China Made Scapegoat For Global Econ Woes -Morgan Stanley
China's strong economic growth amid a prolonged global slowdown has made it a scapegoat for other countries' problems, as shown by the international pressure for a yuan revaluation, Morgan Stanley Managing Director and Chief Economist Stephen S. Roach said Monday.
Roach said China's status as the world economy's "brightest star" had prompted unfair pressure for a revaluation of the yuan.
Such international lobbying ignored factors including the bursting of the U.S. bubble economy, the crisis in Japan's banks and disagreement among European Union countries regarding monetary union behind what Roach called the current "dysfunctional" global economic situation.
"The world has a problem (but) unfortunately there aren't too many countries that want to look in the mirror and blame themselves," Roach told reporters at a briefing in Beijing.
"China is a scapegoat (because) China is doing well, the world isn't and therefore it is almost human nature to pick on a person who is doing better than you when you're down."
Triggered by a slide in the value of the dollar, the U.S. recently joined Japan's campaign to apply pressure on China to revalue the yuan, possibly by widening a tightly managed trading band. China's currency is only convertible on the trade account and even then is kept in a tightly managed range against the dollar.
Because of China's large current account surpluses, a revaluation of the yuan or a move toward flexible exchange rates would likely make exports to China more competitive.
Roach said China's economic performance will continue to be powered by a potential $80 billion to $100 billion increase in exports in 2003.
China posted a worldbeating 8% year-on-year economic growth rate in 2002 due to a combination of increased exports as well as massive state capital spending and a record flow of foreign direct investment
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Roach said he supported China's currency policy and the government's announced intentions to eventually open its capital account and to make the yuan convertible.
China adopted a strong and stable yuan policy in 1994 as part of its introduction of a managed float. Officials have often stated that full convertibility of the yuan is an eventual objective but have remained vague about the timing.
Roach warned that such reforms were years away and that any move by China to speed up currency policy reform due to international pressure was unwise.
"China...mustn't be forced into accelerating its commitment to its longer term objectives of an open capital account and currency convertibility by external conditions," Roach said. "It has to be right inside of China...the rest of the world will put pressure on you to tell you it's right (but) don't trust it."
Roach also joined a chorus of international observers who have praised China's containment of its SARS outbreak.
Severe acute respiratory syndrome is suspected to have originated in China's southern Guangdong province in November, but the extent of the epidemic was downplayed by local health authorities until April 20.
The official blackout on the extent of the initial outbreak allowed SARS to spread to Hong Kong and then to several other countries, including Singapore and Canada.
The disease killed more than 800 people worldwide.
Roach said China's belated official response to SARS suggests unprecedented new levels of official accountability and transparency.
"I look at China post-SARS and see China acting with more strategic promise than I would have expected after the initial missteps," he said.
摩根士丹利：中国成为全球经济问题的替罪羊
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的董事总经理兼首席经济学家史蒂芬罗奇(Stephen S. Roach)周一在评述全球经济失调的情况时指出，国际舆论正在对中国施加压力，要求对人民币重新估价，从中可以看出，由于中国在一场持续的世界经济萧条中始终保持强劲的经济增长势头，其他国家正在把他们出现的问题推到中国身上。
史蒂芬罗奇在北京举行的一次新闻发布会上对记者说，世界经济的确出现了问题，但不幸的是，大多数国家都没有进行自我审查和批评。
他指出，中国在这场全世界范围内的经济萧条中做得很出色，但世界上其他一些国家和地区却并非如此。也正因为如此，中国成了他国推诿自身问题的对象，这是人的本性所决定的。因为当一个人处于劣势时，他往往会去攻击和指责那个做得比自己好的人。
受美元汇率下跌的影响，美国最近联合日本开始对中国施加压力，要求对人民币进行重新估价，目的可能是扩大其窄幅波动的区间。中国只允许贸易项目下的人民币实行自由兑换，而且人民币兑美元汇率受到严格监控。
由于中国资本项目盈余，上调人民币汇率的举动都可能使得对中国的出口更具有竞争力。
史蒂芬罗奇称中国的经济表现将得到继续推动，原因是其2003年的出口额将强劲攀升800亿-1,000亿美元。
受出口额增长、巨额国家资本支出和创纪录的外国直接投资的综合作用，中国2002年的经济增长率高达8%，超出了任何一个国家。
罗奇表示，他支持中国的货币政策，并且中国政府已经宣布有意最终开放中国的资本帐户并实现人民币的可自由兑换。
中国在1994年对人民币汇率采取了一种强硬而稳健的政策，也就是目前所推行的管理浮动制度。有关的官员经常表示，人民币的完全可兑换是一个最终目标，但他们对具体的时间一直是含糊其词。
罗奇警告说，这样的改革还需要几年的时间，而中国政府迫于国际压力而做出加快汇率政策改革的任何举措都是不明智的。 罗奇表示，中国不能因为外部条件而被迫加速其开放资本帐户和货币自由兑换的长期目标进程，这必须是由中国内部自身的情况所决定，其他国家会对中国施加压力，表示说这么做是正确的，但不能完全相信他们。
对于中国在控制非典型肺炎(SARS)方面所做的工作，罗奇和其他一些国际观察人士都提出了赞扬。
SARS被怀疑是去年11月份在中国南部的广东省发源，但中国的卫生医疗机构在4月20之前一直忽视了该传染病的危害性。
中国的有关方面最初封锁了SARS的疫情，使得SARS最终传播到了香港和其他一些国家，包括新加坡和加拿大。
这种疾病夺去了全球超过800人的生命。
罗奇表示，后来中国官方对SARS所作出的反应显示出中国官方的可信度和透明度已经到达了一个史无前例的全新高度。
他表示，他在观察后SARS时期的中国，并且他看到在经历了最初的一些差错之后，中国作出了比他预期的更多的战略性承诺。
