CHINA WATCH:U.S. Takes Aim At China Over Chip Mfg Losses
In just two years, the U.S. has lost a quarter of its semiconductor factories to lower-cost centers like China and Taiwan, and politicians in Washington are calling for action to halt the exodus.
Though the shift in production hasn't reduced the nation's 50% share of the $141-billion-a-year chip market, they say the loss threatens to erode the U.S. lead in military technology, possibly in favor of China. The Pentagon would seem to agree.
"The (U.S.) Department of Defense faces shrinking advantages across all technology areas...(due to the) offshore movement of intellectual capital and industrial capability, particularly in microelectronics," said a report from the department's Advisory Group On Electron Devices. The report was obtained by Dow Jones Newswires through U.S.-based Manufacturing & Technology News.
The U.S. hasn't taken any action yet, but some policy makers say new incentives are needed to keep chip factories at home - and away from Taiwan and China.
Trouble in the chip sector began when the dotcom bubble burst, sending chip sales plummeting by a massive 32% to US$138.9 billion in 2001 from record levels the year before.
Companies like Motorola Inc. (MOT) responded by shuttering chip plants in the U.S. and outsourcing production to Asia. In all, 72 plants have closed in the U.S. over the last two years through the end of 2002, compared with 47 in the rest of the world, according to market researcher Gartner Dataquest. At the same time, 60 new plants were built in East Asia, including 15 in China and 12 in Taiwan, while only 19 new plants opened in the U.S.
Fears May Be Overblown
The decline in chip production at home prompted Democratic Senator and presidential candidate Joseph Lieberman to issue an open letter last month to the U.S. Defense Department, saying that "relying on integrated circuits fabricated outside the U.S. (e.g. in China, Taiwan and Singapore) is not an acceptable national security option," given the importance of semiconductors to the high-tech dominance enjoyed by the U.S. military.
These fears may be a bit overblown. Chips used for U.S. defense purposes are fabricated at home, and far more chip plants remain in production in the U.S. than in China and Taiwan combined.
Still, the concern is that a loss of chip manufacturing overseas could harm the U.S. lead in research and development and cause the military to lose its technological edge - although as yet there are no signs of this.
And the U.S.'s loss would be China's gain, so the argument goes. China could put its increasing prowess in chip technology to military use, like improving the precision of the 400 missiles it has aimed at Taiwan from its southern coast.
The U.S. long has viewed China as the top long-term threat to its military dominance in the region, and the mainland's relations with Taiwan remain one of the world's most potentially dangerous flash points. The two split in 1949 amid civil war, and China has threatened to retake the island by force if necessary.
Incentives Could Be Effective
Lieberman has called on officials to work more closely with state and local governments to promote tax breaks and other incentives aimed at convincing companies to build new chip plants in the U.S.
This could be an effective strategy. The biggest cost of a modern chip plant is its equipment. Land and labor, where China has an advantage, matter much less in the equation.
"Incentives have helped in every country in Asia and I think it would work in the U.S., but only at the high end because that's the sector where the U.S.'s competitive advantages lie," said Dorothy Lai , a chip-sector analyst at Gartner Dataquest in Hong Kong.
And this could be the right time for incentives. The chip market appears to be in the early stages of a recovery and some U.S. companies like Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) recently have announced plans to build new plants.
To be sure, any plan for incentives is far from getting off the ground. Lieberman's office says no legislation has been introduced regarding the issue and none appears to be in the works.
Calls to keep chip production at home also may fade once U.S. presidential elections are over. China is often the target of U.S. politicians at election time, not surprising considering some of the emotionally-charged issues involved - a growing trade deficit, the loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs and human rights.
But the 800-pound gorilla in this debate is the U.S. military establishment. If it sees a threat in China's growing chip capabilities, it could throw its considerable weight into the fray.
"If they sing from the same song-sheet, the U.S. military and security agencies can have a decisive voice in the debate over the migration of semiconductor manufacturing capability...," said Merrit T. Cooke, a senior fellow at the U.S.-based Foreign Policy Research Institute.
美国晶片制造外流，政客矛头直指中国
在短短两年的时间内，美国高达四分之一的半导体加工业务都转移到了中国和台湾等地低成本的加工厂，而华盛顿的一些政客正呼吁政府采取措施，遏制这种势头。
尽管生产中心的转移并未对美国在全球晶片市场上所占的份额产生影响，但政治家们认为，这会削弱美国在军事技术领域的领先地位，并可能有利于中国。美国五角大楼的官员似乎也赞同这种观点。全球晶片市场年销售额高达1,410亿美元，其中美国所占的份额为50%。
美国国防部(Department of Defense)电子设备顾问集团(Advisory Group On Electron Devices)在一份报告中指出， 美国国防部在所有技术领域里的优势都在逐渐缩小甚至消失，其主要原因是其他国家在智慧资本和工业产能方面正在急起直追，这一点在微电子领域里体现得尤为明显。道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)通过总部位于美国的《制造及科技业报》(Manufacturing & Technology News)获得了上述报告。
虽然迄今为止美国尚未采取任何行动，但一些决策者表示，需要采取一些激励政策，鼓励厂商将晶片制造业务留在美国国内，而不是外包给台湾和中国。
晶片行业自互联网泡沫破裂开始就步入了困境，2001年晶片销售额骤减32%，从此前一年的创纪录水平降至1,389亿美元。
为了度过难关，摩托罗拉(Motorola Inc., MOT)等大公司关闭了美国的晶片工厂，并将生产任务外包到亚洲地区。市场研究公司Gartner Dataquest的调查显示，截至2002年底的两年中，美国共关闭了72家晶片工厂，而全球其他国家共关闭了47家晶片工厂。同期内东亚地区新开了60家晶片厂，其中15家位于中国大陆，12家在台湾，而在美国的只有19家。
危害国家安全的说法或危言耸听
出于对美国本土晶片加工业萎缩的担忧，民主党参议员、总统候选人利伯曼(Joseph Lieberman)上月发出了一封致美国国防部的公开信，他在信中指出，考虑到半导体产业对于美军高科技优势的重要性，依靠美国以外国家和地区（如中国、台湾和新加坡）生产的集成电路，对于国家安全而言不是能让人接受的选择。
这种担忧或许有些危言耸听，因为美国的军用晶片都是在国内制造，同时美国本土的晶片工厂数量仍远远高于中国和台湾的总和。
不过仍有人担心，晶片制造业向海外转移会削弱美国在研发领域的领先地位，从而导致美军失去技术上的优势，虽说尚无任何迹象表明已经出现了这种问题。
他们还认为，美国失去优势就等于为中国增添优势。中国将把日益提高的晶片技术应用于军事领域，譬如说用以提高部署在南部沿海、目标直指台湾的400枚导弹的精确度。
长期以来，美国一直视中国为挑战美国在亚洲地区军事优势的首要威胁，而中国大陆与台湾之间的关系仍是全球最具潜在危险的热点。双方自1949年以来一直各自为政，而中国一直威胁要在必要时将以武力收复台湾。
激励措施有望留住晶片制造业
利伯曼呼吁美国政府与州和州以下地方政府紧密合作，制定从州到联邦的系列税收减免优惠及其他激励措施，鼓励公司在美国设立新晶片工厂。
这可能成为一种有效的策略。因为现代晶片工厂最大的成本在于设备。相比之下，中国拥有的土地和劳动力成本优势则显得不那么重要。 Gartner Dataquest驻香港的晶片行业分析师Dorothy Lai表示，亚洲各国所采取的激励措施都起到了作用，在美国也一样会起作用，但主要是在高端市场，因为那才是美国晶片行业的竞争力所在。
而眼下正是美国推出激励措施的大好时机。全球晶片市场正显示开始复苏的迹象，而德州仪器(Texas Instruments Inc., TXN)等一些美国公司最近刚刚宣布了设立新晶片工厂的计划。
然而有一点可以确定的是，目前尚无任何一项激励措施进入立法程序。利伯曼的办公室指出，目前政府没有向国会提出任何与此有关的议案，而且似乎也没有任何相关的动议在酝酿中。
同时，随著美国总统大选的结束，将晶片制造业务留在国内的呼声可能也会逐渐消退。在总统大选期间，中国往往会成为美国政客们攻击的目标，所涉及的议题从贸易逆差扩大到制造业工人失业、再到人权等问题不一而足，且批评者情绪激动、语言尖锐也不足为奇。
但这场辩论中最关键的还是美国军方的态度。如果他们认为中国日益提高的晶片生产能力对于美国构成威胁的话，他们的意见将起到决定性的作用。
美国智囊机构外国政策研究院(Foreign Policy Research Institute)的资深研究员Merrit T. Cooke指出，如果美国军方和国家安全机构的看法一致，那么它们将在关于美国半导体业务外流的辩论中起到决定性作用。
