Why U.S. Manufacturing Won't Die
What role will U.S. manufacturing play in the national and global economies in the coming years? What jobs will be left for American workers?
It's more than an academic question for many company owners. Stan Donnelly, who owns Donnelly Custom Manufacturing Co. in Minnesota, is studying Mandarin in case he has to move his machines to China. Already, he buys molds from China to make his custom-designed plastic parts. To date, Mr. Donnelly has been able to keep production of those parts in the U.S. But as his customers increasingly demand lower prices, he wonders if he will one day need to move production to Asia as well.
Many experts believe that the pattern of past years will continue -- that low-skilled jobs making lower-value, mass-produced items will keep migrating to countries where labor is plentiful and cheap, while manufacturing in industrial nations, such as the U.S., Japan and Western Europe, will center on complex, value-added products and systems. Demand for more sophisticated luxury cars and ever-more elaborate communication systems will keep fueling highly automated machinery and processes. Many of those higher-margin, technology-intensive production will remain in the U.S., and should help keep jobs here becoming steadily better, safer and higher paid than in earlier generations.
Other jobs serving certain protected markets, like medical instruments that are carefully monitored and require collaboration between doctors, hospitals and producers, should also remain, as will those involved with making something big and bulky, like kitchen cabinets that are costly to ship, or perishable items like frozen food and bread.
"There's not enough boats in the world to bring all that Americans want into the U.S.," says W.R. Timken Jr., chairman of the century-old maker of bearings as small as marbles or big enough for a person to walk through. His company has operations all over the world, but still needs plants in the U.S. to make bearings for cars, trucks, helicopters and X-ray machines made here.
Demand will also escalate for basic goods like washing machines, cars and telephones in parts of the world where many people have never had them before. That will keep global assembly lines humming, as well as fueling demand for ever-more automated systems to operate them more efficiently
In short, demand for manufacturing will remain robust for both the developed and developing world, concluded a two-year study by the Manufacturers Alliance, a public policy and business research group in Arlington, Va. "Every industry has certain pieces of manufacturing that will shift abroad, but also pieces that will remain in the U.S. because they embody high technology within that product," says Daniel Meckstroth, chief economist with the Manufacturers Alliance. "Over time it will evolve."
That isn't to say higher-skilled jobs won't also move overseas eventually. Already work forces in some developing nations are upgrading their skills and winning contracts to produce higher-end products. At the same time, the wage gap will continue to narrow as workers in developing nations grow more prosperous and develop a taste for a better standard of living.
So, what is likely to pull manufacturing overseas in coming decades? Cheap and available energy. Signs of such a trend are already here: Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. is building a smelter in Iceland because of cheap hydroelectric power. The same plentiful power has attracted interest from Russian Aluminum and Alcan.
What will ensure U.S. manufacturing's future is innovation, just as it has in the past. A sheet of glass made by Pittsburgh-based PPG Industries Inc. is now self-cleaning, its coating breaks down and loosens organic dirt, which means less work for cleaning-averse consumers. The average car contains between 200 and 300 types of steel designed to be lighter for better fuel efficiency, yet strong enough to protect a passenger. In a decade, there will be yet more composite materials.
Beyond automobiles, even clothes and computers will be increasingly customized. It will require tremendous flexibility to innovate and get a product to the market quickly, as well as to integrate new technology and processes.
The U.S. will undoubtedly continue to lose jobs in areas like textiles, where both labor and materials are plentiful overseas. But positions in computer and mathematical occupations are expected to increase 29% in the coming decade.
Other hot jobs are expected to focus on industrial automation equipment, such as robotics. The U.S. Department of Labor projects that those jobs will grow faster than the economy as a whole and, in particular, even exceed growth in manufacturing. Toys and sporting goods, drugs, garden machinery, motor vehicles, metal coating and screw machine products, bolts and rivets industries are all in the top 25% manufacturing industries for both productivity growth and job growth, the Labor Department says.
In fact, U.S. manufacturers are increasingly worried about a serious projected shortage in skilled machinists and other factory workers.
That kind of demand will continue to make blue-collar life not only better, but also more critical to the health of the nation's economy. As Mr. Donnelly, the owner of the small Minnesota manufacturer, notes, a brilliant idea is worthless unless it can be made into something tangible and distributed. "That is what drives the economy and wealth of a society," he says.
美国制造业将继续保持强劲
今后美国制造业公司在美国和全球经济中将会扮演什么角色？什么样的就业职位会留给美国工人？
对许多公司业主而言这已经超越了学术问题的范畴。斯坦?多恩利(Stan Donnelly)正在学习中文，以便在他的企业Donnelly Custom Manufacturing Co.不得不把机器设备转移至中国时派上用场。他已经从中国购买了模具，用以生产客户定制的塑料部件。到目前为止，多恩利还能够在美国维持这些部件的生产。但是他的客户不断要求更低的价格，他不知道是否有一天需要把生产部门也转移至亚洲。
许多专家相信，这一存在多年的形式还将继续存在下去，即生产大批量低附加值产品的低技术职位将持续转移至劳动力丰富且便宜的国家，而美国、日本和西欧等工业国家的制造业将集中在复杂的高附加值产品和系统上。市场对更加复杂的豪华汽车及更加精密的通信设备的需求将继续推动自动化程度高的机械和加工工艺的发展。许多这样的高利润率和技术密集型的生产仍将留在美国，而且应该令这些职位逐步变得比以前更好、更安全且薪水更高。
服务于某些受保护市场的其他职位也应该会保留下来，比如医疗仪器的生产受到严格的控制，并且需要得到医生、医院和制造商之间的密切协作；此外一些产品体积庞大、笨重、运输成本高（如橱柜），或者容易腐烂变质（如冷冻食品和面包），涉及生产这些产品的联位也会保留下来。
一家有百年历史的轴承制造商的董事长小蒂姆?肯(W.R. Timken Jr.)说，世界上没有那么多船能够将美国人需要的所有东西都运到美国；他所在的公司生产的轴承小的只有弹球大，大的可容一人走过。他的公司业务遍及全球，但仍需要在美国设立工厂，为此间生产的汽车、卡车、直升飞机和X光机等提供轴承。
世界部分地区对洗衣机、汽车和电话等基本商品的需求也将逐步增加，这些地区的许多人从来没有用过这些东西。这种需求将令全球生产线保持繁忙，而为了使生产线运行效率更高，也会刺激对自动化程度更高的系统的需求。
简而言之，发达国家和发展中国家的制造业需求都将保持强劲，这是制造商联盟(Manufacturers Alliance)为期两年研究得出的结论，该联盟是弗吉尼亚州阿灵顿的一个公共政策和企业研究团体。联盟的首席经济师丹尼尔?麦克斯特斯(Daniel Meckstroth)指出，每个行业都存在将转移至海外的制造业部分，也存在仍留在美国的部分，因为这部分所生产的产品含有高技术成份。他表示，随著时间的推移，这种状况也会发生变化。
这并不是说高技术含量的职位最终不会转移至海外。一些发展中国家的工人正在提高技术水平，赢得了生产高性能产品的合同。与此同时，工资差距将持续缩小，因为发展中国家的工人变得更加富裕，生活水平进一步提高。
那么未来数十年中会有什么因素促使制造业转移至海外呢？那就是价格低廉且易于获得的能源。这一趋势已在美国初露端倪：美国铝业(Alcoa Inc.)在冰岛修建了一个冶炼厂，因为当地的水电能源便宜。同样的丰富电力也吸引了俄罗斯铝业(Russian Aluminum)和阿尔坎铝业(Alcan)。
和过去一样，创新将使美国制造业保持光明的前景。目前PPG Industries Inc.制造的玻璃是自清洁的，其表面涂层可以分解，令有机脏物脱落，这种产品可以让那些不愿做清洁工作的消费者减少劳动量。目前，每辆车上平均使用200至300种钢材，这些钢材为了让汽车更省油而设计得更轻，但是强度又足以保护乘客安全。今后十年还会有更多复合材料出现。
在汽车甚至服装和电脑中，客户定制的程度都将提高。这需要在创新和令产品迅速投向市场方面具有极大的弹性，集成新技术和加工工艺也是如此。
美国无疑将失去纺织业等领域的工作，这些领域在海外无论是劳动力还是原材料都非常丰富。但是未来十年电脑和数学方面的职位将增加29%。
其他热门职位预计将集中在工业自动化设备，如机器人技术上。美国劳工部(U.S. Department of Labor)预计，这些领域的就业机会要比整个经济增长速度更快，尤其超过制造业的增长。劳工部称，玩具和运动品、药品、园艺机械、汽车、金属涂层和螺旋机器产品、生产锣钉和铆钉的行业是生产力和职位均将出现增长的行业，在制造业中占25%。
事实上，美国制造商越来越担心技术机械师和其他工厂工人出现预期严重短缺的问题。
这种需求不仅将继续令蓝领工人生活得更好，而且还会对美国经济健康发展起到更加关键的作用。前所提及的小型制造商业主多恩利指出，一个好的主意如果不切实运用在某个东西上并销售出去，则毫无价值。他表示，这就是经济的推动力，也是社会的财富。
