China's Scramble to Secure Siberian Oil Deal Puts It In Competition With Japan
As Chinese crude-oil imports break records, China is scrambling to salvage a multibillion-dollar pipeline project with Russia that promises a steady supply from rich Siberian oil fields just beyond its borders.
But energy-hungry Japan wants the pipeline for itself, and the Chinese deal remains strewn with obstacles, a person familiar with the talks said.
Chinese and Japanese officials have been wooing Moscow for months. With the arrival of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov in Beijing, a series of high-level meetings is set to intensify the struggle -- and could undermine an evolving strategic relationship between the two, plus a group of central Asian nations, that includes economic development and the fight against terrorism. The Russian prime minister is also scheduled to visit Japan this year.
"This is a troublesome matter," said Chen Fengying, a research professor at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, a Beijing think tank linked to the Ministry of State Security. "China needs this project. And Russia needs this project."
China's hot economic growth has stoked its appetite for oil, prompting the search for new suppliers. China's oil imports rose 26% for the first eight months of 2003 from a year earlier, to 57.42 million metric tons, a historical high, Chinese customs said Monday. China is expected to import a record 80 million tons of crude oil this year, up from 70 million tons in 2002. As Beijing seeks to reduce supply from the volatile Middle East, Russia has become China's seventh-largest source of crude oil. In the first eight months, imports from Russia jumped 80% to 3.1 million metric tons, according to Chinese customs.
But hopes have dimmed for the potential centerpiece of this new energy partnership. Under a framework agreement, the 2,400-kilometer oil pipeline would stretch from the eastern Siberian region of Angarsk to China's refineries in Daqing in the northeast. In May, Chinese President Hu Jintao and Russian President Vladimir Putin both endorsed the $2.5 billion pipeline project. Yet frequent, and sometimes profanity-laced, talks at lower levels have failed to resolve differences in views on the pipeline's construction and the price for oil, said a person familiar with the deal. On Sunday, a top Chinese official denied that Russia planned to abort the project.
"The Russian government has emphasized to the Chinese side that its position to give priority to building the Angarsk-Daqing pipeline has not changed," China's Business Post newspaper reported, citing Zhang Guobao, deputy head of China's National Development and Reform Commission. The commission didn't respond Monday to requests for comment on the project.
During his Beijing visit, Mr. Kasyanov, the Russian prime minister, will join China and Central Asian nations for talks on economic cooperation and the fight against terrorism. For Russia and China, the pipeline has become a focus in efforts to strengthen trade ties. Failure to secure a pact could deal a serious blow to bilateral political and economic relations, said Philip Andrews-Speed, head of the Center for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy at Scotland's University of Dundee. "From the Chinese perspective, Russia just seems unable to deliver anything of substance," he said.
At the same time, Russia's continued interest in Japan's proposal is fueling optimism in Tokyo. Within the next week, Japan and Russia are expected to hold a third round of talks in two months to discuss another potential route, from Angarsk to the Russian Far East port city of Nakhodka, near Vladivostok and across the Sea of Japan from the Japanese northern island of Hokkaido. A working group of Japanese and Russian government officials will meet in Moscow to look into possible financing and construction arrangements, said a Japanese government official close to those talks.
Japan, which like China is heavily dependent on Middle East imports, has enticed Russia with the prospects of not only buying oil for its own markets, but helping Russia export to other countries from Nakhodka. That way, Russia wouldn't need to rely on China, with which it shares a contentious past, as a sole customer. Tokyo is also promising to foot much of the pipeline's construction costs.
"We feel the wind from Russia is blowing our way now," said an official at Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Russia says it is still studying the economic feasibility of the Chinese and Japanese routes. OAO Yukos, the Russian oil company promoting the Chinese line, said Monday that the Russian government would suffer major tax-revenue losses because of delays in constructing the China pipeline and another one to Russia's far north.
Behind China's concerted efforts to lock in Russian oil imports is its waning domestic supply. The country's largest field, Daqing, plans sharp cuts in production to prolong its life, said a senior Daqing engineer. Last year, Daqing's crude-oil output sank to less than 50 million tons for the first time in two decades.
中日角逐俄罗斯输油管项目
随著中国原油进口量刷新历史纪录，中国正为一条价值数十亿美元的输油管道工程积极争取。这条输油管道可以使中国获得西伯利亚地区稳定的石油供应，中国迫切希望能与俄罗斯达成这笔交易。
但据知情人士透露，能源紧缺的日本也希望能获得这条输油管道项目，中国要想达成这笔交易仍面临诸多困难。
几个月以来，中国和日本的官员频频向莫斯科摇动橄榄枝。俄罗斯总理卡西亚诺夫(Mikhail Kasyanov)现已抵达北京 ，随后将有一系列高层会晤，中、日两国的争夺将变得更加激烈，并有可能削弱双方以及上海合作组织成员国间不断发展的战略合作伙伴关系。上海合作组织是一个由中国、俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦等中亚六国组成的组织，旨在共同促进经济发展，打击恐怖主义。俄罗斯总理今年还打算访问日本。
中国现代国际关系研究所(China Institute of Contemporary International Relations)研究员陈凤英（音译）说，这是个很棘手的问题。中国现代国际关系研究所是中国国家安全部(Ministry of State Security)下属的智囊机构。“中国和日本都需要这个项目”。
中国经济的快速发展导致石油供不应求，因此不得不寻找新的石油供应渠道。中国海关周一公布的数据显示，今年前8个月，中国石油进口量较上年同期增长了26%，至5,742万吨，创历史最高纪录。预计今年的总进口量将达到创纪录的8,000万吨，超过2002年的7,000万吨。由于中东局势动荡，北京方面希望减少从该地区的石油进口，这样俄罗斯就成为中国的第七大石油供应国。中国海关数据显示，中国从俄罗斯进口的石油数量今年前8个月大幅增长80%至310万吨。
这个输油管道项目是中俄能源伙伴关系的核心，但达成交易的希望现在已开始减弱。根据框架协议，这条长达2,400公里的输油管道从西伯利亚安加尔斯克(Angarsk)延伸到中国大庆。今年5月，中国国家主席胡锦涛与俄罗斯总统普京(Vladimir Putin)已就这个价值25亿美元的项目签署了协议。但据知情人士透露，低层官员在之后举行的多次会谈中无法就管道建设和石油价格等问题达成一致，会谈有时甚至出现激烈争吵的局面。一位中国高级官员周日否认俄罗斯有放弃合作的打算。
《财经时报》援引中国国家发展改革委员会(National Development and Reform Commission)副主任张国宝的话称，俄罗斯政府已经向中方强调，优先考虑安加尔斯克至大庆输油管道的立场没有改变。
卡西亚诺夫访华期间将与中国以及中亚5国就经济合作与打击恐怖主义问题进行磋商。对俄罗斯和中国而言，这条输油管道已经成为双方能否加强贸易合作的关键环节。位于苏格兰的丹地大学(University of Dundee)能源、石油和矿产法律政策研究中心主任飞利浦?安德鲁思-斯匹德(Philip Andrews-Speed)说，这项交易如果失败，将对中俄双边政治和经贸合作造成沉重打击。“在中国看来，除了石油之外，俄罗斯不能为其带来任何实质利益，”他说。
与此同时，俄罗斯对日本的提议兴趣渐浓，使东京方面乐观情绪大增。日本和俄罗斯下周内将就建造从安加尔斯克到俄罗斯远东港口城市那霍德卡(Nakhodka)的另一条输油管道进行两个月来的第三轮谈判。据日本方面的知情人士透露，由日本和俄罗斯官员组成的一个工作组将在莫斯科进行会晤，探讨可能的融资和建设协议。
和中国一样，日本也一直严重依赖中东的石油进口。为了吸引俄罗斯，日本提出了颇为丰厚的条件，不仅承诺从俄罗斯进口本国市场所需的石油，还答应帮助俄罗斯将其石油通过那霍德卡出口到其他国家和地区。这样，俄罗斯就不需要指望中国这个唯一的客户了，而且俄罗斯与中国以前的合作中也总是争争吵吵。东京方面还同意承担大部分管道建设成本。
日本外务省(Ministry of Foreign Affairs)一位官员说，“我觉得俄罗斯现在倾向于和我们合作了”。
俄罗斯称，目前正在分别研究这两条输油管道的经济可行性。支持修建到中国大庆管道的俄罗斯石油公司OAO Yukos周一表示，俄罗斯政府拖延修建到中国以及另外一条到俄罗斯北部的石油管道，将损失大笔税收收入。
中国之所以全力以赴争取俄罗斯石油管道项目，是因为其国内的石油供给日益减少。大庆油田一位高级工程师说，为了延长开采年限，他们计划削减产量。大庆油田是中国储量最丰富的油田，但其2002年的产量下降至不足5,000万吨，为20年来的头一次。
