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Interview: AG Edwards---Keller, Mark---Chief Investment Officer

>> the fed holds all the cards this year. its impact on the market is extraordinary, so says mark keller with a.g. edwards. mark joins us from st. louis on a day which wall street was paying attention to what fed officials are saying about inflation and rates. welcome, mark.

>> thank you.

>> lay out the scenarios for us. what happens to stocks if first the fed stops at 5% and then if the fed pauses but resumes tightening toward the end of the year?

>> if the fed were to stop at 5%, i think the market would celebrate. right now, i think a lot of market participants are concerned―and i’m one of them―concerned that fed tightening will result in slower growth later this year, maybe into 2007. any indication that the fed is going to stop i think would result in immediate improvement in the p/e ratio for the market as more rapid growth ahead is expected. if they were to start tightening again or if they keep tightening through the summer, i think, frankly, i think the market would take that badly.

>> let me ask you, mark, it’s interesting, we see stocks continue to rise. today’s no exception. despite this climate of rising interest rates. is that surprising to you?

>> not entirely. the economy is actually going pretty well right now but we have to remember that the fed action and monetary policy operates with long lags. and the tightening that we’re getting, you know, right now, are going to have effects late this year and into next. in addition to that, though, today we got some fed officials saying inflation is relatively moderate which gave optimism to the market that perhaps they’re going to stop soon. my view is if they think inflation is under control, why are they still tightening?

>> you have been decreasing your stock allocation a couple of times this year, you’re down to 65% stocks. so you’re talking about this lag effect. are you saying perhaps―i don’t want to put words into your mouth―but it sounds that you don’t feel the tightening activity has filtered into the equities market ?

>> not fully into the equities markets or the economy although the equities markets are forward-looking. they don’t yet foresee meaningful slowdown, although everyone’s talking about it. investors are still basically optimistic. i’m concerned that the fed is already a little too tight. if inflation’s not a big concern, i fear that the slowdown that they’re going to cause, all things being equal, is going to bring some pessimism into the market later this year. of course, all that could stop if they were to pause in the relatively near future.

>> what do you think your next move will be? your outlook is so much based on the fed as you’ve told us. do you think you’ll be increasing your stock exposure or decreasing it? what will your next move be?

>> right now, we’re at our benchmark allocation. so it’s a neutral, neither negative nor positive. as i’ve pointed out in past conversations, i think at times where we’re at inflection points in the tightening easing cycle is when the fed’s impact on the market is particularly acute. i think a lot will depend upon what they do. however, one thing we probably will be doing is as long rates move up, we’ll get friendlier towards the bond market and we did with our recent change, we took a little bit out of stocks in that allocation and put it in bonds.

>> do you think bonds have bottomed?

>> we don’t think they’ve bottomed but we are getting to a place of better value in bonds where the downside risk we think is more reasonable. we don’t―i would agree with the comments several fed governors said today, is that inflation really is not spinning out of control and given that fact and the fact that rates in the long bonds are more attractive makes us think there’s better value, less risk.

>> you did increase your bond exposure but are still underweight in bonds?

>> that’s correct. we are 25% on our bond allocation, which is up 5%. our benchmark is 35% so we’re still 10 points under, still shorter than our benchmark there. but i think we’re still at a place right now where there’s been so much pessimism in the bond market , a rally from here in the not-too-distant future would not surprise me.

>> a rally in treasuries, longer end of the curve?

>> probably treasuries, probably out at the benchmark 10-year note level.

>> i didn’t get your stock picks. i’m curious if you were buying stocks right now, what asset classes or industries would you see the most value in?

>> we’re seeing best value -- this has been a common theme for us, but best value in the large cap, particularly major mega-cap u.s. stocks, particularly in the noncyclical areas such as consumer nondurables and healthcare and the like. these stocks are going sideways for a long time but the downside risk even if the fed overtightens i think is relatively modest and i think they’re good candidates for p/e expansion, as well. in the equity world, that’s where i’d bedeaded.

>> that’s where we’ll have to leave it. thanks a lot. mark keller is chairman of investment strategy at a.g. edwards. is it a timber company or a reit? international paper sells more than five million acres of fost lands to private investors. what is luring buyer into the forest industry? we’ll find out why lumber and paper companies are splitting up.
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Listen Market briefing -- Lori (fast)
NYSE -- Deb (fast)
Crude oil -- Su (fast)
Nasdaq -- June (slow)

welcome, from world headquarters in new york city. i’m lori rothman. this is bloomberg “after the bell.” we have breaking news from tenet healthcare. first, straight to the settling numbers. a rally today, dow jones industrials closing higher by 57 points, caterpillar, 3m, exxon-mobil leading the way. energy was still at $66 a barrel there, accounting for the gains and exxon more than likely. the s&p up eight points, 1305. financials, including banks as well as energy and the transport sector stronger today. and the nasdaq composite index closing at a five-year high. now on to the news from tenet healthcare, a federal judge declared a mistrial in a criminal case against the tenet subsidiary, accused of paying san diego doctors to spur refer referrals to a hospital. tenet shares were suspended before the announcement. they closed up more than 8% to close at $7.90 a share. the market today posting a gain. interest-rate-sensitive stocks among the biggest gainers, interestingly enough, deb, on a day when we heard from five fed officials.

>> with all that talk from fed officials, the one thing that traders came away with, that inflation, at least for today, not much of a concern. a lot of times these thoughts have been changing on a daily basis but today, firm that inflation concerns are falling by the wayside. it gives us ideas that the fed will not be raising interest rates as much as expected but still we had the yield on the 10-year note near that four-year high. and some of the leaders in today’s session might have been a little bit surprising because they were interest-rate-sensitive stocks and with the 10-year yield still trading at those lofty levels as treasuries fell. that was maybe a little bit surprising but the big view and the big thing traders can take away from today is that likely those interest rates are going to be stable and bond yields may be in the future may be a little more stable so the leaders, financials, banks and utilities and financials, banks and utilities, all interest-rate-sensitive. crude oil dropping to $66.23 a barrel. that as we expect the inventory reports from tomorrow to reflect more supplies. utilities performing quite well. a.e.s. saying fourth-quarter profit rising 75% on higher electricity prices in brazil and argentina. amex broker/dealer index at a record in today’s session, up 19%. a lot of broker/dealers coming in at records. banks performing well. and you saw even with crude oil falling, energy stocks were some of the best performers in today’s session. transports, of course, also at a record. what led the transports once again, it was the railroads. back to you.

>> thanks for that. as we said, falling oil prices, a factor for stock traders today. crude oil prices fell on speculation u.s. inventories are growing. among the other energy movers after crude oil, which dropped 51 cents a barrel today, let’s go ahead and look at gasoline. unleaded gas up 1.73%. heating oil down .34% and natural gas futures off 2.5%. more on what is driving the decline in crude oil prices. analysts say there’s a break in the recent buying spree as inventories await the latest government report on supplies. su keenan has the story and a preview of tomorrow’s inventory data.

>> that is the focus of this week’s trading and analysts surveyed by bloomberg predict it will show a million-barrel gain in crude oil supplies as of last week, to be the side effect weekly gain in two months and the highest level of supply in seven years. area trading’s ira eckstein says based on this abundant inventory, prices should be trading in the $50’s but the current mood of the market supports higher prices.

>> the people i’m speaking to are still looking to buy dips in the market and any healthy pullback, they’ll come in and scale downgating. so it is overbought but every time we come back, it rallies back up.

>> gasoline futures will likely steal the spotlight tomorrow. a report of the―a repeat of the previous’s week’s -- previous week’s unexpected prunge plunge in supply would spook investors.

>> there’s this debate about oil production and capacity, continue to be out of sync. and remember, if prices get too high, there will be a demand impact. we saw it with $70-a-barrel oil, we saw it with $3 gasoline at the pump. consumers have to react.

>> the department of energy’s weekly report out tomorrow morning at 10:30.

>> thanks, su. june grasso standing by at times square at the nasdaq marketsite. looks like we have gains for the nasdaq today and google above $400 a share for the first time in a little while.

>> what led the nasdaq, the group that performed the best, the financials, jumping after those words from the federal officials about suggestions that inflation is in check. also, the transportation index coming in second as far as the groups are concerned after the price of oil dropped. it was the computer index that really mirrored what happened at the nasdaq today with the push and pull of the stocks. let’s look at the stocks that were leading. you mentioned google, which was above $400 a share, closed above $400 a share for the first time since february 1. there is speculation it may add a music download service to challenge apple’s itunes. microsoft up .3%. it won its biggest contract ever with the u.s. census bureau for half a million handsets and microsoftmicrosoft expects to almost triple to $1 billion its mobile unit sales, a challenge to research in motion’s blackberry. analysts had their calls on computer shares. you saw apple, down 2.3%. u.b.s. cut apple computer’s price estimate to $95 from $100 saying that apple experienced weakness in march p.c. and ipod sales and will be range-bound until the new products can prove they can drive the shares harder. u.b.s. cut intel’s price and based on its expectations for lower average selling prices and the intel drop pushed it today to a three-year low for the third day in a row. checkpoint also one of the lowest computer shares. back to you.

>> thanks for that. on the deal front today, international paper is raising $6.1 billion in the biggest sale ever of u.s. forest land. connell mcshane is here with details.

>> the details, basically, there’s more than five million acres of forest land unloaded by international paper. it’s selling it to a couple of investment groups. we talked to the company’s c.e.o. about what he hopes to do with $6 billion.

>> we’re going to pay down some debt, return some value to share owners and take some of the proceeds and reinvest them to build a stronger, better international paper both in north america and outside of north america.

>> first he says he plans to pay down debt. at the end of last quarter, the debt total stood at $12.2 billion. so $6 billion deal here could take a chunk out of that. then you have the prospect of returning value to shareholders. you might see a buyback in the not-so-distant future, according to one analyst today. j.p. morgan’s claudia shank could you could―said you could see the company buy back stock in the coming months. the stock up nearly 30% since the middle of last october. what the sale of forest land represents is a chance to concentrate on i.p.’s name-sake business, paper, international paper. it’s also a chance to sell an asset performing quite well. institutional investors have been more intorested in forest land as endowment funds from universities, harvard and yale, seeing this as an attractive way to diversify. a number of these companies have been selling these assets including weyerhaeuser and louisiana-pacific. but what the one key distinction is, today is the biggest u.s. sale. resource management from alabama paying $5 billion for its stake and timber star, a group from atlanta, picking up the other billion. most of the land is in the southern part of the united states, places like texas and louisiana as well as a forest in michigan. that’s more than five million acres, bigger than the entire state of massachusetts.

>> thank you. we’ll have more on timber and what investment prospects are out there with pimm fox coming up later in the show. also today, shares of computer sciences surged after the company put itself up for sale and announced 5,000 job cuts. the company’s the fifth largest computer services provider in the u.s. and it said it received recent expressions of interest to its offer to sell itself. shares of the company have gone up 30% since mid october when reports first surfaced of a possible sale. buyout companies are showing renewed interests in services providers following the $11 billion purchase of sungard data systems last august. we’ll look at alternatives with mark keller of a.g. edwards. find out why he thinks the safest place for long-term investors are large cap u.s. stocks.
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