Japan Stocks Are Rolling,But Will Good Times Last?
Since the beginning of June, the Nikkei 225 index has shot up 18%, while the more broad-based Topix index of companies that trade on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange has risen 16%. That compares with a 3.5% rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a 4.4% advance in the Dow Jones Stoxx index of 600 leading European companies.
Not bad for a country that many individual investors, analysts and money managers view as something akin to the world's Mickey Mouse economy. Japan has been in recession for the better part of a decade, hobbled by a banking system laden with nonperforming loans, and bloated with companies that should have died years ago. Some believe its economy lacks innovation. And leaders and bureaucrats in the land of the rising sun have been very slow to see the light and make the hard choices to jumpstart the economy.
So investors must decide whether the current run will soon become another 10-minute cartoon or develop into a full-length feature film. There are plenty of reasons to be cautious. And even more to be cautiously optimistic as a growing number of money managers pile in.
In mid-June, Belkin Ltd., a Bainbridge Island, Washington, investment adviser to hedge funds and institutional investors, told clients the 13-year Japanese bear market had ended and forecast Tokyo stocks would soar an additional 31% above current levels. Earlier that month, AXA Investment Management went overweight Japan in its global portfolios. At the same time, UBS also recommended that clients overweight Japan. Last Friday, the firm increased that position. And last week, Credit Suisse First Boston upgraded Japan to overweight from underweight.
Indeed, in the past five or six weeks, foreign investors have bought about two trillion yen ($17.05 billion or �14.98 billion) of Japanese shares. Thursday marked the 31st consecutive trading day that volume exceeded a billion shares, the longest run since Saturday trading was abandoned in 1989. On July 3 the iShares MSCI Japan exchange-traded fund had its largest volume trading day on the American Stock Exchange.
A cynic could argue that asset allocators are merely playing the round-the-world rotation game of first the U.S., then Europe, so why not Japan? Or that market strategists have merely run out of ideas. "The U.S. stock market went up, and the Tokyo market hadn't gone up, and people felt, 'Well, it's Tokyo's turn,' " says Marshall Gittler, a yen strategist at Deutsche Bank in Tokyo.
Detractors might also contend that money managers are leaping onto the Japanese bandwagon out of fear of underperforming. No doubt, there is some truth to each of these arguments. "Japan is very underowned by foreign institutions, and a lot of hedge funds have been short Japan," says Nick Reid, a senior investment manager at Gartmore Investment Management in London. "When the market starts moving, the shorts have to be covered and foreign institutional investors pile in."
Adds David Bowers, chief global investment strategist at Merrill Lynch in London: "There are many hurdles to overcome before converting what is essentially a tactical trade and hedge against much stronger global growth into a serious investment proposition."
Even so, there is more to the Japanese rally than a bunch of frightened hedge funds cutting their losses or unimaginative portfolio managers trying to jump aboard a speeding train.
"Even if you don't believe in the longevity of this rally, there's a cyclical case for going overweight Japan," says Nigel Richardson , head of global asset allocation at AXA Investment Management in London. Noting that about 45% of the Japanese market comprises cyclical companies, compared with 20% or so for the U.S. and Europe, he says that Japan is a big leveraged bet on a U.S. recovery. Nearly 80% of the time there is a pickup in global leading economic indicators, Japanese stocks have outperformed other markets, says CSFB.
Longer term, Japanese companies are restructuring, albeit not at the lightning speed many investors would like. Mr. Richardson says they are cutting expenses and improving operating margins; and they are using cash flow to pay off debt and buy back stock. Share buybacks in the fiscal year ended March 30 totaled roughly 2.75 trillion yen, or about double dividend payments.
By various measures, Japanese shares are historically cheap, says Gartmore's Mr. Reid, adding that the economy "is in a recovery mode, while other regions, such as Europe, are not." He also contends that operating profits could climb 10% to 15%, "which is stronger than continental Europe or the U.S."
He has been buying big banks, like UFJ Holdings; real-estate stocks, like Sumitomo Realty; and trading companies, such as Mitsubishi Corp. He also likes technology companies, such as chip maker Tokyo Electron.
There is, of course, the big risk. "If the U.S. economy goes into recession, all bets are off on Japan," says Mr. Reid. But in that case, Japan might not be any worse than the carnage that would be wreaked in global markets as a whole.
日本股市春风得意能多久？
从今年6月份开始，日经225指数已累计上涨18%，涵盖更多股票的东证指数也上涨了16%。但与此同时，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数仅上涨了3.5%，由600家欧洲主要公司构成的道琼斯斯托克指数也不过才上涨了4.4%。
这对日本来说这是件好事。日本经济近十年来几乎一直处于萧条状态，银行体系内不良贷款堆积如山，很多公司已经名存实亡了。有人认为，日本经济缺乏创新。而日本领导人和政府官员一直动作迟缓，无法下定决心采取果断措施重振经济。
因此，投资者有必要搞清楚：日本股市近期的上扬只是一个短暂的插曲，还是真正进入了长期上升趋势。人们完全有理由保持谨慎，或者进一步说应该保持谨慎的乐观，因为越来越多的基金经理人涌入日本股市。
华盛顿一家服务于对冲基金和机构投资者的投资谘询公司Belkin Ltd.在6月中旬告诉客户：日本股市长达13年的熊市已经结束，预计未来至少可以较目前的水平再上涨31%。AXA Investment Management在6月初开始在其全球投资组合中增持日本股票。与此同时，瑞士银行(UBS)也建议客户增加在日本的投资，并于上周五采取了行动。同样在上周，瑞士信贷第一波士顿(Credit Suisse First Boston)将对日本资产的投资评级从"减持"上调至"增持"。
事实上，在过去的五、六周内，外国投资者买入了价值2万亿日圆（合170.5亿美元或149.8亿欧元）的日本股票。到周四，东京股市的日均交易量已连续31天超过10亿股。在美国证交所交易的iShares MSCI日本上市交易基金在7月3日(American Stock Exchange)创出单日最大成交量。
有些人可能会说，人们只不过是在全世界轮流配置资产，先是投资美国资产，然后又转战欧洲，这回难道不就轮到日本了么？也或者是市场策略师都黔驴技穷了。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)驻东京的日圆策略师马歇尔．吉特勒(Marshall Gittler)说，美国股市涨过了，日本股市还没有涨，所以人们就觉得，日本股市该涨了。 也许还有人会说，那些基金经理人跑到日本股市赶场，是担心其管理的基金收益比不上别人。其实，所有这些说法都有一定道理。伦敦的Gartmore投资管理公司(Gartmore Investment Management)高级基金经理尼克．莱德(Nick Reid)说，很多外国机构持有的日本资产都相当少，还有很多对冲基金一直在做空日本资产。一旦日本股市启动，空方就必须要回补头寸，而外国机构投资者也必定会蜂拥而至。
美林(Merrill Lynch)驻伦敦的全球投资策略师戴维．鲍尔斯(David Bowers)说，现在外资进入日本市场还只不过是一种战术操作和避险措施，它们是担心在全球经济一旦强劲复苏的情况下失去好的投资机会，要想让它们将日本作为严肃的投资对象来看待，还要跨越很多障碍。 日本股市的大幅上涨包括很多原因，不仅是被上涨势头吓坏了的对冲基金忙于回补空头头寸，或者是那些没什么想法的基金经理人赶著要踏上这列正在加速前行的火车。
AXA Investment Management驻伦敦的全球资产配置主管尼格尔．理查森(Nigel Richardson)说，"如果你还认为日本股市的上涨只是昙花一现，那换个角度思考，用经济周期一样可以解释为什么应当增持日本资产"。他指出，日本股市中大约45%的股票都属于经济周期类股，而在美国和欧洲，这个比例只有20%左右。日本经济本身就极其倚重美国经济的复苏。据瑞士信贷第一波士顿称，一旦全球经济领先指标开始好转，日本股市的表现有大约80%的几率优于其他市场。
从长期来看，日本公司正在进行重组，尽管进展的步伐没有投资者所希望的那么快。理查森说，日本公司正在削减费用，提高营业毛利；它们用现金流偿还债务并回购股票。在截至3月30日的上一财政年度，公司股票回购总额达到约2.75万亿日圆，几乎是派息金额的一倍。
莱德说，用各种指标来衡量，日本股票的估价都处于历史低点。他补充道，日本经济正处于开始复苏的状态，但是其他地区，比如欧洲，却没有。日本公司的营业毛利未来可能增长10%-15%，超出欧洲和美国。
当然，现在投资日本股市也有很大风险。莱德说，如果美国经济陷入衰退，那么对日本的所有指望都将化成泡影。
