Has Buffett's Word Among Investors Lost Some Allure?
Warren Buffett, the "Oracle of Omaha," issued his annual letter to shareholders recently, an event overshadowed last week by the AT&T-BellSouth combination.
I always look forward to Mr. Buffett's folksy missives, especially his investment insights, strategies and predictions. Over the years, investors could have done very well by piggy-backing on Mr. Buffett's moves.
But this year there was a slightly autumnal air about Mr. Buffett's letter. Although he assured readers he feels "terrific," he discussed his eventual retirement and indicated he has a successor in mind. And while Mr. Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway, saw a modest increase in 2005, I couldn't help wondering if Mr. Buffett has lost some of his legendary touch.
Last year I expressed reservations about his big bet on a falling dollar, noting that it conflicted with his own advice to avoid following the herd. And, sure enough, that strategy proved costly for shareholders. Berkshire Hathaway recorded a $955 million loss on its foreign-currency positions. Fortunately for those of us who don't trade currency futures, investing in foreign markets nonetheless paid off. The effect of the strong dollar was more than offset last year by big rallies in most foreign markets. This year Mr. Buffett seems to have come around to my view.
While he still argues that the huge U.S. foreign trade deficit means trouble for the dollar eventually, he reports that he closed out some of his currency positions and makes the case instead for owning foreign equities.
I share that view, although I'm concerned it's become the conventional wisdom Mr. Buffett teaches us to be wary of. One of these years, foreign equities are going to underperform U.S. markets. The only question is when.
On the stock-picking front, Mr. Buffett lamented last year that there were few companies that met his stringent, value-oriented criteria. Those concerns notwithstanding, we learn this year that Mr. Buffett took large positions in Wal-Mart Stores ($944 million) and Anheuser-Busch ($2.1 billion).
Both companies seem to have qualities that have long attracted Mr. Buffett, namely strong brand names and dominant market shares. I, too, experienced the allure of Wal-Mart last year as its stock dropped into what seemed to be clear value territory. Unlike Mr. Buffett, I threw in the towel when the Wal-Mart call options I bought expired worthless and took the tax loss.
In addition to high gasoline costs affecting its target customers and a host of potential labor and regulatory issues, Wal-Mart seems unable to translate its growing size into higher economies of scale and bigger profit margins. It has yet to prove its ability to dominate a foreign market. Still, I'm neutral on the stock at these levels, and might follow Mr. Buffett's lead if the price drops much further or if gas prices continue to decline.
Anheuser-Busch is more puzzling. Though Anheuser-Busch retains a dominant market position, it seems to be fending off a dizzying array of craft- and micro-brews, not to mention nonbeer alternatives, and sales slipped last year. Nor has Anheuser shown it can dominate any markets other than beer. I respect Anheuser's marketing prowess and strong competitive position, but I can't get excited about the stock.
Indeed, it's hard to imagine a big surge in the stocks of companies like Wal-Mart and Anheuser, but perhaps Mr. Buffett is content with modest, 5% to 6% gains.
In any event, that seems to be all Mr. Buffett is hoping for. In his letter, he goes out of his way to damp expectations. He notes that during the 20th century, from 1899 to 1999, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased at a compound annual rate of 5.3%, and that so far in the 21st century, the industrial average has essentially gone nowhere. The implication is that we shouldn't expect much more. I agree we shouldn't be greedy, but otherwise here I part company.
Considering everything that went wrong in the 20th century, from the Great Depression to two world wars, not to mention the strides that have been made in health, education, science and technology, I think we can do better.
“股神”巴菲特魅力不再？
被誉为“股神”的沃伦?巴菲特(Warren Buffett)最近发表了今年致股东的信，不过上周美国电话电报公司(AT&T Inc.)同南贝尔公司(BellSouth Corp.)的合并掩盖了这封信的光芒。
我一直对巴菲特亲切真挚的信件充满期待，尤其是他的投资观点、策略和预期。多年来，只要投资者遵循巴菲特的指导，都能获得不菲的回报。
不过今年，巴菲特的信带来了一丝凉意。尽管他向读者表示，他感觉“非常好，”但还是提到了终于将要退休了，并表示心中已经有了继任人选。尽管巴菲特的公司Berkshire Hathaway在2005年实现了温和增长，我还是怀疑巴菲特是否已经失去了一些传奇色彩。
去年，我对他断言美元将下跌的观点表达了保留意见，并指出这有悖于他自己提出的投资不应跟风的忠告。显然，这种策略让股东付出了高昂的代价。Berkshire Hathaway记入了9.55亿美元的外汇头寸亏损。幸运的是，对我们这些没有参与外汇期货交易的人来说，在海外市场投资却获得了回报。去年许多海外市场的强劲反弹大大抵消了美元走强的效应。今年巴菲特似乎采纳了一些我的观点。
尽管他仍认为美国的巨额外贸逆差最终将给美元带来麻烦，但他也表示已经结清了一些外汇头寸，而改为持有海外股票。
我也持这种看法，尽管这种循规蹈矩的投资理念与巴菲特经常教导我们的背道而驰。今后几年里，总会有一年海外股票的表现将会弱于美国市场，这只是时间的问题。
在选股方面，巴菲特去年抱怨说，符合他严格的、以价值为导向标准的公司少之又少。尽管存在这种担心，但我们今年知道巴菲特还是持有了大量沃尔玛连锁公司(Wal-Mart Stores Inc.)和安海斯公司(Anheuser-Busch Cos.)的头寸，分别为9.44亿美元和21亿美元。
两家公司应该都具有始终吸引巴菲特的品质，如强大的品牌和在市场的垄断地位。在沃尔玛的股票去年跌至公认的价值区时，我也深受吸引。与巴菲特不同的是，在我买的沃尔玛看涨期权到期后，我承受了税金损失并没有恋战。
除了汽油价格高企对目标客户的影响以及一系列在劳工及监管方面的潜在问题之外，沃尔玛看来也未能用其规模的壮大来提升规模效益和利润率。而且，它也没有表现出明有能力在海外市场占据主导地位。不过，在目前价位上，我对该股持中性看法，如果该股继续走低或是汽油价格进一步下跌，我也许会步巴菲特的后尘。
安海斯的情况更复杂一些。尽管它在市场上仍占据主导地位，但看来正在受到各种各样特制或精酿啤酒的冲击，此外还有非啤酒饮料的步步紧逼，去年该公司的销售额出现了滑坡。安海斯也没能显示出控制啤酒之外的其它市场的能力。我承认安海斯拥有强大的营销实力和竞争力，但该股难以令我心动。
的确，很难想象沃尔玛和安海斯这样的股票会出现大幅上涨，不过也许巴菲特对5%-6%的温和涨幅就心满意足了。
看来这的确就是巴菲特的预期。他在信中用自己的方式降低了预期。他指出，在1899年到1999年的20世纪里，道琼斯指数按年率计算的年涨幅为5.3%，而到了21世纪，道琼斯指数基本原地踏步。巴菲特的言下之意就是让我们不要抱过高期望。我同意我们不能贪婪，但在这一点上我不能苟同巴菲特的观点。
先不说在医疗、教育和科技方面取得的进步，只说说从大萧条(Great Depression)到两次世界大战这些我们在20世纪犯下的种种错误，我就认为我们能够做得更好
