Taiwan's missing economic links
Taiwan's anxieties about China's intentions are understandable, given Beijing's belligerent attitude to cross-straits relations. However, the recent efforts by Chen Shui-bian, the island's erratic and increasingly unpopular president, to strengthen its economic security by tightening curbs on private investment on the mainland are likely to produce exactly the reverse of their intended effect.
Taipei has long banned listed companies from investing more than 40 per cent of their net worth in China. Now Mr Chen's government is subjecting proposed investments to tougher official scrutiny and higher thresholds. It has also fined UMC, a leading chip maker, and indicted its executives for taking an allegedly illegal stake in a mainland electronics company.
The controls have not stopped Taiwanese companies from becoming among the biggest investors on the mainland. While China continues to grow rapidly, imposing further curbs merely increases the incentive to try to evade them. Some companies aim to do so by listing their shares in Hong Kong, while others are seeking non-Taiwanese private equity partners for future projects on the mainland.
As well as being hard to enforce, the controls are economically counter-productive. They discourage companies from repatriating profits from the mainland because it may be difficult to get permission to re-invest them there. In addition, they have led to a talent drain by encouraging an estimated 600,000 Taiwanese businessmen to move permanently to China.
Companies' reluctance to invest at home has weakened Taiwan's economy, which has missed out on the recent recovery in the rest of east Asia. Its annual growth has fallen to four per cent - half the recent rate in Hong Kong and Singapore - while real wages have stagnated and domestic profits are depressed. Perversely, the controls' biggest victim is Taiwan itself.
It needs to re-think policy. As well as relaxing the curbs, Taipei should seek to establish direct transport links with the mainland and ease restrictions on visits by Chinese tourists. That would encourage expatriate Taiwanese businessmen to return home and create much-needed sources of fresh growth.
Admittedly, Beijing's insistence that Taipei subscribe to a "One China" principle as a pre-condition for talks poses a tough political obstacle. But Mr Chen has made matters worse by stubbornly refusing to seek a diplomatic way round it and systematically adopting a confrontational attitude to Beijing.
However, his inept record has sharply reduced his popularity while boosting that of the Kuomintang, the main opposition party, which favours direct links. With the KMT the current favourite to win Taiwan's next presidential election in 2008, a change of policy may be on the way. For the sake of the island's economic welfare and security, it cannot come too soon.
台湾：错失大陆经济一环
鉴于北京对海峡两岸关系的尖锐态度，台湾对中国大陆企图心的忧虑是可以理解的。不过，反复无常、且支持率日益下降的台湾总统陈水扁最近采取种种措施，加强限制私营企业对大陆的投资，以期增强台湾的经济安全，却很可能适得其反。
长期以来，台湾政府一直规定，禁止上市公司将逾40%的企业净值投资大陆。现在，陈水扁政府又要对拟议中的投资项目进行更严苛的官方审查，还提高了放行门槛。政府曾对领先芯片制造商联华电子(UMC)处以罚款，还对该公司高管提起诉讼，称他们涉嫌在一家大陆电子企业非法持有股份。
迄今，这些控制措施并没有阻止台湾企业成为中国大陆最大的投资者群体之一。在大陆继续快速增长之际实施更多限制，只会增强逃避这些限制的动机。比如一些台湾企业到香港上市股票，其它企业则在为未来大陆项目物色台湾以外的私人股本伙伴。
这些控制措施不仅难以实施，还会在经济上起反作用。它们会阻碍企业将在大陆所获的利润返还台湾，因为企业也许难以获准将这些利润重新投资于大陆。此外，据估计，这些措施已鼓励60万台湾商人在大陆永久定居，导致了人才流失。
企业不愿在本土投资，削弱了台湾经济，台湾已错过了近期东亚其它地区的经济复苏，其年经济增长率已跌至4%，只及香港和新加坡近期水平的一半，而实际工资收入停滞不前，本土利润出现下滑。荒唐之处在于，这些控制措施的最大受害者正是台湾本身。
台湾需要重新思考政策。除了放松这些限制外，台湾政府应寻求与大陆建立直接通航联系，并减少对大陆游客访台的限制。这会鼓励移居岛外的台湾商人回到故土，并创造非常需要的新增长源泉。
诚然，北京坚持要求台北接受“一中”原则，以此作为谈判前提，这构成了艰巨的政治障碍。但陈水扁把问题搞得更糟，他顽固地拒绝寻求外交途径解决问题，还有计划有步骤地对北京采取对抗态度。
然而，陈水扁的执政无方，已大幅降低了他的支持率，并提升了赞成通航的主要反对党国民党的支持率。假如目前最被看好的国民党赢得2008年的下届总统大选，政策有望改变。为了台湾的经济繁荣和安全起见，这种改变越快越好。
