员们预计，扣除通货膨胀因素，印度本财政年度（截至明年3月31日）的经济增长率也许会“大大超过”原先估计的6%，而接近8%。私营投资公司也持类似观点，认为印度经济在今后一段时间内可能会发展得更快，并预计经济增长率将高达7.5%。
目前，美国、欧洲和拉丁美洲的经济依旧萎靡不振，而印度的崛起将成为今后二十年内全球最重要的经济发展趋势之一。当下，作为全世界人口最多的两个国家，印度和中国经济的迅猛发展意味著亚洲的经济龙头不可避免地发生了变化。包括韩国在内的东亚传统经济强国发现，全球贸易疲软对他们的出口导向型经济构成了严重挑战。
印度人越来越感到，自己的国家在发展国内经济与外向型经济之间取得了很好的平衡。许多印度人认为，全球信息技术产业的兴旺发达给将给本国带来的巨大收益是其他任何国家都望尘莫及的。
外国资本也越来越重视印度的崛起。今年以来，海外投资者们已在印度股票市场上投入了36.5亿美元，使印度的主要股票指数从4月下旬以来上涨了50%。相比之下，去年全年的投入只有7.63亿美元。
与此同时，根据印度风险投资协会(Indian Venture Capital Association)的统计，主要来自美国和欧洲的私人投资公司今年对印度企业的投资已达到了3亿至5亿美元，其中大部份为长期投资。美国的大型投资机构，如Warburg Pincus、花旗银行(Citibank)下属的私人投资公司以及Carlyle Group等，近期都买入了印度公司的股票，试图瞄准印度不断壮大的消费群体。这些公司也注意到，印度已成为电脑软件开发和信息技术服务的中心。
Warburg Pincus驻纽约的拉吉夫?拉利(Rajiv Lall)说：他认为，印度在今后五年内将超过中国。自1993年来，该公司对印度的投资已达到6亿美元左右。实际上，Warburg Pincus是华尔街上少数几家认为印度的发展会超过中国的公司之一。该公司目前正在进行谈判，打算购入由少数股东持有的私人食品公司Radhakrishna Foodland Ltd的控股权。拉利表示，他的公司近期会完成一些投资印度的交易。
有利的周期性因素
经济学家们认为，几个有利的周期性因素对印度今年的经济增长发挥了重要作用。继去年的乾旱之后，印度今年进入了雨季，这为上千万农民带来了更多的现金，让他们买得起从手机到摩托车在内的各种商品。此外，企业如今又再次开始大量投资，添置新的生产设备。在九十年代中期，人们认为经济会出现高增长，但这一预言并没有变为现实，致使许多企业遭受了产能过剩带来的损失。印度一家知名机构在今年7月份对商业信心所做的调查显示，目前的情况是自1995年来最乐观的。
印度经济结构的重要转型也是推动消费和投资上升的主要因素。从港口到电信网络的各种建设项目都在蒸蒸日上。印度总理阿塔尔?比哈里?瓦杰帕伊(Atal Bihari Vajpayee)对耗资100亿美元的全国性公路建设计划也给予了支持，预计这将给水泥和钢铁行业带来福音。随著银行业把信贷重点从企业转向国内日益壮大的中产阶级，银行的消费贷款也上升了30%，其中30%-35%来自房屋抵押贷款。目前，印度中产阶级的人数约为2.5亿。
上述趋势正渗透到印度经济的其他领域。例如，与去年同期相比，今年4月至8月的汽车销量增长了26%。印度最大的汽车制造商Maruti Udyog Ltd的首席执行长贾德迪?哈塔(Jagdish Khattar)说，在印度，每一千人才拥有六辆车，我们就是要发展。该公司目前的年产量为60万辆。
随著印度经济日益开放，印度企业不断降低成本，试图与在国内的外国公司一争高下，他们的收益也有所改善。花旗集团(Citigroup)旗下的投资银行所罗门美邦(Smith Barney)预计，印度一流公司的收益增幅为25%至30%，原因是他们的信贷成本更低了，而外国公司对其产品和服务的需求则更大了。除了提供客户服务中心和后勤支持外，印度企业也越来越多地参与到高端产品的生产活动中，如生产汽车部件和药物等。
所罗门美邦在九月份公布的印度经济报告中称，在他们看来，自印度1991年开始实行经济自由化以来，印度一流企业的状况从未像现在这样好过。
尽管如此乐观，但国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)和世界银行(the World Bank)都警告说，若不推行更有力的改革，印度恐怕难以实现政府五年规划中提出的8%的年经济增长目标。他们指出，印度的财政预算赤字很高，去年的数字超过了国民生产总值(GDP)的10%。世界银行认为，如果印度政府不采取强有力的措施来提高税收、削减补贴以及公务员的工资，该国不断上升的赤字将遏止经济发展，使印度的年经济增长率不超过5%。
负债的冲击
世界银行和IMF并不认为印度的国际收支出现了危机，因为印度政府拥有850亿美元的外汇储备，经常项目也处于顺差。但世界银行的官员们指出，印度政府的大量债务─主要是国内欠债─削弱了政府为新的基础建设项目和发展计划提供资金的能力。马克?贝尔德(Mark Baird)是世界银行发布的今年印度经济报告的作者。他说，利息支付挤占了公共建设资金。
世界银行和其他组织敦促印度政府更加积极地推进经济开放的步伐。尽管印度政府最近推出了新举措，但这些机构表示，印度仍是发展中国家中平均关税最高的国家之一。而国有企业私有化的进程也面临来自工会和其他政党的强大阻力。此外，对零售和媒体等行业的外商投资最高限额也阻碍了大量潜在资金流入印度。
印度风险投资协会的主要创始人雷什?沙哈(Rishi Sahai)说，在印度，发展迅猛的行业是那些没有受到政府干预的领域。
