China Warns of Risk In Mortgage Lending
Bank lending to this city's real-estate market is soaring to unprecedented levels, adding extra zip to China's red-hot economy. Now, it is also stoking new worries about an old problem: the health of the banking sector.
The list of those now officially concerned includes China's central bank. In a report, the nation's monetary authority said the accumulated value of property loans issued by Shanghai banks reached $29.32 billion during the first half. New bank credit issued to the property sector during the half reached $5.5 billion, a high that was a 55% jump from a year earlier.
Though more than half of the loans are locked up in personal home mortgages -- a business in China considered to be far safer than traditional corporate lending -- the central bank said the surge in property lending means the banks could face new risks if real-estate prices begin to fall, triggering defaults. Real-estate prices have risen steadily in the six or so years that mortgages have been offered in Shanghai , so it's far from clear how borrowers might perform if prices fall.
Banks in China bear far more of the country's mortgage risk than do those in more-developed markets. Refinancing is not widely available, which in a downturn will stick many individuals with loans they can no longer afford. And China has no Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac-type institution to which banks can sell mortgages and reduce their risk.
"It's too early to assert that personal house lending and mortgages have low risks," the central bank's Shanghai branch said in the report, excerpts of which were published in local media Monday. A spokeswoman for the central bank confirmed the outlines of the report, including the call for banks to step up credit checks, but declined to provide a full copy.
Another black eye is the last thing China's banks can afford. After decades of lending to rickety state-owned enterprises, China's banks are lumbering under a mountain of dud loans estimated by bank analysts to be valued at $500 billion.
Though the problem isn't new, some analysts believe a remedy is urgently needed. Goldman Sachs & Co., for instance, said in a recent report that China needs to write off at least $252 billion -- or 21% of annual gross domestic product -- in bad bank debt by the end of next year, if it hopes to avert a banking crisis.
For now, many analysts believe the chance of a full-blown banking crisis remains slim, thanks to Beijing's promise to support the banks. Yet recent trends in the property-lending business suggest the banks could be creating new problems, even as old ones remain unsolved.
Across China, property investment, much of it financed with bank loans, has soared. As housing prices rise, growing numbers of banks are opening the lending spigots even wider. That is raising concern that China's banks could take a huge new hit if real-estate prices eventually correct, as many property analysts fear they could during coming years.
The soaring volume of property loans raises another concern: China's banks may be using the new loans as a way to disguise old, nonperforming ones that they are unable to dispose of, some analysts and bankers believe. As part of its continuing overhaul efforts, Beijing requires the nation's banks to write off a certain percentage of their total loan portfolio each year. But by increasing the total volume of loans issued each year, banks are able to report a decline in the absolute volume of bad loans, analysts say.
Shanghai's banks are widely considered to be among the best in China, a factor that prompted Citigroup Inc. and HSBC Holdings PLC to buy small stakes in two of the city's biggest banks during recent years. Shanghai's banks also appear to be among the most susceptible to a property-market decline.
One sign of that: Growth in property lending in Shanghai was 27 percentage points faster than the rise in overall lending during the first half, according to the central-bank report. Indeed, property loans outstanding during the first half were valued at slightly less than the city's first-half economic output, which reached $34.1 billion.
During recent years, mortgage lending seemed a safe bet in Shanghai . By the end of June, 0.25% of all home mortgages held by Shanghai's banks were nonperforming, far less than the 2.99% rate for all property loans and an even-higher rate for other corporate loans, according to the central bank. Yet the quality of these mortgage loans hasn't faced a true test: a downturn in real-estate prices, the central bank said.
To prevent the market from tumbling, and banks from taking a fresh hit, what is required is a closer match between the incomes of Shanghai's 16 million residents and the rapidly growing cost of property. Home prices in the city, and across the country, are surging far faster than incomes." An overwhelming majority of the people in Shanghai cannot afford properties at today's prices," said Andy Xie, an economist with Morgan Stanley & Co. in Hong Kong, in a recent report.
上海银行的按揭贷款业务面临风险
投向上海房地产市场的银行贷款规模已经达到空前水平，这为蓬勃发展的中国经济注入新的活力，同时也引发了人们对一个老问题的新思考：银行业如何保持稳健？
包括中国央行在内的多家机构都公开表示过对此的担忧。中国央行在一份报告中称，今年上半年，上海各家银行发放的房地产贷款累计金额已达293.2亿美元，上半年投向房地产行业的新增贷款达到了55亿美元，较上年同期激增55%。
尽管一半以上的贷款属于个人住房按揭贷款，而此项业务在中国被认为远比传统的公司贷款业务安全，但央行表示，房地产贷款的激增意味著一旦房地产价格下降导致借款人违约，银行将面临新的风险。
中国央行上海分行在报告中称，目前断定个人住房贷款和按揭贷款业务的风险较低还为时尚早。这份报告的摘要周一刊登在中国当地的媒体上。央行的一位发言人证实了报告的大致提要，包括要求各家银行加强信贷审查的内容，但她拒绝提供报告全文。
中国的各家银行绝对无法承受新的打击。这些银行过去几十年一直将贷款投向风险较高的国有企业，堆积如山的不良贷款已经使它们在发展的道路上举步维艰。银行分析师预计中国银行业不良贷款的数额达到了5,000亿美元。
尽管这个问题由来已久，但一些分析师认为目前已经到了急需解决的时刻。比如，高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc., GS)就在近期的一份报告中指出，如果中国希望避免爆发银行业危机，必须在明年年底前至少冲销2,520亿美元的银行坏帐，这一金额相当于中国年国内生产总值(GDP)的21%。
目前，许多分析师仍然相信，中国爆发全面的银行业危机的可能性很小，原因是政府承诺对银行予以支持。但是，房地产贷款业务近期的发展态势表明，在许多老问题尚未解决的情况下，各家银行还在不断制造新的麻烦。
在中国，房地产投资不断高涨，其所需资金的很大一部分都来自银行贷款。随著房屋价格的上涨，越来越多的银行正在进一步扩大房地产贷款的规模。由此引发了人们的担忧。许多房地产分析师担心房地产价格在未来几年将回调，而一旦房地产价格最终调整，银行将面临新的沉重打击。
房地产贷款规模的迅速膨胀还引发了另外一个担心，一些分析师和银行家认为，中国的银行可能用新发放贷款的方式来掩盖旧的无法处置的不良贷款。作为一项长期的监管举措，中国央行要求国内银行每年冲销一定比例的贷款。但分析师称，通过逐年扩大贷款规模，各家银行可以降低其不良贷款比率的绝对数值。
上海的各家银行被普遍认为是经营状况最好的银行，花旗集团(Citigroup Inc., C)和汇丰控股(HSBC Holdings PLC, HBC)近年来因此收购了上海最大两家银行的小部分股份。但与此同时，上海的各家银行似乎也更难抵御房地产市场萎缩将带来的冲击。
其中的一个迹象是：根据央行的报告，今年上半年，上海市房地产贷款的增长幅度比全国贷款的整体增幅高出27个百分点。事实上，上海市上半年未清偿的贷款数额仅略低于该市同期的341亿美元经济产出。
近年来，上海各家银行认为发放按揭贷款是一项安全的业务。央行的报告显示，截至6月底，上海各家银行发放的按揭贷款总额中仅有0.25%属于不良贷款，远低于2.99%的房地产贷款的整体不良贷款比率，更低于其他种类公司贷款的不良贷款比率。但是，央行表示，这些按揭贷款的质量还没有经历真正的考验：房地产价格的下跌。
为避免市场出现动荡和银行业遭受新的打击，就必须使上海1,600万居民的收入水平与急速增长的房地产成本相适应。在上海乃至整个中国，房屋价格的上涨速度远远超出了居民收入的增长。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley, MWD)驻香港的经济学家谢国忠(Andy Xie)在近期的一份报告中称，上海市绝大多数居民无力承担目前的房屋售价。
