Oil Prices Respond to Crises, But Supply, Demand Are Key
Every time oil prices seem poised to drop below $60 a barrel, a crisis looms, causing prices to spike.
Last week brought a bumper crop of trouble: guerrilla war in Nigeria, sectarian violence in Iraq, terrorists in Saudi Arabia, and in Venezuela, more anti-U.S. rhetoric and threats from Hugo Chávez to cut off supplies. These days, oil is every troublemaker's favorite weapon.
Under the circumstances, I'm surprised oil prices remained as stable as they did. This week, with news that Saudi Arabian security forces had killed five terror suspects, oil futures retreated to $61 a barrel, and again seemed like they might drop below $60.
Bulking Up on Oil
With oil dominating the headlines, I've gotten a flurry of emails from readers asking if they should be increasing their oil and gas positions. The author of one from western Canada reported that everyone he knows north of the border is bulking up on the energy sector, and wonders if he should join the crowd.
Let's step back from the headlines for a moment. Oil prices tend to move in broad secular trends related to fundamental supply-and-demand issues. One of the most important is the strength of the global economy.
In the short term, oil prices respond to crises and disasters, whether natural ones, like Hurricane Katrina, or man-made, like terrorist attacks on the oil infrastructure. But it isn't news that some of the biggest oil producers are found in unstable parts of the world. There's always some threat to oil supplies somewhere, which makes it pretty much a constant. I see no reason to let any of last week's developments influence investing decisions.
Supply and Demand Forces
Crises aside, oil prices are about 15% off their post-Katrina highs, a result of higher production, modest conservation efforts and, at least in the U.S., a mild winter. In other words, simple supply-and-demand forces, and not any headline-grabbing news events, have led to lower prices. Stocks of major oil companies don't yet reflect this decline. The Energy Select SPDR Fund, an energy sector exchange-traded fund, was at $53 this week, barely 10% off its high reached in late January. Remarkably, many oil stocks are higher now than they were in the wake of Hurricane Katrina and $70-a-barrel oil.
This condition is unlikely to persist. Stock buyers seem to be anticipating higher oil prices in the near future. If they don't materialize, stock prices are likely to fall into line with lower oil prices. Even if oil prices do rise modestly, that already seems to be factored into current stock prices. Under these circumstances, the risk/reward ratio for oil stocks strikes me as unappealing.
Low on Energy Stocks
If I'd had the clairvoyance to remain overweighted in oil stocks, I'd sell some now. But having sold most of my positions as oil and stock prices rose, my energy holdings are now about as low as I want them to get.
Oil stocks make up roughly 9% of the S&P 500-stock index, which would be a neutral weighting in a portfolio. In keeping with the philosophy to buy lower and sell higher, I buy oil stocks when prices are declining and sell as they rise. I move my oil positions from about 5% of the total (where they are now) to as much as 20%, which is where they were when I began taking profits.
Still, that doesn't mean I can't wring some more profits out of my remaining positions. One of the energy stocks I still own is Suncor, a Canadian company that has been producing oil from Alberta's oil sands. I'm glad I held on, as the stock is up 18% so far this year and nearly 90% from a year ago. But Suncor is a company that depends on high oil prices, because it's costly to extract oil from sand. Fortunately, the stock has shown such momentum that its options trade at a premium to other oil stocks. This strikes me as an ideal opportunity to raise cash by selling calls.
When I checked this week, the Suncor Sept. 80s were selling for $8.60 a contract. With the stock trading at $75, that's the equivalent of locking in an 18% return by the September expiration date. Should the stock trade above $88.60 when the option expires, I'll have forgone some additional profit. But, as I often say, why be greedy? And if the stock falls by then, I'll simply keep the $8.60. This is a risk/reward equation I feel comfortable with.
危机的确影响油价，但供需基本面仍是主导
每当油价准备跌至每桶60美元之下时，总会爆发一场危机，让油价掉头上扬。
上周，麻烦又来了：尼日利亚的武装冲突、伊拉克的宗派暴力事件、沙特阿拉伯的恐怖事件，加上委内瑞拉总统乌戈?查韦斯(Hugo Chavez)的反美言论和扬言中断对美国石油供应的威胁。这些日子，每个惹是生非的人似乎都把石油当成了武器。
令人奇怪的是，在这种情况下油价却异常平静。本周，伴随著沙特安全部队杀死5名恐怖嫌疑人的消息，原油期货却回落至每桶61美元，并有再探60美元之势。
随著有关石油的消息占据了各大报章的头条，我的电子邮箱也挤满了询问是否应增持石油和天然气头寸的信件。一封来自加拿大西部的信这样写道，他周围每个人都在增持能源资产，不知道他是否也应加入这个行列。
不要让这些热点话题干扰了我们的视线。从长远来看，油价走势必然要遵从供求基本面。其中很重要的一个因素就是全球经济走势。
短期内油价的确会对一些危机以及灾难（无论是卡特里娜飓风这样的自然灾难还是对石油基础设施进行恐怖袭击这样的人为灾难）做出回应。但某些全球首屈一指的石油生产商将工厂设在一些动荡地区这已不算是新闻。总会有一些地区面临石油供给的威胁，这些问题一直时有发生。我认为我们不应该让上周的事件影响了我们的投资决定。
尽管发生种种供给危机，油价依然较卡特里娜飓风过后的高点下跌了15%左右，这主要是产量增长、能源节约举措以及暖冬(至少在美国是这样)所致。换句话说，正是供需基本面－－而不是这些头条新闻－－导致了油价下跌。而大型石油公司的股价并没有反映油价的这种跌幅。投资能源行业的交易所上市基金The Energy Select SPDR Fund本周报53美元，仅较1月末高点下跌10%。不难看出，很多石油类股的股价仍然高于卡特里娜过后油价达到70美元时的水平。
这种情况是难以维系的。股市中看涨投资者正在期待油价在短期内再度走高。而一旦他们的希望落空，石油类股必然伴随油价的回落而下挫。即便油价温和上扬，也早已被当前的股价所消化。因此，在我看来石油类股的风险/回报率可没什么吸引力。
就算我有超人的洞察力，到现在仍然持有著大量的石油股，我也该卖出一部分了。不过事实上我在油价和石油类股上涨时已经出售了多数股票，目前我所持有的能源股已经少到我希望的程度了。
石油类股在标准普尔500指数中占大约9%的比例，这一比例对于一个投资组合而言应该是中等程度的。凭藉高抛低吸的原则，我在石油类股下跌时买进，在上涨时卖出。我的石油头寸最初为5%左右（现在也是这一比例），最高时达到20%，之后我便开始获利出局。
当然，我并不是说我手中剩余的股票不会有更大的获利。其中之一是加拿大石油生产商Suncor。我非常庆幸我一直握著它，今年迄今为止该股上涨了18%，较上年同期上涨近90%。不过, Suncor是一家依赖高油价的企业，该公司从阿尔伯达省的油沙中提取石油，成本很高。幸运的是，从期权走势来看，该股仍然保持著上涨势头。我认为这是一个通过卖出看涨期权获利的大好时机。
本周我查询期权价格时发现，Suncor的9月份执行价为80美元的看涨期权报每合约8.60美元。由于该股现报75美元，这相当于锁定9月份到期的18%的回报率。如果期权到期时该股高于88.60美元，我可能要损失一部分额外的利润。但正如我常说的，为什么要这么贪婪呢？如果到时候该股下跌，我就可以独享这8.60美元的利润了。对这一风险/回报水平我感到非常满意。
