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新闻集团被忽视了

级别: 管理员
Murdoch's Stock Doesn't Scream

His Media Company, News Corp.,
Tops Peers in Profit Growth, Assets,
But Shares Don't Reflect Potential

Carl Icahn took on Time Warner Inc., arguing that the media company's shares were undervalued.

But investors have overlooked another media giant with shares that are even more inexpensive and that potentially have greater upside: Rupert Murdoch's News Corp.

News Corp. shares have been in the doldrums for five years, with its most actively traded Class A shares up two cents at $16.28 yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. That isn't much higher than the $15 a share or so the stock fetched in March 2001.


Media Center: News Corp., under its acquisitive leader Rupert Murdoch (above), has lots of assets, but not as many believers in the stock market.


Some of the lethargy is due to the market's distaste for old-line media businesses. But it also reflects fear that Mr. Murdoch -- long seen as an empire builder rather than a builder of shareholder value -- will launch another expensive takeover, perhaps of Univision Communications Inc.

But News Corp.'s assets are among the most valuable in the media and Internet industries, and its shares are cheap compared with rivals. Investors have overlooked impressive profit and cash-flow growth, and upbeat future prospects.

If Mr. Murdoch, the 74-year-old media mogul, can control his acquisition urges and the company pays heed to investors pushing it to boost stock buybacks, News Corp. shares could jump, especially if the love affair between investors and large media companies is rekindled.

Some of Mr. Murdoch's acquisitions, such as an investment in Gemstar-TV Guide International Inc. that resulted in an almost $6 billion write-down, have sparked teeth gnashing among shareholders. But the septuagenarian recently said the likely price for Univision is too expensive, and he has suggested that there are no big acquisitions currently on the table.

"The company has all the pieces in place to grow at a higher rate than the industry," says Aryeh Bourkoff of UBS Investment Research, who has a "buy" rating on the stock. He doesn't own the shares; his firm has done investment banking with News Corp. in the past. "If they have a more liberal buyback policy, it could spark a sentiment shift on the stock."

News Corp.'s earnings growth tops its peers. The company is expected to earn 87 cents a share this year, a rise of 18% compared with 2005, and $1.04 next year, a jump of almost 20%, according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial. By comparison, rivals such as CBS Corp., Walt Disney Co., Viacom Inc. and Time Warner are expected to generate earnings growth of 10% to 17.5% in 2006, and 6% to 17.5% in 2007.

Despite that, News Corp. shares trade at 18.7 times its expected 2006 earnings, compared with price/earnings ratios of 20 for Viacom, 19.7 for Time Warner and 18.5 for Disney. CBS has a trading multiple of 14 but is expected to see much slower growth.

Meanwhile, News Corp. trades at 13.8 times its expected free cash flow this year, after adjusting for its stakes in DirecTV Group Inc. and British Sky Broadcasting Group PLC, below the industry average of 19.7, according to UBS. Free cash flow should grow more than 20% next year, compared with 10% for the industry, UBS estimates.

"They will grow earnings at double the rate of the overall market, and about five percentage points faster than their competitors, making the stock incredibly cheap," says Michael Nathanson of Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., who has a "buy" rating on News Corp. and doesn't own any shares.

One knock on News Corp. is that it remains too focused on slow-growth newspapers and television stations. But these businesses generate impressive cash flow, and growth comes from elsewhere in the empire. The cable-networks division, including Fox News Channel, the FX Channel and regional sports networks, are driving earnings at a 22% annual pace. Some analysts expect ad rates to climb at Fox News amid viewer growth. Sky Italia, News Corp.'s Italian satellite-television provider, and Asia's Star TV also have seen operating income rise more than 20% in the past year.

News Corp. also owns 34% of DirecTV Group, which is finally earning an annual profit, and 38% of British Sky Broadcasting in the United Kingdom. Results at the 20th Century Fox film division have been lackluster, but the studio is well-managed and sports strong profit margins, investors say.


News Corp., which moved its domicile to the U.S. from Australia last year, is something of a play on the increasing wealth of the Asian middle class, thanks to international assets such as Star TV. And the increasingly popular teenage social-networking Web site MySpace.com, purchased for $580 million last July, may become a moneymaker.

With shares of new-media companies like Google Inc., eBay Inc. and Yahoo Inc. stalling lately, some investors are beginning to focus on so-called content providers as they begin to sell programming through all kinds of distribution channels, including hand-held devices.

News Corp. stock has edged up from about $14 in October. A further advance could come if media investors, including hedge funds, succeed in their behind-the-scenes efforts to push Mr. Murdoch to buy back more shares.

"We're in the midst of a $3 billion buyback program and when it is finished we will look at the balance sheet and the price of the shares and make a determination," spokesman Gary Ginsberg says. "But, certainly, if the stock is this cheap it would be a very compelling use of our cash."

News Corp. already has bought almost $2 billion of its shares under a two-year, $3 billion buyback program announced last June.

The company's balance sheet is stronger than that of many rivals, allowing for more share repurchases. News Corp., which has a market value of $53 billion, had net debt of $6.9 billion at the end of December. Disney, with a $53.9 billion market value, had net debt of $11.4 billion. Time Warner, which has agreed to boost its buyback program to $20 billion, has an $80.7 billion market value and net debt of $16.1 billion.

"It's extremely cheap," says Morris Mark, president of Mark Asset Management, which has $500 million under management and owned more than 600,000 News Corp. shares at the end of December. "At some point it will be recognized."
新闻集团被忽视了

卡尔?伊坎(Carl Icahn)前一段时间增持了时代华纳的股票,他认为,这家媒体公司的股价被低估了。但投资者还忽视了另外一家媒体巨人,其股票甚至比时代华纳更便宜,而且上涨潜力更大,它就是鲁珀特?默多克(Rupert Murdoch)麾下的新闻集团(News Corp)。

五年来,新闻集团的股价一直萎靡不振。昨天在纽约证交所,其交易最活跃的A类股票上涨2美分至16.28美元。5年前即2001年3月时,该股为15美元。

新闻集团股价不振的部分原因在于,市场对传统的媒体业务缺乏兴趣。不过,它也反映了市场对默多克的一种担心,那就是他可能会再次不惜斥巨资发起收购,目标可能会是Univision Communications Inc.。默多克长期以来一直被视为是一个庞大帝国的建设者,而不是矢志为股东创造价值的人。

但是,新闻集团是媒体和互联网行业最有价值的公司之一,且其股价与竞争对手相比较为便宜。可惜投资者对其可观的利润和现金流增长水平以及乐观的业务前景视而不见。

如果现年已经74岁的默多克能控制他的收购冲动,同时,公司能对那些敦促其增加股票回购的投资者予以重视,那么,新闻集团的股价有可能上升,特别是如果投资者能对大型媒体公司重新产生兴趣的话。

默多克的一些收购行动曾让股东们恨得咬牙切齿,比如在收购Gemstar-TV Guide International Inc.上的投资最终结果却是接近60亿美元的冲减。不过耄耋之年的默多克最近表示,Univision可能接受的价格太高了,他还暗示眼下没有正在考虑的大型收购项目。

UBS Investment Research的阿耶?波考夫(Aryeh Bourkoff)说,新闻集团具备以超出整个行业水平的高速度进一步发展的所有条件。他对新闻集团的股票评级是“买进”。他本人不持有该股,不过他所在的公司过去曾与新闻集团有投行业务往来。他说,如果新闻集团实行更慷慨的回购制度,那将大大激发该股在投资者中间的人气。

新闻集团的收益增幅高于同行。据Thomson Financial调查分析师得出的预测,该公司今年每股收益能达到87美分,比2005高出18%;预计明年能达到1.04美元,增幅接近20%。这些数字比它的许多同行都高,比如哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS Corp.)、迪斯尼(Walt Disney Co.)、维亚康姆(Viacom Inc.)和时代华纳(Time Warner)2006年的预计收益增幅在10%-17.5%之间,2007年在6%-17.5%之间。

但尽管如此,新闻集团股票的本益比仍相对偏低,以其2006年的收益预期计算,其预期本益比是18.7倍,而维亚康姆、时代华纳和迪斯尼分别是20、19.7和18.5倍。哥伦比亚公司的本益比是14倍,不过预计它的收益增幅也低很多。

据UBS的数据,相对于今年的每股自由现金流预期,新闻集团的股价/现金流之比是13.8倍(这个数字已考虑其在DirecTV Group Inc.和英国天空广播公司(British Sky Broadcasting Group PLC)持有的股份),低于19.7倍的行业平均水平。UBS还预计新闻集团的自由现金流今年能增长20%以上,而预计行业平均增幅为10%。

Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.的迈克尔?纳撒松(Michael Nathanson)说,新闻集团的收益增幅将达到市场平均水平的两倍,比它的竞争对手高出5个百分点,就这一点来说,其股价便宜得让人不可思议。纳撒松对新闻集团的股票评级是买进,他不持有该股。

对新闻集团的批评之一是,它仍过于专注于增长缓慢的报纸和电视台业务。但正是这些业务给新闻集团带来了大量的现金流,而且公司的其他领域也有增长。其有线网络分部(包括福克斯新闻频道、FX频道和地区性体育节目网)给公司带来了22%的年利润增幅。一些分析师预计,随著收视率的上升,福克斯新闻台的广告费率将上调。新闻集团在意大利的卫星电视供应商Sky Italia以及在亚洲的Star TV去年的营运收入均增长了20%以上。

新闻集团持有DirecTV Group和英国天空广播公司34%和38%的股份(前者终于实现了年度盈利。)

新闻集团去年将总部从澳大利亚迁到了美国。从一定程度上说,它正在借助Star TV等国际化业务瞄准亚洲中产阶级日益集聚的财富。去年7月,新闻集团斥资5.8亿美元收购的青少年交友网站MySpace.com越来越受欢迎,最终或许能变成它的又一个赚钱机器。

由于近来新型媒体公司如Google、eBay和雅虎(Yahoo)等公司股价低迷,一些投资者开始转向所谓的内容供应商,这些供应商现在开始通过各种渠道(包括各种手持装置)销售节目。

新闻集团的股价较去年10月份时的14美元左右已有显著上升。如果媒体类股投资者(包括对冲基金)在幕后推动默多克回购更多股票的努力能够成功,那么该股还将进一步上涨。

新闻集团发言人盖瑞?金斯堡(Gary Ginsberg)说,公司正在实施总额30亿美元的股票回购计划;计划完成后,公司将视资产负债以及股价情况再做决定。不过有一点很肯定,如果股价还这么低,那么用现金进行回购将是非常合理的举动。

新闻集团去年6月宣布了一项为期两年、总额30亿美元的回购计划,截至目前它已回购价值20亿美元的股票。

该公司的资产负债情况也比许多竞争对手强,这使它有条件进行更多的股票回购。总市值530亿美元的新闻集团截至去年12月底的净负债是69亿美元。与之相比,市值539亿美元的迪斯尼负债额是114亿美元。时代华纳的市值和负债额分别是807亿美元和161亿美元,该公司已同意实施总额200亿美元的股票回购计划。

资产管理公司Mark Asset Management的莫里斯?马克(Morris Mark)说,新闻集团的股价相当便宜。到了一定时候市场会意识到这一点的。Mark公司旗下管理著5亿美元的资产,它持有60多万股新闻集团的股票。
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