Debt-Market Sales Highlight Weight of Asia's Central Banks
Debt markets were rattled last week by unverified news reports that central banks in Asia and Europe were selling the debt of U.S. housing-finance companies Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
Those worries likely were overdone, but the scare serves to illustrate the increasing importance of foreign buyers to U.S. debt markets. Asian central banks, in particular, are major players. Their massive purchases of U.S. Treasury and agency debt help keep interest rates low for U.S. consumers and provide a cheap source of funding for the government and agency borrowers.
That's why even the thought that central banks might be reversing their purchases of billions of dollars of U.S. debt during recent months was enough to send prices down. Last week, the difference between the yield on 10-year Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac notes and the 10-year U.S. Treasury note increased by about a quarter of a percentage point. Yields rise as prices fall.
Central banks likely didn't cause that slide, and they probably are mostly indifferent to it, as their main concern is stability, not profit. Central banks don't buy Treasury and agency debt hoping to make a killing; they buy because they want a safe investment for the dollars they hold. Even with the recent market turmoil, U.S. government and agency debt is safer than any alternative.
Data from the Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank, suggest that some foreign institutions were selling some of their holdings last week. Foreign institutions held $183 billion of U.S. agency debt last week, down from a peak of $186 billion July 3. The story is similar for Treasury bonds and notes. But the drop is tiny compared with how much foreigners, especially in Asia, have been buying since the dollar started sliding last year. Asian central banks hold about $1 trillion in Treasurys alone.
Asia's massive exports to the U.S. are paid for in dollars, which Asian central banks then park in U.S. Treasury bonds and, increasingly, bonds sold by government-related agencies.
As the dollar weakened during the past year or so, Asian central banks sold their own currencies for dollars to keep their currencies from strengthening and cutting into export profits. Those currency interventions have led to even more buying of U.S. debt by Asian central banks, as they have landed with more dollars to invest.
But with the dollar's relative stability during the past six weeks or so, Asian central banks have had less of a need to intervene in currency markets, and therefore they have had fewer dollars to invest in U.S. debt markets. In May, as Asian central banks engaged in heated currency interventions to stem the sliding dollar, Asian investors took 31% of a $4 billion offering of five-year notes from Fannie Mae. But in the most recent five-year issue, two weeks ago, Asians bought just 13% of a $4 billion offer.
Those results don't mean Asian central banks have turned against U.S. debt, just that they have had less of a need to invest. "In that kind of environment, Asian central banks need to buy much less" of the U.S. dollar to support their currencies, says James Malcolm, foreign-exchange strategist at J.P. Morgan in Singapore. "That will be reflected in a dropoff in [U.S. debt] purchases."
As for actual selling by Asian central banks, Mr. Malcolm says his bank has "seen very little, even of talk, of agency selling from Asian central banks."
His comments are echoed by Deborah Ho , who works with Asian central banks as head of client-relationship management for Asia at UBS. She says that while the bank has seen some selling of agency debt by Asian central banks during recent weeks, it hasn't been on a very large scale. She says Asian central banks aren't likely to be too concerned with day-to-day market moves. "As long as they believe that they will get their money back, there doesn't seem to be a great worry right now for them," she says.
There is little evidence that the Europeans are selling en masse either. The German central bank, one of the largest holders of reserves in Europe, said it hasn't changed its investment strategy, quashing rumors of a new policy by central banks to sell U.S. agency debt for the euro. The Spanish central bank also says it hasn't been selling.
The European Central Bank, which oversees the euro-zone economies, refuses to comment on its market activities. But one official at the ECB did say speculation about European sales might originate from confusion surrounding the change in an arcane rule covering the way the ECB lends money. Under the change, the ECB will consider "agency securities" as slightly riskier assets than government bonds when the ECB takes them as collateral for loans.
Financial markets interpreted "agency" to refer to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae bonds, but the ECB never has accepted those companies' debt paper as collateral for loans.
If currency markets remain stable over the longer term, Asian central banks might decide it isn't in their interest to hold such a large slice of U.S. debt. For one thing, the sheer size of their holdings makes it difficult for them to react to changing market conditions. Asians, including nonbank investors, held 22% of Freddie Mac's five- and 10-year reference notes as of June 30.
Selling any significant part of those holdings would push prices down so much that any gains from the sales likely would be wiped out by the losses on the holdings they kept. "They're basically stuck," says Mr. Malcolm of J.P. Morgan. "They can't really sell."
But that doesn't mean they can't consider the idea. "There has been a discussion by some in terms of whether indeed the U.S. dollar needs to be such a large component of reserves, and whether they should be in other currencies," says Ms. Ho of UBS.
Should Asian central banks decide to alter their strategy, it's likely that any shift in their holdings would be made over an extended period, with an eye toward the least possible market disruption. A panic sale would be in no one's interest.
"It's a community of fate," Mr. Malcolm says. "They're unlikely to be moving quickly."
亚洲央行撼动美国债市
债券市场上周出现动荡，原因是有未经证实的消息称，欧洲央行及亚洲各央行正在抛售美国房屋融资公司联邦住房贷款抵押公司(Federal Home Loan Mortage Corporation, Freddie Mac)和联邦国民抵押贷款协会(Fannie Mae, FNM, 简称：房利美)的债券。
这种担忧可能有些过分了，但它同时也体现出外国买家对美国债券市场的重要性在不断增加。尤其是亚洲各央行更是主要的参与者。他们大量购买美国国债和政府机构债券，使得美国利率水平得以维持在低位，并为美国政府和机构借款人提供了低廉的融资渠道。
这就可以解释，为什么央行可能抛出近几个月来购买的数十亿美元美国债券的想法也使得债券价格下跌。上周，10年期房利美和Freddie Mac债券与10年期美国国债的收益率之差增加了约0.25%。
这种下滑局面可能并不是各央行造成的，他们更多是持一种置之度外的态度。他们最为关心的是稳定性，而不是利润。央行并不指望从购买美国国债和政府机构债券中获取巨额利润；他们买进这些债券是为了给持有的美元寻找一个安全的投资途径。尽管近期市场动荡，但美国国债和政府机构债券仍要比其他投资品种安全。
来自美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)的数据表明，上周部分外国机构在抛售所持的美国债券。外国机构上周持有1,830亿美元的美国政府机构债券，低于7月3日高峰时的1,860亿美元。美国国债的情况也基本类似。但与去年美元开始走低以来一直买进的包括亚洲在内的大量外国买家相比，这种减少幅度微不足道。亚洲各央行持有约1万亿美元的美国国债。
亚洲通过对美国的巨额出口获得了美元，亚洲各国央行随之将美元用于购买美国国债，并不断增加购买美国机构债券的数量。
随著美元在过去一年左右的时间里不断走软，亚洲各央行卖出本币，买进美元，以阻止本地货币走强，使之不会削弱出口利润。这种货币干预措施进一步增加了这些央行购买美国债券的数量，原因是他们有更多的美元需要投资。 但由于美元在过去6周里比较稳定，亚洲各央行干预汇市的必要性降低，因此可用于投资美国债券市场的美元也随之减少。5月份时，这些央行不断干预汇市，以阻止美元下跌，亚洲投资者也购买了房利美发行的40亿美元5年期债券中的31%。但在两周前发行的最新一期5年期债券中，亚洲投资者只购买了40亿美元中的13%。
这一结果并不意味著亚洲各央行开始远离美国债券，而是因为投资的需求降低。JP摩根(J.P. Morgan)驻新加坡外汇策略师詹姆士?马尔科姆(James Malcolm)说，在当前环境下，亚洲国家的央行无需买入大量美元以支撑本币。这可以从其美国债券购买量的下降上反映出来。 马尔科姆说，至于亚洲各国央行的实际卖盘，JP摩根注意到他们并未大量抛出政府机构债券，甚至只是停留在口头上。
瑞士银行(UBS)亚洲客户关系管理负责人Deborah Ho也持类似观点。她说，尽管瑞士银行发现近几周部分亚洲央行抛售了一些政府机构债券，但规模不大。亚洲各央行并不十分关心每日的市场走势，只要他们认为能够收回资金，对目前的走势就不会特别担心。
几乎没有证据显示，欧洲央行也在同时抛售美国债券。德国央行是持有美国国债数量最大的央行之一，该行称，并未改变其投资策略，这否认了有关德国央行将采取新政策，卖出美国政府机构债券，买入欧元债券的传言。西班牙央行也表示，该行没有卖出美国债券。
欧洲央行(European Central Bank)对其市场行为不予置评。但欧洲央行的一位官员表示，有关欧洲各国央行抛售美国债券的传言可能起源于对欧洲央行贷款方式进行改变的困惑。根据这一变动，在将机构债券作为贷款抵押品时，欧洲央行将认为机构债券的风险略高于国债。
金融市场用"机构债券"代指Freddie Mac和房利美的债券，但欧洲央行不接受将这些公司的债券作为贷款抵押品。
如果外汇市场能在中长期保持稳定，亚洲各央行可能会认为，持有大量美国债券不符合其利益。他们持有的大量债券使之难以对市场状况的变化作出反应。截至6月30日，包括非银行投资者在内的亚洲各国共持有Freddie Mac 5年期和10年期参考债券的22%。
大量抛售所持债券将导致价格大幅下挫，因此从抛售中获取的收入也会为继续持有部分价格的下挫而抵消。JP摩根的马尔科姆说，实际上，他们无法抛售。
但这并不意味著，他们不会考虑这种想法。瑞士银行的Deborah Ho说，其中部分央行一直在讨论美元是否有必要在外汇储备中占如此大的比例，是否应该持有其他币种。
如果亚洲各央行决定改变其策略，其所持头寸的改变也会在相对较长的时间内完成，以免破坏市场的稳定。恐慌性抛售不符合任何一方的利益。 马尔科姆说，大家已经成为一个命运共同体，不会出现大起大落。
