Oscars---David (slow)
>> the former supermarket strike in california may be ending. albertson’s, safe safeway and kroger reached a tentative agreement with union officials who say members will likely ratify the contract over the weekend. the walk-out has cost supermarkets as much as $1.5 billion in sales as shoppers turn to competitors such as costco and whole food market . now the supermarkets will likely engage in a pricing and promotions war to lure back customer, analysts say, plus wal-mart plans to open 40 supercenters in southern california in march, increasing pressure on existing supermarkets to cut prices. one retail analyst says it’s going to be a real conflagration of price wars. the academy award for movies, known as the oscars, will be shown on abc television sunday night, a month earlier than usual. our next guest believes the early timing will have a short-term effect on movie company profits, but not to make a difference in the long run. david joyce joins us from miami, florida. let’s get into it if we can, david. why is it that the fact that the oscars are coming a month early, why will that hurt movie profits in the short term?
>> the nominations for the oscars come out in late january. that hasn’t changed. in previous years, that’s always given about two months of oscar buzz and assistance to movies that were nominated. people go out to the theaters in order to see the ones that were nominated so they’re better informed for discussions for oscar night.
>> so your belief is that, yeah, they’ll miss out on longer term but a nomination is a nomination and creates a buzz and people will still see the nominees and winners?
>> i think winners do get a longer-term benefit from d.v.d. sales and rentals but i think it’s probably known much earlier in the course of the year when―in terms of what the movies will do for the studios long term based on critics’ opinions and the initial box office draw.
>> the only reason they moved it up a month is that abc could get better ratings in the spring book, if you will. pretty smooth move. this is the 76th annual academy awards, why did it take so long to catch on to that?
>> we are in february sweeps month where ratings do matter a bit more. but this year’s oscars will be different than last year’s. last year’s took place during the onset of the war in iraq so there was no glitz and glamour of the red carpet which will be back this year. it’s expected that the makeup of the viewing audience will be different this year. there may be more males who are fans of the “lord of the rings” trilogy, since that’s sort of expected to be the best picture winner this year. another controversy during the course of the year that sort of affected the timing was that of piracy and that is that d.v.d.’s are normally sent out to those who vote within the academy for the winners but there has been leakage in the d.v.d.’s to be pirated and they hoped an acceleration of oscar night might curtail some of that.
>> are you going?
>> no, i’m not.
>> let me ask you, i understand that the academy awards are a close second to the super bowl in terms of super revenues and super viewership so the big events seem to be the ones as opposed to recurring series where the revenue is flowing in terms of ad dollars.
>> the networks pay up for the super specials. the oscars will probably be bringing in somewhere in the range of $1.5 to $1.7 million per 30-second ad spot versus the super bowl which was a little over $2 million, i believe, this year. that’s a big jump from a normal prime time winner that you might do around $300 or $400,000 for an episode so abc is definitely hoping for much better viewership this year and it’s probably going to be the best that’s been seen in a number of years.
>> i read a story, i think yesterday, that said it cost $50 million to put on the oscars but abc hopes to book $70 million in ad sales and will make $20 million. but $50 million to put on the oscars? it’s an awards ceremony!
>> there’s a lot involved with security and working with hollywood to put this on. there’s a lot involved in leading up to it.
>> i guess so. we have 30 seconds left, but they expect to make $20 million on the deal, so that’s a good return on the investment, isn’t it?
>> and there could be upside from other synergies across other disney and abc properties. they’ve sold it in various ways on other platforms by disney.
>> david joyce thinks “lord of the rings” is the winner. he’s a media analyst at guzman and company. it used to be michael jordan and now players from china and france are bringing the buzz and big bucks back to the nba. our weekly segment “the business of sports” is next.
