Japan Has New Tactic on the Yen That Lets It 'Sell' Without Selling
Japan's foreign-exchange intervention data for June show a significant decline, but that doesn't mean the government has been any less active in the currency markets.
At issue is a new yen-selling tactic that limits the number of deals that are recorded. Called "all-or-nothing intervention" by bank traders who have been tapped to buy dollars and sell yen on behalf of the Japanese Ministry of Finance, the tactic allows Tokyo to continue intervening heavily to keep the Japanese currency from strengthening. At the same time, it keeps many of the deals from showing up in government data, according to people in the currency markets.
Japan's new way of intervening also suggests the ministry is seeking to keep the dollar between ￥115 and ￥120, not to drive it higher.
In ordinary yen-selling intervention, the Finance Ministry, through the Bank of Japan , asks a private bank to buy a certain number of dollars for yen at a price designated by the ministry. The bank places the dollar-purchase order in the market, and when the market transactions are completed, the ministry pays yen to the bank in return for the dollars, resulting in the deal being put into the ministry's records.
With the new method, Tokyo relies on other banks to catch on to the fact that one bank is buying dollars for yen on behalf of Japanese authorities. The other banks start buying the U.S. currency, jumping on the bandwagon of an intervention-inspired dollar rise. The ministry can then simply abandon its order, as its aim of strengthening the U.S. currency has been met. Because the order is canceled, it isn't recorded in official data.
Later on, because the ministry and Bank of Japan no longer are involved in the deal, the bank that initially received the order can sell dollars at the higher price, generating a handsome profit. Thus, the Finance Ministry either goes all-out in its intervention effort or, at a certain point, decides to rescind its order, making it an all-or-nothing intervention.
The technique takes advantage of the fact that currency traders often realize that intervention is occurring because of the huge size of the transactions, even if they themselves don't get the intervention orders from the Bank of Japan .
Intervention volume for June totaled ￥628.9 billion ($5.33 billion). That is less than a third of the ￥two trillion the market expected, as Japan continued to actively enter the currency market. The figures for May, when official records show that Japan's intervention amount was a record ￥four trillion, probably also were skewed by the new tactic.
The tactic suggests that Tokyo's intention isn't to sharply weaken the yen but rather to keep it from rising above a certain level. The government still is concerned that a much-stronger yen would weigh on the country's exports and worsen deflation at a time when the local economy remains sluggish. But if Tokyo appears too keen to weaken the yen, that could draw the ire of Washington and neighboring Asian governments, which worry about a weak yen hurting their own exporters. Some of the governments disapprove of Japan's activity in currency-market trading.
Letting banks take profits on the aborted dollar-buying intervention suggests the Finance Ministry isn't enthusiastic about hoisting the dollar above ￥120, considering that foreign-government officials might complain about such a yen depreciation.
The new intervention strategy also may please Finance Ministry bureaucrats because it keeps down the recorded volume of yen-selling intervention, as only orders that are completed are penciled into the ministry's books. That gives Tokyo cover if other governments criticize Japan's reliance on engineering a weak yen to spur economic growth.
日本干预汇市玩弄新花招
如果6月份的日本汇市干预数据看上去小的令人质疑，原因只有一个：日本外汇当局在运用一种新的日圆抛售策略，这一策略使官方统计中的交易数量显得十分有限。
市场消息人士说，上述策略被那些代表日本财务省(Ministry of Finance)买入美元并卖出日圆的银行交易员称为"或有或无的干预"策略，既能使日本政府继续大举入市干预，以阻止日圆走强，同时又能使许多交易不反映在政府的统计数据中。
这一新的干预策略还暗示，财务省希望将美元兑日圆汇率限制在115至120日圆之间，而不是将美元汇率推高。
一位外汇市场消息人士说，在新的干预策略下，并非所有财务省的干预指令最终都将被作为"汇市干预"纪录在案。
这一新花样利用了以下情况：由于有大量交易指令出现，外汇交易员常常能感觉到政府在入市干预，尽管他们自己并未得到日本央行(Bank of Japan)的干预指令。
在一般的汇市干预行动中，财务省会透过日本央行(BOJ)要求一家私有银行按财务省指定的价位以日圆买进一定数量的美元。
这家银行然后在市场中发出买入美元指令，在交易完成时，财务省向该银行支付日圆换取美元，此次交易也就被财务省记录在案。
但财务省眼下采取的干预方法是，当其他银行了解到一家银行在代表日本政府买入美元时，这些银行也将跟著买入美元，以抓住美元受干预推动的上涨走势，此时财务省就将撤销其指令，因为推动美元走强的目的已经达到。由于指令被取消，因此干预行动也就不会被统计在官方的数据中。 随后，由于财务省和央行已退出交易，最初得到指令的银行就会以上升后的汇率出售美元，并获得可观的利润。
因此日本财务省在干预中要么竭尽全力，要么在一定时候决定取消指令，从而使干预成为"或有或无"。
一箭双雕
这种干预策略说明，日本政府入市干预的真实意图并非是将日圆大幅贬值，而是阻止日圆汇率升至一定水平之上。 在日本经济依旧停滞不前的情况下，日本政府担心日圆的过度上涨将打击出口，并导致通货紧缩形势进一步恶化。但是，如果日本显得过于急迫使日圆贬值，那将招致美国和周边亚洲各国政府的愤怒，这些国家担心，日圆贬值将损害本国出口商的利益。一些政府还反对日本不断对汇市进行干预。
上述汇市消息人士说，财务省为能保住目标汇率而高兴，而接受财务省指令的银行则因为能够获利而开心。从某一方面说，新的干预策略是一箭双雕之计。
允许银行在放弃干预行动后卖出美元获利一事说明，财务省并不急于将美元汇率推高至120日圆以上，原因是考虑到外国政府可能对日圆贬值感到不满。
消息人士说，日本财务省对美元汇率的底线是115日圆。但是他们也知道，将美元汇率推高至120日圆以上是不现实的。以此看来，新的干预方法看来是将美元兑日圆限定在115至120日圆的最好选择。
新干预策略取悦于财务省官员的另一个地方在于，该办法减少了汇市干预统计数据，因为只有完成的指令才会被记录在财务省的帐目中。
一位政府消息人士说，如果其他国家政府批评日本政府靠操纵日圆疲软来推动经济增长，上述策略将为日本政府提供庇护，日本政府可以声称，数据表明日本政府没有进行过大规模干预，是市场力量推动日圆疲软。
不要相信数据
这一切将有助于解释为什么6月份日本入市干预的总金额只有区区6,289亿日元（略高于50亿美元）。消息人士说，这个数字还不到市场所预计的2万亿日圆的三分之一。
消息人士说，实际上5月份的数据可能也是歪曲的，因为当时日本已经采用了新的干预策略，而且财务省最初发出的交易指令所涉及的金额可能远大于统计在案的数额。据官方数据显示，5月份日本对汇市进行干预的总金额达到创纪录的4万亿日圆。换言之，如果日本没有改变干预策略，统计数据可能会更高。
外汇市场消息人士说，从中可以看出，你无法再仅凭已公布的交易数据来推测财务省支持美元汇率的意愿到底多大。
