投资房地产的捷径

Forget Fixing Leaky Toilets: REITs Offer a Better Way To Invest in Rental Property

Location, location, location.

Looking to invest in rental real estate? Here's my advice on location: Try the stock pages.

I get a steady stream of e-mails from readers, asking about the virtues of investing in apartments and vacation homes. My response: If you really want to invest in rental real estate, buy equity real-estate investment trusts, or REITs, which make their money by purchasing and then renting out offices, shopping centers, apartments and other properties.

To be sure, if you invest in rental property, you could increase your returns with leverage and your rental income may dwarf the dividends you receive from REITs. Even so, I would still lean toward REITs, because there are fewer hassles, less risk and far lower costs.

Weighing Returns

Equity REITs have lately been on a tear, with share prices up a cumulative 31% over the 3? years through June 30, according to Washington's National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts.

But property prices have also been rising smartly. If you had bought a rental property in late 1999 and it appreciated at the same rate as other homes, you would have made 28% over the same 3?-year stretch, according to home-finance corporation Freddie Mac.

That 28% gain, however, isn't really comparable to the 31% return from equity REITs. One reason: REIT returns benefited from leverage. Currently, REITs have debt equal to a little under 50% of their total capitalization. That's like owning a $200,000 property with $100,000 left on the mortgage.

When folks buy rental properties, they often also use leverage. Suppose that, 3? years ago, you put down $100,000 on a $200,000 house and the home's value climbed 28%, to $256,000. Thanks to the leverage involved, your gain would be 56%, with your $100,000 down payment growing to $156,000.

Unfortunately, however, you wouldn't have pocketed nearly that much. Why not? First, there would be the often-exorbitant cost of first buying and later selling the property. Second, that leverage would come at a cost, in the form of hefty monthly mortgage payments.

People sometimes argue that rental properties are a better investment than REITs, because you can employ more leverage. But this argument doesn't impress Chris Mayer, a finance professor at New York's Columbia Business School. He points out that, if you really want a leveraged play on real estate, you could open a margin account at your favorite brokerage firm and buy REITs with borrowed money.

"To which people say, that's really risky," Prof. Mayer recounts. "To which I say, it isn't any more risky than taking out an 80% loan on a piece of rental property."

Comparing Yields

While price appreciation gets all the attention, the biggest gain from both REITs and rental property is likely to be the yield. That yield is the dividends you receive from your REITs and the rent you get from your tenants.
Currently, equity REITs yield an average 6%. It doesn't cost much to collect that yield. If you invest through a no-load REIT mutual fund, there's no expense when buying and selling. Your only costs are the fund's annual expenses and trading costs, plus taxes if you held your fund outside of a retirement account.

What about rental property? The yield will vary from city to city. If you rent out a single-family home in Los Angeles, you might collect annual income equal to 6% of the property's value, figures James Joseph, owner of Century 21 Grisham-Joseph in Whittier, Calif. Meanwhile, Sean Conlon, co-founder of Century 21 Sussex & Reilly in Chicago, figures the yield in his city might be closer to 7%.

But once again, both leverage and costs come into play. If you took out a mortgage to buy your rental property, the yield as a percentage of your down payment would be higher than this 6% or 7%. But unfortunately, you would also face a truckload of ongoing expenses, including maintenance costs, homeowner's insurance and taxes. Add it up, and I suspect a lot of rental-property owners will find they could fare just as well with REITs.

Still, if you buy rental properties in depressed real-estate markets, the yields could be much higher than the 6% and 7% cited above. But high rents don't necessarily translate into high total returns. Indeed, a hefty yield may indicate that home prices won't rise a whole lot.

Considering Risk

While you can't be sure whether REITs or rental properties will perform better, REITs do have one undeniable advantage: They are a lot less risky.

If you invest in a rental property, you are banking a ton of money on a single piece of real estate, rather than getting the diversification of REITs. Moreover, there is the problem of collecting those rent checks. "If it takes you three months to evict a tenant, you're out a quarter of that year's return," Prof. Mayer notes.

The bottom line: Owning REITs is not only less risky, but it also involves far fewer hassles. "It's easy to describe the difference" between REITs and rental properties, says William Bernstein , an investment adviser in North Bend, Ore. "One is an investment and the other is a job. It all depends on your tolerance for broken toilet bowls and psychopathic tenants."
投资房地产的捷径

你想投资房地产租赁业务吗？我的建议是，到证券的网页上查看一下吧。

我源源不断地收到读者来信，询问投资公寓和度假村有什么好处。我的回答是：如果你真希望投资房地产租赁业务，就买进房地产投资信托(REIT)证券产品，这些信托投资公司在购置了写字楼、购物中心、公寓等地产后将其出租获利。

诚然，如果你有志于房地产租赁，可以通过融资租赁的方式提高回报，而你的租金收益可能让REIT的分红相形见绌。即便如此，我仍更青睐REIT，因为它风险更小，成本更低，也更省心。

权衡回报率

据国家房地产投资信托协会(National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts)统计，REIT证券一路上涨，在截至6月30日的三年半里攀升了31%。

但房地产价格上涨得也很厉害。根据联邦住房贷款抵押公司(Freddie Mac)提供的数据，如果你在1999年末购置了一套用于出租的房产，且它的升值率与其他房屋相同，你在过去的3年半里回报率将是28%。

然而，这28%的涨幅与REIT证券的31%却不可同日而语。其中一方面原因是，REIT的回报率也从杠杆原理中受益。目前，债务在REIT的总股本中所占比例略低于50%。打个比方来说，这就像拥有20万美元的房地产，但其中有10万美元是抵押贷款。

人们在购买出租房地产时往往会借助杠杆融资的力量。设想一下，你3年半前在一幢价值20万美元的房子中投入了10万美元，现在这套房子升值28%至25.6万美元。由于利用了杠杆原理，你的回报率将是56%，因为你首期支付的10万美元目前已经升值至15.6万美元。

而不幸的是，这些钱并不能全部落入你的腰包。为什么呢？首先，在最初购房时除首付款外还要交纳高额费用，最后将其出售时仍是如此。其次，运用杠杆是有偿的，通常会导致高额的月供。

有人会说，出租房地产是比REIT更好的投资形式，因为投资者可以更多利用杠杆的作用。但纽约的哥伦比亚商学院(Columbia Business School)金融教授梅尔(Chris Mayer)并不认同这种说法。他指出，如果投资者真的希望在房地产投资上利用杠杆原理，可以在自己最满意的经纪公司开设一个融资帐户，借款买进REIT。

Mayer教授说：“人们会说，这样风险太高；可我要说，它的风险绝不会比八成按揭购买一处房产更高。”

对比收益率

尽管房地产的升值吸引了人们的全部注意力，但无论REIT还是出租房地产，收益率都是所得的最主要项目，即你从REIT和出租房地产中分得的红利。

目前，REIT证券的平均收益率为6%。要达到这样的收益率并不需要付出多高的成本。如果你投资于资产净值出售的共同基金，在买进和卖出时是无需花费的，唯一需要付出的就是基金的年度支出和交易成本。如果你将该基金放在退休金帐户之外，还要交纳税金。

出租房地产的情况又是怎样呢？不同的城市，收益率也各不相同。加州惠蒂尔Century 21 Grisham-Joseph公司所有人约瑟夫(James Joseph)表示，如果你在洛杉矶出租一套供单一家庭居住的房屋，可以按房产价值的6%获得年收益。而芝加哥Century 21 Sussex & Reilly的联合创始人康伦(Sean Conlon)认为，在芝加哥同样的房产收益率可能接近7%。

但在这里仍要计入杠杆效应和相应的成本。如果你办理抵押贷款购置用于出租的房地产，收益率将高于首付款的6%或7%。但不幸的是，你还要支付各种各样的费用，包括维护成本、房主保险和房产税。将这些项目加起来，我猜很多出租房地产的业主会发现买进REIT其实同样合算。

如果你在楼市低迷的状况下购置了这些房地产，收益率还会比上述的6%和7%高得多。但高租金并不一定能够带来高的总回报率。的确，收益率直线上涨可能表明房价不会无休止地攀升。

兼顾风险

你可能无法断定REIT和出租房地产哪一个表现更出色，但REIT的确有个无可辩驳的优势：它的风险要小得多。

如果你投资于房地产租赁，将把大量的资金押在一个单一的房产项目上，而REIT则能使你的投资多样化。另外，收租金也是个问题。梅尔教授强调，如果你花三个月才将一个租户请走，就要损失一年收入的四分之一。

最关键的是，REIT不仅风险更小，而且避免了许多麻烦。俄勒冈州North Bend公司投资顾问William Bernstein说：“REIT和出租房地产之间的差别说起来非常简单：一个是投资，另一个则是苦差事。当然这完全取决于你对抽水马桶开裂和精神变态房客的忍耐力。”

中国巨额资金催生房地产业的繁荣

Chinese Are Pouring Capital Into Real Estate Boom


IT'S A HEADY TIME to be a property developer in China. Consider scenes from the current boom: In early July, a restored villa in the heart of Shanghai's French Concession sold for 4 million renminbi ($483,000). One week later, it resold for 5 million renminbi -- 25% more. Nearby, a giant concrete slab awaits the construction of expensive villas for which Hong Kong-based developer Shui On already has a waiting list. Even in inland Chongqing, a city where the market for modern private housing is in its infancy, a local developer offered 900 units in a yet-to-be-built housing complex in July. Two days before the sales date, 3,000 people showed up to buy.

But the run-up in prices, the increasingly speculative nature of demand and a rapid spike in the banking system's exposure to the industry have all begun ringing alarm bells about the boom's sustainability -- and the implications for the economy if it ends. Central government authorities have in recent weeks tried to tighten credit to numerous industries, including property. In June, the central bank -- the People's Bank of China (PBOC) -- announced guidelines for local authorities to limit the extension of credit to new building projects and require developers to wait until they're two-thirds finished before offering them for sale or lease.

Authorities have to walk a tightrope trying to stop the boom getting further out of hand while trying to keep it from collapsing. Given decentralized planning and a corrupt and poorly managed banking system, it's a delicate balancing act. In the Shanghai planning bureau, a senior official responds to a question about the PBOC guidelines to curtail credit. From his desk he produces a more recent document from the State Council, which outranks the central bank, declaring property a "pillar industry" whose development must be supported. "The overheating problem hasn't happened in Shanghai," insists the official, who wished to remain anonymous.

In spite of the signs of a bubble, the rapid growth of credit to the property sector suggests that the banking system is incapable of managing its risks. "It's what they teach in Banking 101," a China-based banking consultant says. "Developers develop. It's what they do when they get up in the morning. It's what they do until the bankers tell them they can't have any more money to do it." For now, neither China's banking system nor its regulators have proved able to rein them in.

The dangers are clear. China's last property collapse eight years ago added huge amounts to banks' bad-loan tallies. And this time, the property sector is vastly more developed -- and thus hugely more important to the overall economy. Some 17% of new bank loans now are related to property, an all-time high, so if another bust is big enough, it would have severe implications. Foremost would be another raft of bad loans for the banking system. But a major bust would also hit affiliated industries like cement and steel, jobs in construction, and produce the spectre of a middle class disaffected by a drop in home values.

Two factors are feeding such fears. For one, the construction boom isn't just in Beijing and Shanghai, where incomes and investments are high. It's nationwide. Some of the most explosive growth in residential housing stock is in Guangdong province, where Andy Xie, Morgan Stanley's chief China economist, estimates construction is around 70% greater than it was a year ago. On the outskirts of nearly every smaller city around the country, housing projects are going up and commanding rising prices. The riverfront of Hefei, the capital of poor, inland Anhui province, is lined with villas for sale at 4,000 renminbi per square metre. In Lijiang, a mountainous tourist town in western Yunnan province, streets in the new city are full of modern housing blocks.

Meanwhile, in China's developed markets demand is increasingly speculative. In Shanghai, estimates of the rise in housing prices vary, but most peg it at 30%-40% over the past two years. Chris Wu, head of marketing for Shui On, figures that in the first half of this year 40% of buyers of flats priced above 12,000 renminbi per square metre -- the solid upper middle-class of the market -- were foreign. Many more were Chinese buyers from outside Shanghai. Wu, however, isn't worried about his own company's high-profile developments. They're in the city centre, on some of Shanghai's most valuable land where housing is increasingly tight, and Shui On's return from a previous residential development was high.

But throughout the city, the percentage of flats that are rented or left vacant is growing. And though rents are rising in some niche areas, mainly in the city centre, they're falling elsewhere. "Don't buy anything where you absolutely depend on a rental income to pay your mortgage," says Sam Crispin, an independent property consultant in Shanghai.

That is reminiscent of the days just before the end of Hong Kong's property boom, when frenzied buyers banked on expected capital appreciation rather than rental incomes. Of course, there are plenty of reasons to believe Shanghai and Beijing of 2003 aren't like Hong Kong, where residential property values have fallen some 65% since 1997. And there are real reasons for China's property boom. Housing demand is driven by rising incomes, strong economic growth, a fundamental shift from government to private housing and the fact that property is still one of the few valuable assets people can legally invest in. Office space in top-level buildings, in most cities, is in short supply. Shui On puts occupancy in Shanghai's Grade-A buildings at 91%.

Meanwhile, several factors in Shanghai are slowing the supply of new land in the city centre. The clearing of land in the central area has declined from last year's heights following protests by homeowners, helping to limit supply of prime housing stock. And developers are waiting on tenterhooks for a new set of plans, expected in October, to restrict the amount of construction allowed on plots and limit the construction of tall buildings. Overall, an official in the municipal planning bureau says, the amount of land to be tendered in central districts will fall this year, as the city opts to release more in outlying areas to build more lower-income housing.

So for buyers and their agents, optimism is pervasive in Shanghai and Beijing, and money is flooding in from both foreign and domestic investors. "It looks like a bubble, but you don't know where in the bubble it is," says Crispin. With supply limited and wealthy investors with no other place to put their money pouring in, he says, "if it is a bubble, there's going to be a bigger bubble in two to three years."

Either way, flats on the outskirts of Shanghai now sell at around 5,000 renminbi per square metre -- levels that force many buyers to commit more than 60% of their incomes to mortgage payments. Such conditions will put pressure on high-cost economic centres like Shanghai to keep incomes rising, even as they watch more investment moving into nearby cities where wages are lower. And if prices on the low end increase any more, substantial portions of the Shanghai population won't be able to afford a home. In a telling warning, James Zeng, a property agent with Century 21 in Shanghai, advises a prospective buyer against entering the market as an investment because prices are likely to fall in coming months.

How bad would a drop have to be to cause serious disruption? Start with China's banks. Beginning last year, spurred by the economy's growth and a seeming lack of regulatory oversight, they began extending enormous amounts of new loans. In the first half of 2003, the growth in credit was a whopping 36% of GDP. With a large amount of capital being funnelled into property development, "in general we should be very worried," says Nicholas Lardy, a Chinese banking specialist at the Institute of International Economics in Washington. "It's very hard to read this as anything other than extremely bad for the commercialization of the banking system."
中国巨额资金催生房地产业的繁荣

中国的房地产开发商们正处于兴奋期。看一下当前的繁荣景象吧。7月初，位于上海法国花园(French Concession)中心地带的一座修缮一新的别墅以人民币400万元（合48.3万美元）售出。一周之后，该别墅以500万元的价格被转手，回报率超过25%。而附近地区正在建设一个昂贵的别墅区，已经有大量的买主在等待向开发商－香港瑞安建业(Shui On)购买这些别墅。即使是在现代私有住宅市场仍处于初期阶段的内陆城市重庆，一家当地的开发商7月份推出900套尚未建设的住宅，在正式售楼的前两天，就有3,000人表示了购买意向。

但是住房价格的飙升、投机性需求的日益增长以及银行系统对房地产业融资的快速攀升均已开始对房地产业能否持续繁荣，以及如果繁荣中止将产生的经济影响敲响了警钟。最近几周，中央政府收缩了对包括房地产在内的各行业的信贷额度。6月份，中国央行－中国人民银行(People's Bank of China)向各地商业银行发出《关于进一步加强房地产信贷业务管理通知》，以限制银行向新住宅项目的贷款额度，并要求开发商在项目完工三分之二以前，不得将所开发的楼盘出售或出租。

各地政府也不得不谨慎从事，在努力避免房地产业发展过快以至管理失控的同时，还要防止因管制过严而出现衰退。鉴于各地政府可以自行制定计划以及银行系统存在腐败和管理不善等问题，若想两全其美实在是一种高超的管理艺术。上海规划局(Shanghai planning bureau)的一位高级官员在回答有关央行加强房地产信贷通知时坚称，上海没有房地产过热的问题，并从桌上拿出一份较央行通知更新发布的国务院(State Council)文件，文件指出，房地产业是国民经济的支柱产业，各地政府必须对其发展予以支持。国务院的行政管理地位在中国人民银行之上。

鉴于已经出现泡沫迹象，房地产领域贷款的迅速增加表明，银行系统现已无法管理其面临的风险。中国大陆的一位银行咨询师称，开发商们加大了银行系统的风险。每天早起，他们就开始忙于从银行得到贷款，直到银行告诉他们已无法提供更多的资金。目前，无论是中国大陆的银行系统还是银行监管部门都无法证明能够控制房地产业的信贷风险。

危机一目了然。8年前，中国大陆房地产业的崩溃使银行增加了巨额坏帐。而现在，房地产业的发展规模已更为庞大，对整个国民经济的影响也更加举足轻重。目前，银行17%的新增贷款涉及房地产业，贷款数量已处于历史最高水平。因此，如果房地产业再次陷入低谷，其影响将十分巨大，并由此可能产生严重后果。首先，将是银行系统再次面临巨额坏帐。但是一场严重的危机还可能使水泥、钢材等相关行业以及建筑市场就业状况遭受打击，并使中产阶级因住宅价值下降而产生不满情绪。

有两项因素使政府对上述问题的担忧日益加重。其中之一是：开发过热的现象并不仅仅存在于收入和投资水平都在国内高踞榜首的北京和上海，而是遍布全国。住宅市场增长最快的部分地区位于广东省。对此，摩根士丹利的首席中国经济师谢国忠(Andy Xie)预计，广东省的住房建筑规模已较一年前增长了70%左右。目前，全国各地几乎每一个小型城市的郊区，住宅项目正在拔地而起并且售价越来越高。在贫穷的内地安徽省省会合肥，沿河一带地区随处可见价格在每平方米4,000元的待售别墅。云南省西部旅游城市丽江，大街小巷也林立著现代化的住宅大厦。

与此同时，发达地区的房地产市场上，投机性购房需求正日益增加。在上海，虽然对住房价格涨幅的估计有所不同，但多数人认为，房产价格已在过去两年中上涨了30%-40%左右。瑞安建业市场部负责人Chris Wu认为，今年上半年，价格超过每平方米1.2万元的高档公寓的购买者的40%是外商。多数买家是上海以外地区的中国居民。目前，Wu并不担心瑞安建业广受瞩目的开发项目。这些项目均位于上海市中心，是上海土地价格最高、开发空间日益紧张的部分地区。瑞安建业前期开发的住宅项目投资回报率颇高。

但是整个上海市，商品房的出租或空置比例正日益上升。并且虽然部分少数地区的租金上涨（多数位于市中心），但其他地区的租金正处于下降势头。上海一位独立地产咨询师萨姆?克里斯宾(Sam Crispin)表示，投资者不要购买任何需要完全依赖租金才能偿还贷款的房产。

目前上海的情况使人回想起香港房地产市场繁荣时期结束前的景象。当时，人们因预计资本升值而狂热购买房产。当然，同样有足够的理由使人相信，2003年的北京和上海房地产市场的繁荣有别于香港，自1997年以来，香港的住宅价格已经下降了65%左右。而且，中国大陆地产市场的繁荣有其内在原因。收入日益增加、经济发展强劲、公房分配向私人购房的根本性转变以及住房仍是人们可以合法投资的少数资产的现实推高了住房市场的需求。多数城市的高档写字楼市场至今供不应求。瑞安建业在上海甲级写字楼市场的入住率为91%。

与此同时，数项因素迫使上海市中心用于新开房产的土地供应有所减缓。因住宅拥有者的抗议，市中心地区的土地清理数量已低于去年高点，从而在一定程度上限制了高档住宅项目的供应。目前，房地产开发商们正焦虑不安地等待著预定在10月份公布的系列规划，这些新规划将限制高档楼盘的开发数量和建设高层建筑。上海市规划局的一位官员称，总而言之，今年，市中心地区可拍卖的土地数量将有所下降，同时上海将转而在城边地区开发更多的低价住宅。

Crispin表示，截至目前，住房购买者及其代理人普遍对上海和北京的市场前景持乐观态度，国外和国内投资者的资金正源源不断的流入这两个地区。泡沫似乎存在，但没人知道泡沫在何处。由于供应有限以及富余的投资者缺少其他的投资渠道，即使真有泡沫，2-3年内，还会形成更大的泡沫。

目前，上海城边地区的住宅售价为每平方米5,000元人民币左右。该水平已迫使许多购房者将超过60%的收入用于偿还贷款。类似情况已使上海等高成本经济中心地区保持收入增长造成了压力，即使是这些城市眼看著更多的投资涌入附近工资水平较低的城市。如果低档住宅价格继续上涨，相当数量的上海居民将无力支付房款。21世纪(Century 21)驻上海的地产代理人James Zeng提醒潜在的购房者，不要将购买住宅作为一种投资，因为未来数月内，住房价格可能出现回落。

房产价格下跌将造成怎样严重的破坏局面？首先受害的将是中国的各家银行。从去年开始，受经济增长刺激以及全方适度监管，各银行开始大量发放新贷款。2003年上半年，新增贷款额已达到GDP的36%。Institute of International Economics驻华盛顿的一位中国银行专家称，大量资金涌入房地产市场，这是非常令人担忧的事情。他称，这将对银行系统的商业化过程造成极为严重的冲击。