The agonies of too much choice
From restaurant meals to retirement plans, we all prefer to be given choices. Ask any politician: they all know that offering "more choice" is a sure-fire vote winner.
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Perhaps best not to ask Patricia Hewitt, the health secretary, though. An opinion poll published on Monday suggests that most people know little and care less about her Patient Choice initiative.
Hailed as a "revolution" in healthcare, it allows patients to choose between at least four hospitals or clinics for non-emergency treatment. Yet the poll - commissioned by the Department of Health itself - found that only one in five people knew much about this brave new world of choice that dawned on January 1.
Such indifference may be frustrating to politicians but it will come as no surprise to social psychologists. Over the years they have amassed a wealth of evidence showing that choice is far from being the unalloyed good politicians seem to believe. There really is such a thing as too much choice - and we can reach our limit with surprising speed.
Such findings have implications for more than just ministers who use choice as if it were some magical mantra. Failure to appreciate the psychology of choice is now suspected of holding back entire product markets, and leading millions of people into decisions that threaten their long-term wealth and happiness.
The most obvious downside of too much choice is that people feel overwhelmed and make poor choices - or even none at all. In a study carried out in a California supermarket in 2000, Professor Sheena Iyengar of Columbia University and Professor Mark Lepper of Stanford University set up a tasting booth offering different types of jam.
When an impressive 24 varieties were on display, about 60 per cent of passers-by stopped at the booth - compared with just 40 per cent when six types were shown. But when it came to finally choosing a pot of jam to buy, the proportions were dramatically reversed: just 3 per cent of the visits to the 24-variety booth resulted in a purchase. Meanwhile, 30 per cent of those who visited the smaller display made a purchase, making its more limited selection far more effective at converting visits into sales.
Buying jam is one thing; choosing a long-term financial plan is altogether more serious. Even so, according to another study by Prof Iyengar and her Columbia colleague Prof Wei Jiang, too much choice can have worryingly similar effects on the decision-making process.
Tens of millions of Americans have taken up so-called 401(k) retirement plans, which allow employees to defer some of their salary in exchange for contributions into a variety of funds, plus a range of incentives.
Choosing the right plan is not trivial - and deciding not to choose at all and opting out can have serious long-term financial implications.
Even so, when examining statistics on the take-up of 401(k) plans, the Columbia researchers found that the more options that were offered, the higher the probability of people cutting through the complexity by simply walking away. Plans offering just five fund options were taken up by 72 per cent of employees; those offering more than 10 times as many options were taken up by 61 per cent.
Research points to the same explanation, whether the choice is between gourmet jam today or more abstract jam tomorrow: as the number of choices increases, so does the perceived risk of making a bad choice - prompting people to refuse to make one at all.
An obvious remedy is to reduce the number of choices. Several studies have found that people faced with making decisions start to feel overwhelmed when confronted by about 10 or more options. Yet as the jam study shows, a plethora of choices can be effective at getting attention, if not sales.
Sheer number of options is not always the problem. A 2001 study of online purchases of electronic products by Dr Byung-Kwan Lee of the University of Texas, Austin, found that relatively few options can be no less daunting if each has a host of different features. The result is "information overload", poor choice - and consumer dissatisfaction.
Mobile phones, with their abundance of everything from pricing plans to free calls to cover designs, are a case in point.
In a study of mobile phone-buying decisions, published last year in the Journal of Product and Brand Management, Dr Sarah Maxwell of Fordham University, New York, found that offering ever more options with each model not only failed to increase customer happiness in the case of cheap phones; it reduced satisfaction with pricier models too.
It seems consumers get increasingly nervous about making the right decision when confronted with a complex and expensive product. According to Dr Maxwell, offering three options per model is perfectly adequate, while anything over seven is counter-productive.
Seasoned consumers can usually cope with more options and, indeed, may expect to be offered them. They know from experience what to focus on and what to ignore.
Mr Lee suggests online retailers should therefore do more to find out the level of knowledge of consumers using their websites, tailoring the number of models and options accordingly.
But when a product first emerges, everyone is a beginner - and if the results of these studies are any guide, manufacturers who offer too many options can expect to see their new products shunned by overwhelmed consumers.
Bizarrely, psychologists have found that even seasoned consumers often end up regretting their expertly made choices.
Part of the reason is that any choice involves rejecting alternatives - and people often suspect that, despite everything, they have still made the wrong choice(even gourmets have been known to look with envy at the meals chosen by other diners).
Research by Professor Barry Schwartz of Swarthmore College, Pennsylvania, has found that while we prefer some choice to none at all, this "road not taken" effect ensures our happiness rapidly declines with the number of options.
Another key factor is so-called adaptation, in which pleasure from making good decisions also quickly evaporates. According to Prof Schwartz, research has shown that people consistently underestimate how soon the feel-good factor wears off.
A recent review of the evidence for the psychological effects of choice by Dr Remi Desmeules of the University of British Columbia concluded that their impact is important enough to merit inclusion in marketing strategies - especially for innovative products.
According to Mr Desmeules, the level of choice offered to consumers should be tailored to their likely level of expertise, to reduce the risk that they deal with the complexity by walking away. At the same time, advertisers should manage expectations to smooth the descent back to reality prompted by adaptation - thus increasing the chances of consumers coming back for more.
Government ministers keen for the mantra of more choice to retain its vote-winning powers might do well to follow the same advice.
Robert Matthews is visiting reader in science at Aston University, Birmingham
选择太多并不好
最近公布的一项民意调查显示，多数人对于英国卫生大臣帕特里夏?休伊特(Patricia Hewitt)推行的“病人选择”(Patient Choice)计划知之甚少，而且漠不关心。
该计划被誉为医疗领域内的一次“革命”，让病人从至少四家医院或诊所中选择一家接受非紧急治疗。但是，由英国卫生部委托的民意调查发现，仅五分之一的人了解今年1月1日启动的这个有选择的新体制。
人们的冷漠态度可能令政治家感到沮丧，但对社会心理学家并不意外。在过去的几年中，他们收集的大量证据显示，选择远远不是政治家看似相信的那样十全十美。选择太多确实是个问题――而且，我们到达容忍极限的速度令人惊讶。
这些研究结果的意义，不仅适用于把选择当作万灵丹的政客。未能掌握选择心理，如今被怀疑阻碍了整个产品市场的发展，还让数百万人做出威胁自己长期健康和幸福的决定。
干脆什么都不选
太多选择最明显的弊端是令人难以招架，以致做出糟糕的决定――或者干脆不做任何决定。2000年，在加州某超市进行的一项研究中，哥伦比亚大学的希娜?亚格尔教授(Sheena Lyengar)和斯坦福大学的马克?莱珀教授(Mark Lepper)在超市内设立了一个可品尝不同品种果酱的摊位。
当这个摊位摆放24种之多的果酱时，约有60%的过路人会在摊前驻足；而陈列6种果酱时，仅有40%的顾客会停留。但在最终选择要买的果酱时，比例发生了戏剧性的逆转：在光顾24种果酱摊的顾客中，最终只有3%的人掏钱，而30%的顾客在陈列6种果酱的摊位前购买了果酱。在将客流量转换成销售量方面，较少的选择效果好得多。
买果酱是一回事，选择一个长期的理财计划是更严肃的事。尽管如此，亚格尔教授和她在哥伦比亚大学的同事Wei Jiang教授的另外一项研究表明，太多选择可能会对决策过程产生令人担忧的相似效果。
数千万美国人选择了所谓的“401(k)退休金储蓄计划”，即允许员工将部分税前工资投入各类基金，外加一系列激励。
选择合适的计划不是小事――而决定完全不选择和不参加，可能带来严重的长期财务问题。
虽然如此，但在分析“401(k)计划”的参加数据时，哥伦比亚大学的研究员发现，提供的选择越多，人们为避免复杂选择而简单地回避的概率就越高。只提供5种基金的计划有72%的员工参加，而提供10倍以上选择的计划只有61%的员工参加。
无论是选择今天的美味果酱或是明天更为抽象的果酱，研究结果均指向同一个原因：随着选择数量的增加，人们感到做出错误决定的风险也随之增加，促使他们不愿做出任何决定。
一个明显的补救方法是减少选择的数量。几项调查发现，面临做决定的人在面对10个或更多选择的时候开始感到难以招架。但正如果酱调查显示，众多选择有助于吸引眼球，尽管对销量无助。
“信息超载”
选择的绝对数量并不总是问题所在。2001年，德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校的Byung-Kwan Lee博士对网上购买电子产品所做的调查显示，如果每一种产品具有许多不同的功能，那么相对较少的选择仍然令人望而生畏。结果是“信息超载”，选择错误――以及消费者的不满。
手机是最好的佐证――从收费计划到免费电话，还有手机盖的设计，令人目不暇接。
去年，在《产品和品牌管理杂志》(Journal of Product and Brand Management)公布的购买手机决定的调查中，纽约福特汉姆大学的莎拉?麦克斯韦(Sarah Maxwell)博士发现，为每款手机提供更多选择，不仅不能增加廉价手机用户的快乐，还降低了他们购买价格较高的款式的满意度。
3种选择已足够
当消费者面对一个复杂昂贵的产品时，他对于能否做出正确决定变得越发紧张。麦克斯韦博士说，每种型号的产品提供3种选择已完全足够了，而任何产品提供7种以上的选择都会产生反效果。
经验丰富的消费者通常能应对更多的选择，而事实上，他们可能期待更多的选择。他们从经验中学会，应该关注什么，忽视什么。
因此，Lee先生建议，网络零售商应更努力了解使用其网站的消费者的知识水平，然后对款式和选择的数量进行相应调整。
但当一个产品首次出现时，它对每个人来说都是陌生的――而且，如果这些调查的结果有任何指导作用的话，提供过多选择的生产商可以预期，对选择应接不暇的消费者会刻意躲避其新产品。
奇怪的是，心理学家发现，就连经验丰富的消费者最终也常常会后悔他们的精心选择。
有得必有失
部分原因是，任何选择都意味着摒弃其余的选择――而且，人们常常怀疑，无论如何慎重，他们仍会做出错误的选择（据说，就连美食家也会对其他用餐者选择的菜肴垂涎三尺）。
宾夕法尼亚州斯沃斯莫尔学院巴里?施瓦兹(Barry Schwartz)教授所做的调查发现，虽然比起毫无选择，我们还是偏爱有所选择，但这种“未走的路”效果，使我们的快乐随着选择数量的增加而迅速减少。
另外一个主要因素是所谓的适应：人们做出正确决定时的快乐迅速消失。施瓦兹教授说，调查显示，人们一直低估了感觉良好的因素消失速度之快。
最近，加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚大学的雷米?德斯穆尔斯(Remi Desmeules)博士在研究了选择的心理效应证据后推论，这种效应影响重大，值得纳入市场营销策略――尤其是对于创新产品。
德斯穆尔斯先生说，向消费者提供的选择水平，应根据其可能具有的专业知识水平进行调整，以降低他们以回避来应对复杂性的风险。同时，广告商应当妥善管理期望，减缓因适应产生的失落感，从而增加回头客的机率。
寄望更多选择以保持得票能力的政客，也不妨听取相同的建议。
罗伯特?马休斯(Robert Matthews)系英国伯明翰阿斯顿大学(Aston University)理科访问讲师。
