Spending by Corporations May Give Economy a Jolt
Though wary from rallies that never materialized and economic bright spots that quickly faded, economists are beginning to feel more confident: They have raised expectations for third-quarter growth, and say a rebound in corporate profits should prompt companies to finally boost capital spending and investment.
"All through the downturn I've felt that all that we have seen are false starts. But for the first time, I have to say, I think we're headed into the real thing," said Allen Sinai , chief global economist at Decision Economics in New York.
The average forecast of the 54 economists who participated in The Wall Street Journal Online's economic survey this month put growth for the current quarter at an inflation-adjusted annualized rate of 3.6%, up from the 3.5% average forecast in a survey conducted in June. Expectations for an acceleration in growth late this year and early next year were unchanged.
In the second quarter, gross domestic product - the broadest measure of economic activity - grew at an annual rate of just 2.4%, according to the Commerce Department's initial reading on the quarter, released last week.
Economic optimism is out of fashion in these cautious days -- and predictions of a recovery have been wrong many times before -- but economists point to undeniable signs that some segments of the economy are at least gaining a toehold: The rebound in consumer spending during the second quarter appears to be carrying over into the current quarter; auto sales ballooned to an annualized selling rate of 17.3 million vehicles in July, stronger than the 16.1 million rate for the first half of the year; and orders to manufacturers are holding at strong levels, suggesting that the rise in demand in the second quarter was more than a temporary spike.
But each of those things has been an ingredient of previous false starts, economists noted. The secret weapon this time: corporate profits, which appear to be solidly on the rise. The 1,336 companies included in the Dow Jones Total Market Index that had posted second-quarter earnings as of Wednesday reported combined net income of $115.87 billion, up from $74.12 billion a year earlier.
An overwhelming 92% of economists in the survey said they believe the rise in profits will prompt companies to boost capital spending and investment in the next six months. Such investment will be key to sustaining a meaningful recovery. But while the improved outlook should give hope to unemployed workers, economists caution that companies will be reluctant to expand payrolls for some time.
"Companies will wait until the last moment to rehire workers," said Stephen Gallagher, chief U.S. economist at Société Générale. "They're taking on temporary employees now to deal with increased demand, and will keep doing that. But they won't commit to hiring permanent employees until there is no doubt that the recovery will be sustained."
What is more, companies have been able to deliver rising profits in part due to the stunning productivity gains that have come from keeping payrolls extremely lean as demand improves. Productivity grew at an annual rate of 5.7% in the second quarter, significantly faster than the increase many economists were expecting.
"At some point, the pickup in demand will be strong enough that firms will need to hire back more workers, and not just buy more machines," noted David W. Berson, chief economist at Fannie Mae in Washington. "We're not there yet."
Economists nudged up their forecasts for unemployment, expecting a rate of 6.2% in November. That would match the current unemployment rate, and is 0.5 point above the level forecast in a survey conducted last December. They expect the rate to decline to 6% in May 2004.
Most economists surveyed weren't worried about rising bond yields, and said the rise was normal and signals the improving outlook for growth. Forecasts for bond yields jumped, with economists now expecting the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to be at 4.39% in December, about even with its current level. In the June survey, economists put the year-end yield at just 3.85%. Since then, a sharp drop in the bond market has lifted yields by about 1.25 points.
Nearly 30% said the rise in bond yields is due to the Federal Reserve's mishandling of monetary policy.
"The Fed has simply been too aggressive, and has engaged in what I would label irrationally exuberant monetary policy," said David L. Littmann, chief economist at Comerica in Detroit. He said Fed policy makers have put themselves in an awkward position going into an election year, when there will be pressure to maximize economic growth. That could make it harder for the Fed to walk rates higher. Still, Mr. Littmann doesn't see the rising bond yields as anything to be concerned about. "It's a solid indicator of growth ahead," he said.
Economists expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady this year, and raise its target for the federal-funds rate above 1.25% by June 2004.
Economists will be closely watching the Fed's meeting Tuesday to see if the central bank will allow a glimmer of hope to seep into its ever-cautious assessment of the economy, said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Bank One.
"You can't help but be a little bit excited," she said. "We economists look at the last quarter, and look at what is coming down the pipeline, and we think that if this doesn't boost the economy, we're going to have to rewrite everything we know about economic theory."
经济学家认为真正的复苏即将到来
虽然对从未兑现的经济增长和那些转瞬即逝的经济亮点仍心存忌惮，经济学家的信心已经开始增强：他们上调了第三季度美国经济增长率预期，并表示公司利润复苏将推动资本支出及投资的增长。
Decision Economics驻纽约的首席全球经济学家艾伦?塞奈(Allen Sinai)称，在整个低迷时期，人们见到的所有经济复苏证据都证明是假象，但这次，可是真的呦。
参与本月《华尔街日报》网络版(Wall Street Journal Online)调查的54位经济学家预计，经通货膨胀调整后，第三季度经济增长折合成年率将为3.6%，高于6月份调查时预期的3.5%的水平。此外，他们还维持了对今年年末及明年年初经济增长将加速的预期。
根据美国商务部(Commerce Department)上周公布的数据，第二季度美国国内生产总值(GDP)折合成年率后仅增长2.4%。
尽管在谨慎气氛笼罩市场的日子里乐观主义显得颇不入流，而且以前对经济复苏的预期往往都被证明是错误的，但经济学家指出，某些经济领域确实已经出现不容置疑的增长迹象，至少是开始增长的迹象：第二季度消费者支出的反弹看来已经延续到了第三季度；7月份汽车销量折合成年率为1,730万辆，好于上半年折合成年率的1,610万辆；制造业订单状况强劲，表明第二季度出现的需求增长绝对不是昙花一现。
但经济学家指出，上述所有证据也都曾经是此前那些错误判断的根由。不过，这次的秘密武器是公司利润，这次公司利润出现了稳定增长。截至周三,道琼斯整体市场指数(Dow Jones Total Market Index)中1,336家成分公司都公布第二季度收益，它们共实现净利润1,158.7亿美元，高于上年同期的741.2亿美元。
接受调查的经济学家中有92%的人认为，利润增长将促使公司在未来6个月内增加资本支出及投资。这种投资对维持经济真正复苏至关重要。尽管增长前景改善应该会给失业者带来希望，但经济学家警告称，各公司短期内仍不愿扩大雇员规模。
Sociiti Ginirale首席美国经济学家斯蒂芬?伽利格(Stephen Gallagher)表示，公司将等到最后时刻才会重新开始雇佣雇员，它们现在雇佣临时工应对需求增长，并将继续这样作。在确定复苏能持续之前，这些公司不会雇佣正式雇员。
而且，公司利润得以增长部分也是源自生产率令人眩目的增长，这是得益于在需求增长的情况下维持最少的雇员人数。第二季度生产率增长折合成年率为5.7%，远远高于众多经济学家的预期。
联邦国民抵押贷款协会(Fannie Mae, 简称：房利美)驻华盛顿首席经济学家大卫?W?博森(David W. Berson)称，在需求增长足够强劲的情况下，公司必须雇佣更多雇员，而不仅仅是购买更多机器。现在美国还没有到这个程度。 经济学家微幅上调了失业率预期，预计11月失业率将达到6.2%。这与目前失业率水平相当，但较去年12月的预期高0.5个百分点。他们预计2004年5月失业率将降至6%。
大多数接受调查的经济学家对债券收益率走高并不担忧，他们表示，这很正常，可看作是经济增长前景改善的信号。他们对国债收益率的预期也有所上调，目前经济学家预计，12月时10年期国债收益率将为4.39%，与当前水平基本持平。而在6月份所作的调查中，经济学家预计12月时10年期国债收益率将仅为3.85%。在此次调查之后，债市大幅下挫使收益率上涨了大约1.25个百分点。
大约30%接受调查的经济学家表示，国债收益率上扬是由于美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)货币政策处理有误。Comerica驻底特律的首席经济学家大卫?L?利特曼(David L. Littmann)称，Fed有些过于激进。他认为，在进入总统大选年之前，Fed决策者已经将自己置身于一个尴尬的境地，大选年前对经济全速增长的压力极大。这令Fed试图加息也变得更加艰难。但利特曼并不认为债券收益率走高值得担心，他认为这是未来经济增长强劲的预示。
经济学家预计Fed将在今年剩余时段维持利率不变，并将在2004年6月将联邦基金利率上调至1.25%。
美一银行(Bank One)首席经济学家戴安?斯旺克(Diane Swonk)认为，经济学家将密切关注Fed下周二即将召开的会议，看它是否会在一贯谨慎的经济评论中提及经济增长的希望。
斯旺克称，经济学家评估了第二季度经济表现，并预计了未来经济前景，如果这些因素都不能推动美国经济增长，那所有人们已知的经济理论就都该重新改写了。
