ECB Watch: ECB Ponders Mixed Signals About Recovery
The European Central Bank's Governing Council met Thursday to ponder an ambiguous and increasingly elusive recovery in the 12-nation currency area.
As expected, since this was not a policy-making meeting, the council took no action.
But it faces a complicated decision at its next rate setting meeting, set for Oct. 2, and at meetings scheduled for Nov. 6 and Dec. 4, on whether to let a presumed future recovery take its course, or lower rates again to try to ensure an upturn.
In recent weeks, the indicators of the direction of the economy have been contradictory.
On the positive side, business and consumer confidence indexes have been rising steadily. On Tuesday, for example, Germany's ZEW Research Institute reported that business confidence rose 8.4 points to 60.9 in September, the ninth increase in a row.
But negative signals abound as well. Jobless rates in the euro zone have remained stubbornly high, and results for the first half of this year show the economy stagnated.
On Tuesday, ECB governing council member Matti Vanhala said there is a risk that the euro zone "will be stuck with disappointingly low growth rates, for 2003 and also for the next two years."
The disappointing results and - in some cases - gloomy projections run contrary to earlier projections. A year ago the ECB and many others were predicting a recovery - defined as an annual growth rate approaching the 12-nation currency area's potential of 2.0%-2.5% - by the second half of this year.
Expectations of a decisive upturn were subsequently postponed to the first half of 2004, and now are seen only in the second half of next year.
In addition to pushing back the projected date of recovery, the ECB has increasingly emphasized the risks to its forecast, suggesting that it is not sure at all that a recovery will take hold next year, either.
The risks include the possibility of higher oil prices, the chance that the euro will again shoot up against the dollar and widening fiscal deficits in France and Germany.
When it comes to countering these risks, the ECB "can just talk," said Michael Schubert, senior economist for Commerzbank in Frankfurt.
"The euro area economy is like an ill person," he added. "The ECB has provided its own medicine, and other doctors now have to do their part as well to cure the patient."
Minimizing Risks
As part of its lobbying effort on behalf of the euro, the ECB is pressing for Asian governments to remove the peg of their currencies to the U.S. dollar, so that Asian currencies can do some of the appreciating if the U.S. dollar falls.
The currency peg issue is under discussion this week at meetings of the International Monetary Fund in Dubai. Asian governments have so far resisted calls to allow their currencies to gain strength against the dollar.
The ECB has also pushed tirelessly for tighter fiscal discipline in France and Germany, among others, as a way to boost confidence in the euro and in the European economy.
The contentious subject of fiscal discipline - adherence to the E.U.'s Stability and Growth Pact - may be closer to a solution than the issue of Asian currencies.
An emerging compromise might allow France and Germany to exceed the limits of the agreement in the short term in exchange for measures to control spending in the long term by reducing health care, unemployment and pension benefits for future generations.
"I think they are moving in that direction," said Jose Alzola, director of Western Europe markets in the economic and monetary analysis division of Citigroup in London.
Remarks after last weekend's meeting of the E.U.'s economic and finance ministers "suggested that some solution will be found," he said.
The ECB is not the only one to wonder what the economic indicators are saying about a recovery. Private-sector analysts are drawing opposite conclusions from the available evidence.
"The ECB has made clear it keeps an easing bias," according to Citigroup's Alzola. "The fact of emphasizing that recovery will be gradual, and that risks are on the downside, means that they are ready to cut if things go worse than expected."
Not so, according to Commerzbank's Schubert. "The ECB will not lower interest rates again; they are satisfied with moderate recovery," he said. "The ECB will keep on saying that there could be better figures, but that the problem is due to structural factors."
欧洲央行潜心破解经济复苏信号
欧洲央行管理委员会(European Central Bank's Governing Council)周四召开会议，就欧元区经济不够明确的、越来越令人困惑的复苏进行反思。不出所料，由于本次会议并非政策制定会议，因而委员会并未采取任何实际行动。
但在以后的利率政策会议上，对于一个建立在推测基础之上的未来的复苏，究竟是采取顺其自然的态度，还是再度下调利率，为确保经济的好转再行尝试呢？委员会将难下决断。央行定于在10月2日、11月6日和12日4日分别召开货币政策会议。
近几周来，表明经济方向的多项指标之间一直是相互矛盾。
从积极的方面来讲，企业和消费者信心指数一直在稳步上扬。例如，德国研究机构ZEW Research Institute周二发布的9月份企业信心指数上涨8.4点，达到60.9点，已是连续第九个月上涨。
但消极迹象同样不少。欧元区失业率仍然居高不下；今年上半年的结果显示，欧元区经济停滞不前。
欧洲央行管理委员会委员马蒂?万哈拉(Matti Vanhala)周二称，欧元区经济在“今年和今后两年将令人沮丧地面临增长缓慢的风险”。
令人困惑的复苏
这一令人失望的结果，以及在一些情况下有些悲观的预期，与早先时候的预期大相径庭。就在1年以前，央行和许多其他人士还预计，欧元区经济将在今年下半年迎来复苏。他们对于复苏的定义为，经济的年增长率接近2.0%-2.5%这一欧元区的增长潜力。
对于经济将实现决定性好转的预期随后被推迟至2004年上半年，目前只能进一步推迟至明年下半年。
除了将复苏时间的预期推迟以外，央行还越来越强调其所作预期的风险性，这显示央行对于明年究竟能否实现复苏也无法肯定。
经济复苏所面临的风险包括：油价可能上涨、欧元兑美元汇率可能大幅走强，以及法国和德国财政赤字不断扩大。
德国商业银行(Commerzbank)驻法兰克福资深经济学家麦克尔?舒伯特(Michael Schubert)说，在努力化解这些风险时，央行“不能只说不做。”
他补充说，欧元区经济就像是一个病人，央行自己已经开出了药方，现在需要其他医生来施以援手了。
风险最小化
作为旨在缓解欧元升值压力所作游说努力的一部分，欧洲央行目前向亚洲国家和地区的政府施压，促其废除货币汇率钉住美元的政策，以便亚洲货币能够在美元贬值的情况下，承担一部分货币升值的影响。
这个问题在本周国际货币基金组织(IMF)迪拜会议上正在进行讨论。迄今为止，对于要求其货币兑美元升值的呼声，亚洲国家和地区的政府一直持抵制态度。
央行还不辞辛苦地为推动法、德等国紧缩财政政策而积极奔走，以期提高人们对欧元区和欧洲经济的信心。
在遵守欧盟(EU)《增长和稳定协定》(Growth and Stability Pact)中有关财政赤字的规定这一问题上，各国之间一直存在争议。但与亚洲货币升值问题相比，这个问题得到解决的希望更大一些。
即将达成的折衷方案可能会允许法国和德国短期内不受《增长和稳定协定》的限制，作为两国长期内采取措施控制支出的交换条件。这些措施包括：降低政府在未来几代人的保健、失业和退休金福利方面的支出。
花旗集团(Citigroup)驻伦敦经济和货币分析部门西欧市场负责人乔斯?阿尔索拉(Jose Alzola)认为，他们在向这个方向努力。
他说，上周末的欧盟经济和财政部长会议后发表的评论“表明，他们会找到一些解决方案。”
降息前景
最近的经济指标表明复苏状况究竟如何？想知道答案的不仅仅只有央行。私有领域的分析师们也在根据目前的种种迹象进行评估，他们之间存在截然不同的结论。
花旗集团的阿尔索拉认为，央行坚持放松政策倾向的立场很明显。央行一再强调，复苏将有一个逐步的过程，复苏存在下行风险，这意味著一旦形势的发展没有达到预期，央行就准备降息。
德国商业银行经济学家舒伯特则认为，央行不会再度降息，他们对于温和的复苏感到满意。他说，央行将会继续表示，事情当然还有更好的可能，但目前的问题是由于结构性因素造成的。
