FED WATCH: Jobless Recovery Tied To Rise Of Temp Workers
A defining characteristic of the U.S. economy since the recession of 2001 has been its seeming inability to add new workers to the labor force.
The state of affairs surrounding labor markets has been so sour that some
Federal Reserve officials have been willing to join with many private sector
economists and call the current rebound a "jobless recovery," referring back to
the dark days that followed the recession that opened the 1990s.
A big part of the reason for the sluggish job market is the increased prevalence of part-time and temporary workers, say Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City researchers Stacey Schreft and Aarti Singh , in a paper published Monday.
In fact, it's the tie that binds the last two recessions - that of the early 1990s and the three quarter contraction of 2001 - and differentiates them from the normal pattern that's followed most of the other economic downturns in the U.S.
The paper notes that in the first 12 months of the current recovery, the economy lost 220,000 jobs, while the economy lost 211,000 jobs in the first year of the last recovery period. Historically, the economy gained two million jobs in the year following the official end of a recession.
"The failure of employment to grow is not the only distinguishing characteristic of the jobless recoveries," Schreft and Singh wrote. "The use of just-in-time employment practices stands out as well," they said.
Leaner, Meaner, Faster
The Kansas City Fed report comes in a week where economists and markets are likely to receive another reminder about the troubled state of employment in the U.S.
On Thursday the Labor Department will release its June non-farm payrolls report. Analysts expect that after dropping 17,000 jobs in May, payrolls will be flat for the most current month. But they see the unemployment rate rising to 6.2% from 6.1% in May.
The Fed researchers said the broadened use of temporary workers comes as part of deeper shifts in the economy, of the sort that have come as part of the so-called "new economy." That's a world where technology allows companies to be more responsive and productive, using computers to keep inventories in line with demand, and workforces in tune with production needs.
Since the early 1970s, temporary workers as a percentage of the overall labor forces have been on an almost unabated rise.
The paper notes that in January 1972, temporary workers comprised less than 0.5% of the total labor force. That level peaked at around 3% at the beginning of 2001, after which it fell to 2.4% by the end of 2002, representing some three million workers.
Indeed, in the current period and the one following the prior recession, the economy created temporary positions while at the same time destroyed permanent ones.
Part-timers have also become a larger part of the labor force, rising from 14% of all workers in 1968 to 18% in 2002, the paper said. Part-time employment is understated because such numbers exclude positions held by employees who have other jobs that add up to nearly full time employment.
This rising proportion to temporary and part-time jobs represents the desires of both businesses and of some employees, the authors wrote. "Firms are demanding more temporary help in part due to increased competition, rising costs of hiring, firing and providing benefits."
Meanwhile, "workers too are increasingly interested in holding temporary positions for a variety of reasons," including the benefits afforded by flexibility and varied work experiences.
A Positive, With Caveats
Ultimately, Schreft and Singh find that "the very ability of just-in-time employment practices can contribute indirectly to the joblessness of a recovery," in part because businesses can better tune hiring to their needs.
But the practice may contribute "to recessions being shorter and milder" as part of the greater overall flexibility of the economy, they found.
The paper said the increased labor flexibility is "largely positive" for the economy as a whole, but "mixed" for employees themselves.
Still, "it is too soon to tell if future recoveries will also be jobless," the paper said, but "there is every reason to expect...that the use of just-in-time employment practices will persist."
美国经济在"失业"中复苏
2001年的经济衰退过后，美国经济的显著特症是，劳动力市场不能增加新的就业人数。
劳动力市场的状况是如此之差，以至于美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)的一些官员也认同了许多私人部门经济学家的说法，将目前的经济复苏称为"失业性复苏"(jobless recovery)。
堪萨斯城联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)研究员斯塔西?斯科莱福特(Stacey Schreft)和艾提?辛(Aarti Singh)在周一发表的报告中指出，就业市场不景气的很大一个原因是，兼职工作和临时工作日益流行。
事实上，正是这一点将上两次衰退（即90年代初和2001年3个季度的衰退）联系在一起，使之有别于美国历史上其他大多数经济低迷期过后的正常状态。
报告指出，在本次复苏的前12个月中，美国经济失去了220,000个就业职位，而在上一次复苏期的第一年失去了211,000个就业职位。从历史上看，美国经济在衰退期正式结束后的第一年通常会增加200万个职位。
他们认为，就业人数不能增加不仅是失业性复苏的显著特症，也突出反映了美国企业适时用人的现象。
更少、更省、更快
在堪萨斯城联邦储备银行报告推出的这一周，经济学家们和市场可能又会收到一份提醒他们美国就业市场糟糕状况的报告。
周四美国劳工部(Labor Department)将公布6月份非农就业人口报告。分析师们预计，在5月份减少17,000个职位后，非农就业人数将基本保持稳定。但他们预计失业率将从5月份的6.1%上升至6.2%。
美国联邦储备银行的研究员们表示，临时工人的广泛使用是经济发生深刻变化的一部分，即所谓"新经济"的组成部分。目前，科学技术的使用令企业的反应速度更快，产量更高，他们可以利用电脑使库存符合需求，相应地使员工人数适应生产的需要。
自70年代初以来，临时工人数在全部劳动力人数的比例就几乎在不断上升。
报告指出，在1972年1月份，临时工人数占全部就业人数的比例不到0.5% 。到2001年初这一数字上升至3%左右，至2002年底下降到2.4%，即300万人左右。
事实上，在本次复苏和上次衰退之后的复苏阶段，经济在创造出临时职位的同时也在减少长期职位。
报告称，兼职工也占到劳动力市场的很大一部分，比例从1968年的14%上升至2002年的18%。兼职工数字是有所低估的，因为这一数字没有包括那些有其他工作而时间加起来接近全天工作时间的工人人数。
作者认为，临时工和兼职工比例的上升趋势代表了企业和部分员工的愿望。在竞争日益加剧，以及雇佣、辞退和提供福利的成本不断增加之下，企业希望雇佣更多的临时工。 另一方面，一些员工也出于各种原因（比如时间灵活及可获得不同工作经验）而对保持临时工地位越来越感兴趣。
有利有弊
最后斯科莱福特和辛总结到，企业适时用人的做法直接导致了复苏阶段的失业现象。
但这种做法也提高了经济的整体灵活性，使得衰退持续的时间更短且更温和。
报告指出，劳动力市场灵活性的增加对整体经济基本上是有利的，但是对员工本身而言则有利有弊。
报告称，目前还很难推断未来的复苏是否也将是伴随失业的复苏，但是有理由相信，适时用人的做法将持续下去。
