吓不倒的投资者

Sticking to Stocks in a Low-Return World

IT SAYS PLENTY ABOUT THE MARKET'S current imperturbable state that investors are okay with the idea that manufacturers continue to purge payrolls amid stagnant output, so long as Wall Street's agenda-setters can focus on signs of better times to come.

Despite the investment community's embrace of the Bush administration's market-friendly tax policies, Wall Street keeps singing the Clintonian refrain, "Don't stop thinking about tomorrow."

In a truncated week made less consequential by the departure of many vacationers, the market absorbed some poor-to-middling economic news and pushed higher on persistent buying by investors who see few good options besides stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 81 points, just under 1%, to reach 9070, while the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index rose a similar percentage, adding 9 to settle at 985. The Nasdaq extended its performance lead over the rest of the market, rising 38 points, or 2.3%, to hit 1663, helped by a 3% gain in Microsoft, its largest component.

Even before Thursday's job report showed the economy shed 30,000 jobs in June, and the unemployment rate climbed to 6.4% from 6.1%, the Institute for Supply Management Tuesday indicated that manufacturing activity contracted slightly last month.

But peeling away the bitter outer layers to get to the sweet stuff inside, analysts began stressing the positive trend in new orders and prices paid in the ISM data. And the fact that the number of hours worked remained steady, while the ranks of temporary workers rose, blunted the impact of the higher-than-expected unemployment rate, suggesting a stabilizing labor market.
Sure, 56,000 manufacturing positions were eliminated in June, but investors have been willing to overlook the smokestack sector as a fairly small and secularly shrinking part of the economy.

On cue, the ISM's nonmanufacturing index arrived later Thursday to show more strength than forecasters predicted in the services sector. Also fresh in mind was the Wall Street Journal's midyear economists survey, in which the same group that predicted the economy would grow twice as fast as it likely did in the first half forecast 3.5% real growth in the back half.

Without drawing too many conclusions from a lightly traded week, it was clear that investors' interest in buying stocks outlasted the end of the second quarter. Market-wide, investors seem to be concluding -- helped, no doubt, by their brokers -- that greater equity exposure is warranted in a low-return world.

The plausible argument that stocks are fairly expensive at 19 times 2003 forecast earnings (earnings that may or may not materialize as hoped) isn't likely to gain much traction when nearly everything looks at least as expensive. Ten-year Treasury yields below 3.7% look pricey to many, never mind money-market funds with negative inflation-adjusted yields. And everyone has a story about the crazy price just paid for some ramshackle house on his or her block.

As the analysts at BCA Research point out, investors are comparing five-year Treasuries at 2.49% and General Electric shares with a dividend yield of 2.66%-and-growing, and they're opting for the latter. Of course, plenty more investors are simply swapping cash for pure equity risk without such sober consideration, as the sizzling (and virtually yield-less) Nasdaq indicates.

Brokerage firms -- with great incentive to flush client money out of the money- market funds that are now unprofitable for both parties -- will no doubt take the opportunity of half-year account statements to keep this rotation in motion.

Without suggesting that was the motive, Merrill Lynch last week did its part by upgrading Microsoft to a "Buy" Tuesday -- the same day it began pounding the table for clients to buy Wal-Mart. When 14,000 brokers simultaneously start working the phones to sell two of the four biggest companies in the market, it can be effective. The thin market was receptive to the ideas, with each stock rising better than 2% on the day and helping to drive a 100-point advance in the Dow.

This is the sort of thing that can go on until investors are sated, buyers tire or some particularly unsettling corporate or economic shock approaches.

True, the S&P 500 so far has had trouble staying above the 1000 mark. And the indexes have looked more vulnerable to a retreat in recent weeks. As one hedge fund manager put it, "Next week is for grown-ups, when the rubber hits the road" as earnings season starts.

That's always a risk to a market floating on great expectations. But last week earnings warnings from the likes of Baxter International (again) and Seibel Systems led to stock declines ranging from slim to none.

As long as investors remain in the mood to give the economy the benefit of the doubt and look ever forward, the market easily could levitate until it becomes literally too late for the second-half numbers to turn out as projected.

WHEN DAIRY PRODUCER DEAN FOODS last week agreed to buy Horizon Organic, a maker of natural milk products, all the intuitive questions rang across Wall Street.

Is Dean Foods paying too much at $24 a share in cash, or 57 times expected 2003 earnings, for the 87% of Horizon it doesn't already own? Or, as some litigious Horizon shareholders contend, is Dean paying far too little? Will the organic cows be able to get along with other, hormone-enhanced cows? And, finally, would another company some day change its name to Holy Cow Industries to make proper use of Horizon's ticker symbol, HCOW?

In the estimation of the market, the financial questions can be answered in Dean's favor. Dean shares rose 2.18 to 32.78 on the week, to a new 52-week high, implying that investors feel the deal is a pretty good one for both companies involved. Horizon shares jumped 4.76 to 23.69, snuggling up close to the offer price.
The purchase price, certainly expensive at first look, can be justified by the 20% annual earnings growth rate now enjoyed by Horizon, say the Dean enthusiasts. Dean, the result of the earlier merger of the old Dean with Suiza Foods, says the deal will prove accretive to its earnings in the first full year after it closes late this year. Dean is forecast to earn $2.10 a share this year, up 16% from $1.81 in 2002, and earnings in 2004 are projected to grow another 11% to $2.33.

The fast-growing character of the organic foods industry enhances the appeal of this category, and the transaction fits nicely with Dean's strategy of shifting its business toward branded foods and away from commodity milk products. One investor in Dean says that any time the company can exploit its distribution network by finding additional products to place on its trucks, the profit impact is quite positive.

Another reason the market likes the $216 million deal (Dean will also assume $40 million of Horizon debt): It suggests Dean won't do a much bigger, riskier acquisition, a concern of some investors. The rating agencies maintained their favorable stance toward Dean after the news broke.

That makes Dean one of the relative few stocks clicking to new highs that has a fairly predictable earnings course, a strong bottom-line trend and a reasonable valuation of less than 16-times 2003 earnings. That valuation looks even more reasonable than it did a few months ago, given the broad market's recent run to a multiple of 19.

BOOKSTORES HAVE WHOLE SHELVES supporting the biographies of Warren Buffett. He is quoted almost as often as Ben Franklin. His company, Berkshire Hathaway, famously sports the highest share price on the New York Stock Exchange. Thousands of pilgrims make a weekend out of the Berkshire annual meeting -- in Omaha, no less.

Given all this, is it possible that Berkshire Hathaway could plausibly be called under-appreciated by Wall Street?

Oak Value Capital Management, a large and longtime shareholder of Berkshire, is indeed calling the stock unheralded, misunderstood and undervalued.

The investment team at Oak, a Durham, N.C., asset manager, has almost 11% of its client accounts in Berkshire shares, and underscores its devotion to Buffett's company by producing periodic reports on it. In its latest one, Oak contrasts the Berkshire of today with that of late 1998 to suggest that a far stronger Berkshire is available now at the same price it was fetching four and a half years ago.

Berkshire shares have risen less than 4% since the end of 1998, from 70,000 to a recent 72,600. That's a pretty good showing considering the S&P 500's 19% drop over that period. But the Oak folks contend that the near flat line of Berkshire shares belies a fortification of an already powerful financial machine.

For starters, Oak objects to the popular description of Berkshire as a holding company or conglomerate, insisting that it is a business based on reaping low-cost cash from dominant insurance businesses and redeploying it in higher-return assets. This activity is diminishing Berkshire's reliance on its big pubic stakes in Coca-Cola, Gillette and such, while raising its exposure to wholly owned companies and the growing reinsurance business.

Since the end of 1998, the "float" generated by the insurance operations -- this is the cash overseen and invested by Berkshire in excess of payouts on policies -- has grown by almost $20 billion. At the end of the first quarter, the float totaled $42.5 billion, real money even to a company with a $111 billion market value. This cash mountain has been accumulating at lower and lower cost, as measured by the insurance underwriting profit or loss.

Of course, the terrorist-related losses caused by the Sept. 11 attacks cost Berkshire some $2.2 billion, and Buffett has been critical of himself and colleagues for sloppiness in overseeing those risks. But after the fact, the turmoil in the reinsurance business has made Berkshire a much stronger competitor. It's the only reinsurer left with a triple-A credit rating and can be a price setter more than its peers can.

Other points made by Oak: From 1999 through 2002 Berkshire booked after-tax earnings of $10 billion, increased the cash and investments on the balance sheet by $6.2 billion, collected $6.9 billion in realized equity investment gains and paid $11.5 billion for operating companies.

And Oak calculates that Berkshire's return on investment for those operating companies has ranged from 9.4% for its stake in Mid-American Energy to 16% for the five home construction-related companies it has acquired. Notably, last year Berkshire had $3.3 billion in pretax profits from its noninsurance operating businesses, up from just $800 million in 1998. The company is far less a securities portfolio subject to Wall Street's whims than it used to be.

All well and good, a skeptic might respond. But there are decent explanations for why Berkshire shares have stagnated in recent years. Its annual increases in book value have dramatically lagged the company's 22% long-term average, world events have underscored the catastrophe risk of large insurers, concerns about Buffett's yet-to-be-chosen successor grow yearly and -- just maybe -- the stock was overvalued in 1998.

The Oak managers do address the succession question, saying they believe Buffett's death or incapacitation would cause a shock-driven drop in the share price, but a temporary one. The board's added focus on designating a successor or successors is a comfort, while the managers of the individual businesses would, of course, remain.

For their part, the Oak team thinks that institutional investors don't take the time to understand Berkshire and feel free to ignore it because it isn't part of their performance benchmarks, leading to a lower valuation than is deserved.
By their numbers, Berkshire could soon be trading at a price/earnings ratio equal to that of the S&P 500 based on 2003 or 2004 profit potential. That would be an extraordinary price for a company with Berkshire's financial heft and track record.

THE OTHER SIDE OF BUFFETT'S capital-allocation acumen is that the people selling what he's buying are frequently getting a sub-par price. Certainly, that's the way the shareholders of Clayton Homes have felt since the founding Clayton family agreed to sell the company to Berkshire in April for $12.50 a share.

As described here a few weeks ago, some investors were protesting that this is a lowball price, agreed to in a management panic, and one that fails to account for the rapidly improved outlook for the manufactured housing industry. At the time, Clayton shares had just begun trading above the $12.50 cash bid price, a sign that the market believed the deal could be struck down. The stock has remained above the bid since, and recently was at 12.84.

Last week, two more Clayton shareholders declared they would vote against the deal when shareholders meet on July 16. Third Avenue Management and Cliffwood Partners vowed to vote "No," joining Orbis Investment Management. Together, these investors own less than 7% of the shares. The Clayton family has pledged to vote its 30% stake for the deal, leaving a tough challenge for dissenters to win.

As noted here before, it's hard to believe an investor would vote for the deal to receive $12.50 when the stock could be sold for more than that in the market. The complicating factor, though, is that many speculators have acquired shares since the record date of June 2, so they effectively will have their shares voted by those who sold them the stock.

Michael Winer of Third Avenue Management says his firm owns Clayton shares at an average cost of around 10, so it would make a profit on the transaction. But still, he says the price is too low, effectively valuing the company based on cyclically depressed earnings.

Orbis has pointed out that a recent sale of manufactured-home park operator Chateau Communities would imply a value of $4 to $5 a share for the comparable unit of Clayton -- more than double the value placed on it by Clayton's investment bankers. Winer says he has spoken with both chief executive Kevin Clayton and Buffett himself, who stress the continued difficult industry conditions. Winer figures a renegotiation of terms is unlikely, and believes that Buffett would simply walk away if the deal gets voted down.

That would deprive Berkshire shareholders of one advantageous investment. But based on the surging values of other manufactured-housing stocks, it could make winners of those investors who have been paying more than $12.50 for the stock every day.

IN LAST WEEK'S COLUMN, The American Association of Individual Investor survey was reported to have shown 89% bullish responses. In fact, it was the ratio of bulls to those investors expressing a bullish or bearish opinion that came to 89%. When the "neutral" responses are included, the bullish percentage came to 71.4%, with 8.6% bears and 20% neutral. The 71.4% figure was the highest bullish reading since early 2000. The 89% bulls as a proportion of those expressing a market view was the highest such measure since September 2000.
吓不倒的投资者

只要华尔街人士依旧关注经济好转的种种迹象，投资者就能欣然接受制造业因产量低迷而继续裁员的观点。这也基本解释了造成股市目前波澜不惊现状的原因。

尽管投资业对布什政府有利股市的减税政策大表欢迎，但华尔街仍是念念不忘克林顿时代的警句："人无远虑，必有近忧"。

上周适逢美国独立日周年纪念，许多市场人士离场度假，交投时间缩短，因此无法合理判断大盘走势的内在原因。市场已消化了部分利空至中性的消息，股指因投资者不断买入股票而走高。目前，投资者缺乏除股票以外更好的投资选择。

道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数全周上涨81点，至9070点，涨幅不足1%；标准普尔500指数上涨9点，至985点，涨幅与上一周持平；那斯达克综合指数受其最大成份股微软公司(Microsoft)股价上涨3%推动，涨38点，至1663点，涨幅2.3%。

上周四就业报告公布前，美国供应管理学会(Institute for Supply Management, 简称ISM)即在周二指出，6月份的制造活动呈现小幅萎缩。报告显示，6月份的失业人数为3万人，失业率从5月份的6.1%攀升至6.4%。

但是排除令人不快的表明数据而关注令人欣慰的内在因素，分析师们开始强调ISM公布的6月份人新订单指数和价格指数出现回升势头。事实是，工作时数保持不变，而临时雇员人数增加，这纾缓了高于预期的失业率带来的冲击，表明就业市场仍较为稳定。 的确，制造业6月份的失业人数达到5.6万人，但投资者一直因制造业占经济总产值比重相对较小并且该比值长期以来呈下降趋势而有意忽略制造业。

上周四晚些时候公布的ISM非制造业指数显示，服务业的表现强于预期。另外，《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)年中对经济学家所作的最新调查显示，经济学家们预计下半年经济的增长速度将达到3.5%，是上半年预期经济增速的两倍。

虽然从全周清淡的交投无法得出过多的结论，但显然投资者在第二季度结束后，仍有意增持股票。整个市场中，投资者似乎认为，在投资品种收益率普遍较低的情况下，投资股票的收益相对有所保证。 虽然有人认为目前股价本益比已达到相对较高的19倍，但在几乎所有投资品种价格也都处于较高水平之际，这种看似矛盾的论点可能不会引起投资者的注意。10年期国债收益率现已低于3.7%，对许多投资者而言，这个价位已经偏高，更不用说货币市场上基金的实际收益率已因通货膨胀调整而变为负值。

正如BCA Research的分析师们所指出的，投资者对投资品种的收益率有所比较：例如，5年期国债的收益率为2.49%，而通用电气(General Electric Co.)的股息回报率为2.66%，且有增长趋势，因此他们倾向于选择后者。当然，更多的投资者只是简单地将手头现金换成股票，而并未经过如此冷静的考虑，这从那斯达克综合指数的一路走高中可以反映出来。

由于现在货币市场的基金品种对投资者和经纪行而言已都无利可图，所以经纪行有足够的动因将客户资金从货币市场撤出。毫无疑问，经纪行一定会利用各个公司披露中期业绩的机会把资金转向股市。

受这种动力推动，美林(Merrill Lynch)于上周二将微软的股票评级上调至买进，该公司还在同一天鼓励客户买进沃尔玛(Wal-Mart)股票。上周二1.4万名经纪人还同时开始通过电话向其客户推介微软和沃尔玛这两只市值位居前4名的股票，经纪人的努力可能会产生效果。交投清淡的股市认同了经纪人的观点，上述两家公司股价上周二涨幅均超过2%，并推动道琼斯指数上扬100点。

在投资者产生厌烦情绪、或某些特别令人不安的公司消息或经济报告来临之前，这类行为仍将持续一阵子。

的确标准普尔500指数突破1000点遭遇困难，而且该指数未来数周下调的几率更大。但正如一位对冲基金经理所言，随著收益公布季节的开始，股市下周还将一路上扬。

过高的预期总会伴生相应的风险。但是百特(Baxter International Inc., BAX)和Seibel Systems等公司上周发表的收益预警对大盘的影响却微乎其微。

只要投资者仍对现状举棋不定并对未来有所期望，大盘就会轻松上扬，直至最终数据证明下半年经济的真实状况。

奶制品生产商DEAN FOODS上周同意收购天然鲜奶生产商Horizon Organic股权时，华尔街随即产生了一连串本能的疑问。

Dean Foods为收购其未持有的Horizon 87%股权的出价是否过高？(要知道，每股24美元的现金收购价可是Horizon 2003年每股收益预期的57倍。)还是如Horizon某些股东所言，Dean的出价过低？那些喂养有机饲料的牛能否与喂养激素添加剂的牛和平共处？最后一个问题是，是否会有另外一家公司起名为Holy Cow Industries，以便更好地利用Horizon现在的股票代码HCOW。

市场预期方面，Dean股价的飙升已回答了所有问题。当周该股上涨2.18美元，至32.78美元，创下52周新高。这表明投资者认为，上述收购将使双方受益。Horizon股价也上涨4.76美元，升至23.69美元，接近Dean的收购出价。

支持Dean此次收购的人表示，乍一看，Dean的收购出价的确偏高，但考虑到Horizon目前每年20%的利润增幅，该价格处于合理水平。Dean则称，在今年晚些时候完成对Horizon的收购后，预计公司利润明年就将因此受益。
Dean目前预计其2003财政年度的每股收益为2.10美元，较2002财政年度的1.81美元增长16%。公司预计2004财政年度的每股收益可望较2003财年增长11%至2.33美元。

有机食品业快速增长的特点已增加了此类公司对投资者的吸引力，收购Horizon亦符合Dean将其主营业务从牛奶转向知名品牌的食品。Dean的一位投资者称，该公司能在任何时候通过寻找更多的产品来拓展其分销网络，这对公司收益将产生正面影响。

市场看好这项总额2.16亿美元交易的另一个原因是（Dean还将承担Horizon约4,000万美元的债务），这表明Dean不会从事规模更大、风险更高的收购活动。收购消息公布后，评级公司维持了对Dean的有利评级。

这使Dean成为少数创下新高的个股之一，这些个股收益前景明确、利润呈现强劲增长趋势，且与2003财政年度收益预期相比本益比不足16倍。鉴于大盘本益比最近已经升至19倍，Dean的股价较其数月更为合理。

美国各家书店都有整架的沃伦?巴菲特(Warren Buffet)传记。他的言论像本杰明?富兰克林(Ben Franklin)一样被频频引用。他名下的Berkshire Hathaway公司在纽约证交所的高额股价众所周知。前不久的一个周末，数千人蜂拥至公司总部所在地奥马哈参加年度股东大会。

凡此种种，难道华尔街还会认为Berkshire Hathaway是一家被低估的公司吗？

但确有这种情况，长期持有Berkshire股票的大股东Oak价值型资产管理公司就认为，投资者对该公司的股票了解不够，并且低估了它的价值。

这家位于新罕布什尔杜汉姆的投资公司将旗下管理的客户资金中的11%投资于Berkshire，而且它对这部分投资非常重视，定期发表有关该公司的投资报告。在最新一期报告中，Oak将Berkshire目前的表现与1998年末的情况作了对比，并称，这只与当年股价基本处在同一水平的股票有望进一步走强。

Berkshire股价自1998年底以来上升了不足4%，从70,000美元上升到72,600美元。

不过，考虑到同期标准普尔500指数下跌了19%，Berkshire的上述表现已相当不错。Oak的人士还认为，近期Berkshire股价接近水平线的走势掩盖了这家财大气粗的金融公司的实力。

对于初次接触Berkshire的人士，Oak不喜欢像一般人那样，将它简单地称为一家控股公司或者大财团，Oak执意将它形容为一家依托其占主导地位的保险业务、以低成本获取现金，并将现金投资于高回报资产的公司。这些经营活动加大了Berkshire对其全资公司和日益增长的再保险业务的投入，同时，也使其得以降低对它在可口可乐(Coca-Cola)、吉列(Gillette)等公司持有的大量公共股份的依赖性。

自1998年底以来，Berkshire保险业务产生的流动资金增加了将近200亿美元。今年第一季度末，这家市值为1,110亿美元的公司拿到的流动资金总额就达到了425亿美元。而从其保险承保业务的损益情况看，如此的巨额资金产生的成本却相当的低。

不过，"911"恐怖事件使Berkshire遭受了22亿美元的相关损失，巴菲特因此一直对他本人和他的属下在预见这方面的风险上有失审慎而多有责备。但在发生恐怖事件后，再保险业务蒸蒸日上，Berkshire的竞争实力也因此大大增强。它是唯一一家信贷评级为AAA的再保险公司，而且，在定价方面，它比同行公司有更高的权威。

Oak还指出，1999年至2002年，Berkshire共实现税前利润100亿美元，资产负债表上的现金和投资增长了62亿美元，兑现的股权投资利得达69亿美元，对经营性公司的投资为115亿美元。

其中，在Mid-American Energy的投资回报率为9.4%，在它收购的5家与住宅建筑有关的企业中的投资回报率为16%。

更值得一提的是，Berkshire去年非保险业务的税前利润达33亿美元，而1998年时仅为8亿美元。现在，Berkshire再也不是一家受华尔街股市的风吹草动所左右的股权投资公司了。

怀疑论者可能会说，这当然好，但是为什么Berkshire的股价近几年还是增长寥寥呢？对于这个问题的回答还是很充分的：该公司近年帐面价值的平均年增长率远低于其22%的长期平均增长率，一些全球性重大事件凸显了大型保险公司面临的巨大风险，外界对巴菲特尚未选定接班人的担心日甚一日－另外还有一个可能的因素是，该股1998年时的股价被高估了。

Oak的经理人也谈到了接班人问题。他们认为，巴菲特如果去世或丧失工作能力将导致Berkshire的股价因受到突然的打击而下挫，但这种下挫也将是暂时的。该公司董事会最近在甄选接班人的工作上投入了更多精力，这一点应令人感到欣慰，而该公司各项业务的管理人员将维持不动。

Oak的人士认为，机构投资者大多数都没有花时间来加深对Berkshire的理解，并且很容易忽视它，因为衡量他们工作表现的标准里并没有这方面的要求，这种情况导致Berkshire的股价比它应有的水平要低。

尽管上周新公布的失业率数字有所上升，但上周四的半天交易结束后，道琼斯指数仍上涨了81点。投资者对微软(Microsoft)的追捧推高了大盘。

预计Berkshire的本益比不久将达到标普500指数成份股公司根据2003、2004年收益预期计算的预期本益比水平。以Berkshire的财务实力和过往记录，这意味著其股价将达到一个相当可观的价位。

巴菲特分配资金的聪明之处还在于，投资者在抛出他所买入的股票时，往往只能获得低于市场价格的成交价。在克莱顿(Clayton)家族4月份同意以每股12.50的价格把Clayton Homes出售给Berkshire之后，Clayton Homes的股东就一直有这样的感觉。

正如几周前本文曾谈及的，部分投资者反对称，公司管理层匆忙达成的这一收购价格过于偏低，未能充分反映出组合屋行业前景迅速改善的事实。当时Clayton股价刚开始上升超过每股12.50美元的现金收购价位，表明市场相信此项收购将以失败告终。Clayton股价此后一直保持在这一价位之上，最新股价为12.84美元。

上周，又有两名Clayton股东表示，在7月16日举行的股东大会上将投票反对这项收购。Third Avenue Management和Cliffwood Partners加入了Orbis Investment Management的行列，宣称要对收购投反对票。这些股东总共拥有的股份数低于总数的7%。但占30%股权的Clayton家族已决定同意这项收购，因此反对方要想获胜可谓困难重重。

正如此前讨论过的，很难相信Clayton的投资者会接受每股12.50的收购价，因为该股如果在股市上交易将能卖出更好的价钱。然而，问题的复杂性在于，许多投机者是在6月2日登记日之后买入Clayton股票的，因此Clayton的命运实际上掌握在当时卖出股票的那些人手里。

Third Avenue Management的迈克尔?怀纳(Michael Winer)称，他的公司是以平均每股约10美元的价格买入Clayton股票的，因此能从这项收购中获益。但是，他仍然表示，收购价的确过低，它实际上是根据公司盈利周期的低点制定的。

Orbis指出，从最近组合屋营地运营商Chateau Communities的出售实例可以看出，Clayton相应部门的价格应为每股4美元至5美元，是Clayton的投资银行确定的价格的2倍多。怀纳称，他已经与Clayton首席执行长凯文?克莱顿(Kevin Clayton)及巴菲特本人都进行了会谈。怀纳认为，不太可能就收购条款重开谈判，他相信，如果收购被否决，巴菲特不过将一走了之。

而Berkshire的股东将因此失去一个上佳的投资机会，但随著其他组合屋运营商股价的不断上扬，那些以高于每股12.50美元的价格买入Clayton股票的投资者将成为赢家。

投资者涌入股市引发债市大幅震荡
Pendulum Swings From Bonds As Investors Embrace Stocks

In the past three weeks the bond market has taken a beating as investors from the U.S. to Europe and Japan have turned their backs on historically low yields and looked toward stocks in a bet that global economies will rebound.

The developing correction in bonds has long been predicted and has erased only about two months of gains for U.S. Treasury investors. But many experts say the nascent bond-market slump is likely to continue and, if bond prices fall hard enough, yields -- which move in the opposite direction -- may rise enough to threaten an economic recovery by curbing home-mortgage lending and making corporate borrowing costlier.
Bonds lose some of their value in good times because expanding economies usually are accompanied by inflation and higher interest rates, making other investments more attractive. With market watchers sensing a U.S. recovery in the making, bond investors are undergoing "a big sentiment shift," says William Hornbarger, fixed-income strategist at A.G. Edwards & Sons. After a long period of Treasury-bond gains capped with a furious rally since 2000, prices have started to slip. Since June 13, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note has fallen 4.2% and its yield has risen to 3.66% from a 45-year-low of 3.1%. In Thursday trading, ahead of the Fourth of July holiday, the 10-year yield rose from 3.54%, pushing the price lower by one point, or $10 per $1,000 face value, to 99 24/32.

The decline in major-economy bond markets reflects a growing, yet still tentative belief that the funkish global economy may be on the mend. On the other hand, some traders say major-economy bonds, after years of gains, simply had become too expensive and merely are backing away from unsustainable levels, rather than reflecting any real faith in an economic rebound.
Economic news remains uneven, especially in the U.S. Global investors believe the U.S. economy first must regain its footing before ailing economies in Europe and Japan can follow suit; thus its economic health is being closely tracked by investors holding richly priced bonds in Europe and Asia. Last week, the U.S. June jobs report showed unemployment had risen to a nine-year high of 6.4%. This led to a brief rally in bonds, but the move quickly reversed after another report showed signs of recovery in the nation's services sector.

Investors are clearly betting that "the worst is over" for the economy, said Brian Edmonds, managing director of U.S. Treasury trading at Banc of America Securities. For bondholders, signs of economic growth are unwelcome because they often lead to inflation, which hurts bond returns. Of course, bad news for bond investors is often good news for the stock market and workers, since economic growth brings corporate profits, capital spending and job growth.

Heavy Selling

The recent decline in bonds has garnered attention since it is occurring across all major developed economies. Some of the heaviest selling in bonds has come from Japan, where investors have moved money from U.S. Treasurys to Japanese stocks, which have enjoyed a rebound.

Bond prices have fallen sharply in Japan, but from extremely high levels. The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds soared from a record low 0.445% on June 12 to as high as 1.4% on Friday, before snapping a five-session streak of rising yields to close at 1.045%. An auction of Japanese bonds flopped Thursday, sparking a rush for the exits and putting pressure on the U.S. bond market.
"You've pulled the elastic band so much, it had to snap," said Richard Werner, an economist at Profit Research Center in Tokyo. Still, he said, "the fundamental economy is not recovering. So it's not yet the real big crash. The real big crash happens when the economy recovers."

Some fear a rise in Japanese yields could force more selling in the U.S. and Europe. Japanese banks are among the largest holders of U.S. Treasurys, and among the biggest holders of European government bonds. So if Japanese government bond losses start eating into the banks' already thin capital base, the banks could sell foreign bonds to bring the funds back home.

Ciaran O'Hagan, a fixed-income strategist at Lehman Brothers in London, said his firm figures Japanese investors have dumped about $10 billion of foreign (non-Japanese) bonds in each of the past two weeks, while hedge funds have unloaded a total of roughly $30 billion in that period.

"Because [the Japanese] are big buyers of Treasurys, when they sell, they primarily sell U.S. bonds," said John Butler, chief market strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in London. That also helps to explain why U.S. bonds have taken a bigger hit than their European counterparts.

In the U.S., while the employment report was worse than expected, investors are leaning toward the view that the economy, spurred by tax cuts and low short-term interest rates, will pick up in the second half even if companies delay hiring.

Indeed, some bond fund managers have been shifting out of Treasurys for weeks. Lee Thomas, a managing director at bond-fund firm Pacific Investment Management Co., wrote in a recently released letter to investors that the time had come to "sell bonds." Unless investors expect the U.S. to drop into a Japan-like swoon, "you cannot rationalize long-maturity bond yields where they are today," wrote Mr. Thomas, who also co-manages the Pimco Asset-Allocation Fund.

Jim Cusser, who manages about $1.5 billion in bond-fund assets at Waddell & Reed Financial Inc., said he sold about $7.5 million in Treasurys on Thursday and about $20 million to $30 million in the past three weeks. He has moved it to cash, in anticipation that yields could continue to climb.

Many investors will be stung if U.S. bond prices continue their descent. Individual investors have flocked to bonds during the bear market in stocks, putting about $12 into taxable bond funds for each dollar they have put into stock mutual funds since 2001, according to the Investment Company Institute, a mutual-fund trade group.

Increasing Skepticism

In the past few weeks, however, fund investors have started showing more skepticism that bonds could rally much more. In the week ended Wednesday, investors put only $397 million into taxable bond funds, down from $921 million the previous week and $2.4 billion the first week in June, according to fund tracker AMG Data Services. The stampede to bonds that started in the summer of 2000 "may be reversing," said Robert Adler, AMG's president.

Indeed, economists recently surveyed by The Wall Street Journal predict the 10-year Treasury would rise to about 3.85% at the end of the year. "As soon as there is a hint that the deflation story is not going to materialize, there's going to be a rush for the doors" to get out of bonds, said Donald H. Straszheim, an independent research analyst who distributed a piece last week titled "The Bubble in Treasuries."

Given the steep rise in Treasurys, some characterize the bond losses as a retracing of an unsustainable spring rally, rather than the beginning of a period of sharply rising rates. The U.S. Federal Reserve has indicated it will keep rates low until the threat of deflation, or falling prices, has passed.

"The term 'bubble' is not a good term" for the Treasury market, said Jack Malvey, chief global fixed-income strategist at Lehman Brothers. "To me, bubble means you can sustain an 80 or 90% loss," which Mr. Malvey said is an "impossible" scenario for U.S. Treasurys. He said investors in a bond bear market should expect losses in the range of 10%-20%, or a bit more for volatile zero-coupon bonds.

Investors last suffered sustained losses in Treasurys in 1994, when the Fed repeatedly boosted interest rates to slow down an economy heating up after the early-1990s recession. That year, the 30-year Treasury bond fell 12%, according to Bianco Research. Generally though, bond investors have enjoyed strong returns since 1981, when 10-year yields peaked above 15% and started a two-decade decline.

Speed Bump to Growth

If that secular trend changes, some fear rising bond yields will act as a speed bump to economic growth, further restricting an already slim amount of new corporate investment and growth. Higher borrowing costs are bad news for global economies fighting to stay out of recession. In the U.S., rising bond yields could also put a crimp in the surging market for consumer mortgage refinancing, which has helped keep the economy afloat.

In Japan, one of the biggest risks of rising bond yields is for the Japanese government itself. Low rates have financed Tokyo's profligate spending for years, allowing politicians to approve extravagant public projects without addressing the banking problems or other economic difficulties, leading to deflationary problems. Rising rates could quickly make Japan's huge national debt unsupportable, economists say.

A prolonged bear market in bonds would also have a major impact on hedge funds, which have been big investors in so-called carry strategies where they borrow at low short-term interest rates and invest in longer-maturity bonds at higher yields. The risk associated with playing that game in a more volatile environment may force many of the funds out of that trade.

European investors haven't been spared from the bond selloff, though the damage there looks less severe. In late trading Friday, 10-year German government bonds were yielding 3.92%, marginally down from the 3.93% late Thursday -- but significantly higher than the 3.70% they were yielding on June 24, a day before the U.S. Fed reduced its key federal-funds rate by a quarter percentage point instead of the half-point many had been expecting.

Despite the selloff, pessimism about economic growth remains strong in Europe, which could help bonds there recover. Indeed, some analysts anticipate the European Central Bank will cut short-term interest rates again, helping to push bonds higher -- and yields lower -- once more.

"The bull market for European bonds isn't over yet," said David Brown , chief European economist at Bear, Stearns & Co. in London. He predicts that 10-year German government bond yields could fall to 3.5%.

"But," Mr. Brown acknowledges, "in the long run, the investment baton will pass from bonds to stocks. As soon as we see recovery in the U.S., that will be the death knell for bonds."
投资者涌入股市引发债市大幅震荡

债券市场过去三周内遭受了重大打击。眼见著债市收益率屡创历史新低，美国、日本和欧洲各地的投资者纷纷撤出债市，在全球经济即将复苏的预期推动下转入股市。

债市当前的回调走势早在市场的预期之中。到目前为止，美国国债仅跌去了过去两个月的涨幅。许多专家认为，债市跌势刚刚起步，很可能会继续下去。一旦债券价格暴跌，与之呈反向走势的收益率就会激升，最终将损害到目前利率偏低的住房贷款和短期公司债券市场，进而威胁到经济复苏。

A.G. Edwards & Sons固定收益市场策略师威廉姆?洪巴格(William Hornbarger)认为，债市投资者人气正在经历一次大幅度的转变。美国国债价格自2000年以来大幅飙升，目前开始出现逆转。6月13日至今，美国基准10年期国债累计下跌了4.2%，收益率从45年最低点3.1%一路升至3.66%。上周四，10年期国债收益率从3.54%开始一路走高，国债价格下跌了整整一个点(即1,000美元面值的国债下跌了10美元)，至99 24/32。

欧、美、日等主要经济体债券市场近期纷纷回落，体现出人们对全球经济形势可能正在好转的信心逐渐增强。但，目前市场信心仍不坚定，随时可能动摇。鉴于过去几年债市升幅巨大，而当前还没有足够的迹象令债市投资者相信经济复苏已拉开序幕，进而促使他们弃债市转股市。实际上，一些交易员相信，欧、美、日等国债券价格下滑仅仅是前期涨幅过大而引发的回调，并非投资者信心（对经济复苏的信心）提振所致。 经济基本面的消息，尤其是来自美国的消息喜忧参半。全球投资者都认为，美国经济会率先复苏，欧、日经济紧随其后。所以，持有大量高价债券的欧亚投资者都在密切关注美国的经济发展状况。上周，美国6月份就业报告显示失业率升至6.4%的9年高点。消息一出，债市就出现了一轮上涨走势。但随即发布的另一份报告显示美国服务业有复苏迹象，债市价格又急转直下。

美银证券(Banc of America Securities)美国债券交易部门的董事总经理布莱恩?艾德蒙斯(Brian Edmonds)说，很显然，投资者相信经济最低迷的时期已经过去。任何经济增长的迹象对债券持有者而言都不是好消息，因为经济增长往往会引发通货膨胀，这将严重削弱债券的回报率。当然，债市的坏消息通常是股市和工薪阶层的福音，经济增长将为企业带来巨额利润，从而推动企业增加资本开支，增加就业机会。

债市遭遇巨额抛盘

近来，欧、美、日各国债市跌声四起，引起了广泛的关注。其中一些大额卖盘来自日本市场，随著日本股市近期反弹，投资者开始抛售美国国债，并将资金转入日本股市。

日本市场债券价格大幅下挫，但是从一个极高的价格开始下挫的。10年期日本国债收益率从6月12日的历史低点0.445%开始节节攀升，至上周五已升至1.4%的盘中高点，收盘时达到了1.045%，实现了连续5个交易日的上扬。上周四日本国债拍卖结果令人失望，这进一步加剧了日本债市的撤资浪潮，并给美国债市带来压力。

Profit Research Center驻东京的经济师理查德?维纳(Richard Werner)说，弹簧绷得太紧必然会拉断。他认为，经济基本面并未好转，所以目前还算不上是暴跌走势。只有经济真正复苏才会引发债市真正的暴跌行情。

一些人担心日本债市收益率走高会引发美国和欧洲债市的更多的抛盘。日本银行大量持有美国和欧洲各国国债，所以一旦日本国债价格下滑开始侵蚀日本银行本就薄弱的资本金，它们就会抛售外国国债来收回资金。

雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)驻伦敦的固定收益市场策略师查兰?奥黑根(Ciaran O'Hagan)表示，雷曼兄弟估计日本投资者在过去的两周内每周抛售了大约100亿美元的外国国债（即：非日本国债），而对冲基金在这两周内共抛售了大约300亿美元的外国国债。

Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein驻伦敦的首席市场策略师约翰?巴特勒(John Butler)说，日本投资者大量持有美国国债，所以他们一旦开始抛售，主要的抛售品种就是美国国债。这也是美国债市跌幅大于欧洲债市的原因之一。

美国最新发布的就业数据虽然弱于预期，但投资者仍然愿意相信，在减税和低利率的刺激下，即使企业推迟招聘员工，美国经济仍有望在下半年开始复苏。

实际上，一些债市基金经理人早在几周前就已经撤离美国国债了。Pacific Investment Management Co.债市基金部门的董事总经理李?托马斯(Lee Thomas)在最近发给投资者的信函中表示，抛售债券的时机已经到来。

在Waddell & Reed Financial Inc.管理著15亿美元债市基金资产的吉姆?卡索(Jim Cusser)透露，上周四一天他就抛售了大约750万美元的美国国债，过去三周内的抛售额度在2,000万-3,000万美元之间。他预计债市收益率还会进一步攀升。

美国国债价格持续下滑将使许多投资者蒙受巨额损失。股市低迷期间，散户投资者大量涌入债市。据Investment Company Institute统计，从2001年以来，投资者向股市共同基金每投入1美元，就会向应税债券基金投入12美元。

疑虑情绪有增无减

然而，过去几周来，基金投资者对债市能否持续上扬已经越来越感到怀疑了。AMG Data Services数据显示，截至上周三的一周内，投资者对应税债券基金的投入只有3.97亿美元，大大低于此前一周的9.21亿美元，和6月份第一周的24亿美元相比更是大为失色。AMG总裁罗伯特?阿德勒(Robert Adler)说，人们从2000年夏季开始纷纷涌入债市的势头可能正在逆转。

实际上，最近接受《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)调查的经济学家们预计，到今年年底，10年期美国国债收益率将升至3.85%左右。独立研究分析师唐纳德?H?斯特拉齐姆(Donald H. Straszheim)上周发出了一份标题为《美国国债泡沫》(The Bubble in Treasuries)的报告。他表示，一旦有迹象表明美国不会陷入通货紧缩，投资者就会纷纷从债市撤资。

尽管美国国债近期飙升，但仍有一些迹象表明最近的债市价格滑落是因为持续的大幅上扬走势难以为继，著利率上升周期的开始。美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)已经表示，在通货紧缩，或者说物价下降的危险解除之前将维持目前的低利率水平。

雷曼兄弟全球固定收益市场首席策略师杰克?麦维尔(Jack Malvey)说，用"泡沫"一词来形容债市并不合适。他认为，泡沫表示市场将蒙受80%，甚至90%的损失，而美国国债市场不可能出现这样的惨状。他认为，债市低迷时期投资者的损失幅度将在10%-20%之间，波动幅度较大的零票息债券的跌幅可能会稍微高一些。 上一次债市投资者蒙受巨额损失是在1994年。当时Fed连续加息，以减缓美国经济在摆脱了九十年底初期的衰退之后过于迅猛的增长。Bianco Research的数据显示，当年，30年期美国国债价格就下跌了12%。但总的来说，债市投资者从1981年以来获得了不错的回报。94年10年期美国国债收益率一度升至15%以上，此后就走上了长达20年的漫漫下滑之路。

经济增长将面临当头一棒

一些人担心，一旦这一长期下滑趋势出现逆转，债券收益率就会成为经济增长的"减速墩"，使本就十分微薄的企业新增投资和增长受到进一步遏制。拆借成本增加对于当前正在衰退路上苦苦挣扎的全球各国经济来说都是一个噩耗。在美国，债市收益率上扬会使蓬勃增长的消费者抵押贷款再融资遭受打击。再融资市场是近年来支持美国经济的重要支柱。 在日本，债券收益率上扬，政府承受的风险最大。多年来，低利率一直为日本政府不断扩张的财政开支提供资金，使政客们得以批准一项又一项巨额的公共项目，而不必触及银行体系的难题或其他经济方面的困境，正是这些难题和困境将日本经济推入了长期通货紧缩深渊。经济学家认为，利率上扬会使日本政府不堪巨额债务的负担。

债市长期低迷也会在给冲基金造成巨大冲击。对冲基金是所谓的结转交易的投资大户，这是一种以低利率借入某种货币，再投入高收益长期债券的投资策略。一旦经济出现动荡，与之相伴的高风险将会迫使许多对冲基金不再进行推出交易。 虽然损失似乎较小，但是欧洲的投资者仍然被卷入债市的抛售狂潮之中。上周五尾盘，10年期德国国债收益率升至3.92%，大大高于Fed降息前一天，即6月24日的3.70%。第二天Fed就宣布降息25个基点，而非许多市场人士预计的50个基点。

尽管抛售浪潮来势汹汹，人们对欧洲经济前景的悲观预期仍然占据主导地位，这可能会推动债市重拾升势。实际上，许多分析师都预计欧洲央行(European Central Bank, 简称ECB)将再次下调短期利率，推动债券价格再度上扬，收益率再度下滑。

贝尔斯登(Bear, Stearns & Co.)驻伦敦的首席欧洲经济师大卫?布朗(David Brown)说，欧洲债市的牛市尚未结束，他预计10年期德国国债收益率将降至3.5%。

然而，他也承认长期来看投资者仍然会从债市转向股市。他说，美国经济一旦开始复苏，就是为债市敲响了丧钟。

中国地产经历风雨将见彩虹

Chinese Developers Suffer Now, But Biggest Should See Revival

A high-level corruption scandal and a credit clampdown by China's central bank have delivered a one-two punch to highflying property developers, sending their share prices reeling and setting the stage for a painful industry consolidation. But once the pain subsides, their prospects -- and profits -- should revive.

For the past five weeks, share prices of listed property developers have been tumbling faster than the overall declines in China's stock markets. The composite indexes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, which measure Class A shares denominated in Chinese currency and hard-currency Class B shares, have slid 4% and 6%, respectively, since May 28. In the same period, analysts say, share prices of the 47 listed real-estate companies have lost even more altitude, with state-backed and private companies both taking hits. Shenzhen-listed China Vanke, for example, has lost 10% of its market value.

It's a reversal of fortune for an industry whose growth has helped energize the juggernaut Chinese economy and whose profits, analysts say, have been growing annually by 30% -- three times the average for all other industries. Investment in real estate soared 32.9% from a year earlier in the first five months of this year, among the highest investment rates in any part of the China's economy and a sign of the sector's allure.

"Nobody [else] makes money that easily," says Zhang Yu, a property analyst for Guotai Junan Securities in Shenzhen. "This is why everybody wants to get involved in the property business."

Triggering the sector's late-May downturn was an investigation into one of China's richest entrepreneurs, Zhou Zhengyi, whose sprawling holdings centered on real-estate development. The probe, which soon ensnared a senior state banking official, threw a spotlight on the cozy ties between developers and bankers that have pumped up what many say is a property bubble, especially for high-end housing. The People's Bank of China then took action, issuing a national circular in mid-June that ordered banks to tighten lending to both developers and home buyers.

The combined effects of market jitters over the investigations and central-bank rules have hurt property companies' share prices. So is now the time for investors to plunge back into real-estate-related stocks in search of bargains?

Most analysts say not quite yet. The central bank's strategy is a long-term one: laying a foundation for healthier property and banking sectors. That will take time to play out, analysts say, suggesting share prices mightn't have hit bottom.

"No matter whether they're private, state-owned or joint-venture developers, they have all survived on bank loans," says Mr. Zhang of Guotai Junan Securities. The industry needs "to adopt a healthier business model."

The upscale-housing boom, spurred by a government shift five years ago to private-home ownership and away from public housing, brought a flood of easy bank money into the sector. Banks flouted central-bank guidelines, lending to developers who hadn't raised the required 30% of a project's costs and issuing mortgages to prospective home buyers who couldn't put down a 20% deposit, according to analysts and industry executives. Also common was the practice of developers pre-selling houses and apartments, backed by mortgages, before the structures were built -- a practice that the June directive curtails by requiring developers to complete much of the building's outer structure before launching sales.

The result: As of April, Chinese banks' real-estate loans outstanding amounted to $222 billion, more than 17% of their total lending and exceeding a 15% ceiling the central bank suggests is the limit for lending to any one sector. The situation was reminiscent of that in Thailand before its economy foundered in the 1997 Asian financial crisis and of the chronic drag that too much high-priced real estate still has on Hong Kong.

"The lesson is, you've got to contain a bubble before it bursts," says Chris Leung, China economist for DBS Bank in Hong Kong.

Falling share prices are collateral damage in the government's effort. First to feel the real pinch of the credit crunch, analysts say, won't be the larger listed firms but smaller, mostly unlisted private real-estate developers that have few properties and other assets they can use to raise additional funds. Larger firms like Vanke or Shanghai-listed Cosco Development, analysts say, will see limited impact, beyond their share prices, because of their size and state-owned status and more varied development portfolios.

State banks, which dominate lending in China, traditionally favor state-owned companies and so are likely to choke off credit to private companies first. As those smaller private firms go into distress, their development rights to land they hold make them attractive acquisition targets for the larger developers such as Vanke or Cosco. "They'll be more than happy if 20% of the small developers die," says one Hong Kong-based analyst.

This survival of the fittest in the real-estate sector is expected to play out over the coming year or so, analysts say, and as it does, developers, who have to shoulder more of the financial burden under the new rules, are likely to reduce home prices to boost revenues. And with more buyers coming in, more development -- and bank lending -- should follow.

"Real estate is such a crucial part of the economy, and the government can't afford to slow economic development," says Sam Crispin , a Shanghai-based property consultant. "So the credit will flow again."
中国地产经历风雨将见彩虹

中国最近发生的一桩高层腐败丑闻和中国央行的信贷收缩政策给春风得意的地产开发商们连泼两飘冷水，地产类股价格遭受重创，地产行业也将因此进入一个痛苦的调整期。不过，一旦伤痛逝去，地产玩家们的未来将重见光明。

过去五周以来，地产类上市公司股价的跌幅大于中国股市大盘的跌幅。从5月28日起，上证综合指数和深圳综合指数分别下跌了4%和6%。而分析师说，同期47家房地产类股的跌幅更大，国有和私营房地产公司都未能幸免。以在深圳上市的万科企业股份有限公司(China Vanke Co. Ltd., Q.CVK)为例，这期间该股缩水10%。

真是此一时、彼一时。地产行业一直是中国经济实现稳步增长、令人刮目相看的最主要的推动力所在，据分析师提供的数据，该行业的年均利润增幅高达30%，是其他所有行业平均增幅的三倍。今年头5个月，房地产投资较上年同期增加了32.9%，是中国各经济领域中投资增幅最高的行业之一，地产业的吸引力由此可见一斑。

国泰君安(Guotai Junan Securities)驻深圳的房地产业分析师张宇(音译)说，没有任何行业像房地产业挣钱这么容易，所以人人都想踏足地产业淘金。

该行业从5月底开始的这场震荡的直接诱因是有关部门对上海地产大亨周正毅的调查。周正毅据称是中国最富有的企业家之一，在诸多领域都有投资，但以地产投资为主。对他的调查很快牵扯出国有银行的一位高层官员，地产开发商和银行界人士相互勾结的行为也因此受到人们的关注。许多人认为，正是这种不正当关系导致了中国地产市场的泡沫，尤其是在高档住宅市场。中国央行随后采取了行动，6月中旬该行向全国发出通知，要求各银行收紧对开发商和购房者的贷款。

周正毅调查案和央行的通知引发的市场震荡导致地产股纷纷跳水。

那么现在是否是投资者逢低买进地产业相关类股的恰当时机呢？多数分析师对此持否定态度。他们认为，央行的政策是一种长期战略，目的是要为地产业和银行业打下坚实可靠的基础。分析师们认为，实现这一目标尚须时日，这意味著地产类股的股价或许尚未触底。

国泰君安的张宇说，目前房地产企业不论私营、国有还是合资，都依赖银行贷款为生。地产行业需要一种更健康的运作模式。

据分析师和业内高层人士称，政府5年前决定将公民个人住房供应体系由福利分房转向私人购买产权房，这一转变引发了高档住房需求急剧膨胀，大量银行资金藉此纷纷涌向房地产市场。各银行无视央行的规定，对那些项目自筹资金比例不足规定要求的30%的开发商也网开一面，并向那些无力支付首批20%房款的潜在购房者发放按揭。 另外，开发商在楼盘开工前就开始预售的做法非常普遍（而央行6月份的通知要求只有在完成大部分结构后才能开始发售）。

结果，截至今年4月，中国各银行的房地产贷款余额达到2,220亿元，占银行贷款总额的比例高达17%，超过了央行规定的对任何一个行业贷款不得超过15%的上限。这种情形不禁令人想起泰国在1997年亚洲金融危机爆发前的情形，以及香港众多高档地产项目长期困扰当地经济的现状。

新加坡发展银行(DBS Bank)驻香港的中国问题经济学家梁兆基(Chris Leung)说，从历史得出的教训是，应该在泡沫破裂前遏制其膨胀势头。 股价下跌也间接损害了政府的努力。分析师认为，首当其冲受到信贷收缩影响的主要还不是大型上市公司，而是小型的、尚未上市的私营地产开发商，他们手头可以利用来进一步筹集资金的地产和其他资产极少。而对万科和中远发展股份有限公司(COSCO Development Co. Ltd., Q.COD)这类大型企业来说，除了股价外，其他方面的影响很有限，原因是这些国有企业规模庞大，并且在房地产外，还有其他一些投资项目。

在贷款市场占据主导地位的国有银行一向偏爱国营企业，因此在收缩信贷时，他们可能会先从私营企业下手。随著小型私营企业陷入困境，它们将因拥有土地开发权而成为万科和中远发展这样的大公司觊觎的收购目标。

香港一位分析师说，如果有20%的小公司消亡，大公司肯定会乐不可支。

分析师们预计，接下来房地产行业将展开一场适者生存的斗争。由于央行的新规定将加剧开发商的财务负担，他们有可能降低房价以刺激收入增长。而买房人数增加将催生更多的地产项目，并伴之以更多的银行贷款。

上海房地产业谘询人士Sam Crispin说，房地产是经济发展中的一个支柱行业，政府不可能听任其持续下滑拖累经济，因此

股市目前处于熊市中的短线上扬？
Is This Stock Market A Bull Within a Bear?

The economy keeps turning in mediocre news. Never mind, say the market pros, looking through rosy glasses.

Money managers now are persuaded that an infusion of heavy economic stimulus from the Federal Reserve and from Bush-administration tax cuts will revive the economy, even if the signs are few. Many, including some onetime skeptics, are looking past economic disappointments, figuring things will get better soon.

Who cares if manufacturing activity still is weak and unemployment is at a nine-year high? If you believe the economy is going to recover as summer wears on, then stocks are the place to be. Or so goes the thinking.

That could be risky for investors who aren't nimble enough to pull back from stocks later on, in case they peak later this year or sometime next year. But for now, the bet seems to be paying off.

Higher for the Week

Despite a slump Thursday in light trading ahead of the Fourth of July, stocks rebounded last week from their brief late-June declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the holiday-shortened week up 0.9% and is now up 8.7% for the year so far. The Nasdaq Composite rose 2.4% last week and is nearly 25% higher for the year.
One big reason for the recent stock rally is that many investment institutions -- pension funds, insurance companies, bank trust departments -- have decided that in an improving economy, stocks will do better than Treasury bonds. Treasury bonds had soared in value for most of this year. The bonds' yields, which fall when the prices rise, have hit 45-year lows, which makes bonds less attractive now to own, based on the income they provide.
So big professional investors have been selling some bond holdings, taking profits and shifting money into stocks. That broad shift has outweighed any short-term worries about the economy.
"People who sold stocks at the end of the quarter are back in, buying now," says Tim Heekin, director of trading at San Francisco brokerage firm Thomas Weisel Partners. "Institutions want to put money to work. In the next two to three weeks, as earnings trickle out, we may see some hiccups. But the market is anticipating positive earnings numbers in the third and fourth quarters. People are shaking off bad news in the short run."
Sounds great for the short run. It may be less heartening for the longer run. Why? Many analysts worry stocks will run out of steam later this year or next year. Unlike the bull market of the late 1990s, which ran and ran, this bull market looks like a more traditional "cyclical" one, meaning it will last for a while and then stumble.
Meanwhile, stocks are gaining before good news actually arrives -- which is what often happens in the market. The result: Once the actual economic recovery arrives, it may be too late to cash in.
For the true long-term investor, the market's ups and downs over the next few months don't matter much. What matters is whether stocks are up 10 or 15 years from now, as they likely will be. But for someone with a shorter horizon, the risks are there.
Shift Toward Stocks
Brett Gallagher, the New York-based head of U.S. stock investing for Swiss money-management firm Bank Julius Baer, has been a longtime stock skeptic, which has helped him weather stock-market storms better than many. He now is bullish and has shifted money toward the stock market -- but only for the next few months.
"We still are cautious long term," he says. "We believe that the rally we are seeing right now is a bull run within the context of a larger bear market."
If he's right, short-term investors need to stay nimble to avoid being caught when stocks turn back down again. But that isn't the way most people are thinking.

Many money managers believe that the economy has turned the corner and now will provide sustained growth, keeping stocks on an upward path for several years. They could be right. A lot of investment pros think second-quarter corporate earnings could come in a touch better than forecast, which could keep fueling stocks' gains.

But given all the false starts and failed rallies of the past three years, the level of optimism among the pros about the current rally seems surprising. They see short-term interest rates moving close to zero and note that billions of dollars in federal tax cuts are slated to hit the economy in the next year. They look past the tax boosts planned by states and cities.

"There is a thought process that the recovery is in place and that the second half of the year is going to be a good one," says Matthew Johnson, head of U.S. stock trading at New York brokerage firm Lehman Brothers.

Even if the economy fights its way out of recession, the optimism could be overdone. This recovery could be less exuberant than others. Businesses still are saddled with heavy debts and a lot of unused production capacity, which may keep them from making the kinds of heavy investments they usually do in a recovery. Consumers never stopped spending during the recession, making it hard for them to boost spending a lot now.

Toughing It Out

That doesn't mean the current rally is over. But anyone who isn't willing to tough out ups and downs should keep an eye peeled for signs the rally is fizzling out. Based on the average length of cyclical bull markets, says analyst Paul Desmond of Lowry's Reports in North Palm Beach, Fla., this one may have five or six months left to run -- not five or six years.

And the gains now could be less dramatic than they have been.

"We see maybe 5% upside to the market between now and the end of the year," says Richard Nash , chief investment strategist at Victory Capital Management in Cleveland, a money-management arm of KeyCorp. "Valuations are getting up there. Stocks already trade at 19 times my estimates for this year's earnings, and at 17 times next year's earnings," based on the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, he says.

That's well above historical norms, which are in the midteens. As long as interest rates stay low, Mr. Nash and other analysts say, stocks may not fall, because investors may continue to prefer stocks to bonds. But investors aren't going to overlook disappointing economic news forever, and "if we get any delay in the timing or the magnitude of the recovery we could see some pullback," Mr. Nash warns.
股市目前处于熊市中的短线上扬？

经济方面继续传来平淡无奇的消息，但市场专业人士乐观地表示：不要紧。

投资经理目前相信，联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)采取的经济刺激措施和布什(Bush)政府实施的减税措施将令经济实现复苏─即使这类迹象还很少出现。包括一些曾经持怀疑态度的人士也将令人失望的经济消息置之脑后，他们预计事态将很快好转。

制造活动依然疲弱，失业率也达到9年来的最高水平，可又有谁会在乎呢？如果你相信经济将随著夏季的逐渐过去而出现复苏，则股市无疑是个好去处。大概好多人的想法正是如此。

而一旦股市在今年晚些时候或明年触顶回落，对于那些届时不能灵活地回撤的投资者而言，看好股市的这类想法充满了风险。但目前来看，这种想法似乎正在获得回报。

上周走高

虽然股市在上周四、即国庆日前一天的清淡交易中大跌，但股市上周全周还是从6月末的跌势中实现反弹。道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数上周上涨0.9%，目前的水平较年初上涨了8.7%。那斯达克综合指数上周上扬2.4%，较年初上涨近25%。
最近股市上涨的一个重大原因在于，包括退休基金、保险公司和银行信托部门在内的许多投资机构都认为，在经济状况不断改善的情况下，股票市场的表现将好于债券市场。今年以来的大部分时间内，国债价格都曾大幅上扬。与价格呈逆向走势的国债收益率已经降至45年来的最低水平，从债券收益的角度来看，目前国债已不那么具有吸引力。

所以大型专业投资者一直在出售所持有的部分国债，锁定盈利并将资金投入股市。这样大范围的资金转移影响巨大，超过对经济存在任何短期担忧的影响。

旧金山经纪公司Thomas Weisel Partners的交易主管提姆?希金(Tim Heekin)称，上个季度末出售股票的那些人士回来了，他们现在在买进。

"机构投资者希望将资金利用起来。未来两三周，随著公司陆续公布收益，我们可能会看到一些小问题。但市场现在预计第三和第四季度会出现积极的收益消息。人们对短期内的坏消息置之不理。"

听起来短期非常不错。但较长期限可能就没这么振奋人心了。原因何在？许多分析师担心股市的上涨势头会在今年晚些时候或明年丧失殆尽。在上世纪90年代末的牛市中，股市一涨再涨，但这次似乎有所不同，更像是通常的"周期性"上涨，即上涨一段时间之后就会下挫。

而与此同时，股市在好消息真正到来之前不断上涨─市场通常都会这样。结果为，一旦经济复苏真正到来之际，将投资兑现可能为时已晚。

对于真正的长线投资者而言，未来数月内股市的涨跌无关紧要。重要的是股市能否从现在开始上涨10或15年，这么长时间的上涨也倒有可能。但对短线投资者而言，风险就在眼前。

转向股市

布雷特?嘉力格(Brett Gallagher)就一直对长期股市走向持怀疑态度。这位瑞士基金管理公司Bank Julius Baer驻纽约的美国股市投资主管就曾借助于这类观点，比其他许多人更好地抵御了股市风暴的冲击。他目前对股市看涨，已将资金转向股市，但这仅限于未来几个月内。

"我们仍对长线持谨慎态度"。他称，"我们相信眼前所看到的涨势只是更大范围内熊市行情中的一段牛市而已。"

如果他的观点正确，则短线投资者需要保持敏捷的思绪，避免在股市再度下跌时被套牢。但这种观点与大多数人目前的想法不同。 许多投资经理相信，经济已出现转机，从现在起将持续增长，从而会在未来几年内推动股市沿著上升通道前进。

他们可能是正确的。许多投资老手都认为第二季度的公司业绩可能略好于预期，这可能为股市的上涨继续提供动力。

但从过去3年内过早上涨而最终未果的情况来看，业内人士对于当前涨势的乐观程度看起来令人吃惊。他们看到短期利率在逐渐向零靠近，并指出，明年将有数十亿美元的联邦政府减税措施落实到经济生活中。他们对各州和各市的增税计划不予理会。

"有人认为复苏已经开始，今年下半年的情况将会不错。"纽约经纪公司雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)的美国股票交易主管马修?约翰逊(Matthew Johnson)称。

但即使经济能够奋力走出衰退，这种乐观情绪可能也有些过头。此次复苏的力度可能不及以往。一方面，企业仍背负著巨额债务，很多生产能力处于闲置状态，这些因素可能使得它们不会做出像在通常经济复苏时那样的巨额投资。

另一方面，消费者在经济衰退期间也从未停止过消费，这使得他们目前难以进行大笔消费。

默默承受

这并非意味著当前的涨势已经结束。但任何人若不愿意承受涨跌的后果，都应密切关注涨势在逐渐减弱的迹象。佛罗里达州北棕榈滩Lowry's Reports的分析师保罗?德斯蒙德(Paul Desmond)称，从牛市行情平均周期的长度来看，目前的涨势还能持续5、6个月，而非5、6年。

目前的涨幅可能也不如以往那样激烈。

"我们预计从现在起到年底时，市场将有5%的上涨空间。"Victory Capital Management的首席投资策略师里查德?纳什(Richard Nash)称，"股票的估价在上升。按照我对今年收益的预期来看，股市的本益比已达19倍，以对明年的收益预期来计算，本益比为17倍。"他所说的这些股票是指标准普尔500指数的成份股。纳什所在的这家资金管理公司是KeyCorp的一个部门，位于克利夫兰。

这远远高于通常为15倍左右的历史平均水平。纳什和其他分析师称，只要利率保持低位，股市可能就不会下跌，因为投资者会继续在股票和债券之间选择前者。但投资者不会永远都忽视令人失望的经济消息，"如果复苏的时机滞后，或是复苏的力度不足，股市将可能出现一些回调。"纳什警告说。