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复苏形势虽好,策略仍需灵活

级别: 管理员
Textbook Investment Strategies May Not Address This Recovery

When the economy stalls and the stock market heads down, professional investors know just what to do -- they reach for their dog-eared guidebooks that map out the strategy for playing the economic cycles.

When things are bad, they buy defensive stocks, such as drug and food companies and utilities that are relatively immune to economic doldrums. When the cycle heats up, they switch to consumer companies and car makers, which benefit during boom times.

The problem now is that the current economic recovery and stock-market rebound are unusually hard to read -- resembling almost nothing in the guidebook. And many money managers and strategists are worried that the last third of 2003 could be disappointing for the stock market, even if the economy continues to strengthen.

"How are the next four months going to play out?" asks Barry Randall, who manages the First American Technology Fund. "I think there is plenty of reason for optimism about companies, there's just slightly less reason for optimism about the stocks because they've discounted a lot of the gains."

A look at the performance of the 10 sectors that make up the Dow Jones Total Market Index shows how this oddball recovery has played out and may give an indication of what to expect for the fall. The sectors are listed by market capitalization.

Financials: Banks have been living large during the past few years, feasting on mortgage refinancings and low interest rates while sidestepping the bad-debt problems that have plagued the sector during past downturns. Not surprisingly, financials, which usurped tech stocks as the market's biggest sector during the downturn, have performed well. The Dow Jones index of financial-company stocks is essentially flat over the past three years, a time when the market fell more than 30%. More recently, most financial stocks have lagged behind the market as higher interest rates worried investors.
ndeed, one of the few areas of agreement among investors is that so-called early-cycle stocks such as banks are likely to lag behind the market for the rest of the year. "I think we've seen the best we're going to see from that sector," says Jim Floyd, an analyst at Leuthold Group who studies industry sectors.

One area that might do well is securities brokers, which benefit from market rallies because trading volume and investment banking pick up.

Technology: Typically, tech stocks rise in the middle of the economic cycle, but there is nothing typical about tech stocks these days. The Nasdaq has soared nearly 63% since its October low, while valuations and growth expectations are far higher than any other sector. "They've already moved in anticipation of better days ahead so we have kind of trimmed back a little bit," says Mr. Floyd, who had tech as his biggest bet before the rally really took off.

The issue for tech stocks is not how much higher can they go, it is whether business will improve enough to justify the prices. "What has to happen is earnings have to come through in the third and fourth quarter and there's a reasonable chance they will," says Mr. Randall. On the positive side, tech stocks have rallied in November and December in six of the past eight years.

Consumer Cyclicals: These include car companies and appliance makers that typically soar when the economy turns and consumers gain confidence. The problem is that consumers, helped by low rates, never really stopped spending.

The consensus is that these stocks too could stall, especially if the recovery continues to be a jobless one. "Even though the economic cycle argues for them as well, you would be better off in other areas because they've already had their run," says Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer for Wells Capital Management.

The contrarian view is that consumer spending has picked up recently and that this Christmas could be a happy one for retailers, especially compared with last year's bleak season. "Sales growth is going to accelerate through the first quarter of next year," says Aram Rubinson, a retailing analyst at Banc of America Securities. He says some of the second-tier retailers could benefit from the rising tide.

Health Care: Shares of drug companies, hospitals and medical-supply companies will likely remain weak if the economy stays strong. But if the recovery stumbles, investors could flock to these stocks.

Richard Bernstein, Merrill Lynch's skeptical strategist, believes the recovery could be sluggish and thinks health-care stocks will do well. "They're not going to produce the revenue growth and the earnings growth they used to, but I think they will produce superior performance over the next 12 to 24 to 36 months," he says.

The anomaly in health care could be biotech stocks, which have soared this year as investors have become more willing to buy risky names. If the market remains strong, they could ride the speculative wave.

Industrials: Like technology stocks, companies that produce or ship the stuff you can drop on your foot typically rise as business demand picks up in the middle of an economic cycle. While the sector has done well this year, ranking third after technology and consumer cyclicals, manufacturers have suffered since the start of the Asian financial crisis in 1997. That is when pricing power evaporated and the strong dollar began to cut into sales. "At that moment, manufacturing in this country died and it has been dying ever since," Mr. Paulsen says. A strong economy could boost shares of some lesser-known industrial names.

Consumer, Noncyclical: People buy toothpaste even during the deepest recessions, so these stocks tend to do well when the economy is down. Like health-care stocks, these are unlikely to do well if things are good.

Energy: In a world where the ability to raise prices and pay dividends is rare and valued, energy companies are doing both, but getting little credit for it. With gasoline prices above $2 a gallon in some places, everyone knows energy companies are posting big profits. On a market-cap weighted basis, the energy stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index raised their earnings by 53.5% in the second quarter, more than double that of financials, the next best performing sector, according to International Strategy & Investment, a research firm. Yet energy stocks are up just over 10% on the year, making them the sixth-best performer among the 10 Dow Jones industry sectors for the year, as well as for the past three months.

"The reason energy is not working well in the short-term is investors do not believe that the price is sustainable," says Merrill's Mr. Bernstein. "Our story has been the price of energy stays high for longer than people think and that slowly but surely will attract capital."

Ultimately, energy bulls argue, that will boost energy stocks. Indeed, if the economy booms, energy should do well because demand will rise, as it does during a normal economic cycle. If the economy falters, investors could also flock to energy stocks because they are the ones with the strongest earnings.

Telecommunications: Phone companies, the market's weakest sector for the year, and maybe forever, will only do better when the industry itself turns things around. While a good economy might help a bit, a weak economy could be devastating to these already struggling companies.

Utilities: Despite a slight post-blackout bounce, utilities stocks had a lousy summer after soaring earlier in the year as investors flocked to big dividend payers. Utilities could do well if the blackout produces rate increases, but more likely investors will shun them unless the economy slows.

Basic Materials: After falling behind for much of the year, shares of mining companies, paper makers and chemical companies beat all but tech stocks during the summer, rising 10.7% over the past three months. These stocks tend to track energy stocks, rising late in an economic cycle when demand peaks.

The stocks have risen because supplies have been tight for some time, driving up commodity prices, which are only now being reflected in the stocks. A strong economy could further boost these stocks, though the sector is highly volatile and could crumble with weak economic news.
复苏形势虽好,策略仍需灵活

经济停滞不前、股市持续下挫的时候,专业投资者知道该怎么做--他们会拿起那本卷了角的投资指南,借助它规划出应对经济周期不同阶段的投资战略。

情况不好的时候,他们会买进诸如医药、食品、公用事业等受经济疲软影响较小的抗跌类股;一旦形势好转,经济复苏,他们便很快转入经济繁荣时期有利可图的消费和汽车类股。

现在的问题是,眼下的经济复苏和股市反弹让人感觉异常难懂,和指南中的几乎任何内容都对不上号。许多投资经理和策略师都担心,即便经济复苏步伐进一步加快,就股市而言,今年剩下的三分之一时间里情况可能还是会令人失望。

手中管理著First American Technology基金的Barry Randall不禁自问,今后4个月的情况会怎样?Randall认为,对公司前景态度乐观的人自有许多乐观的理由,而对股市抱持乐观态度理由就显得没那么充分了,因为目前的股市已经很大程度地反映了经济复苏的趋势。

眼下这种古怪难懂的经济复苏形势在构成道琼斯整体市场指数(Dow Jones Total Market Index)的10个类股的走势中有所体现,看一看这些类股的表现或许可以为预测股市今秋的前景提供一些线索。以下类股按市值大小排序。

--金融类股:得益于抵押再融资业务的红火和较低的利率水平,加上没有受到以往伴随经济低迷而来的坏帐问题的困扰,过去几年中银行业的日子一直过得很是不错。这样一来,在市值上取代科技类股而成为股市第一大类股的金融类股在经济低迷期一直有相对不错的表现也就不算奇怪了。道琼斯金融分类指数在过去三年中基本持平,同期股市大盘跌幅却超过了30%。最近,出于投资者对加息的担忧,大多数金融股的走势已开始滞后于大盘。

的确,投资者如今所能达成的少数几个共识之一就是,像银行类股这样的所谓周期先觉股年内走势可能会滞后于大盘。Leuthold Group的分析师吉姆?弗洛德(Jim Floyd)说,这类股票已经先于其他类股率先达到了高点。

不过,证券经纪商的股票也许会保持良好走势,因为股市上涨将带来交易量和投资银行业务的反弹。

--科技类股:通常,科技类股会在经济周期中期出现上涨,但这类股近来的表现却让人摸不著头脑。那斯达克指数自去年10月创下低点以来迄今已飙升了近63%,同时其市值和增长预期也远超过其他类股。弗洛德称,良好的前景预期已经在这类股票的股价中得到了体现,因而今后会略有回落。

科技类股的问题不是它们能涨多少,而是其业务的改善程度能否足以支撑其不断攀升的股价。从积极的方面来看,过去8年中,有6年科技类股在11和12月出现上扬。

--周期性消费类股:汽车制造商和家用电器生产商的股票皆属此类。这类股票通常随经济的好转和消费者信心的恢复而出现上扬。实际上,受到低利率的推动,消费者的支出从未真正停止过。

市场普遍认为,这类股票的涨势可能也会陷入停滞,尤其是如果随著经济的不断复苏失业率依然居高不下,这种情况发生的可能性就更大。Wells Capital Management的首席投资长吉姆?保尔森(Jim Paulsen)称,尽管经济形势对其有利,但人们选择其他类股会有更大的受益,因为消费品生产商的强势已过。

而相反的观点是,消费者支出最近有所反弹,今年的圣诞节销售可能会令零售商满意,尤其是和去年的低迷情况相比更是如此。美银证券(Banc of America Securities)的零售业分析师阿拉姆?鲁宾森(Aram Rubinson)称,销售的加速增长势头将持续至明年第一季度。他说,一些二级零售商有望从中获益。

--医疗保健类股:如果经济走势维持强劲,制药公司、医院及医疗设备供应商的股票可能会继续疲软。但如果复苏受挫,投资者又会纷纷涌向这类股票。

美林(Merrill Lynch)持怀疑观点的分析师里查德?伯恩斯坦(Richard Bernstein)认为,经济复苏的步伐会非常缓慢,因此医疗保健类股将有不俗表现。他表示,虽然医疗保健公司的收入及利润增长率不能与过去相提并论,但在今后12至24个月,甚至36个月内,该类股将有上佳表现。

医疗保健类股中表现反常的可能将是生物科技股,今年随著投资者对风险较大的股票兴趣增强,这类股票大幅飙升。如果市场继续走强的话,这类股可能会乘投机活动的浪潮而继续攀升。

--工业类股:与科技股类似,这类股票通常会随著经济周期中商业需求的增长而上扬。尽管此类股今年表现上佳,仅次于科技股及消费周期类股位居第三,但自从1997年亚洲金融危机开始以来,制造商就一直处于困境中,因为自那时起,制造商的定价能力就消失殆尽,而且坚挺的美元又侵蚀了这些公司的销售额。美国制造商从那时起就一蹶不振。预计良好的经济形势将会提振某些不太知名的工业企业的股票。

--非周期性消费类股:即使是在经济衰退最为严重的时期,人们也要买牙膏,因此,这类股票在经济滑坡时通常表现颇佳。与医疗保健类股一样,非周期性消费类股在经济形势良好时一般难有出色表现。

--能源类股:如今在涨价和支付股息成为稀罕物并备受珍惜的世界上,能源公司同时做到了这两点,但这并未给它们带来些许好处。在某些地方的汽油价格已超过每加仑2美元的情况下,谁都知道能源公司利润将颇为丰厚。根据研究公司International Strategy & Investment的报告,在市值加权的基础上,标准普尔500指数中能源类股第二季度利润增长了53.5%,这一增幅是金融类股增幅的2倍多。但能源类股较上年同期仅上涨了10%以上,是道琼斯指数10个行业分类指数中今年及过去3个月中涨幅排名第六的类股。

美林的伯恩斯坦认为,能源类股短期内表现不好的原因是投资者认为目前油价无法维持下去。但美林认为,能源价格居高不下的时间会比人们预期的更长,这样能源类股肯定就会吸引到投资,尽管可能会比较慢。

看好能源类股的人士辩称,最终这将提振能源类股。事实上,如果经济繁荣的话,能源类股应当表现良好,因为市场需求通常会相应增加。如果经济疲软的话,投资者也会纷纷涌向能源类股,因为这类股的收益状况最好。 --电信类股:电信公司股票是今年表现最差的股票,而且可能永远表现都会如此。只有在该行业自身扭转乾坤的情况下,这类股票的表现才有可能好转。尽管良好的经济形势或许会提供些许帮助,但如果经济疲软的话,对这些已经处于困境中的电信公司来说将是灾难性的。

--公用事业类股:尽管在大停电后略微出现反弹,公用事业类股今年夏天的表现仍是异常糟糕,而今年早些时候由于投资者纷纷买进派息较高的公司的股票,此类股曾出现飙升。如果停电会导致电价上调的话,公用事业类股可能会有良好的表现,但除非经济增长放慢,否则投资者更有可能会避开这类股票。 --基础材料类股:在今年大部分时间落后于其他类股之后,矿业公司、造纸公司及化工公司的股票今年夏天的表现超过了除科技股之外的所有股票,该类股在过去3个月中上涨了10.7%。这类股倾向于追随能源类股,随著需求增加在经济周期的晚期走高。

此类股之所以出现上扬是因为一段时间以来供应紧张,导致商品价格上涨,而这一点直到现在才在这类股的股价中体现出来。强劲的经济会进一步推动这类股票走高,但这类股的波动性很大,并可能因为不利的经济消息而下跌。
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