FEER(9/11)Despite Economy, Tokyo Office-construction Booming
OLD-TIMERS IN TOKYO are scratching their heads. Forests of cranes are sprouting and construction zones are mushrooming, creating towering new landmarks in the centre of the capital. A building boom is sweeping central Tokyo, the likes of which have not been seen since Japan's days of postwar high growth in the 1950s and 1960s. And all this during the deep freeze of the country's long economic slump.
Notorious for its ground-hugging, chaotic architecture, Tokyo is getting a facelift as spectacular new cities rise within it. One of the most impressive is Shiodome, a 31-hectare slice of business, residential and commercial waterfront on Tokyo Bay that's about half complete. Abutting the glitzy Ginza shopping district and the shogunal Hama Rikyu Garden, Shiodome is already a dramatic knot of skyscrapers punctuated by leading ad agency Dentsu's new headquarters, a titanic wedge of glass by French architect Jean Nouvel. An array of midair walkways, sunken plazas and underground thoroughfares connect offices, shops, condominiums and hotels. Girded by rail, subway and highway, Shiodome is to be a workplace for 61,000 people and a home to 6,000. By its completion in 2006, it is expected to have created 93,000 jobs and economic benefits of 1.6 trillion ($13.6 billion), part of an estimated 10 trillion to be generated by over 100 Tokyo redevelopment zones such as Marunouchi and Shinagawa.
While Japan's economy has been showing some signs of recovery lately, few believe the recession will end soon. So why all the jackhammer racket? There are a number of factors, including falling land prices and deregulation. Another is that many of these projects are so large that they require up to 20 years to complete and must continue regardless of prevailing economic winds.
For instance, planning for Roppongi Hills, an 11-hectare, 500-billion office, residential and entertainment complex, started in 1986. Negotiations with 500 landowners took 14 years. The complex caused a sensation when developer Mori Building opened it in April. Now, its office space is 85% occupied and its deluxe homes are expected to be full by the end of 2003. "We've been through the ups and downs, but [President Minoru] Mori had a strong vision and will," says Toru Nagamori of Mori Building. "The important thing is to have a single will behind the project."
Another boom factor was the 1987 privatization of Japanese National Railways, which put large plots up for grabs. Ten years later, JNR's old Shiodome Station freight terminal was auctioned off to help pay debts. Media companies such as Dentsu, Kyodo News and Nippon Television Network Corp. decided to build headquarters there. Other big firms in Shiodome include All Nippon Airways, Fujitsu and Shiseido. "We made a new town from zero," notes Shigeru Koshikawa, who manages Dentsu's Caretta Shiodome shopping mall tucked under its 48-storey headquarters. "That concept itself appeals to consumers."
The area on which Shiodome stands was reclaimed from Tokyo Bay under the medieval shoguns. Japan's first railway, a line to Yokohama, was built there, with the mikado (emperor) himself presiding over its 1872 inauguration that ushered Japan into the steam age. The station was destroyed in a 1923 earthquake; now a new concrete reproduction of it houses cafes. It is dwarfed by the 43-storey Shiodome City Centre, an office tower developed by Mitsui Fudosan and the Singapore government that is home to restaurants, a cooking school and a Porsche showroom.
Over at Caretta Shiodome, about 80 people are lined up outside Kyoto tea shop Tsujiri, one of the mall's 56 stores. At a nearby theatre, the cast of Broadway musical Mamma Mia is warming up. Forty-seven storeys above, all tables are booked at eateries with panoramic views of Tokyo Bay and Ginza's lights. These commercial and cultural synergies make a fine melange, says Koshikawa. "In the first six months, the number of visitors as well as sales have exceeded our estimates by nearly 20%," he adds; on average over 200,000 people visit the mall weekly.
Most of Shiodome's office space is occupied by corporate headquarters, which provide a steady clientele for local businesses. But the flip side of the boom are the vacant buildings in Tokyo, even in Ginza, that corporations ditched for new digs. "When they left those places, especially in Yokohama, it was almost impossible to sell the space," says Keiko Otsuki, a real-estate analyst at Morgan Stanley Japan.
Another downside is the office glut. With new buildings coming onto the market at about the same time, the industry fears an oversupply. At the end of March, the vacancy rate of offices in the five wards of central Tokyo hit a high of 8.18%. Says Otsuki: "Owners can't get the same rents as before. Basically, rents are falling."
Others see macroeconomic woes overshadowing the building frenzy. "The problem is, in the current Japanese economy, with a flat nominal GDP and deflationary undertow, you're not guaranteed rental tenants," says independent financial analyst Stephen Church , head of Analytica Japan. He recalls fears that a chunk of Shiodome City Centre would be empty after a merger between prospective tenants collapsed. Developer Mitsui Fudosan has since said that most of the space has been let to an affiliate.
The property-investment bubble also reflects underlying economic distortions such as abnormally low interest rates and the bad-loan crisis, says Church. "What can we do? We can't stop construction. We just have to live with it," says Fred Takahashi of Shiodome lead developer Sumitomo Realty & Development, which is erecting three structures on the site, including Japan's tallest residential tower at 190 metres.
"It's not that difficult to find tenants for new buildings because the technology is so different," adds Takahashi. Most of the problem was concentrated in the first three months of the year, he says, and July was the best month for rental contracts in the past five years. "People started saying, 'I think we should get on the train now, or we'll miss it.'"
东京写字楼遍地开花
过去在东京呆过的人现在可能会不认得路。在这个城市的中心，到处耸立著吊车，建筑工地如雨后春笋般拔地而起，新的高耸入云的标志性建筑正在建设之中。整个东京市中心都是一片热火朝天的建设景象，这种场面自上世纪50-60年代的战后高速增长时期结束后还从未有过，而且这一切都发生在日本经济长期陷入严重萧条的情况下。
东京曾经因其低矮和杂乱的建筑而名声狼藉，但随著众多宏大壮观的城中新城拔地而起，这座城市的面貌也焕然一新。给人印象最深刻的新城之一就是汐留(Shiodome)地区。该地区濒临东京湾，占地31公顷，集商业和住宅为一体，目前工程进度已近半。汐留紧邻灯火通明的银座(Ginza)商业区和幕府时期的滨离宫恩赐公园(Hama Rikyu Garden)，目前已是高楼大厦林立。日本头号广告公司电通(Dentsu)的新总部大楼就位于此，大楼系大块玻璃结构建筑，由法国建筑师让努维尔(Jean Nouvel)设计。
在这里，众多的空中走廊、地下广场和通道连接著办公楼、商店、公寓和酒店。汐留为铁路、地铁和高速公路所环绕，拟建设成为一个可供61,000人工作，6,000户家庭居住的商业和住宅区。到2006年建成时，该项目将创造93,000个就业机会，产生1.6万亿日圆(合136亿美元)的经济效益。而这只是东京对其下属的100多个地区进行重新开发的计划的一部分，这些地区包括丸内(Marunouchi)和品川(Shinagawa)，开发所带来的总体经济效益约为10万亿日圆。
虽然日本经济近来已显示出一些复苏的迹象，但几乎没有人认为日本的经济衰退将很快结束。那么，如此大兴土木的原因何在？这有很多原因，其中包括土地价格下降以及政府放松管制等。另一原因是，很多项目的规模如此之大，以致于需要长达20年的时间才能完成，因此，不管经济风云如何变幻，都必须继续下去。
以六班木新兴商业区(Roppongi Hills, 又名：六本木山庄)为例。该地区占地11公顷，开发成本为5,000亿日圆， 规划工作早在1986年就已开始，目标是建成一个集办公、住宅和娱乐为一体的综合开发区。
开发商与该地区原有的500名住户的谈判就花费了14年时间。日本森大厦公司(Mori Building)今年4月启动这一项目时曾轰动一时。如今，85%的办公楼已入住，而到2003年年底豪华住宅也将完全入住。森大厦的Toru Nagamori说，该公司的业务经历了一些起伏和波折，但公司董事长森稔(Minoru Mori)很有决心和远见。
地产开发如此兴旺的另外一个因素是日本国有铁道(Japanese National Railways, 简称：JNR)1987年进行的私有化使得市场的土地供应量大增。10年后，JNR为偿付债务，而将原有的汐留火车站拍卖。电通、共同社(Kyodo News)以及日本电视网络公司(Nippon Television Network Corp.)决定在此修建总部大楼。涌入汐留的其他大公司还有全日空(All Nippon Airways)、富士通(Fujitsu)和资生堂(Shiseido Co. Ltd., J.SSD)等。
电通Caretta Shiodome地下购物中心的负责人Shigeru Koshikawa说，汐留新城可谓从零起步，这种做法本身就很吸引消费者。
汐留的所在地是中世纪幕府时期对东京湾进行填海造田而形成的。日本的第一条铁路，即东京至横滨的铁路就是从这里修建的。1872年，日本天皇亲自主持了竣工典礼，标志著日本从此进入蒸汽机时代。该车站于1923年毁于地震，现今在其上新建的混凝土建筑变成了咖啡馆。与43层的汐留中心城(Shiodome City Centre)相比，这座建筑就相形失色了。汐留中心城是三井不动产(Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd., J.MRE)和新加坡政府合作开发的写字楼，内有餐馆、烹饪学校和保时捷轿车(Porsche)展厅。
在Caretta Shiodome那边，约有80个人在京都都路里(Tsujiri)茶馆门外排队等候，都路里只是这个购物中心56家商店中的一家。在旁边的剧院，百老汇音乐剧“Mamma Mia“的演出人员正在进行热身彩排。47层以上是观景餐馆，里面所有的座位都已客满，东京湾的秀美景色和灯火辉煌的银座从这里可以尽收眼底。Koshikawa说，商业和文化在这里得到了完美的结合。今年头6个月，这里的游客人数和销售额较预期就高出了近20%。每周的游客人次平均在20万以上。
汐留的多数写字楼被用作公司总部，这为当地商业提供了稳定的客户来源。但这种建设热潮的负面影响就是，由于很多公司放弃了原有的办公楼，迁至这里的新楼，东京的闲置房产增多。即使在繁华的银座，也出现了这种情况。 摩根士丹利日本(Morgan Stanley Japan)的地产业分析师Keiko Otsuki说，大公司搬迁后，特别是从横滨搬走后，原来的地方就很难再卖出去。
另一负面影响就是写字楼过多。由于新楼差不多都在同一时间上市，人们担心地产业会出现供应过剩的情况。截至3月底，东京市中心5个区的写字楼闲置率已高达8.18%。Otsuki说，业主收取的租金已不像原先那么高了。总的来说，租金在下降。
其他一些人认为宏观经济形势不景气给这种建设热潮投下了阴影。Analytica Japan的主管、独立金融分析师斯蒂文?彻奇(Stephen Church)说， 问题是日本当前的名义国内生产总值陷入停滞，又存在著通货紧缩的问题。在此情况下，不一定能够找到租户。
他谈到了这样的担心：在有关租户的合并交易失败后，汐留中心城的大量用房将处于闲置状态。开发商三井不动产已表示，大部分用房已出租给该公司的一家关联公司。
房地产业的泡沫现象还反映出一些严重的经济扭曲现象，如过去5年的租金利息奇低等。
