China Goes From Torrid to Just Hot
Ad-Spending Growth Slows
To a Still-Enviable 18%
As Foreign Firms Pour In
HONG KONG -- Only in booming China could double-digit growth be a disappointment.
Spending on advertising in China grew 18% last year from 2004, according to a report released yesterday by CTR Market Research Co. Such a jump is the envy of many markets, but it was off from 22% the year before and a skyscraping 39% jump in 2003, as ad spending was in hot pursuit of the new Chinese consumer.
Multinational ad agencies, spurred by the promise of massive growth, have poured into China, which some industry executives expect to become the world's second-largest market by 2010. By contrast, ad spending in the U.S., the world's biggest ad market, rose just 3% in 2005, to $150 billion, according to TNS Media Intelligence, a joint-venture partner with CTR.
HOW IT ALL ADDS UP
? See a chart of ad spending in China.
But "advertising expenditure [in China] is becoming more stable, and of course the rate of growth will be slowing down gradually," said Jason Fu, deputy director of media intelligence at CTR. Next year, CTR estimates, the industry will grow only 15%.
Last year also brought setbacks for global media companies, such as Walt Disney Co., Viacom Inc. and News Corp., which have been clamoring to establish a presence in the world's biggest market of television viewers. The Chinese government thwarted some of their efforts to gain broadcast rights amid a crackdown on local and foreign media.
Basing its calculations on published rate-card figures, CTR reported about $30 billion in advertising in China last year, tying the nation with the United Kingdom and Germany as the third-biggest ad market in the world, after the U.S. and Japan. Competitor VNU NV's Nielsen Media Research said last month it had calculated that China's ad industry grew 21% last year to $37 billion.
Foreign companies represent about 30% of all the money spent on advertising in China, with Procter & Gamble's Olay face cream and Rejoice toothpaste the country's top-spending brands. That's a big change from 2003, when foreign brands were vastly outspent by local Chinese brands. The foreign brands "are facing more keen competition with the rise of more local brands," said Rita Chan, Nielsen's China research director.
The sharpened competition may be spurring advertisers to turn to less traditional means of getting their message across amid all the noise. They are pushing further into direct marketing and alternative media such as liquid-crystal-display billboards inside elevators and on busy street corners -- as in the West, where ad budgets are being split among more media.
Big marketers "are finding that TV alone is not sufficient to reach the Chinese consumer," said Greg Paull, the Beijing-based principal of marketing consulting firm R3. It doesn't register in the CTR data, but "local event companies are doing great business with on-the-ground work," he added.
It is difficult to gauge the impact of the slower pace of growth in ad spending on the multinational advertising agencies, since most don't break out the revenue they reap from China. But in an interview in The Wall Street Journal last fall, WPP Group PLC Chief Executive Martin Sorrell warned, speaking of Asia, that "there will be bumps economically. Things cannot continue to go up 10% or 15% or 20% indefinitely."
The change in the pace of ad spending in China last year was most evident in the newspaper industry, which saw ad spending drop 1%. Advertisers also seemed wary of TV advertising prices, which can set them back more than $4 million for two months of 15-second spots after the nightly weather forecast on national broadcaster China Central Television. But to tap China's growing car-driving culture, advertisers poured 39% more money into radio.
Among categories, cleaning products took the biggest hit, with a 13% decline. That is because last year "was peaceful for China, unlike the previous years, when [severe acute respiratory syndrome] caused a big boom in advertising cleaners," said Tian Tao, vice president of CTR.
The ad industry is cautious about the gross figures released by CTR and Nielsen Media Research, because they don't account for rampant discounts of as much as 50% offered by media companies on their published rate cards. "The TV rates are a little like [China's] night market," said Mr. Paull of R3. "They vary significantly across the board based on relationships."
中国广告支出飞速发展之势开始放缓
也只有在中国，两位数的增幅还会让人备感失望。
CTR市场研究(CTR Market Research Co.)周四发布报告称，2005年中国的广告支出较上年增长18%。这样大幅度的增长在很多市场都是求之不得，但在中国却远远不及2004年22%的增幅，2003年激增39%的表现也只能让人遥想当年了，当时商家利用大量广告对中国新一代消费者进行狂轰滥炸。
前竟如此美好，引无数公司竞折腰。跨国广告公司纷纷涌入中国，有些业内高级管理人士预计，中国将在2010年之前发展成为全球第二大广告市场。与之相比，美国是全球规模最大的广告市场，但据CTR的合资企业TNS Media Intelligence的数据，2005年广告支出仅增长区区3%，至1,500亿美元。
但是，“（中国的）广告支出正在慢慢趋于稳定，当然增长幅度也会慢慢降下来，”CTR 媒介智讯的总监符致远(Jason Fu)说道。根据CTR的预测，明年中国的广告支出增幅会只有15%。
去年，沃尔特-迪斯尼公司(Walt Disney Co.)、维亚康姆(Viacom Inc.)和新闻集团(News Corp.)等跨国媒体公司在中国市场遭遇了不少挫折，它们争先恐后来到中国，意欲在这个全球电视观众人数最多的市场占据一席之地。但中国政府针对国内外媒体采取了一系列治理措施，这些公司申请落地权的努力也相继折戟沉沙。
根据媒体刊登的广告价目表，CTR通过计算得出，中国2005年广告支出约为300亿美元，与英国和德国并列第三名，仅次于美国和日本。另一家市场调研公司VNU NV旗下尼尔森媒体研究(Nielsen Media Research)上个月则公布，据他们的测算，中国2005年广告支出增长21%，至370亿美元。
外国公司的广告支出占中国广告支出总额的30%，宝洁(Procter & Gamble Co.)的玉兰油(Olay)和飘柔(Rejoice)两大品牌的支出数一数二。这与2003年的格局迥然不同，当时国内品牌的广告支出远远超过了国外品牌。随著中国涌现出更多的国内品牌，外国品牌面临著日益激烈的竞争，尼尔森媒体研究中国业务主管Rita Chan说。
日益激烈的竞争可能正在促使广告厂商纷纷寻找新渠道，在一片喧嚣声中传递自己的产品信息。它们加大了直销力度，并选择电梯和闹市街头的液晶广告牌等媒体渠道──和西方一样，广告支出被更多类型的媒体分而食之。
营销顾问公司R3驻北京的业务主管葛列格?保罗(Greg Paull)说，大型营销机构“慢慢发现只凭借电视（广告）并不能充分接触到中国消费者。他同时表示，虽然CTR的数据并没有进行细分，但承办各类活动的国内公司在其他广告渠道方面都有不错的表现。
很难衡量中国广告支出增幅放缓给各大跨国广告公司造成的影响，它们很少公布中国业务收入的详情。但WPP Group PLC首席执行长马丁?索莱尔(Martin Sorrell)去年接受本报采访时就针对亚洲市场发出了警告：“会出现经济滑坡，任何事都不可能在10%、15%或20%的速度上无限期地增长。”
去年中国广告支出增幅放缓的势头在报纸行业表现得最明显，这类广告的支出增幅下降了1%。电视广告价格也出现了下降势头，中国中央电视台(China Central Television)晚间天气预报后插播的15秒广告，两个月连播的费用已经降到略高于400万美元的水平。相反，为了接触到与日俱增的私家车车主，广告商们在广播电台的支出激增39%。
从产品分类来看，清洁用品广告跌幅最大，达到13%。这是因为“中国去年事态平静，不像前几年（非典型肺炎促使）人们纷纷抢购广告中的清洁用品，”CTR副总裁田涛说。
和其他市场相比，中国广告市场去年从金融服务产品得到的收入大幅增长，主要来自威士(Visa)、中国招商银行(China Merchants Bank)和交通银行(Bank of Communications)。田涛说，营销机构日益迎合中国新生中产阶级的趣味，“金融服务和奢侈品将成为来年的增长动力。”
广告行业对CTR市场研究和尼尔森媒体研究发布的总额数据保持谨慎态度，因为它们没有计入媒体公司就刊登价目给出的高达50%的折让。R3的保罗说，“电视广告价格有些像（中国）的夜市，根据人情关系的远近，价格差别很大。”
