China Puts Energy at Top Of Agenda for Putin's Visit
Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit Beijing tomorrow for talks in which energy will be high on the agenda. China intends to push its energy-rich neighbor to deliver on past promises to supply it with more power.
During Mr. Putin's two-day stay, his hosts are likely to convey growing frustration that Russia hasn't provided as much energy assistance as China has wanted. Beijing is expected to push the Russian leader to commit to specific plans for building oil and gas pipelines to China.
"China isn't satisfied with the development of cooperation in energy," Zhang Guobao, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission told Russia's Interfax news agency early this month, in a rare display of open concern. "The practical level of cooperation in my view is still very insignificant."
The lack of progress is disappointing to China, which has scoured the globe for energy to supply its fast-growing economy, even though Russia, the world's largest gas producer and No. 2 in oil, is next door. At present, Russia supplies no gas to China and roughly 5% of China's oil imports.
A legacy of Cold War tensions between the two giants, there are no major pipelines and limited rail links across the shared border. Last year, Russia shipped 7.7 million metric tons of crude by rail to China. It had promised 10 million tons.
This week's discussions are expected to center on reviving talks to build a spur that would carry oil directly to China from a $7 billion pipeline Russia plans to build across east Siberia to the Pacific, as well as a stalled gas pipeline.
For years, China has pressured Russia to build more links and expand shipments. But Kremlin politics, Russia's legendary bureaucracy and Moscow's persistent suspicions of its more-dynamic neighbor have led to delays and broken promises. Beijing's efforts to buy up Russian energy assets, meanwhile, have run into roadblocks from the Kremlin.
China is particularly eager to foster closer energy ties with Russia because routing resources by land could be more secure than sea shipping. Currently, some four-fifths of China's oil imports pass through the Straits of Malacca in Southeast Asia, which Chinese planners fear could be easily blocked.
Officials on both sides say a deal on a spur for the oil pipeline to the Pacific could be signed during Mr. Putin's visit, although Russia's record on following up pledges has Beijing wary.
"Take the question of building the oil pipeline. ... One Russian official says Russia has made the decision, another says it hasn't," Mr. Zhang told Interfax, in comments that were confirmed by his office in Beijing last week. "The whole process is unsatisfactory."
Japan, meanwhile, has been pressuring the Kremlin to ensure that any pipeline runs to the Pacific -- not directly to China -- thus preventing Beijing from monopolizing Russian supplies. Despite Russian assurances that there will be enough oil for both customers, Tokyo officials are concerned that China's surging demand could mean that no Russian crude flows to the Pacific Ocean, and on to Japan.
Within Russia, meanwhile, there is infighting over who will carry the oil. The national railroad was planning to spend more than $1 billion to expand lines to carry crude to China. It now wants the government to guarantee that the planned pipeline won't divert those flows, even though rail shipments are more costly.
Russian officials insist they want to see more oil flow to Asia, especially China, and hope the planned pipeline will stimulate growth across the desolate Siberian region. When completed in 2008, the line is slated to carry 600,000 barrels of crude a day. Moscow has said it will expand daily capacity to 1.6 million barrels, although officials have given no indication of when that might happen.
Han Xiaoping, senior vice president of Beijing-based energy consultancy Beijing Falcon Pioneer Technology Co., said the negotiations may still take time. "Russia isn't market driven. But maybe this [Putin] visit is slowly the turning point."
Moscow is only beginning talks on links to supply gas to China. An official from the state gas company OAO Gazprom said it will sign an agreement in Beijing this week spelling out planned volumes and the pricing formulas for future gas shipment. But officials indicate key issues including where the multibillion-dollar pipelines will be run remain unresolved.
"In Russia, the contract signing is only the beginning of the negotiation," said Stephen O'Sullivan, an analyst at United Financial Group, a Moscow brokerage. "The Chinese are increasingly strident in their view that 'We're not just going to wait for you.' "
While Beijing would clearly prefer the security and low cost of pipeline gas from Russia, the Chinese government could also build more terminals for liquefied natural gas from elsewhere in Asia as an alternative.
Beijing had been working with BP PLC on a deal to bring in gas from the huge Kovykta field, which lies relatively close to the Mongolian border near Lake Baikal. But Gazprom blocked that project, saying it wants to determine where pipelines are built.
In an interview with Chinese media Friday, Russian First Deputy Premier Dmitry Medvedev, who also serves as chairman of Gazprom's board of directors, seemed to provide a ray of hope for Kovykta, citing it as an example of what he called "significant potential for cooperation in the gas sphere."
Russian officials have expressed concern that building a gas pipeline directly to China would leave them hostage to a single buyer. Analysts and officials said Gazprom needs to decide quickly on its plans for fields and pipelines to be able to deliver gas by early in the next decade.
中国将把能源合作列为普京访华的重点谈判议题
俄罗斯总统普京(Vladimir Putin)定于3月21日对中国展开为期两天的国事访问，能源问题将成为普京本次访华的主要议题。中国希望籍此敦促能源大国俄罗斯兑现先前的承诺──为中国输送更多的能源。
中国方面可能借普京访华之机向他传达这样一条信息，即俄罗斯为中国提供的能源没有达到中国的期望，中国的失望情绪与日俱增。预计北京将敦促普京在修建通往中国的油气输送管道等具体合作上作出承诺。
中国国家发展和改革委员会(National Development and Reform Commission)副主任张国宝于3月初在接受俄罗斯国际文传电讯社(Interfax)采访时表示，中国并不满意两国在能源合作方面所取得的进展。他认为，能够得到确切落实的中俄能源合作项目实在少得可怜。这是迄今为止中国官员在公开场合下关于中俄能源合作为数不多的表态之一。
中国对两国能源合作缺乏进展感到失望，因为此时正值中国遍寻世界各地为快速发展的国内经济提供所需能源之际，而邻国俄罗斯却是全球最大的天然气生产国和第二大原油出口国。目前而言，俄罗斯还未向中国出口天然气，对中国的原油出口也只占中国原油进口量的5%左右。
由于冷战期间两国关系一度紧张，中俄接壤的领土之间没有重要的输送管道，过境铁路数量也比较有限。去年，俄罗斯通过铁路向中国出口了770万吨原油，而俄罗斯的承诺为1,000万吨。
预计本周中俄会谈的核心议题将是恢复修建直接通往中国的原油支线管道和陷入僵局的天然气管道谈判。俄罗斯准备修建一条70亿美元的从西伯利亚东部直通太平洋西岸的原油输送管道，中国则提议修建一条直通中国的支线。
数年来，中国一直在敦促俄罗斯加强与中国的能源合作、扩大能源供应，但克里姆林宫的政见、俄罗斯根深蒂固的官僚政治以及莫斯科对中国经济活力的持续猜疑造成俄罗斯先前的承诺要么是久拖不决，要么根本就是一张空头支票。
中国尤为渴望加强与俄罗斯的能源联系，因为陆地运输比海上运输要安全多了。中国目前约有五分之四的进口原油要途经马六甲海峡，而中国经济的规划部门担心，这条海上能源供给线很容易被封锁。
中俄两国官员均表示，普京访华期间将签署协议，在俄罗斯通往太平洋的石油输送管线上修建一条通往中国的支线。不过，俄罗斯在履行承诺方面的过往表现让北京不敢盲目乐观。
张国宝对国际电传文讯社表示，在修建中国支线这个问题上，俄罗斯传来的消息相互矛盾，有的官员说俄罗斯已经下定决心，有的则说还在犹疑不决。总的来说，整个过程差强人意。他的办公室上周证实了他的这番讲话。
此外，日本一直在游说俄罗斯放弃修建中国支线的方案，而是直接修建通往太平洋的原油输送管道，其用意就是不让中国独享俄罗斯的原油供应。尽管俄罗斯保证将向中国和日本均提供充足的原油供应，但东京担心中国能源需求猛增将造成俄罗斯的原油供应全都流向中国，而日本却是竹篮打水一场空。
另外，在谁应负责向中国输送原油这个问题上，俄罗斯内部也有纷争。俄罗斯国家铁路公司准备斥资10亿多美元，扩建通往中国的输油铁路。该公司现正希望政府保证修建输油管道不会影响输油铁路的运量，尽管铁路运输的成本更高。
俄罗斯官员多次表示，希望看到为亚洲、特别是中国提供更多的原油，并希望看到拟建之中的输油管线能够带动人迹罕至的西伯利亚地区的经济增长。预计2008年线路建成时，这条管线的日原油运送量将达到60万桶。莫斯科表示，计划把这条线路的输送能力提高至160万桶，但并未给出实现此目标的时间表。
能源顾问机构群鹰公司(Beijing Falcon Pioneer Technology Co.)高级副总裁韩小平认为，中俄在能源合作方面的谈判可能还会持续一段时间，俄罗斯的决定并不完全以经济利益为导向，但此次普京访华或许是一个姗姗来迟的转折点。
莫斯科目前刚刚开始与中国就天然气供应展开谈判。国有天然气公司OAO Gazprom的一位管理人士表示，本周将与北京签署一份有关输气量和定价方案的协议。但俄罗斯官员表示，这条造价达数十亿美元的输气管线将途径哪些地区等关键问题仍悬而未决。
莫斯科经纪公司United Financial Group的分析师斯蒂芬?欧沙利文(Stephen O'Sullivan)称，在俄罗斯，签署协议只标志著一系列磋商的开始。中国方面越来越失去耐心，他们不断表示，除了俄罗斯，他们还有别的选择。
显而易见，俄罗斯管道天然气的安全和低成本让北京心动，但中国政府也可以修建更多的接收站，接收从亚洲其他地区进口液化天然气。
北京曾经与英国石油公司(BP PLC)就从蒙古边境贝加尔湖附近的Kovykta大型气田输送天然气展开过协商，但被Gazprom阻止，后者声称管道在哪里兴建由它做主。
俄罗斯联邦第一副总理德米特里?米底维杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)上周五接受中国媒体采访时的讲话似乎又让人们看到了Kovykta天然气输往中国的一线希望。身兼Gazprom董事长职务的米底维杰夫当时表示，Kovykta气田展现出中俄在天然气领域展开合作的巨大空间。
俄罗斯官员的担心是，一旦把天然气管道直接通往中国，中国就成了唯一的买家，届时可能会被中国以此相要挟。分析师和官员们皆表示，要想在2010年-2020年的初期开始向外输送天然气，Gazprom就需要对气田和管道项目及早做出决断。
