Interview: Tokyo market
>> it’s coming up on a quarter past in sydney. 12 past, to be exact. looks like a beautiful day at the opera house. early fog, remnants giving way to a sunny day and the high temperature, 24 degrees. welcome back to “ live,” 6:13 a.m. in hong kong. asian stocks rose in u.s. trading. higher oil prices lifted energy concerns like petrochina and b.h.p. billiton. taiwan’s united micron climbed after merrill boosted their rating on the stock. the a.d.r. up 11 cents at 3.37 last quote. the bony indexes with two of them up, japan a.d.r.’s south by .15%. the nikkei futures in chicago ended the session at 11,600, about 40 tips south of the other two markets . keep an eye on stocks in tokyo today amidst the release of the tankan out shortly this morning. mazda motor is recalling more than 67,000 minivans in the japanese market to fix faulty shift levers. that can be dangerous, you’ll be whirling around at 8,000 r.p.m. in first gear. sony has formed an l.c.d. venture with toyota to tap rising demand for flat panels used in digital cameras and camcorders. aeon will raise its stake in the operator of a home improfit store. the furniture retail’s full-year net income rose 12% to 8.7 billion. a quick look at other stocks on the focus list on the asian markets today, t.a.c. in thailand added 117,000 users in february,86% more than in the previous month and the philippine government will buy $38 million in shares of san miguel, the food and beverage company, less than half the stock it’s allowed to do so in the company’s rights offer. some analysts believe they may not be going for the whole shabang because of the government’s tight finances. qwest communications raised its takeover bid for m.c.i. to $9.07 billion, turning up the heat on m.c.i. to scrap an agreement to be purchased by verizon for a considerably lower price tag, $7.6 billion. qwest says the offer will be withdrawn by tuesday if m.c.i. doesn’t take it. qwest’s higher offer is the fourth increase in the month and a half battle with verizon. m.c.i. snubbed each of the prior proposals by qwest saying the merger with verizon makes a stronger company. m.c.i. shares rose 2% in new york trading on thursday. checking on world news, we’ll head to ron madison in tokyo. good morning, ron.
>> good morning, bernie. we’re hearing that pope john paul ii’s health has taken a turn for the worse. cnn quotes a vatican source as saying the pope has been administered last rites. a vatican spokesperson said the health started to deteriorate after he developed a higher fever, brought on by a urinary tract infection. the associated press described an alarming lowering of blood pressure that the pope is suffering. he made a brief appearance yesterday at the window of his vatican apartment. the pope has been receives some of his food via a feeding tube inserted through his nose. a decision apparently has been made not to return the pope to the hospital. we will keep you up to date on the latest developments on the health of the pope as headlines continue to cross today n.florida, terri schiavo has died 13 days after doctors removed the feeding tube that was sustaining her. 41-year-old schiavo became the focus of a national debate as her parents and husband fought over keeping her alive. schiavo had been able to care for herself―hadn’t been able to care for herself since her heart stopped in 1990. doctors say she was in a persistent vegetative state since then. michael schiavo petitioned courts for seven years to allow his wife to die, saying she wouldn’t have wanted to be kept alive artificially. an autopsy on schiavo is planned. u.s. president george w. bush says millions of americans are saddened by terri schiavo’s death.
>> laura and i extent our condolences to terri schiavo’s families.% i appreciate the example of grace and dignity they have displayed at a difficult time. i urge all those who honor terri schiavo to continue to work to build a culture of life where all americans are welcomed and valued and protected, especially those who live at the merc mercy of others.
>> bush reiterated that in cases where there is serious doubt, he says “the presumption should be in favor of life.” a u.s. presidential commission says america’s spy agencies were “dead wrong” about the military threat posed by saddam hussein’s regime in iraq and says the u.s. knows disturbingly little about other nation’s weapons programs and threats posed by adversaries. i’ll have another update at the top of the hour.
>> thank you. coming up, the u.s. dollar fell against the euro and yen on signs that the fed may not be raising rates in the future by the same thresholds traders initially expected. we’ll speak with a strategist in melbourne, victoria, about what he expects greenspan and the fomc to do next.
在线播报
Listen Market briefing --- Bernie (slow)
Crude Oil --- Su (fast)
in a couple of hours, we’ll speak with craig ferguson from the australian new zealand bank where the sentiment towards the yen has been hurt by a barrage of reports out of japan earlier this week, weak industrial production, household spending and the jobless rate weaker than expected. and we’ll speak with lucas chow, executive vice president at singtel. goldman pushed up its prediction on crude oil. we’ll have more on oil in a few moments from new york. looking at the major session on wall street. the dow fell .35%. as for stocks individually that moved on the session today, a.i.g., american international group, one of our key focuses yesterday, the biggest loser among dow components after their debt rate was cut one level by moody’s and standard & poor’s. the world’s biggest insurance company faces higher financing costs and lower earnings. confidence among japan’s big manufacturers probably did not rise in march from the previous three months. economists we surveyed say the bank of japan’s tankan report will show the quarterly index was unchanged from march of last year, reflecting continued concerns that a recovery in the economy may not be durable. manufacturers will also probably say they plan to cut spending in the fiscal year starting today. this is april fool’s day, by the way. still, some manufacturers are optimistic about their outlook.
>> demand is continuing beyond our previous assumptions. this will probably last through 2005, especially for high-quality steel we excel at. these conditions will continue as demand diversifies and higher quality is needed.
>> the bank of japan is due to release the report at 8:50 a.m. this morning in tokyo, or 7:50 in hong kong. we’ll get reaction from jesper koll, the merrill lynch economist in japan. a report showed u.s. jobless claims unexpectedly rose and inflation remain unchanged. currency traders took the figures to mean that the fed may not need to speed up its pace of rate hikes to curb inflation. charles schwab expects rates to rise as high as 4%.
>> the federalable discount rate is 2.75, i guess it is, and it will probably go up to 4%, which impacts other rates.
>> the dollar is currently 107.1750 against the yen and the euro picture with 129-- 1.2963. the yen started rising against the dollar yesterday. yesterday marked the end of the financial year so a number of japanese companies with overseas units started repatriating or sending back their money for the book closing for the 31st of march. for the dollar, we have some smuver in the system. the jobless claims, if that tickles your fancy. there’s the yen again and the dollar heading for its best quarter since 2001 against the euro. u.s. jobless claims, 250,000 last week, about 30,000 ahead of expectations. that’s the highest figure for first-time initial jobless claims since january. the figures come before the employment report, jobs creation report due out later tonight. many eyes watching that. our survey calls for about 215,000 jobs created in march for a second month. the gremlins are out of the system, let’s see if the next one is in tact. yes, indeed, personal spending rose .5% in february, in line with views. robert schiller, economy professor at yale university, says consumers are spending now because they think prices will go higher.
>> the definition of a bubble is a time when prices are supported by the expectations for future price increases and i think that’s what’s happening. people see prices going up and they think i’m going to buy even though it’s expensive and it’s going to go up more.
>> commerce also reported incomes rose less than expected in the month of february. treasuries rose after those government reports indicated inflation held steady. here’s the benchmark 10-year. the yield indicated at 4.48, the price up 17/32. crude oil rose and gas and home heating oil futures surged to records in april. who’s using home heating oil. helping kick off today’s rally, the prediction of analysts at goldman that crude oil futures could reach $105 a barrel. oh, my! su keenan has more on the story. what were they on when they made that prediction, su?
>> well, this is not that far from predictions they’ve made late last year and certainly that number had reverberations in the trading pits today. the goldman sachs analysts saying the oil markets have entered the early stages of a super spike period which could drive prices dramatically higher than previous estimates. they say record prices have failed to curtail surging fuel consumption. as a result, they are raising their upper limit for oil prices from $80 a barrel to $105. ed silliere with energy merchant international futures, says the call grabbed the attention of the entire oil trading community.
>> almost like a self-fulfilling prophecy at that point. they tell all their customers that they believe it’s going to $105, all their customers buy through them and they help drive the price higher. so the trading community will take that and try to jump in front.
>> at one point in new york, oil futures up $2 a barrel. there’s concern u.s. refiners cannot make enough fuels from surging crude supplies. analysts say there’s plenty of crude around, but not enough refining capacity to process it. opec is pumping as much oil as it can and last week the u.s. produceed as much oil last year, creating a new range.
>> the day of the $30-a-barrel oil have come and gone. you’ll have pullbacks on news and volatility related on news items and political events, but with regard to oil, the chinese plan on building more miles of highway than the u.s. has currently in the next 10 years. boone pickens said it would take something like a billion barrels of oil.
>> new york crude futures surged to a record price of $57.60 a barrel on march 17 and are now up 27% year to date. back to you.
>> the way oil is going right now, su, my mom has her hummer h2 on the market for sale. thanks a lot, su keenan in new york. coming up, terri schiavo, the brain-damaged florida woman, who became the focus of national debate, has died. that story is coming up.
