AT&T收购南贝尔可能对Verizon造成压力

Will Verizon Try to Dial Up a Deal?

AT&T-BellSouth Pact May Spark
A New Round of Consolidation
Within Telecom, Cable Industries

Wall Street's merger-and-acquisition bankers may already be programming Verizon Communications Inc. into their cellphones.

For a few short months, Verizon and the nation's other major phone company, AT&T Inc., were in detente: Their stock-market values were close each other, and both were digesting massive acquisitions of long-distance firms that rounded out their portfolios of wireless, data and phone services. But investors could find the equilibrium very short-lived if AT&T gets regulatory approval for a $67 billion deal to acquire BellSouth Corp.

That deal could spark a new round of consolidation in the wireless, cable, conventional-phone and telecommunications-equipment sectors as rivals and suppliers prepare to grapple with a behemoth that would control local-phone service in the South, Midwest and much of the West and own the country's biggest wireless operation outright.

BELLS UNITE


? Page One: A Reborn AT&T to Buy BellSouth

? Page One: Pact Represents Big Bet

? AT&T's Bid Raises Brows of Consumer Groups

? Tale of the Tape: How AT&T, BellSouth compare

? Vote: Should regulators approve the deal?

? Graphics: Stats on Cingular, wireless rivals

? More coverage

Verizon would be most directly affected by a deal between AT&T and BellSouth, which would give AT&T full control of its Cingular Wireless joint venture with BellSouth. Verizon owns 55% of Verizon Wireless and would have added incentive to buy out its partner, Britain's Vodafone Group PLC. Verizon spokesman Peter Thonis says the company is already working to acquire the remaining stake.

"This a logical and predictable move by AT&T," Mr. Thonis says. "This kind of consolidation makes sense, providing new leverage and capabilities as Verizon and AT&T compete against cable. Meanwhile, Verizon's business plan remains unchanged."

Stock investors have been favoring San Antonio-based AT&T, which has seen its stock rise 14% this year, compared with a 12% rise for Verizon, based in New York. AT&T has a market capitalization of $109.9 billion and Verizon has a market capitalization of $98.3 billion. But with AT&T strengthening its grip on wireless, which is a critical source of growth, Verizon could be compelled to come up with another move, according to industry observers.

Now may be the time for Vodafone to accept Verizon's overtures: Just last month the U.K. wireless giant forecast slower revenue growth and tighter profit margins for its fiscal year ending March 31, 2007. Vodafone's American depositary receipts, which traded above $26 as recently as November, were at $21 Friday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

Another wireless option Verizon could dial up is Alltel Corp., which has a market value of about $25 billion. The company, based in Little Rock, Ark., serves about 10 million customers, mostly in rural areas and small cities, and competes directly with Cingular in many places. Alltel is in the process of splitting off its less-desirable wireline operations in a deal expected to close this summer. But some observers think its customer base isn't attractive to Verizon.

The AT&T-BellSouth combination also would affect other firms in the conventional-landline business, including Denver-based Qwest Communications International Inc. The company, which serves 16 Western and Mountain states, is the smallest of the regional-phone empires, and it doesn't have its own wireless operation. Qwest, which has a market capitalization of about $12 billion, could become a target for AT&T because it would nearly complete AT&T's geographic footprint. Verizon also could go after Qwest, but some analysts are skeptical, because a deal with Qwest would bring Verizon little growth yet load it up with more debt. Qwest spokesman Bob Toevs declined to comment on takeover speculation.

Analysts also expect an AT&T merger with BellSouth to accelerate consolidation in the cable industry. The most likely buyer is Time Warner Inc.'s cable division, the country's second-largest cable operator, which is expected to add about four million subscribers later this year when Adelphia Communications Corp.'s systems are divvied up between Time Warner and Comcast Corp. As part of that deal, Time Warner is expected to offer stock in its cable unit that it could use as currency in future acquisitions. Likely targets include Cablevision Systems Corp. and Insight Communications Co., which recently went private, analysts say.

AT&T's deal promises to create long-term challenges but short-term opportunities in the cable industry. Over time, the merger will likely turn AT&T into a more formidable competitor. But in the next few years, AT&T presumably would be focused on integrating BellSouth, giving cable operators extra time to offer consumers a bundle of TV, phone and high-speed Internet services before the telephone companies can strengthen their packages.


The BellSouth deal also highlights the current plight of the telecom-equipment industry, whose customers have been consolidating at a ferocious pace but has itself remained impervious to the same forces. A telecom marketplace dominated by AT&T and Verizon would put increasing emphasis on a few key contracts issued by the two giants. One person close to the BellSouth deal foresees a process akin to military contracting.

Should that winner-take-all approach develop, it would certainly push some equipment providers into deals of their own. But some combination of Lucent Technologies Inc., Nortel Networks Corp., Motorola Corp. or Alcatel SA would prove an immensely challenging combination of technology, corporate bureaucracies and international politics.
AT&T收购南贝尔可能对Verizon造成压力



华尔街的并购银行家们也许已将Verizon Communications Inc.列入他们的议事日程了。

几个月来，Verizon和美国另一家大型电话公司美国电话电报公司(AT&T Inc.)的关系有所缓和：两家公司的股价相近，也都斥巨资收购了长途电话公司，以完善各自的无线、数据和电话服务的投资组合。不过，如果AT&T出资670亿美元收购南贝尔公司(BellSouth Corp.)的计划获得监管机构的批准，那么投资者会发现这种平衡将很快被打破。

这一交易可能引发无线、有线、传统电话和通讯设施业务的新一轮整合，而竞争者和供应商要准备好和一个庞然大物决一死战──这个庞然大物将控制美国南部、中西部和西部大部分地区的本地电话服务，还将直接控制美国最大的无线业务。

AT&T和南贝尔公司的交易将使AT&T完全控制其与南贝尔公司的合资企业Cingular Wireless，这将对Verizon产生最为直接的影响：Verizon现持有Verizon Wireless 55%的股份，交易将促使Verizon收购其合作伙伴──英国沃达丰空中通讯公司(Vodafone Group PLC)的股份。Verizon发言人彼得?托尼斯(Peter Thonis)表示，公司已经著手收购剩余股份。

托尼斯表示，“AT&T此举在意料之中。这种整合合情合理，在AT&T与Verizon有线业务的竞争中，它为AT&T提供了新的优势和能力。另外，Verizon的商业计划并未改变。”

股市投资者一直看好AT&T，今年该公司的股价已经攀升了14%，而Verizon的股价只上涨了12%。AT&T的市值为1,099亿美元，而Verizon只有983亿美元。行业观察家表示，随著AT&T加强对重要增长点──无线业务的控制，Verizon可能被迫作出另一个决定。

现在也许是沃达丰接受Verizon提议的时候了：上个月，作为英国无线业巨头的沃达丰预计在截至2007年3月31日的财年中，收入增长将出现减缓、利润率也将收缩。去年11月，沃达丰美国存托凭证的交易价格还在26美元以上，而在纽约证交所上周五的综合交易中，交易价格仅为21美元。

Verizon在无线业务方面的另一个选择是拥有约250亿美元市值的Alltel Corp.。该公司共有大约1,000万客户，主要位于农村地区和小城市，并在许多地区直接同Cingular竞争。Alltel正在剥离其乏善可陈的有线电话业务，预计此项交易将在今年夏季完成。但部分观察家认为，其客户群对Verizon而言不具吸引力。

AT&T同南贝尔公司的合并还将影响到开展普通电话业务的其他企业，如位于丹佛的Qwest Communications International Inc.。该公司在16个西部和山地诸州开展业务，是最小的地区性电话公司，也没有自己的无线业务。市值120亿美元左右的Qwest可能成为AT&T的收购目标，因为它将使AT&T进入原来没有涉足的地区。Verizon也可能对Qwest感兴趣，但部分分析师持怀疑态度，因为收购Qwest难以推动Verizon的增长，却可能使其背上更多的债务。Qwest的发言人鲍勃?托伍斯(Bob Toevs)对有关收购的传闻不予置评。

分析师还预计，AT&T同南贝尔公司的合并将加快有线业的整合。最可能的买家是时代华纳公司(Time Warner Inc)的有线业务部门，它是美国第二大有线运营商，预计今年晚些时候同康卡斯特(Comcast Corp.)合作收购Adelphia Communications Corp.后，时代华纳将新增400多万订户。作为此项交易的一部分，预计时代华纳将提供有线子公司的股票，可在未来的收购中作为货币使用。分析师称，潜在的收购目标有Cablevision Systems Corp.和最近进行了私有化的Insight Communications Co.。

AT&T的交易从长远角度会给有线业带来挑战，但短期内却会创造机会。随著时间的推移，此项合并将使AT&T成为更可怕的竞争对手。但在今后几年里，AT&T的重点将是南贝尔公司的整合，从而使有线运营商获得喘息之机，在电话公司提供更具竞争力的方案前，向消费者提供电视、电话和高速互联网接入的捆绑式服务。

同南贝尔公司的交易还将使电信设备业雪上加霜，它们的客户一直在急速整合，但要获得这些客户的合约却是日益困难。由AT&T和Verizon主导的电信市场将使电信设备业将目光都集中在这两家巨头发出的少数几份大订单上。一位了解南贝尔公司的人士预计，今后情况将变得同军事合约类似。

假如这种胜者为王的势头继续蔓延，显然部分设备供应商也会进行整合。但朗讯科技(Lucent Technologies Inc.)、北电网络有限公司(Nortel Networks Corp.)、摩托罗拉公司(Motorola Inc.)或阿尔卡特公司(Alcatel SA)之间的合并无论在技术、公司管理和国际政治方面都会面临巨大的挑战。

AT&T计划以670亿美元收购南贝尔公司
AT&T-BellSouth Merger Could Pressure Industry

NEW YORK -- A merger between AT&T Inc. (T) and BellSouth Corp. (BLS) should turn up the heat on a wide-ranging number of players in the industry.

As telecommunications companies continue to consolidate, the big keep getting bigger. AT&T Inc., which was formed by the November merger of AT&T Corp. and Baby Bell SBC Communications Inc., is set to acquire fellow Baby Bell BellSouth in an all-stock deal worth $67 billion, or $37.09 per BellSouth share.

The deal will create a telecom behemoth not seen since the days prior to the split-up of the original Ma Bell. Its size should cause a lot of trouble for rival phone companies such as Verizon Communications (VZ) and wireless companies such as Sprint Nextel Corp. (S), while putting it on a better footing against the cable companies, which have been encroaching on phone companies' business. Telecom equipment vendors, meanwhile, could get squeezed as their big customers consolidate.

"The sheer mass gives them such scale," said Patrick Comack, an analyst with Zachary Investment Research.

Consolidation in the traditional telecom industry has almost made a round trip from the days of the original AT&T monopoly. The deal would leave the country with only two local telephone companies of real scale - AT&T and Verizon - down from seven immediately after the Ma Bell breakup. Qwest Communications International Inc. (Q), is the only other remaining Baby Bell.

Prior to the merger between SBC and AT&T, Verizon was the top dog in the industry. Its acquisition of MCI Inc. pitted it directly against AT&T in the lucrative business services market. AT&T's acquisition of BellSouth would allow it to expand its reach into the southeast market with a known provider.

"It makes life more difficult for Verizon," Comack said.

Verizon spokesman Peter Thonis declined to comment on any potential impact from the deal.

It's less certain how the wireless companies will be affected. On the consumer side, Cingular Wireless (CIW.XX), which is jointly owned by AT&T and BellSouth, could see little change other than its name. As the nation's top wireless provider by subscribers, the merger of Cingular's parents wouldn't expand the market it serves.

Still, Comack believes the deal would "empower" Cingular and presents a significant threat to companies such as Sprint and Verizon Wireless, especially on the business side of the wireless market. Indeed, AT&T said in January that it would begin selling integrated Cingular wireless and AT&T business services under the AT&T brand, reigniting speculation of a merger or acquisition. The analyst reports no conflicts of interest in covering the companies.

With an expanded geographical presence, AT&T will be able to better compete against the cable companies, which have been cutting into the telecom industry's voice revenue with a rival Internet phone service.

"It gives them a larger reach so they can fight cable in their whole footprint," said Roger Entner, a telecom analyst with research firm Ovum. "Now, there's no hiding from AT&T."

Entner noted that BellSouth has commanded more pricing power in its region when it comes to selling bundles of services including voice and high-speed Internet connection. AT&T, meanwhile, has aggressively slashed the prices for its DSL service, going as low as $12.99 a month. AT&T would be able to tap into a market that has more room to grow.

"What they're buying are the rights to access one of the fastest growing regions in the country," Entner said.

The deal would combine SBC's market, which is focused in the Southwest, with BellSouth's market in the Southeast, consolidating their position in states such as California, Texas and Florida. The expanded market would give AT&T a larger base to sell additional services such as DSL - a strategy the Bells have been employing to offset eroding voice revenue.

Another major loser could end up being the telecom equipment vendor industry. With its larger scale, AT&T could increase its bargaining power. Even if the company continues to spend it's likely several vendors - possibly those that serve BellSouth - could get squeezed out as the company consolidates.
AT&T计划以670亿美元收购南贝尔公司




美国电话电报公司(AT&T Inc.)宣布，同意以价值670亿美元左右的股票收购南贝尔公司(BellSouth Corp.)。此项交易将诞生完全控股第一大移动运营商Cingular Wireless的电信业巨头。

AT&T预计，合并后公司每年可节约成本约20亿美元。AT&T董事长爱德华?惠塔克(Edward Whitacre)将担任新公司的董事长、首席执行长和董事会成员。

根据收购协议，南贝尔公司股东的每一股普通股将获得1.325股AT&T普通股。双方表示，按照AT&T 3月3日的收盘价，这一换股比例相当于南贝尔普通股的股价为37.09美元，比其当天的收盘价高出17.9%，该对价水平目前相当于670亿美元左右的总价值。

南贝尔公司将有三名董事进入AT&T的董事会。合并后，公司总部仍将位于圣安东尼奥。Cingular Wireless总部和合并后公司的东南地区电话公司总部则仍位于亚特兰大。南贝尔公司的总部目前位于亚特兰大。目前Cingular Wireless是南贝尔公司和AT&T的合资企业。

双方称，预计这项交易将在一年内完成，并在2007年后提振公司调整后的每股收益。他们还表示，除了AT&T此前宣布的2006年20亿美元的回购计划外，公司还预计将在2007年回购80亿美元的普通股。

《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)网络版在上周六晚间最先披露了这两家公司即将达成合并交易的消息。

并购潮大大改变了电信业的格局，收购南贝尔公司将进一步推动AT&T庞大帝国的重现。美国政府在1984年牵头分拆了当年的AT&T。

在AT&T收购南贝尔公司后，美国的电信服务业将演变为两虎相争的局面──合并后的AT&T和Verizon Communications Inc.成为拥有本地电话业务、企业服务和无线子公司的垂直型综合企业。这项交易将使政府设定的竞争格局变为现实，即传统的电信公司不是彼此竞争，而是直接同有线运营商竞争。与此同时，有线公司也加大了从电信公司争夺电话服务业务市场占有率的力度。

AT&T同南贝尔公司合并后，市值可能会在1,500亿美元以上，大大超过了竞争对手Verizon。随著AT&T和Verizon在无线业务控制权方面的争夺，它们之间的竞争也将进入白热化。

了解电信行业的银行家表示，正是Cingular的快速发展促成双方走到了一起。他们称，随著无线业务重要性的增加，西南贝尔公司(SBC Communications Inc.)将会不可避免地整合在南方的业务。西南贝尔在几个月前收购了AT&T Corp.，并开始采用后者的名字。

惠塔克曾在电信行业完成了一系列收购。去年秋季，他在西南贝尔公司领导了对AT&T的收购。此前他还进行了一连串的收购，包括Pacific Telesis Corp.、亚美达科公司(Ameritech Corp.)和Southern New England Telecommunications Corp。

随著惠塔克即将退休，市场一直在期待著他的最后一击。AT&T收购南贝尔公司早就是分析师、投资者和这两家公司的竞争对手猜测的内容。

不过，在收购AT&T后不久就接著收购南贝尔公司，速度之快实在令人吃惊。惠塔克的公司刚刚开始消化价值160亿美元对AT&T的收购。新公司在整个行业的各个领域几乎都占据主导地位，从高速互联网接入到长途和无线电话服务，等等。惠塔克现在已经进入了过去AT&T的企业业务和全球网络。

尽管AT&T和Verizon的上次收购（Verizon今年初完成了对MCI的收购）都通过了美国联邦通讯委员会(FCC)和司法部(Justice Department)的审核，没有出现什么大问题，但此次收购计划却可能面临诸多阻力。AT&T和南贝尔公司的管理人员最近表示，他们准备为互联网内容提供商推出二级（即高级）服务，从高速互联网服务中获得新的收入来源。对这些计划和“网络中立”概念的担忧已成为这些电信公司给美国政府带来的主要问题。

AT&T的管理层上周晚些时候明显向主要的高级政府官员通报了此事，他们似乎断定布什(Bush)政府和美国联邦通讯委员会不会对该交易设置太多障碍。他们称，这两家公司目前在不同的地区开展业务，彼此之间并不存在很大竞争。