中国入世两年，外国非难不减

In Shift, U.S. Investors Intensify Criticism of China Trade Policies

- Some of China's biggest defenders, foreign investors, are increasingly turning into critics of Beijing, complaining it isn't fulfilling commitments it made under its historic entry into the World Trade Organization two years ago.

The criticism about China's WTO compliance comes at a delicate time. In recent weeks, China has also come under growing fire on trade issues from U.S. lawmakers, with both Republicans and Democrats criticizing its soaring bilateral trade surplus with the U.S. and blaming Beijing for lost manufacturing jobs. Democratic presidential hopefuls have also been talking up the matter, suggesting that a harder line toward China could become an issue for next year's U.S. election debates.

Now U.S. business leaders are joining the Beijing-bashing, with soybeans as a flashpoint. In a particularly contentious incident, China's quarantine inspectors called in diplomats from the U.S., Brazil and Argentina two months ago. The message: China would halt cargoes from some of the world's biggest soybean exporters because they were contaminated by a fungus, according to two persons who attended the meeting. WTO rules permit such measures for health reasons, and while the notice wasn't put in writing, word spread and cautious buyers in China started canceling foreign orders.

American suppliers suspected the ban had another motive -- protectionism. U.S. soybean exports to China more than doubled to $1.5 billion in the first eight months of this year. "They say that soybean imports have phytophtera, a fungal disease," says John Killmer, China country chief for giant American agriproducts company Monsanto Co. "This disease is endemic to China and every place on earth where soybeans are grown."

What's more, the Americans say, the ban coincided with the start of China's domestic soybean harvest. When U.S. officials raised the issue in meetings last month in Washington, China's agricultural officials stood firm. "Basically, the Chinese played hardball and said 'We don't want your phytophtera,' " said a diplomat in Beijing familiar with the talks.

Chinese officials have rejected charges they aren't living up to their WTO commitments. "We can't accept such talk at all," says Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Kong Quan.

To be sure, China has made significant progress on WTO issues. It has generally reduced import tariffs on schedule. Beijing has allowed securities and fund-management firms to enter once-off-limits markets through joint ventures. And the Ministry of Justice is moving faster than expected to process applications by foreign law firms seeking to open offices in cities other than Beijing and Shanghai.

Still, both U.S. and European business groups published sharply worded reports in recent weeks that express disappointment at China's apparent backpedaling on promises it made to enter the WTO. Some areas, including foreign farm goods, face more market barriers than they did before China joined WTO, say industry executives.

"We have asked ourselves why things have slowed down this year," said Jim Gradoville, a vice president in Asia for Motorola Inc. and lead author of a critical WTO report from the American Chamber of Commerce in China. "Does this generation of leaders share the same commitment to WTO as the previous leadership?"

The WTO questions come on top of pressure regarding China's currency policies. U.S. critics complain that Beijing has kept the yuan from rising against the dollar, giving Chinese companies an unfair advantage over U.S. companies. Last month, the U.S. Commerce Department announced it was forming a special team to focus on China's trade practices.

"There is a crescendo of rising concern about China's imports and its WTO record," says Myron Brilliant, vice president for Asia at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington. "In this environment, it's not the time for China to stall or be seen as not making enough progress...."

Many countries, including the U.S., resort to so-called nontariff barriers to protect domestic markets. Japan, for one, recently banned Chinese spinach, citing heavy doses of pesticide, and frozen shrimp, after detecting traces of an antibiotic. Last year, the European Union barred several Chinese foods. China then barred EU cosmetics containing animal byproducts, citing concerns about Mad Cow disease. The EU has since brokered a partial end to the cosmetics ban.

Some say China is simply learning the tit-for-tat of international trade disputes. Indeed, Chinese officials say technical trade barriers imposed by other countries, including stricter quarantine standards, affected 71% of China's exporters and caused losses of $17 billion in 2002. And they say there's nothing to the notion they aren't meeting WTO obligations.

Even so, many foreign companies grouse about being kept out of a market that until recently they extolled. "The WTO 'honeymoon' is over," the American Chamber of Commerce said in its recent report on China. In an annual membership survey, the chamber said the portion of U.S. companies that believed China's WTO membership would be positive for their business had dropped to just over half, from 80% last year.

Back in 2001 Ford Motor Co., General Motors Corp. and other foreign car makers were elated when China entered the WTO. Beyond the cars themselves, China's WTO agreement promised to open a lucrative new area: automobile financing. In the U.S. and Europe, about 70% of customers seek loans to pay for cars, compared with about 15% in China -- suggesting lots of room for growth.

Nearly two years later, GM and Ford are selling plenty of cars but remain excluded from the lucrative financing business. On Friday, the China Banking Regulatory Commission finally issued long-delayed regulations allowing foreigners into the car-finance business. The commission said the rules "signify China's commitment to fulfilling its WTO entry obligations," according to a statement on its Web site.

"Stalling or not," says Kenneth Hsu, a Ford spokesman in Beijing. "It's been way beyond the promised time." As for Friday's announcement, he says, "we are still studying the contents."

Business groups are now awaiting new rules that will govern trade and distribution in China, which could give additional signals on Beijing's trade stance. In December, China is supposed to permit majority foreign ownership in trade and distribution ventures and widen the number of products foreign companies can sell in the country. Yet foreign auto makers are already ringing alarms over a draft policy requiring them to set up two distribution systems, one for domestic vehicles, the other for imports..

One agency -- the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, or Aqsiq -- has emerged as a potent symbol of the barriers to entering China's markets. Since China joined the WTO, Aqsiq has imposed a series of safety and quality standards that Chinese officials say are essential to certifying product safety.

Beyond the soybean ban, Aqsiq is also behind a dispute over cotton. The U.S. cotton industry warns that on Jan. 1 China is to implement a new inspection regime for raw cotton that could block imports. Aqsiq notified the WTO in July 2002 that it would adopt two new tests that involve checking the length of the cotton fibers. The U.S. industry says no such reliable tests exist.

Both Chinese and foreign analysts say Beijing is clearly determined to protect elements of the economy -- state enterprises and farmers -- that are most vulnerable to competition. When state companies need research-and-development funds, the Ministry of Finance funnels cash through a separate organization, breaching the spirit of WTO rules. "If the WTO says we can't do it this way," says a ministry official, "we just change the method."
中国入世两年，外国非难不减

两个月前，中国检疫官员召集美国、巴西和阿根廷的外交官员举行会晤，会晤的核心议题是大豆。中国已经成为美国大豆的一个繁荣的出口市场。随著对豆油和牲畜饲料需求的大幅增长，今年前8个月，美国向中国的大豆出口额较上年同期增长了一倍多，达到15亿美元。

与会的两名官员说，中国官员们在会上表示，因世界某些最大的大豆出口国的大豆感染了某种菌类，中国将停止从这些国家进口大豆。世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization, 简称WTO)对这种因健康原因而限制进口的做法是允许的。中国并没有下发书面通知，但消息还是传开了。慎重的中国买主开始取消向外国公司进口大豆的订单。

美国大豆供应商怀疑，中国这种做法背后另有一个动机：那就是贸易保护主义。美国农业巨头孟山都公司(Monsanto Co.)大中华区总裁约翰?吉尔摩(John Killmer)说：“他们说进口来的大豆感染了一种蚜虫霉菌病，但这种疾病对中国及世界上任何有大豆种植的地方都是一种地方病。”而且，美国人认为中国开始减少大豆进口的时候正是国内黑龙江省大豆丰收的时候。美国贸易官员在上个月于华盛顿举行的会议上提出了这个问题，但中国农业官员的态度十分坚定。

一位驻北京的知情外交官说：“中国官员的态度基本上是很强硬的，并声称他们可不想感染蚜虫霉菌病”。

随著美国和中国之间贸易冲突的升级，原来美国一些支持中国的企业人士成为批评中国最猛烈的人。最近几周，美国、欧洲行业组织都公布了措辞严厉、主旨相同的报告，指出中国履行入世承诺的进程出现倒退，这让他们深感失望。有些行业管理人士表示，大豆等外国农产品在中国入世后遇到的市场进入壁垒甚至比入世前还要严重。

摩托罗拉公司(Motorola Inc.)亚洲地区副总裁关德辉(Jim Gradoville)说：“我们也问过自己，为什么事情的进展在今年开始放慢，新一代中国领导人会像老一代一样履行入世承诺么？”他也是美国中国商会(American Chamber of Commerce)一份批评中国的报告的第一撰稿人。

对中国履行入世承诺的指责恰好出现在中美贸易关系紧张时期。美国持批评态度的人士上个月就指出美国对中国的贸易逆差激增，对人民币汇率提出质疑，还将北京的贸易做法与美国的经济困境联系起来。上个月，美国商务部(U.S. Commerce Department)宣布要针对中国成立一个不公平贸易行为调查组。

美国商会的亚洲副总裁麦隆?布里廉特(Myron Brilliant)说：“中国对进口的限制及其履行入世承诺的情况，越来越让人感到担忧，在这样的背景下，中国停滞不前或者是被视为没有努力履行承诺就显得不是时候。”

包括美国在内的很多国家都是通过所谓非关税壁垒来保护本国市场。日本最近停止从中国进口菠菜和冻虾，原因是中国菠菜所含的农药太多，而冻虾又被检验出有抗生素的残留。欧盟(European Union)去年禁止从中国进口一系列食品。中国随即以担心感染疯牛病为由，禁止进口含有动物副产品的欧盟化妆品。此后，欧盟设法让中国取消了对化妆品的部分禁令。

一些人表示，中国在国际贸易当中很快学会了“以眼还眼，以牙还牙”。包括中国在内的几个国家最近在WTO的一项裁定中获胜，该裁定认为美国征收钢铁关税的行为违反WTO规定。驻北京一位专职农业问题的西方外交官称，“中国在向世界其他国家学习。”实际上，中国官员表示，其他国家实行的技术性贸易障碍－－比如更严格的检疫标准，对中国71%的出口商造成了影响，2002年就给中国造成170亿美元损失。

中国官员对有关中国未能履行WTO承诺的批评予以了反驳。外交部发言人孔泉称，“当前有一些传言，说中国加入WTO后没有履行承诺。我们完全不能接受这种说法。”

中国在履行WTO几项重要职责方面取得了令人瞩目的进展。中国按计划大范围削减了进口关税。北京还允许外国公司以合资公司的形式进入以前是禁区的证券和基金管理领域。中国司法部对外国律师行在中国其他城市设立新办事处的申请处理得也比人们预期的快。中国保险业监管机构在考虑降低对外国保险公司的资本要求，这将为外国公司在中国设立分支机构扫除一个主要障碍。

中美官员都表达了未来几个月的高层会谈能修补双方贸易分歧的愿望。本月，美国贸易谈判代表罗伯特?策利克(Robert Zoellick)将访问北京。随后将是美国商务部部长唐纳德?埃文斯(Donald Evans)，他要求成立一个新的小组调查中国的贸易行为。中国总理温家宝计划年底展开他就任总理以来的首次美国之行。预计温家宝将为美国公司带去几张合约，并签订一些贸易协议，为其出访营造良好的气氛。

即使如此，许多外国公司仍在大声抱怨被隔离在这一市场之外，称直到现在仍在维护自己的权利。美国商会在近期的中国报告中指出，“WTO蜜月已经结束。”美国商会在年度会员调查中称，相信中国加入WTO对其业务有正面影响的美国公司比例从去年的80%降至仅超过半数。报告称，“这一比例的变化并不出人意料，因为注意力已经从中国入世时的喜悦气氛转向履行其职责上面。”

比如，在2001年中国加入WTO时候，福特汽车公司(Ford Motor Co.)、通用汽车公司(General Motors Copr.)和其他一些外国汽车制造商欢欣鼓舞。除了有望借中国经济迅猛增长的东风销售更多轿车之外，中国入世承诺开放一个诱人的领域：汽车融资。但尽管通用和福特售出了数量可观的汽车，他们仍不得不再等上了将近两年－－直到上周五－－才看到中国颁布新的汽车融资规定，准许他们进入这一领域，分享这一诱人的蛋糕。

在美国和欧洲等地，大约70%的客户寻求通过贷款买车，而中国这一比例仅在15%左右。直到上周五，中国银行业仍将这一业务独自收入自己手中。

福特汽车驻北京发言人许国祯(Kenneth Hsu)说，“我们对汽车融资法规的颁布感到高兴，但是我们仍在研究具体内容。”福特汽车在早些时候曾抱怨这一法规被延迟推出。

一些中国分析师承认，WTO的影响逐渐退却，部分原因是中国颁发一系列业务牌照的步伐缓慢。中国商务部的高级研究员和该部2003 WTO年度报告编辑马玉说，电信是中国拒绝对外开放的领域之一。

马玉称，“开放还不是十分明显。”

比如在WTO规则下面，中国应开放一个称为虚拟网络业务的领域，外国公司将获准对长途电话等服务进行转售或再包装。中美合资世导科技(Silk Road Technologies)是一家寻求获得中国牌照的电信公司，首席执行长Justin Mallen说，“许多公司都提出申请，但是我没听说有任何一家获得了批准。”

商业团体焦急地等待有关在中国进行贸易和销售的新规定。在今年12月中国加入WTO两年之际，预计中国将允许外资公司在贸易和销售合资企业中持有多数股权，并扩大外国公司在中国可销售产品的范围。但是外国汽车制造商对一个草案已经有了戒心，该草案要求他们建立两套不同的分销系统，一个销售在国内生产汽车，另一个则销售进口汽车。公司高层人士担心这一规定不仅徒增成本，而且违背了WTO关于对国内外公司一视同仁的规定。

最近颁布大豆进口禁令的中国国家质量监督检验检疫总局(General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, Aqsiq)已经成为外商在中国入世后进入这一庞大市场所面临挑战的一个象征。自中国加入该组织以来，监管机构已经实施了一系列安全和质量标准，中国官员认为这些标准对于认证有关产品对消费者的安全性是必须的。

北京去年针对转基因农产品颁布了繁琐的规定，此后美国出口至中国的大豆数量在2002年前8个月较前年同期减少了37%。美国和中国谈判后达成了在新措施颁布前维持现状的临时措施，此后中国进口大豆数量出现反弹。

但是美国棉花行业警告称，明年1月1日中国将对进口棉花实行可能阻碍进口的新的检查体制。中国国家质量监督检验检疫总局在去年7月份通知WTO，它将实行与检查棉纤维长度有关的两项新测试。美国棉花行业称，问题在于在这方面世界上仍没有可靠的检测方法。

美国全国棉花委员会(National Cotton Council)的艾伦?德哈尔(Allen A. Terhaar)称，“消除了配额和关税的阻碍后，贸易如何被控制呢？那就是通过非关税壁垒。”

中国监管机构官员否认他们有意通过新的非关税壁垒阻隔贸易的说法。在6月份的一个新闻发布会上，中国国家质量监督检验检疫总局副局长葛志荣称，许多货船卸装大豆延期是因为买家在签署进口合同前没有获得检疫证明，而批评者认为这是项不合理的要求。

围绕大豆以及其他产品产生的争议显示抵触WTO的力量可能正在增强，因为这些贸易规则影响著中国国内有影响力的团体或可能导致一些人失业。一些中国农业专家在国有媒体上主张，北京应该限制某些廉价农产品进口，以缓冲可能对农民收入造成的冲击。

对中国加入WTO以及WTO给中国带来的巨变发挥著政治影响力的老一代领导人已退出政坛。中国的新领导人重组了主要政府部门，其中包括负责执行WTO规则的部门。

在美国，对华贸易最大支持者之一的农场主现在怨气冲天，因为进入中国的后WTO农产品市场依然麻烦重重。在美国的永久正常贸易关系(PNTR)法案以及中国入世努力中发挥重要作用的美国农场主期望获得丰厚回报。事实恰好相反，主要市场出现了萎缩。据中国海关统计数字，2003年前8个月，美国出口到中国的玉米较上年同期下降了96%。

壁垒可能并不是全部问题所在。中国社会科学院(Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)的中美关系学者陈宝森称，由于中国农民能更好地生产和销售高质量的水果和蔬菜，进口产品对中国消费者的吸引力正在减小。

陈宝森皱著眉头说道，“美国葡萄不好，没有汁。”

中国和外国分析师都表示，北京还显示出明确的决心，保护经济中的两大要素：国有企业和农民，这两部分最容易被竞争击垮。分析师表示，失业率上升对社会稳定的威胁有时可能会比贸易自由化的承诺更重要。

中国仍在向不盈利的国有企业投入资金，虽然，WTO的规定要求其逐步取消这种补贴。但据财政部的一位官员透露，当国有企业需要研发资金的时候，财政部就会通过一个独立的机构向它们提供现金。这位官员补充说：“如果WTO说我们不能这样做，那我们就换一个方式。”

中国贸易改革缓慢惹怒美国

China's Slow Pace Of Trade Reforms Angers US


THE HONEYMOON is well and truly over. Much of the euphoria in the United States that accompanied China's entry into the World Trade Organization nearly two years ago has mutated into disappointment and anger.

But the rhetorical hurricane brewing across the Pacific consists of two separate winds. One is largely political and charges China with using an undervalued currency to snare American jobs. It may well die down after the U.S. presidential elections in November 2004. The second has more serious long-term implications because the U.S. business community is growing more impatient in its calls on Beijing to do more to meet its pledges.

In comments prepared for delivery to the U.S. Trade Representative's office, U.S.-China Business Council chief Robert Kapp warned Beijing about its "apparent loss of clear momentum" in implementing obligations to comply with its commitments to the WTO. Kapp, who strongly supported China's WTO membership, forecast that Beijing's "failure to progress decisively on key WTO commitments in China could itself become the product of tit-for-tat frictions" with the U.S. Hurricane Isabel postponed the September hearing in Washington on China's compliance.

A U.S. Chamber of Commerce report released on September 16 said China's compliance record was "uneven and incomplete." It added: "Unless this picture improves, there will be an increasing crescendo of complaints . . . A number of companies are already publicly expressing the view that China is dismissive of global trade rules and commitments."

The reports by the two key business groups -- which last year showed more patience with Beijing's difficulties in complying -- followed a surge of criticism by American politicians and corporate leaders blaming China for the loss of 2.7 million industrial jobs in the past three years. They charge Beijing with keeping its currency undervalued, giving China an unfair export advantage that led to a record U.S. trade deficit of more than $100 billion last year.

The renminbi is pegged to the dollar, so the U.S. currency's slide this year has made Chinese exports even cheaper. Anger in the United States has grown for months as politicians in both parties compete to hit Beijing for its failure to revalue. In early September, a bipartisan group of senators led by Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat, introduced draft legislation slapping a 27.5% tariff on Chinese exports to the U.S. unless Beijing revalues.

A Senate hearing on September 11 almost turned into a referendum on China trade policy. "Over the next dozen years in this country, our biggest economic challenge . . . will be how do we keep too many of our jobs from moving to China," said Lamar Alexander, a Tennessee Republican.

Manufacturers are mounting their own initiatives to confront China. The National Association of Manufacturers, consisting of 14,000 U.S. companies that pushed for China's entry into the WTO, has vowed to join other industrial and agricultural groups in filing a trade complaint against Beijing for allegedly manipulating the renminbi to gain an unfair pricing advantage.

As the 2004 elections approach, President George W. Bush's administration is seeking to appear responsive. On September 15, Commerce Secretary Donald Evans complained about a list of Chinese trade barriers and announced the formation of a new Unfair Trade Practices Team.

The Group of Seven -- the world's wealthiest nations -- also expressed concern. On September 20, the G-7 called for more flexible exchange rates -- without directly naming China. Beijing fended off the criticism with a formula it has used at least since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. "We're committed to liberalization, but I can't give you a very clear timetable of how long it will take," said Li Ruogu, deputy governor of the Bank of China.

China is unswayed by U.S. demands to appreciate the renminbi, calls expected to be repeated when Evans visits Beijing later this year. In September, Chinese officials promised visiting Treasury Secretary John Snow limited action. But they avoided offering a timetable for changes on the renminbi, pegged at about 8.28 renminbi to the dollar for almost a decade.

For Beijing, a stable currency is a key to economic stability and the noises from Washington are making China the scapegoat for U.S. job losses. "It's related to the upcoming U.S. presidential election," says Wang Yong, a professor of international political economy at Peking University. "The government is more open to pressure from interest groups now."

In reality, China's overall global trade surplus is quite small and the huge surplus it enjoys with the U.S. is mainly the result of an increasingly capable Chinese economy competing directly with other developing countries more than with the U.S. "Mexico has free trade with the U.S. and China does not. Yet Mexico is losing jobs to China right now," says Columbia University economist Joseph Stiglitz. This is a reflection not of unfair trade practices, the former World Bank chief economist and Nobel Prize winner says, but of growing efficiencies in China's economy. The currency spat is a result of "Bush trying to shift blame from his macro-mismanagement to the Chinese," says Stiglitz. "America has no grounds for complaint."

Many economists anyway doubt that a revaluation of China's currency by the 15%-40% demanded by American industry groups would make much of dent in the U.S. trade deficit. "If they were to revalue their currency by about 20%, I estimate that the effect on the bilateral trade with the United States would be to reduce their surplus by about $10 billion," economist Nicholas Lardy told the September 11 Senate hearing.

And Lardy, a China specialist at the Institute for International Economics in Washington, warned that the end result of China floating its currency could be the opposite of what senators wished for. "I think it is quite likely that if China floated its currency, that the value of the renminbi would depreciate, not appreciate," he said. "I think it has the potential to . . . cause many problems in the (Chinese) domestic economy, with significant implications throughout Asia, and that it would move the currency in a direction that I think would be contrary to our interests."

The gloves may be off in Washington, but Beijing is anxious to escape being caught in the crosshairs as the election campaign heats up. China wants to avoid the re-emergence of the tough rhetoric that characterized the early months of the Bush administration. Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan says Beijing wants "Sino-U.S. trade friction to be resolved appropriately through consultation."

Equally shy of conflict are the U.S. multinationals with giant manufacturing operations in China and whose exports contribute considerably to the trade deficit. Seven U.S. companies were in the top 50 exporters from China last year. "Other factors need to be taken into consideration -- such as that U.S. manufacturers are so heavily invested in China and exporting out of China to the U.S.," a spokeswoman in Hong Kong for Motorola says of the currency row. Motorola has invested $3.4 billion in China and last year exported $2.6 billion worth of goods -- though it refuses to say how much went to the United States.

But even business groups that want to distance themselves from the campaign over the renminbi support calls for Beijing to adhere more closely to its WTO commitments. In their reports, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and U.S.-China Business Council gave a litany of complaints ranging from Beijing's lack of transparency to its failure to rein in rampant piracy of intellectual property.

Kapp, who last year said Beijing's efforts to stick by its WTO commitments amounted to a "half-full" glass, this year saw "an apparent weakening of government resolve on key WTO implementation issues," according to his draft comments. "Transparency . . . remains a very serious problem," he said. So does protectionism. Kapp said companies in his council complain of "a clear indication of out-and-out protectionism on the part of government bureaucracies defending their bureaucratic prerogatives and the economic interests of their domestic constituencies."

The piracy of intellectual property causes more heartburn for foreign firms. The International Intellectual Property Alliance estimated losses due to piracy by China last year at $1.9 billion. Some 10%-15% of over-the-counter pharmaceuticals sold outside hospitals are counterfeit. Myron Brilliant, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce vice-president for Asia, wrote in his report that without criminal sanctions including imprisonment "it will be difficult to significantly curtail the counterfeiting of pharmaceuticals in China."

Chinese officials insist they are committed to meeting obligations. Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong said Beijing's "stand and determination will not be weakened," even though China had "met some problems and unexpected difficulties in fulfilling its WTO commitments."

Although Beijing has largely fulfilled a pledge to lower tariffs on schedule, its to-do list remains long, according to Brilliant and Kapp. Progress in reducing non-tariff barriers in agriculture is slow. So is action on a promise to relax restrictions on U.S. companies distributing products in China. Beijing still has excessive capitalization requirements for banks, insurance companies and telecoms-service providers and is two years late in opening car financing to foreign players.

Kapp and Brilliant warn that China's failure to address these problems could lead to renewed turbulence for political and commercial ties between Beijing and Washington. "Absent more progress toward fulfilling its WTO commitments, concerns about China will only rise," Brilliant said. "Without tangible improvements, there will be political consequences as well as a possible souring of business views about the market."
中国贸易改革缓慢惹怒美国

蜜月期真的结束了。中国大约两年前加入世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization, 简称WTO)而在美国引发的欢欣鼓舞之情大多已转变成了失望和愤怒。

这些横跨太平洋的疾言厉语汇聚了两股风暴。一股大体是政治性的，指责中国通过人为压低人民币币值来从美国抢夺就业机会。在2004年11月美国总统大选结束后，这股风暴有可能停止。而第二股风暴的长期影响则更加严重，美国商界一直呼吁中国政府更好履行加入WTO时所作的承诺，现在他们对这种苦口婆心的做法越来越没有耐心了。

美中贸易全国委员会(U.S.-China Business Council)主席罗勃特?卡普(Robert Kapp)在准备提交给美国贸易代表办公室(U.S. Trade Representative's office)的建议中警告说，中国政府在实施加入WTO时所作承诺方面显然正在失去动力。卡普本人强烈支持中国加入WTO，他预言，中国未能坚决履行加入WTO时所做承诺一事，其本身就有可能导致中美间激烈的贸易摩擦。美国政府就中国履行对WTO所做承诺举行的听证会因伊莎贝尔号飓风袭来而被推迟。

美国商会(U.S. Chamber of Commerce)9月16日公布的一份报告称，中国对其WTO成员国义务的履行是不均衡和不完整的。它还说，除非这方面的情况获得改善，否则对中国的批评声将越来越大，已有许多公司公开声称，中国无视全球贸易规则和它所应承担的义务。

在上述两个重要贸易团体公布其报告前，美国政治家和企业领导人掀起了一场批评中国的浪潮，他们指责中国应为过去三年中美国制造业损失了270万个就业职位一事负责。这两个贸易团体去年对中国履行其WTO义务不力还表示了更多耐心。但它们现在公布的报告则指责说，中国政府人为压低人民币汇率，从而使中国获得了不公平的贸易优势，并导致美国去年对华贸易逆差达到了创纪录的1,000多亿美元。

因为人民币兑美元汇率保持固定，美元汇率今年的下滑已使中国的出口商品变得更加便宜。由于近几个月来美国两党政客都在竞相指责中国人为压低人民币币值，美国国内对中国的愤怒情绪一直在增长。9月初，由纽约州民主党参议员查尔斯?舒默尔(Charles Schumer)牵头，两党议员们联合提交了一项法律草案，要求对来自中国的进口产品加征27.5%的关税，除非中国政府同意调整人民币汇率。

参议院9月11日的一场听证会几乎变成了对华贸易政策的评估会。田纳西州共和党议员拉马尔?亚历山大(Lamar Alexander)称，美国未来十几年的最大经济挑战将是，如何避免过多的就业岗位转移至中国。

美国的制造商们正在提出对付中国的大量建议。由14,000家美国公司组成的全国制造商协会(National Association of Manufacturers)已发誓要加入其他工业和农业团体的行列，指控中国通过操控人民币汇率来获得不公平的价格优势，而该组织的成员公司曾力争使中国加入WTO。

随著2004年大选的临近，布什政府正努力在上述问题上表现出积极负责的态度。9月15日，美国商务部长唐纳德?埃文斯(Donald Evans)对中国的一系列贸易壁垒提出了指责，并宣布组建一个新的不公平贸易行为调查小组。

七大工业国也表达了对这方面问题的关注。9月20日，七大工业国呼吁各国采取更灵活的汇率制度，虽然它们并没有直接提及中国。北京仍用其1997年亚洲金融危机以来的惯常说法来回应这一批评。中国央行副行长李若谷说，中国承诺会实施利率自由化，但却无法给出一个具体实施的时间表。

虽然美国要求中国将人民币升值，而且预计美国商务部长埃文斯今年晚些时候访华时会再次提出这一要求，但中国却不为所动。今年9月，中国官员对到访的美国财政部长约翰?斯诺(John Snow)保证，会采取一些行动减缓美国的担忧，但他们避免提出一个改革人民币汇率的时间表，美元兑人民币汇率被固定在人民币8.28元左右的水平已差不多有十年了。

对北京来说，人民币汇率稳定对维持中国经济的稳定性至关重要，而来自华盛顿的杂音却正在使中国成为美国就业岗位流失的替罪羊。北京大学(Peking University)国际政治经济学教授王勇说，这与即将到来的美国总统大选有关，美国政府目前更易于接受国内利益集团的压力。

事实上，中国总体的对外贸易顺差很小，而其对美贸易的巨大顺差主要是中国对其他发展中国家的竞争优势越来越强造成的，与美国的直接竞争并非主要原因。哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)的经济学家约瑟夫?斯蒂格利兹(Joseph Stiglitz)说，墨西哥与美国签订有自由贸易协定，而中国没有，但墨西哥的就业机会目前却在流向中国。斯蒂格利兹是诺贝尔奖获得者，曾担任世界银行(World Bank)首席经济学家，他说，个中原因是中国经济的效率不断增强。斯蒂格利兹说：“对人民币汇率的争议是布什政府试图将人们对其宏观管理的批评引向中国而导致的，美国的行为是无端指责。”

而许多经济学家则怀疑，就算按美国工业团体的要求将人民币汇率上调15%-40%，美国的贸易赤字是否就能因此而显著缩小。经济学家尼古拉斯?拉迪(Nicholas Lardy) 在9月11日的参议院听证会上说，如果人民币升值20%左右，中国的对美贸易顺差有可能减少约100亿美元。

拉迪是华盛顿国际经济研究所(Institute for International Economics)的中国问题专家，他同时警告说，中国使人民币汇率自由浮动的最终结果可能会与参议员们期望的相反，即人民币很有可能因此而贬值，而不是升值。他认为，人民币汇率自由浮动可能会给中国国内经济造成很多问题，对整个亚洲也会产生重大影响，并导致人民币汇率朝损害美国利益的方向发展。

华盛顿可能已在摩拳擦掌，但中国仍然渴望在美国日趋激烈的选战中能够不成为遭人攻击的靶子。中国外交部发言人孔泉说，中国希望中美贸易摩擦可以通过协商方式获得适当解决。

在中国有大量制造业务的美国跨国公司也不希望中美发生贸易冲突，中国对美贸易顺差的相当一部分是这些公司造成的。去年中国对美出口排名前50位的企业中有7家是美国公司。摩托罗拉公司(Motorola)在香港的一位发言人谈到人民币汇率问题时说，其他一些因素也应予以考虑，如美国制造商已在中国大量投资，并将其在中国生产的产品出口到美国。摩托罗拉公司已在中国投资了34亿美元，其去年从中国出口的产品价值26亿美元，不过它拒绝透露其中多少出口到了美国。

但即使是那些不愿插手人民币升值运动的商业团体，也对呼吁中国更严格遵守对WTO所作承诺持支持态度。

对知识产权的侵犯也是外国公司感到头疼的问题。据国际知识产权联盟(International Intellectual Property Alliance)估计，中国的盗版情况已有所改善。但中国在放宽对美国公司在华分销其产品的限制方面进展缓慢。北京对外国银行、保险公司和电信服务企业在华开展业务方面仍有过分的资本要求，对外国公司开放汽车贷款业务方面也比WTO的规定落后了两年。

世界对中国经济繁荣的态度：愤怒或接受

China's Trade Partners Seek to Maintain Links

Amid Heated Rhetoric, Some Moderate Tone
To Preserve Access to Markets, Labor
The rising chorus of alarm about China's fast-growing trade and manufacturing is drowning out another message: Not everyone in the world agrees.

There are plenty of voices crying out as China manufactures more, exports more and draws more investment. Mexican President Vicente Fox accuses China of acting like "pirates" by offering tax breaks and other sweeteners to persuade manufacturers to leave Mexico. Europe's trade openness toward Asia and China is "suicidal," declared Italian Economics Minister Giulio Tremonti recently. And in the U.S., the National Association of Manufacturers said this month it would support a novel trade case that, if successful, would trigger penalty tariffs on billions of dollars in Chinese imports.
But many of China's trading partners in Europe and Asia are taking a more moderate tone, eager to keep the door open to the growing China market. Indeed, in both the U.S. and Japan -- the two countries leading demands for China to let the value of its currency move more freely -- many companies continue to invest in China, taking advantage of the same cheap labor that others decry. Even the Bush administration has waged the currency battle largely as an exercise in jawboning, figuring that Beijing's help on North Korea is too important to jeopardize.

This ambivalence suggests that even though Washington persuaded other industrial nations to join its call at meetings this month in Dubai for China and Japan to adopt more flexible exchange rates, the U.S. may find it difficult to get any consensus on the issue. And these divisions could strengthen China's hand as it resists U.S. pressure. "Basically, China is being used as a whipping boy as the U.S. finds itself with an economic recovery that isn't producing jobs," says Tan Siok Choo, a Malaysian analyst associated with a government-supported think tank.

Still, election-year politics, a slower than expected U.S. economic recovery, persistent high unemployment and job losses to China will keep the issue alive in Washington through next year. While Chinese officials insist they won't float or revalue the yuan -- a move that could destabilize China's economy by hurting exports and shocking the financial system -- Beijing may take some modest measures to relieve upward pressure on the yuan and appease American anger.

It isn't that other countries don't fear competition from China. In Southeast Asia, for instance, China's ability to attract large volumes of foreign investment has sparked much teeth-gnashing in recent years. But Southeast Asian countries believe their prospects depend heavily on the continued opening and development of China. In sharp contrast with its huge trade surplus with the U.S., China buys more from East and Southeast Asia than it sells there.


"China is a huge and lucrative market," says Laureen Goi, market-development manager of TYJ Food Manufacturing Pte. Ltd, a Singaporean company that sells frozen and dried snack food in China, increasingly from joint-venture factories within China itself.

China has also gone out of its way to woo Southeast Asian countries, politically and diplomatically. It has promised to create a free-trade area in the region over 10 years. Recently, China agreed in principle to a request by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations for a code of conduct in the disputed South China Sea, even though China initially opposed a code.

"China has contributed to global economic activity, and it has added to global economic growth," says Rodolfo Severino, former secretary-general of the regional group, known as Asean. "China also plays the role of regional locomotive, especially while Japan remains stagnant."

In Japan, the flood of cheap products from China has some industries up in arms, even as Tokyo itself draws flak for curbing the value of the Japanese currency to help its exports be more competitive. A 2002 book called "The Day When China Overtakes Japan" fretted that Japan's trade surplus might disappear by 2004. "It's hard for exports to grow because of the increase in competing products from China and other parts of Asia," lamented the book's introduction.

But while Japan's farmers and textile makers complain that Chinese competition is driving them out of business, car makers and clothing retailers say their operations in China are their most promising areas of growth. Increasingly, Japan's China-bashers are being drowned out by the voices of those with China fever.

Economists note that while Chinese exports to Japan are growing, much of the trade is driven by Japanese companies that have shifted some production to China to cut costs and boost profits. Takamoto Suzuki, an economist at the UFJ Institute, a think tank in Tokyo, estimates that 60% of trade between Japan and China is conducted by Japanese companies.

In addition, economists say, the two countries have different industrial strengths: China provides inexpensive labor and its products compete largely on price; Japan boasts leading-edge technology. By comparing the value of exports to the U.S. within various product categories, such as TV sets, Japan and China compete in just 16% of product categories, says C.H. Kwan, an economist at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, a government-affiliated think tank in Tokyo.

In Europe -- with the exception of Italy -- politicians and companies have also responded coolly to the rise of China as the world's manufacturing floor.

European financial officials backed the U.S. in calling for Asian economies to allow their currencies to move more freely against the dollar. Yet the Europeans have emphasized caution, stressing the frailty of the Chinese financial sector and other possible harmful effects of a quick shift to a floating yuan. "The discussion has been very misleading in talking about free floating, which is out of the question, given all these other dimensions," Caio Koch-Weser, the deputy German finance minister, said recently.

The European economy is still largely skewed toward capital goods, such as machinery and cars, rather than goods like consumer electronics, where China is becoming more competitive. In addition, a stronger euro against the dollar and other currencies isn't seen as all bad, since it eases inflation pressure. Perhaps most importantly, unlike the U.S., Europe isn't gearing up for any national elections. With unemployment stubbornly high in the U.S., "the Bush team wants to at least look like it's doing something," said Maxine Koster, a global economist with Credit Suisse First Boston in London.

Still, concern about China clearly has risen in Europe in recent months. The EU's largest trade deficit with any single partner is now with China, at $52 billion.

For countries like Italy, whose economy is highly dependent on textiles, figures like that are beginning to have an effect. The Italian luxury-goods sector, which still mostly relies on Italian-made textiles, has been squeezed by China's emergence in recent years. Como, a city famous for its silks, has lost about 50% of its silk-tie production during the past five years, according to the Como Industrial Association, which blames the new competition.

Some countries are less ambivalent. Mexico this year is expected to lose its position to China as the No. 2 exporter to the U.S. economy. Grupo Televisa SA, the country's biggest media firm, last week broadcast a series on China's threat to Mexico. And the host of the country's widely watched morning chat program -- a clown named Brozo -- told his audience: "There is something wrong when it costs less to move a product from Tijuana to China and back to Houston than it does to simply send it from Tijuana to Houston."

But as some U.S. politicians continue to hammer away at China, they may find other countries less sympathetic.

"The U.S. is losing jobs because American and European companies are chasing the most efficient means of production, the very process that the U.S. is always trying to ram down the throats of developing countries," says Malaysia's Ms. Tan. "That is a structural change and those jobs are gone forever. ... Washington ought to practice what it preaches and tell Americans that truth, instead of looking for scapegoats."
世界对中国经济繁荣的态度：愤怒或接受

北京发现了经济繁荣的一个负面影响：中国正成为众矢之的。

墨西哥总统文森特?福克斯(Vicente Fox)谴责中国政府官员扮演了“掠夺者”的角色，他们通过提供税收减免和其他优惠措施来说服制造商离开墨西哥而转向太平洋对岸的中国。而意大利经济部长朱利奥?特里蒙蒂(Giulio Tremonti)近期表示，欧洲对亚太地区和中国开发贸易的做法无异于“自杀”。

随著2004年总统大选的日益临近，美国国内对制造业务外包至中国以及美中贸易逆差的扩大的愤怒情绪越发强烈。由工会、制造业贸易团体和国会议员组成的联盟对中国发起了联合抨击。上周，美国全国制造商协会(National Association of Manufacturers)宣称该协会计划就此向中国提出一起新的贸易诉讼，一旦成功，美国将对数十亿美元的中国进口商品征收惩罚性关税。

尽管美国和其他国家态度强硬，中国的许多亚欧贸易伙伴对此采取更为温和的态度，他们渴望能够进入不断增长的中国市场。事实上，即便在要求中国采取汇率浮动制呼声最高的美国和日本国内，许多公司仍继续对中国投资，从备受谴责的中国廉价劳动力中获益匪浅。许多分析师认为，就连对中国发起汇率责难的布什(Bush)政府也只是口头上吓唬一下，因为中国政府在朝鲜核武器问题上对美国的帮助至关重要，美国无法承担失去这一帮助的后果。

所有这些都显示出，在未来几个月，随著美国继续就人民币浮动汇率向中国施压，美国可能发现自己将处于一个尴尬境地。中国官员坚称，他们不会让采取人民币浮动汇率机制或对人民币重新估价，因为这样将损害中国的出口并动摇其金融体系，进而造成中国经济动荡。

更可能的结果是，中国可能采取一些温和的措施以消除美国的怨气，包括发行更多以美元计价的债券，从而消化掉市场中多余的美元。由于出口上升和外国投资纷纷涌入，中国央行被迫买入多余美元，从而造成美元兑人民币继续走强。其他考虑中的措施包括允许中国公司加大对海外的投资，以及允许中国公民携带更多硬通货出境。如果这些措施（有些已经在进展中）仍无法令美国满意，中国还有一张牌，即对重要的美国商品发出大额订单，以略微平衡美中两国的贸易差额，并缓解美国的失业形势。

美国对中国的突然抵触情绪只是中国新一届政府所面临的诸多挑战之一。今年以来，中国遭受到非典型肺炎(SARS)疫情爆发的冲击，继尔又面对因备受争议的23条立法引发的香港民众示威游行。对中国固定汇率制度和贸易政策的批评预计还将继续，并将成为布什下月底出席在曼谷召开的亚太经合组织(Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation)峰会和中国总理温家宝年内晚些时候访美时的首要议题。

与马来西亚政府智囊团有关联的分析师Tan Siok Choo认为，中国基本上成了美国经济复苏却无法创造就业的替罪羊。

东南亚各经济体一直担心近年来中国经济增长对它们构成的挑战，特别是中国吸引巨额外国投资的能力。但是东南亚各经济体也相信，它们的繁荣与中国的进一步开放和发展息息相关。虽然中美双边贸易呈现巨额贸易顺差，但是中国对东南亚进口多于出口。中国海关的数据显示，今年前7个月，中国向其他亚洲国家的出口总额为1,164亿美元，进口为1,444亿美元。
与此形成鲜明对比的是，美国商务部(U.S. Commerce Department)称，2002年美中贸易逆差为1,030亿美元，而预计今年该数字将继续扩大。由于计算方式的不同，中国官方公布的美中贸易逆差数字仅为美方数字的一半左右。

一家对中国出口中国食品的新加坡公司TYJ Food Manufacturing Pte.发现中国市场非常有利可图。TYJ在新加坡生产供出口的冷冻和其他中国休闲食品，但通过与中国建立的合资工厂，该公司加大了产品在中国市场的销售。TYJ公司市场开发部经理Laureen Goi表示，中国是一个蕴含丰厚利润的巨大市场。

中国一直通过各种渠道发展与东南亚国家的关系，无论是在政治上还是在外交上。中国许诺在10年内在该地区内建立自由贸易区。近来，中国在原则上同意了东南亚国家联盟(Association of Southeast Asian Nations, 简称：东盟)就解决中国南海有争议岛屿和珊瑚礁问题签署行为守则，尽管中国在最初反对该守则。东南亚国家也因1997-98金融危机期间人民币没有贬值而依然对中国心存感激。

前东盟秘书长塞维利奥(Rodolfo Severino)表示，中国对全球经济贡献巨大，并增进了全球的经济增长。中国还在地区经济中充当了火车头的角色，特别是在日本经济停滞不前之际。

在欧洲，除了意大利之外，其他国家的政坛人士和工商企业对中国成为世界制造大工厂的看法则要比美国乐观。欧洲各国财政部官员在本月早些时候于迪拜举行的七大工业国(Group of Seven)会议上与美国站在一边，呼吁亚洲国家允许本币兑美元更自由地浮动，由市场力量来决定汇率。然而，欧洲官员同时指出应谨慎行事，强调中国的金融体系十分脆弱，还列举了其他因人民币迅速转变为自由浮动而可能导致的破坏性影响。

德国财政部副部长科赫韦泽(Caio Koch-Weser)近期表示，讨论让人民币自由浮动是具有误导性的，从各个方面综合考虑，就会发现这样做是有问题的。其他欧洲国家官员对美国强迫中国允许人民币自由浮动也觉得看不过眼。“一国应当采取什么样的汇率制度是不应当以这种人人喊打的方式来解决的”，国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)总裁霍斯特?克勒(Horst Kohler)在迪拜会议上说。

欧洲出于以下几方面的考虑并没有对中国采取施压的态度。第一，与日本和美国不同，欧洲的经济结构偏向于资本品，如机器设备和汽车等，而不是中国竞争力日趋加强的消费电子品领域。第二，欧元兑美元及其他货币走强并非一点好处都没有，因为欧元升值缓解了欧洲的通货膨胀压力，并加大了欧洲央行(European Central Bank)再次降息的可能，瑞士信贷第一波士顿(Credit Suisse First Boston)驻伦敦全球经济学家寇斯特(Maxine Koster)说。

斯特说，“只要汇率不出现剧烈波动，欧洲央行对欧元的平稳升值是不会过多干涉的”。

欧元走强使欧洲进口商品价格下降，并带动欧洲消费者价格走低。欧元区经济几乎有60%靠内需拉动，这较贸易对经济增长的贡献大得多。贸易占欧元区区内生产总值的大约15%。第三，欧元区也不像美国那样即将进行总统大选。

美国失业率居高不下，“布什政府至少要做出个样子，显得他们在努力改善状况”，寇斯特说。“我们认为美国对中国施压更多是出于政治方面的原因”。

最后，一些欧洲官员认为，亚洲国家干预汇市使本币兑美元保持在较低水平是有益的。他们的这种做法可以降低美元暴跌的可能，那可是世界经济最可怕的梦魇之一。通过抛售本币买入美元，亚洲各国央行促使美元升值。“亚洲国家通过干预汇市为美国经常帐户的融资，减少人们对美元贬值的忧虑”，美国银行(Bank of America)驻伦敦经济学家霍格尔?施米丁(Holger Schmieding)说。

但近几个月以来，欧洲对中国的顾虑显然也有所增加。倘若美国的经常帐户赤字开始下降，而欧元又是世界主要货币中唯一兑美元升值的货币，那欧洲肯定将直接承受美国举措所带来的影响。“如果其他国家都不让本币兑美元升值，那美元汇率调整影响所造成的大部分负担都将由欧洲承担”，当时还担任欧洲央行行长的德伊森贝赫(Wim Duisenberg)6月份在欧洲议会(European Union Parliament)作证时说。“已经到了亚洲国家承担一些其汇率政策影响的时候了”。瑞士信贷第一波士顿称，欧元今年兑美元已上涨了9.4%，日圆兑美元只升值了5.4%。

最近几年，中国已经成为欧洲一个主要贸易伙伴。欧盟统计局(Eurostat)公布的数据显示，欧元区进口中国的商品总额已大幅上升至620亿欧元（合711.1亿美元元），较1997年增长了一倍多；同期欧元区对中国的出口额也增长了一倍多至300亿欧元。 虽然这些数据仍逊于欧元区与英国和美国的贸易规模，但已经超过了欧元区与俄罗斯和日本的贸易额。而欧盟15国对中国的贸易逆差最大，达到520亿美元。

像意大利这样经济发展高度依赖于纺织业的国家，这些贸易数据已开始对其经济产生影响。最近今年，中国的崛起已经令意大利的奢侈品行业备受排挤。该行业主要以意大利生产的纺织品为依托。根据科摩市工业协会(Como Industrial Association)统计的数据，新竞争对手的出现，使科摩这个素以丝绸闻名的意大利城市在过去5年中失去了大约一半的丝绸领带产量。

可尽管如此，美国仍是对中国贸易做法最为恼怒的国家。美国一些小型工具及模具制造商驻密尔沃基的独立销售员朗?凯斯(Ron Kaas)说，随著来自其他国家的竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自中国的竞争，已经使无数美国小公司被淘汰，他去年一年的销售额下降了25%。

为了反击，他联合一些人成立了“拯救美国制造业”(Save American Manufacturing, 简称：SAM)协会，这是一个主要由失业的美国制造业工人组成的组织。从2月份创立以来，该组织已吸收了20多个州的数千人，他们敦促国会议员采取行动保住他们的工作。

虽然贸易保护主义的做法很难在国会获得通过，但目前的形势催生了一系列抗议中国的政策建议，有的指控中国违反贸易规则，还有的呼吁如果中国不改变汇率政策就对其进口产品征收惩罚性关税。这些措施多数都可能无法获得批准。但大选之年的政治争斗、经济复苏缓于预期、失业率居高不下以及就业岗位的流失，这些因素都会使如何对待中国成为美国国会延续到明年的热门话题。

一些自由贸易的热烈拥护者也开始调整对中国的策略。美国各行业已经排起了长队，请求政府针对中国的进口商品给予它们一些救济措施；超过五分之一的所谓倾销指控都与中国有关。伊利诺伊州共和党众议员曼祖罗(Don Manzullo)说，如果布什不采取措施保住国内制造业的就业岗位，选民们明年就会将气出在选票上”。

墨西哥对中国的不满也积蓄了一年有余。身为仅次于加拿大的对美第二大出口国，今年它恐怕要把这个地位输给中国了。“中国的条件可谓得天独厚。人民币汇率被低估，政府给予丰厚的行业补贴，而且还有大量廉价劳动力。我们拿什么去和中国竞争？”墨西哥最有影响力的商业组织负责人兰格尔(Hector Rangel)说。

虽然外界措辞严厉，但中国仍然吸引了大量外国投资，很多都来自美国，这说明美国企业对中国的态度是一分为二的。比如说，中国正在成为晶片制造商英特尔(Intel Corp.)和电脑生产商戴尔公司(Dell Inc.)及其他科技公司的生产平台。英特尔最近还宣布要投资2亿多美元在中国中部地区新建一家晶片厂。

与此同时，福特汽车(Ford Motor Co.)也在考虑扩建其在重庆的工厂，并最终希望该厂的年产量能增长两倍至15万辆。今年1月份，福特已经开始通过一个投资9,800万美元的合资公司在中国西南部生产轿车，并计划每年生产5万辆蒙迪欧(Mondeo)和嘉年华(Fiesta)轿车。通用汽车(General Motors Corp.)在上海的旗舰生产厂也已经在扩建当中。

“美国的工作岗位之所以流失，原因是美国和欧洲企业都在追求生产的最大效率，这也正是美国公司一直强迫发展中国家所接受的运营模式”，马来西亚分析师Tan说。“这是一种结构性变革，那些流失的岗位再也不会回到美国...美国政府应当按照其一贯宣扬的理论去做事，告诉美国人事实的真相，而不要再寻找替罪羊”。

日本产业界两种声音论中国

Japanese Industry Holds Dueling Views of China


TOKYO -- When a group of Japanese towel makers lobbied their government two years ago to curb imports from China, Toshihiro Yagi, president of closely held towel maker Toyo Teri, refused to go along.

Instead, Mr. Yagi tendered his resignation to the towel makers trade group and led a smaller group of manufacturers in demonstrations against import restrictions. Mr. Yagi saw the threat from China coming years earlier and set up a factory there in 1991, so any sanctions on imports from China would hurt his business. He argued that instead of seeking government protection, more Japanese towel makers should do as his company did and take advantage of China's less expensive labor to expand globally.

"To me, China is an attractive place because if you go to China, you see the whole world, including China, Japan, the U.S. and Europe, as one market, while if you stay in Japan, Japan will be the only market for you," he says.

The ambivalence of Japanese towel makers toward China epitomizes Japan's broader economic relationship with its biggest Asian neighbor. For every politician or industry group arguing that China is a threat, there seems to be another making the case that China's growing economic power is a huge opportunity for Japanese companies.

While farmers and textile makers complain that Chinese competition is driving them out of business, Japanese car makers and clothing retailers say their operations in China are their most promising areas of growth. Increasingly, Japan's China-bashers are being drowned out by voices of those with China fever.

That isn't to say there aren't plenty of people who still see China as a threat. Haruhiko Kuroda, a former high-ranking Finance Ministry official and an adviser to Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, has argued that a flood of cheap Chinese products is eroding prices, thereby contributing to Japan's deflation problem. Persistently falling prices constitute an important factor in Japan's inability to pull out of its long economic slump. Leaders of Japan's ruling party have called for a revaluation of the yuan, which would reduce China's currency advantage, to stem the flow of cheap imports into Japan.

Others in Japan worry that low-cost Chinese factories are sucking production away. China is the world's top producer of many electronics products, making 40% of DVD players in 2001, compared with 20% for consumer-electronics powerhouse Japan, according to Nihon Keizai Shimbun. Though Japan's main source of growth is exports, a 2002 book called "The Day When China Overtakes Japan," fretted that Japan's notorious trade surplus might disappear by 2004. "It's hard for exports to grow because of the increase in competing products from China and other parts of Asia," lamented the book's introduction.

But a growing band of economists say such talk is alarmist -- and wrong.

First, while Chinese exports are growing, much of the trade is driven by Japanese companies which, like Mr. Yagi's, have shifted some production to China to cut costs and boost profits. Takamoto Suzuki, an economist at the UFJ Institute, a Tokyo think tank, estimates that 60% of trade between Japan and China is conducted by Japanese companies.

In addition, economists say, the two countries have completely different industrial strengths: China provides inexpensive labor and its products compete largely on price; Japan boasts leading-edge technology. By comparing the value of exports to the U.S. within various product categories, such as TV sets, Japan and China only compete in 16% of product categories, says C.H. Kwan, an economist at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, a government-affiliated think tank in Tokyo. That compares to 37% for South Korea's overlap with China, and 83% for Indonesia. Japan's relations with China "are complementary," Dr. Kwan says.

That presents an opportunity for Japan to do what economists have long been imploring: farm out simpler manufacturing tasks and focus on higher-value-added operations. Japan's world-class electronics and auto companies have been relocating production to China for years; Honda Motor Co. plans to make cars in China for world-wide export.

However, much Japanese industry remains instinctively loath to give up manufacturing, which was long a source of national pride and strength. That is especially true in the country's inefficient industries, which cater to the domestic market and cling to the protection of trade barriers.

Over the past couple of years, trade spats have erupted over leeks, mushrooms and neckties, as Japanese farmers and apparel makers feared that Chinese competitors would price them out of business. Mr. Yagi, the towel maker, works in such an industry, but he saw China as an opportunity: a source of less-expensive labor to help expand his business. He sells about half his towels outside Japan.

"The reallocation of labor-intensive manufacturing causes pain," says Tatha Ghose, global economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. "But it's healthy. Japan has learned to take advantage of China."
日本产业界两种声音论中国

两年前，当一个由日本的毛巾生产商所组成的团体游说日本政府限制从中国进口毛巾时，毛巾生产商Toyo Teri的总裁Toshihiro Yagi却置身事外，拒绝参与此事。

相反，Toshihiro Yagi选择退出了该毛巾生产商的贸易组织，并率领一个较小的生产商团体举行游行，抗议对中国毛巾的进口实施限制。其实他在几年前就预见到了来自中国毛巾生产商的威胁，并于1991年在中国设立了一家毛巾生产厂，任何对中国进口的限制都将损害其业务。他认为，与其寻求政府保护，不如更多日本的毛巾厂商仿效他的行动，利用中国的廉价劳动力来开拓全球的市场。

他说：“对于我来说，中国是一个很有吸引力的地方，因为如果你到了中国，你能发现包括中国、日本、美国和欧洲在内的整个世界都成了一个市场。而如果你停留在日本，那么对你来说日本就是你唯一的市场。”

日本毛巾生产商对于中国的这种矛盾心理可以说概括了日本与中国的全面经济关系。对于任何一个主张中国威胁论的政客或工业团体来说，目前似乎呈现出了另一幅景象：中国日益增长的经济实力为日本的公司提供了巨大的机遇。

尽管日本的农民和纺织厂商抱怨说来自中国的竞争正在将他们逐渐挤出市场，但日本的汽车制造商和成衣零售商们则表示，他们在中国的业务是增长势头最良好的地区。在日本国内，越来越多的中国威胁论者正在被那些中国狂热者的声音所淹没。

当然，将中国视为威胁的人还有很多。前日本财务省财务官黑田东彦就曾表示，大量涌入的中国廉价产品正在侵蚀日本的价格水平，并因此加剧了日本的通货紧缩问题。持续下降的价格水平已经成为日本无力摆脱长期经济滑坡的一个重要因素。

日本执政党的领导人曾经呼吁对人民币进行重新估值，这将削弱中国的货币汇率优势，从而抑制进入日本的中国廉价商品。

还有一些日本人则担忧，低成本的中国工厂正在吸引日本公司将生产制造业务逐步外移。中国是全球许多电子产品的重要产地。据《日本经济新闻》(Nihon Keizai Shimbun)报导，2001年中国制造的DVD播放机占到了全球产量的40%，而一向号称家电王国的日本只占到了产量的20%。日本经济增长的主要渠道就是出口，但2002年一本名为《当中国取代日本之时》(The Day When China Overtakes Japan)的书却忧心忡忡地指出，日本巨大的贸易盈余可能会在2004年消失殆尽。该书的引言写道：“因为来自中国和亚洲其他国家的产品竞争，日本的出口很难继续增长。”

但越来越多的经济学家表示，这种论调有点大惊小怪，且并不正确。

首先，虽然中国的出口正在增长，但其中有许多贸易都是受到了一些日本公司的驱动，比如Toshihiro Yagi的公司，他们将一些生产业务移往中国以节省成本并提高利润。UFJ Institute的经济学家Takamoto Suzuki估计，中日贸易间有60%是由日本的公司所完成的。UFJ Institute是一家位于东京的智库。

此外，经济学家还表示，中日具有完全不同的产业优势：中国拥有廉价的劳动力，而它的产品也主要依靠价格优势来竞争；日本则拥有领先的技术优势。据政府下属机构经济产业研究所(Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry)的经济学家C.H. Kwan表示，通过比较中日两国出口到美国的各类不同价值的商品，发现比如在电视机方面，中日两国存在竞争的产品种类只占到了16%。而韩国与中国之间存在产品竞争的比例达到了37%，中国和印尼之间的竞争比例则高达83%。因此Kwan博士表示，中日之间的经济关系是互补的。

长久以来，日本的经济学家一直在寻求这样一种策略：将较为简单的生产任务转包出去，将更多的精力集中到高附加值的业务经营中。而中日之间这种互补的关系则赋予了日本实现这一策略的机会。日本一些世界级的电子和汽车企业多年来一直将生产业务移往中国：本田汽车(Honda Motor Co. Ltd., J.HMC)计划在中国制造汽车用于向全球出口。

然而，日本还有许多产业依然对放弃自己生产有一种本能的厌恶，因为生产制造一直是日本引以为荣的强项。尤其是日本国内一些缺乏效率的行业，它们专门面向著国内市场，而且一直依赖于贸易壁垒的保护。

在过去几年中，中日两国在诸如大葱、蘑菇和领带等产品上的贸易冲突接连爆发。而Toshihiro Yagi则表示，他将中国视为一个机会：一个可以提供廉价劳动力并帮助他拓展业务的渠道。目前他有一半的销售额是在日本以外完成的。

Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein的全球经济学家Tatha Ghose表示，将劳动密集型行业进行再分配将会引发阵痛，但这是健康的。日本已经学会了怎样利用中国的优势。

制造商和工会或联手投诉中国外汇及贸易政策

Labor, Business May Join Forces in China Complaint

The National Association of Manufacturers and the AFL-CIO, long-time opponents on trade issues, likely will join forces to put together a complaint alleging that China controls its currency to gain an unfair trade advantage.

NAM President Jerry Jasinowski said last week that his organization is joining other industrial and agricultural groups to develop a so-called Section 301 trade action against China. The complaint would be filed initially with the U.S. Trade Representative's office for investigation, but would need to be authorized by the Bush administration for filing at the World Trade Organization.

At the request of some large multinational companies in the past few days, the coalition also is considering expanding the complaint to include trade violation allegations related to product counterfeiting and import tariffs, the manufacturers group says.

Linking with the AFL-CIO would give a complaint the kind of broad-based backing that the administration would have a difficult time turning down.

But some Bush administration officials would welcome the complaint as an added tool to exert pressure on the Chinese, according to a person close to the administration.

Thea Lee, assistant director of the AFL-CIO's international economics department, said that the union "is very likely" to become part of the manufacturers group's coalition.

The two sides were scheduled to meet Thursday to discuss the complaint and decide whether to become partners. The union has been a staunch critic of the U.S. policy that opened trade with China, arguing that it has resulted in the loss of hundreds of thousands of manufacturing jobs.

The complaint "is the direction we want to go. We want to see action sooner and to be a little tougher," Ms. Lee said. The Bush administration's failure to convince the Chinese to change its currency policy has been a motivation for the AFL-CIO to join the trade group coalition.

In a recent trip to China, Treasury Secretary John Snow urged Beijing leaders, without success, to revalue the yuan.

"We saw [Mr.] Snow coming back from Beijing empty handed and the Bush administration kind of shrugging their shoulders. That's totally inadequate," Ms. Lee said.

The affiliation between the union and trade group isn't unprecedented. The AFL-CIO has taken part in a separate coalition of 90 manufacturing and industrial trade groups, which was organized by the National Association of Manufacturers about two years to urge the administration to consider strategies for lowering the then highly valued dollar.

Scot Montrey, a spokesman for the trade group, said there has been overwhelming interest by other trade groups in joining the coalition to prepare the complaint.

Separately, at a hearing of the Congressional committee to assess the economic and security implications of China's entry to the WTO, lawmakers stepped up criticism against China's trade and currency policies.

"Talk is not enough" to prod China to take the action, said U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY), who recently introduced a bill requiring punitive tariff action against China in the event of its failure to revalue the remimibi, or yuan.

"We're going to pursue this legislation...and this is indeed a shot across the bow," the New York senator added.

Early this month, Mr. Schumer and other legislators from both Democratic and Republican parties co-sponsored a bill which would impose a 27.5% tariff on all Chinese goods if China refuses to revalue the yuan, which is now virtually pegged at 8.28 yuan to the dollar.

Besides China's currency policy, lawmakers also harshly criticized China's trade policy, above all non-tariff barriers, which they say is one of the main reasons for the U.S. huge trade deficit and loss of manufacturing jobs.

"China's value-added tax policies are designed to favor domestic producers at the expense of imports" from the U.S., fumed U.S. Rep. Phil English (R., Pa.). Also, U.S. exports are at a disadvantage compared with products of China's Asian neighboring countries because of tax breaks the get from Beijing, Mr. English said.
制造商和工会或联手投诉中国外汇及贸易政策

看似不太可能联手的美国工会联盟组织AFL-CIO与美国全国制造商协会(National Association of Manufacturers, NAM)可能将联合提起申诉，投诉中国对人民币实行管制以获取不公平的贸易优势。

NAM主席Jerry Jasinowski上周称，NAM与其他工业和农业组织将针对中国携手展开所谓贸易法301条款的贸易行动。申诉首先将提交至美国贸易代表办公室(U.S. Trade Representative's office)进行调查，但若要向世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization, WTO)提交，须先得到布什(Bush)政府的批准。

与代表1,300万美国工人的AFL-CIO联手，NAM提出的申诉就将获得广泛支持，从而令政府可能很难出于政治考虑加以拒绝。

据一位与政府关系密切的人士称，布什政府一些官员将乐于利用此申诉作为向中国施压的又一工具。

AFL-CIO国际经济部门副主管Thea Lee称，该组织很可能成为NAM所组建联盟中的一员。

AFL-CIO和NAM计划在周四开会商讨申诉事宜，会后将很快作出决定。一直以来，AFL-CIO对美国政府开放与中国的贸易往来的政策持批评态度，它们认为这一政策导致大量制造业职位流失。

Lee说，申诉是AFL-CIO所愿，该组织希望政府尽早采取较强硬的行动。

布什政府未能说服中国改变其外汇政策，是AFL-CIO决定与制造商贸易组织联手的动机之一。美国财政部长斯诺(John Snow)近期访问中国时曾敦促中国政府领导人重估人民币币值，但未能成功。Lee说，斯诺从北京无功而返，布什政府似乎也置之不理，AFL-CIO认为这极其不妥。

这并非AFL-CIO首次与NAM结盟。大约两年前，NAM曾组织了一个由90个制造业和工业贸易团体参与的联盟，敦促政府考虑让当时非常强势的美元略微走软。当时AFL-CIO也是联盟一员。

NAM发言人Scot Montrey称，还有其他贸易组织已表示极大兴趣加入联盟，共同提起申诉。

白宫就对中贸易将采取更强硬立场

White House Says It Will Adopt Tougher Stance on China Trade

The Bush administration stepped up its criticism of China's trade and currency policies, and officials pledged a more aggressive U.S. approach to try to force change.

Testifying before a congressional committee set up to monitor China's compliance with promises it made to the World Trade Organization, two senior U.S. officials said Wednesday that China has made only uneven progress in liberalizing trade and foreign-investment rules, frustrating U.S. negotiators and businesses.

"We do think we will make progress, but it is a tough row to hoe," Charles Freeman , a deputy assistant U.S. trade representative, told the Congressional-Executive Commission on China.

The comments are part of a growing number of complaints that Washington has directed against Beijing amid prodding from U.S. manufacturers, who say China's trade and currency policies have caused severe U.S. job losses. As calls for a free-floating yuan have increased, some U.S. lawmakers have even started an effort to place an across-the-board tariff on Chinese goods.

Henry Levine, a Commerce Department deputy assistant secretary for Asia-Pacific policy, was more strident in his criticism, saying that the government surveyed several U.S. manufacturers and other U.S. firms affected by China's policies and found a high level of anger toward those policies.

"During our round-table discussions, no country raised more attention as a source of concern than China -- our manufacturers complained about rampant piracy of intellectual property, pressure to transfer technology in conjunction with their investments, trade barriers and capital markets that are insulated from free-market pressures," Mr. Levine said.

As a result, the Commerce Department has adopted "an aggressive, multipronged approach" to China, he said. "We will, for one [thing], continue to target unfair trade practices wherever they occur. We are exploring the use of new tools to expand trade-promotion efforts with regard to China, and we are expanding our efforts to engage Chinese officials to make sure they get the rules right," he said.

Also Wednesday, the National Association of Manufacturers, a powerful political lobbying group in Washington, said it would press ahead to get China to stop manipulating its currency and planned to support a novel trade case on the issue under Section 301 of U.S. trade law, the Associated Press reported. If successful, such an effort would impose tariffs on billions of dollars in Chinese imports coming into the country.

NAM officials said the yuan, which has been held steady in exchange value at roughly 8.28 yuan to the dollar since 1994, should be as much as 40% stronger against the U.S. currency and that this undervaluation has given China a strong competitive advantage against U.S. companies.

NAM President Jerry Jasinowski said his group would pursue a Section 301 case, which could take a lengthy period of time because the WTO would have to rule in favor of the U.S., rather than seek a quicker fix of supporting congressional legislation that would unilaterally impose tariffs on China, the AP reported.

"We don't want to get into China bashing and protectionism," Mr. Jasinowski said. "We want to have a level playing field and that is a lot different."

The Bush administration last week persuaded other leading industrial countries at the Group of Seven meeting in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, to demand "more flexibility" in exchange rates, an implicit criticism of China's policies. Last week, a group of U.S. lawmakers introduced a nonbinding resolution urging President George W. Bush to use "all tools" to stop what they called China's "illegal currency manipulation."

At the commission hearing Wednesday, Rep. Jim Leach (R., Iowa) said he was troubled that China's fixed-rate exchange-rate system could "skew the landscape" of trade in favor of its own economy. Mr. Leach, a Republican, is the chairman of the Congressional-Executive Commission.

Some U.S. lawmakers contend China's trade policies account for most of the 2.7 million U.S. manufacturing jobs lost since July 2000. Private economists dispute that, noting that U.S. exports to China have actually risen much faster than imports since 2000.

"By some measures, China is more open to FDI [foreign direct investment] and foreign trade than the United States," said Yasheng Huang, an associate professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told the commission. "This is a remarkable fact and we need to keep this in mind when we judge China's implementation record. Even if China were to have failed to implement each single provision of the WTO accession document, we cannot draw the conclusion that this is a closed economy designed to keep out foreigners."
白宫就对中贸易将采取更强硬立场

布什(Bush)政府对中国贸易和货币政策的指责进一步升级，有政府官员要求采取更积极的措施迫使中国做出政策调整。

两名高级官员周三在国会中国问题执行委员会(Congressional-Executive Commission on China)作证时说，在放松对贸易和外商投资的管制方面，中国并没有取得应有的进展，令美国的谈判方及工商企业感到失望。国会中国问题执行委员会的任务是监督中国对加入世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization)时所做承诺的履行情况。

美国助理贸易代表帮办傅立民(Charles Freeman)对国会中国问题执行委员会说，“我们坚信能够让中国履行其承诺，但困难会很大”。

最近华盛顿方面有越来越多对中国不利的指控。美国制造商声称中国的贸易和汇率政策导致美国工作岗位流失。随著要求人民币自由浮动的呼声日渐高涨，一些美国国会议员甚至提出要对来自中国的进口商品征收惩罚性关税。

美国商务部(Commerce Department)主管亚太事务的副助理部长亨利?利文(Henry Levine)的言语更加尖锐，他说，政府对几家受到中国政策影响的美国制造商及其他一些公司进行了调查，发现他们对中国的政策十分不满。

利文说，“在我们的讨论中，没有哪个国家像中国这样让人头疼。我们的制造商都抱怨，中国的盗版现象猖獗，强迫外国公司投资时转让技术，并在贸易过程中设置壁垒，其资本市场也隔绝于世界自由市场的影响之外”。

鉴于此，他说，商务部已经采取了“一项更积极的、双管齐下”的办法来应对中国。“一方面，只要中国存在不公正的贸易行为，我们就会继续追究。另一方面，我们也正在探索使用一些新办法敦促中国进一步放松贸易管制，让中国官员严格履行入世承诺”。

美国全国制造商协会(National Association of Manufacturers, 简称NAM)也在周三表示，他们会继续向中国施压，要求其停止对人民币汇率的控制。据美联社(Associated Press)报导，NAM计划争取政府保护，即根据301条款(Section 301)对中国进行贸易制裁。如果成功的话，来自中国的进口商品每年要缴纳数十亿美元的关税。NAM是华盛顿一个实力强大的政府游说组织。

NAM人士说，人民币兑美元汇率至少应当升值40%，人为的贬值使中国产品较美国对手具有强大的竞争优势。自从1994年以来，人民币汇率基本保持在1美元兑换大约人民币8.28元的水平。

据美联社报导，NAM总裁杰里?贾西诺斯基(Jerry Jasinowski)说，NAM仍然打算通过寻求301条款来解决问题，这可能会耗费很长时间，因为美国需要世界贸易组织做出对其有利的裁定。相对来说，他们不主张立即通过国会立案单方面向中国征收惩罚性关税来解决问题。

贾西诺斯基说，“我们并不是要搞贸易保护主义，我们所要的是一个公平的竞技场，二者的差别很大”。

布什政府上周在迪拜会议上说服七大主要工业国(Group of Seven)在其发表的G7公告中，号召各国实行更加灵活的汇率政策，其实是暗中指责中国的汇率政策。一些美国国会议员上周还提出一项非强制性议案，呼吁布什政府动用一切力量反击中国“非法操控汇率”。

国会中国问题执行委员会主席、爱达荷州共和党议员吉木姆?林奇(Jim Leach)说，中国钩住美元的汇率制度可能使整个贸易形势都偏向中国，这令人非常担忧。

有些美国议员声称，中国的贸易政策是造成2000年7月以来美国制造业流失270万工作岗位的罪魁祸首。但有经济学家却指出，2000年以来，美国对中国出口量的增长事实上已远远快于进口量。

麻省理工学院(Massachusetts Institute of Technology)副教授黄亚生对国会中国问题执行委员会说，“从某些方面看，中国在外商直接投资和对外贸易方面比美国更加开放”。他说，“当我们要去判断中国是否遵守承诺的时候，这个重要的事实是不能被忽略的。即便中国没有逐条逐款地履行入世承诺，我们也不能断言说中国是一个要将外国企业拒之门外的经济体。”

中国坚定回击人民币政策的国际压力

China Defends Yuan Policy In Face of External Pressure

China lashed out again at mounting international pressure for it to revalue its currency, calling the matter an "internal affair" and warning other countries not to resort to protectionist measures as a way to punish Beijing. Even so, speculation in financial markets that China may eventually adjust its currency gained momentum.

The Chinese comments, in the official China Daily newspaper, reinforced the official line of policy makers that there is no intention to cave to international pressure and revalue the local currency, the yuan. The statements also suggest that Beijing is growing increasingly irritated with charges of currency manipulation and is starting to embrace a new tact: mounting an increasingly vigorous -- even confrontational -- response.

"The exchange rate system and policy are a country's internal affair and no other country has the right to interfere," the China Daily said Tuesday, quoting an unnamed spokesman for China's foreign-exchange regulator. "On this issue, China has always been independent and highly responsible."

Since the dispute about China's currency erupted a few months ago, Beijing has repeatedly stated its resolve not to adjust the value of the yuan, also known as the renminbi. At a meeting of the Group of Seven industralized nations over the weekend, a senior Chinese central banker, Li Ruogu, again defended China's position, saying full liberalization of the yuan remains a distant goal but one without a timetable. His comments were followed on Monday by a new pledge from China's top central banker, Zhou Xiaochuan, to maintain the yuan's value. And Tuesday, Finance Minister Jin Renqing also weighed in, restating China's stable currency policy.

Yet despite China's repeated pledges, many investors and even some Chinese believe that it is only a matter of time before the yuan strengthens. In a sign of that Tuesday, speculators and jittery investors snatched up financial contracts that allow them to hedge against a possible revaluation, or benefit from one if it were to happen.

One version of those contracts, known as nondeliverable forwards, or NDF, is traded in U.S. dollars but pegged to the yuan. In trading Tuesday, the benchmark one-year dollar-yuan NDF contract strengthened to a record 7.98 yuan per dollar. At that rate, market participants are betting the yuan will strengthen 3% against the dollar a year from now. Meanwhile, financial analysts in Shanghai and other cities say some overseas investors continue to move money into China as both a hedge and a bet on the future.

Though such speculative money flows -- from the NDF market to Chinese citizens who are converting U.S. dollars they hold into yuan -- have increased in recent months, they are minuscule compared with the total amount of cash circulating in China. And because of the tight controls China maintains over its currency, it remains almost impossible that these money flows could force Beijing to alter the value of its currency.

The yuan can be exchanged only for trade in goods and services. Exchanges for many conventional forms of investment, such as for stocks and bonds, generally aren't allowed. Those restrictions, in place for nearly a decade now, have allowed Beijing to keep the value of the yuan pegged at about 8.28 yuan per dollar, even as other world currencies fluctuate daily, and often sharply.

During the Asian financial crisis in 1997-98, many countries including the U.S. praised China for maintaining a stable currency. But views in much of the industrialized world have changed as China in recent years has become a magnet for foreign manufacturers. China's growth, which has brought it a huge surplus of foreign exchange, has spawned complaints, particularly from the U.S. and Japan, that jobs are being lost to a nation that manipulates its currency. As the U.S. heads toward a presidential election in November 2004, both Republicans and Democrats have started focusing on China and its currency policy as a way to deflect concern over sluggish economic growth, political analysts and economists say.

Until now, Chinese officials have largely couched the country's yuan policy under a banner of global economic stability. Yet other voices, such as the unnamed foreign-exchange regulator in the China Daily on Tuesday, appear to take a tougher tone, calling the value of the nation's currency a matter for China alone to decide.

The currency issue leaves Beijing with a quandary. China's economy expanded 8.2% during the first half of this year, and economists and policy makers say that it could be overheating. Yet as speculation about the yuan mounts, and foreign investors build more factories in China, the investment flooding in could make it hard for Beijing to cool growth later this year, creating new economic risks, analysts and economists say.
中国坚定回击人民币政策的国际压力

面对越来越大的要求重估人民币的国际压力，中国再次予以了回击，称汇率问题是一个国家的“内部事务”，并警告其他国家不要借贸易保护手段来惩罚北京。但即便如此，金融市场关于中国最终可能调整人民币汇率的猜测仍在不断升温。

刊登在官方报纸《中国日报》(China Daily) 上的有关评论再次强调了中国决策当局的立场，即无意屈服于国际压力重估人民币汇率。上述声明同时显示，中国政府对有关操纵汇率的指责越来越不满，并开始采取新的对策：采取更为有力甚至是对抗性的回应。

《中国日报》周二援引中国外汇管理当局一位未透露姓名的发言人的话报导称，“汇率体制和政策是一个国家的内部事务，其他国家无权干涉。在这个问题上，中国一向坚持独立自主和高度负责的态度。”

自从数月前围绕中国汇率问题的争论爆发以来，中国政府多次声明，决定不调整人民币汇率。在七大工业国(Group of Seven, G7)上周末举行的一个会议上，中国央行副行长李若谷再次表明了中国的立场，并称实现人民币的完全自由浮动是中国的长远目标，但没有具体的时间表。继李若谷发表了上述言论之后，中国央行行长周小川周一再次承诺将维持人民币汇率稳定。而周二，中国财政部部长金人庆也加入进来，重申了中国维持汇率稳定的政策。

尽管中国政府反复强调维持汇率的稳定，但许多投资者甚至包括一些中国人都认为，人民币的升值只是个时间问题。这种状况在周二的市场有所体现。投机人士和紧张不安的投资者纷纷买进金融合约，对冲人民币可能的升值风险或在升值时从中获利。

其中的一种合约就是美元兑人民币不可交割远期合约。周二，基准的1年期美元兑人民币不可交割合约涨至创纪录的人民币7.98元兑1美元，即市场人士预计人民币兑美元汇率1年后将上升3%。与此同时，上海和中国其他一些城市的金融分析师称，部分海外投资者继续将资金转移至中国以进行风险对冲并期待在未来获利。

不仅是不可交割远期市场表现如此，中国的居民也纷纷将手中持有的美元兑换成了人民币。但是，尽管这种投机性资金的流入近几个月不断增加，其金额与中国目前的流动现金总量相比，仍然微乎其微。而鉴于中国对人民币实行的严格监管，这种资金的不断流入会迫使中国政府调整人民币汇率的可能性几乎不存在。

人民币目前只在商品和服务贸易项目下可以自由兑换。而股票和债券等传统投资项目下的人民币一般不能自由兑换。这些限制措施目前已经实施了近十年，因此，尽管世界上的其他货币每天都在波动，有时甚至出现大幅波动，但中国政府仍然能够维持人民币兑美元的钉住汇率，即1美元兑大约人民币8.28元。

在1997-98年亚洲金融危机期间，中国维持了稳定的币值，并因此得到了包括美国在内的很多国家的赞誉。但近年中国逐渐成为外国制造商趋之若鹜的国家，很多工业发达国家的看法也随之转变。中国的经济增长为之积累了巨额外汇盈余，同时也招致了怨言，尤其是美国和日本方面，他们抱怨中国控制汇率导致它们丢掉了很多工作岗位。政治分析员和经济学家称，随著美国2004年11月总统大选的临近，共和党和民主党均开始焦距中国及其货币政策，以此转移人们对美国国内疲软经济增长的注意力。

直至目前，中国有关官员的言论主要是委婉的声称维持人民币汇率稳定的政策有利于全球的经济稳定。不过，包括《中国日报》报导的那位外汇管理当局发言人在内的一些人士的语气似乎开始变得强硬，称人民币的价值应该由中国自主决定。

汇率问题使中国陷入了两难境地。今年上半年，中国的经济增长率为8.2%，经济学家和决策人士表示，经济发展已经过热。分析人士和经济学家称，对人民币的投机活动仍在继续，而外国投资者在中国又开设了更多的工厂，投资的大量流入使得中国政府难以在年内为经济的增长降温，从而引发了新的经济风险。