Amid Tension With U.S., China Faces Protectionist Surge at Home
BEIJING -- When Chinese President Hu Jintao visits the U.S. in mid-April, he is sure to field tough questions about Beijing's trade and economic policies amid a wave of rising protectionism. But he also is grappling with a similar backlash at home.
Amid one of the longest and fastest growth streaks of any modern economy, China is wrestling with concerns from a rising wealth gap to corruption to environmental damage. But the latest uproar has turned on foreigners, targeting the many outside investors that have piled into China and prospered -- even while fueling much of the country's growth.
"Since last year, foreign companies have been fiercely buying up Chinese companies, including some core companies," said Li Shuguang, a vice dean at the Chinese University of Politics and Law in Beijing. "Foreign capital is so strong, a lot of Chinese companies have just collapsed."
The debate parallels the resurgence of protectionist sentiment in the U.S., which has been driven in part by concerns over China's clout. Last year, China's state-owned Cnooc Corp. abandoned a bid for U.S.-based Unocal Corp. amid a political outcry. More recently, U.S. policy makers have complained that China is refusing to allow its currency, the yuan, to appreciate quickly enough, fueling a flood of cheap Chinese exports and aggravating a trade imbalance.
The U.S. reported a 2005 trade deficit with China of $201.62 billion, up more than 20% from 2004. China, which counts trade differently, says it was much narrower. Yesterday, the U.S. and European Union filed a trade case at the World Trade Organization to protest China's import tariffs on foreign-made car parts.
Meanwhile, the debate inside China is causing the government to rethink its approach. In banking, for instance, some economists and state officials argue that the government has sold foreign stakes in its major state-run commercial banks too cheaply. Some negotiations, including an effort led by Citigroup Inc. to take an 85% stake in Guangdong Development Bank, have dragged on for months as regulators fret over the potential fallout of further inroads by foreigners.
Also drawing scrutiny is a $375 million bid by Carlyle Group, a prominent U.S.-based private-equity firm, for an 85% stake in state-run Xugong Group Construction Machinery Co., a big player in China's construction-machinery sector. "People are asking more questions [about the transaction] to ensure there are sufficient measures to protect the interests of local players and protect national brands, which is understandable," said a person close to the deal.
In another case, Hangzhou Advance Gearbox Group Co., a maker of marine jet-propulsion systems that claims 80% of the Chinese and Southeast Asian markets, has said it halted talks with Germany's ZF Group late last year over worries about its motivations. ZF Group, a competitor of Hangzhou Advance, had been in talks for three years for a 70% stake in the Chinese state-owned company.
"We understand that what these foreign companies actually covet is the Chinese market we now occupy," said Xu Jiangang, head of Hangzhou Advance's general affairs office.
Recently, the controversy has spilled into public view. This month, representatives of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, a national representative body with limited powers, seized on a rumored deal involving Caterpillar Inc. to complain about foreign domination in some sectors and the disappearance of Chinese brands.
Caterpillar refused to comment on that transaction, but a spokesman rejected China's broader concerns, adding that a move by either the U.S. or China to "turn inward...is not a good thing." Among a range of possible deals, Caterpillar has been in talks to strengthen ties to Shanghai Diesel Engine Co.
The concentration of industries in foreign hands has become a common theme. An oft-quoted 2004 report from the State Administration of Industry and Commerce, for instance, notes that Coca-Cola Co. dominates China's domestic soft-drink market and Eastman Kodak Co. holds a 50% share of the film sector.
Meeting with newspaper editors earlier this month, Ma Kai, head of the China's most powerful economic agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, pointedly noted that only 23 U.S. businesses were operating in China in 1980, with combined investment of $120 million. As of last year, he said, there were 49,000, with combined investment of $51 billion. "We should first make clear that the U.S. has benefited from this growth," he said.
Few expect a significant rollback of China's 27-year drive toward a market-driven system. The country has weathered fundamental questioning of the role of economic reforms before, in the 1980s and again in the early 1990s.
But China's latest reform crisis could weaken Mr. Hu's ability -- and his appetite -- to tackle issues of U.S. concern during his visit. He plans to meet with President Bush, and likely will bring some offerings, possibly including a government contract for Microsoft Corp. software. But he is unlikely to deliver much of what Washington wants, such as allowing the yuan to appreciate more sharply.
In some ways, the 63-year-old Mr. Hu faces a more complex situation than his predecessors, as China becomes more like the U.S., with greater tolerance of dissenting views and organized interest groups. Resistance to some market-oriented changes is mostly driven by special interests such as disenfranchised farmers, private businessmen and ministries trying to hold on to their powers. At the national legislature's March meeting, lobbying by interest groups picked up markedly.
Among more than 1,000 bills proposed by delegates were several aimed at restricting foreign access to domestic markets. Wang Tian, a delegate from the southern province of Hunan who heads his own chain store, submitted a "service-trade safeguard bill," which would protect Chinese companies in the retail, financial and services sectors.
"Almost all supermarkets over 10,000 square meters in coastal provinces are dominated by Carrefour, Wal-Mart and Metro, and many remaining [Chinese-owned] ones are in talks with foreign retailers," Mr. Wang said, referring to the French, U.S. and German retail chains, respectively.
Meanwhile, the State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, which oversees the country's key state-run companies, and other agencies are working on guidelines to govern mergers and acquisitions of Chinese firms with well-known brands or significant market share. The National Development and Reform Commission says a target for regulation will be foreigners.
"Foreign investment has played an active role in tapping idle state assets, optimizing industrial structure and promoting technological progress, but it has also caused serious problems like over-concentrated market share in some sectors," the commission's spokesman said in a written response to questions.
During the country's last crisis over the economy, in the early 1990s, the leading critics of market changes were other high-ranking officials who believed capitalism was wrong for China. The late Deng Xiaoping, then the paramount leader, stamped out opposition in 1992 on a sweeping tour of southern China, where the free market was thriving.
Like Mr. Deng, Mr. Hu and Premier Wen Jiabao have asked China to support reforms. At a news conference after the legislature's March meeting, Mr. Wen made a rare televised appeal. "We must consistently and unwaveringly press ahead on the road of reform," he said. "To backpedal offers no way out."
At the same time, there are some signs of government indecision. Last year, when securities regulators proposed freezing foreign applications to set up joint-venture securities companies, the State Council, or cabinet, solicited the opinions of other agencies. But when the agencies disagreed, it failed to make a ruling, effectively allowing securities regulators to implement the freeze last December, according to one former official.
In some cases, lobbyists are using the media to win attention from China's government. Lu Yansun, a former deputy minister of the now-defunct Ministry of Machine-Building Industry, was enraged to read a short newspaper article on the fate of state-run Xibei Bearing Co.'s profitable train bearings business. Xibei used to have a 25% share of China's train bearings market and its own "NXZ" brand, but it effectively disappeared from the sector after that business was sold to German bearings manufacturer INA-Holding Schaeffler KG in 2003.
Mr. Lu suggested that China Industry News, a paper affiliated with the semi-official China Machinery Industry Federation, investigate. The result was a series charging that foreign investors -- including Caterpillar and the U.S. agriculture and forestry-equipment maker Deere & Co. -- have taken over key companies in the capital-goods sector, only to wipe out their brands and seize market share.
Mr. Lu and He Guangyuan, a former machinery industry minister, also wrote a letter to the State Council. Mr. Lu said several top leaders responded that a "set of administration rules...should be established."
In February, the council unveiled a number of policies to support the sector, including a rule that domestically made equipment should account for 60% of total equipment purchases for key projects funded by central and local governments. Vice Premier Zeng Peiyan this month said the cabinet will issue a set of preferential policies to rejuvenate the sector, reflecting "national will," according to the official Xinhua News Agency.
中美同病 保护主义是本难念的经
中国国家主席胡锦涛将于4月中旬访美，在美国一浪高过一浪的贸易保护主义情绪面前，他肯定会遭遇与中国贸易和经济政策有关的大量尖锐提问。不过，在他的后院中国也存在同样棘手的难题。
中国经济的腾飞是现代世界所有经济体当中增长持续时间最长、且增长速度最快的一个。在前进的道路上，中国不断遇到贫富差距、腐败以及环保等种种挑战。但最新一轮的躁动却瞄准了外国人，那些蜂拥而入中国并由此致富的许多外国投资者──哪怕他们在自己致富的同时也推动了中国经济的飞速发展。
“从去年开始，外资企业一直在积极收购中国公司，包括一些核心公司，”中国政法大学(Chinese University of Politics and Law)研究生院副院长李曙光说，外资实力非常强大，很多中国公司只能败下阵来。
中国的争论又恰逢美国保护主义势力的抬头，后者形成的部分原因在于美国人对中国势力日渐扩大的重重担忧。去年，中国国有的中海石油(CNOOC Corp.)被迫放弃了对美国加州联合石油公司(Unocal Corp.)的收购计划，就是因为遭遇了美国国内强大的政治压力。最近，美国国会的议员们一直在批评中国拒不让人民币迅速足量升值，导致大量廉价中国产品涌入美国市场，加剧了两国间的贸易失衡状况。
美国公布2005年对中国贸易逆差达到2016.2亿美元，较2004年增长逾20%。采用不同方法计算贸易额的中国则表示，两国逆差要小得多。周四，美国和欧盟(European Union)就中国汽车零配件进口关税问题向世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization)提出申诉。
与此同时，中国国内的辩论也促使政府开始重新思考。例如，针对国内银行业的改革，一些经济学家和政府官员纷纷表示，政府向外资出售国有大型商业银行部分股权的价格太低了。有些交易的谈判，包括花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)牵头收购广东发展银行(Guangdong Development Bank) 85%股权的计划，就被一拖数月之久，因为监管机构对外资进一步参股可能导致的后果焦虑重重。
美国知名的私人资本运营公司凯雷集团(Carlyle Group)斥资3.75亿美元收购徐工机械(Xugong Group Construction Machinery Co.) 85%股权的交易也引起了人们的关注。徐工机械是中国国有的大型建筑机械生产企业。某知情人士称，人们对交易提出了很多问题，希望能确保协议中有足够的措施保护国内厂商的利益不受损害，保护国内品牌，这些都很容易理解。
再比如，杭州前进齿轮箱集团有限公司(Hangzhou Advance Gearbox Group Co., 简称：杭齿集团)曾表示，因怀疑谈判对方的动机，公司去年年底停止了与德国ZF Group就转让杭齿集团70%股权的谈判。杭齿集团是大型国有企业，主要生产船用喷气推进系统，据称占有中国和东南亚市场80%的份额。德国ZF Group是该公司的竞争对手，三年前就开始与杭齿集团协商入股事宜。
“我们知道这些外国公司真正垂涎的是我们占据的中国市场，”该公司办公室主任徐建刚说。
最近，这些争论开始进入公众视野。3月份，全国政协(Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference)的代表就传言涉及卡特彼勒公司(Caterpillar Inc.)的一桩交易提出质疑，指责外国公司控制了中国某些行业，并为国内品牌的消失打抱不平。
卡特彼勒拒绝就此发表评论，但一位公司发言人驳斥了中国公众的担忧，还表示不论美国还是中国，转而内向发展都不是好事。在一系列可能达成的交易中，卡特彼勒一直在与上海柴油机股份有限公司（Shanghai Diesel Engine Co., 简称：上柴股份）协商加强双方合作的有关事宜。
部分行业逐步由外国品牌占据已经成了普遍现象。经常被援引的国家工商总局(State Administration of Industry and Commerce)2004年一份报告就指出，可口可乐(Coca-Cola Co.)占据了中国软饮料市场的主导地位，伊士曼-柯达(Eastman Kodak Co.)则拥有中国胶片市场的半壁江山。
国家发展和改革委员会(National Development and Reform Commission)主任马凯在本月初会晤报纸编辑时特别指出，1980年在中国经营业务的美国公司只有23家，投资总额只有1.20亿美元；到去年已经增至49,000家企业，投资总额达510亿美元。“我们首先应该明确，美国公司在这个增长阶段受益匪浅，”他说。
几乎没有人认为中国长达27年的市场经济改革会开倒车，80年代和90年代，中国两次顶住了针对经济改革作用这一根本性问题的强大质疑压力。
但最近这场改革危机可能会削弱胡锦涛在访美期间面对美国保护主义情绪的力量和兴趣。他计划会晤布什(Bush)总统，可能会带来几笔交易，例如向微软(Microsoft Corp.)软件发出的政府合同等。但在大幅提升人民币币值方面，他不太可能提供多少美国人想要的东西。
从某些方面来说，随著中国在某些方面越来越像美国、对不同意见和有组织的利益团体的容忍度越来越大，63岁的胡锦涛面临的局面比他的前任要复杂得多。对一些市场化改革的阻力大多来自被剥夺了权利的农民、私人企业主和希望留住手中权利的政府部门。在3月份召开的全国人大会议上，利益团体的游说活动明显增多。
在与会代表提出的1,000多份提案里，有几份提出限制外资进入国内市场。来自湖南的代表、私营连锁店店主王填提交了一份要求立法保护国内零售、金融和服务业的提案。
王填在提案里指出，在沿海城市，营业面积超过10,000平方米的超市不是家乐福(Carrefour)、沃尔玛(Wal-Mart)的，就是麦德龙(METRO)的，余下的许多中国超市也在与外资零售商谈判。王填提到的这几家超市分别来自法国、美国和德国。
与此同时，中国国有资产监管委员会(Assets Supervision and Administration Commission)及其他相关部委正在研究有关并购中国有知名品牌、或有较大市场占有率的企业的监管规定。国家发展和改革委员会表示，规定针对的目标之一就是外资。
发改委发言人在回答记者提问的书面材料中说，外资在盘活闲置国有资产、优化产业结构和促进技术进步方面发挥了积极作用，但它同时也带来了一些问题，比如，导致某些领域市场过于集中等等。
在九十年代初中国经济领域发生的那场危机中，反对市场化改革的主要力量是其他一些高层官员，他们认为资本主义不适合中国国情。1992年，当时的中国最高领导人邓小平在考察了市场经济相对活跃的南方城市深圳之后发表了重要讲话，压住了反对者的声浪。
胡锦涛和温家宝与当年的邓小平一样都鼓励支持改革。在人大会议结束后召开的对全国直播的新闻发布会上，温家宝呼吁说，中国必须坚定不移地继续沿著改革的道路前进。后退是没有出路的。
但是，中央政府也表现出犹豫不决的一面。去年，在证券监管部门提出暂停外资在华成立合资证券公司后，国务院当即征求其他部委的意见。据一位前政府官员透露，在其他部委表示反对后，国务院却没有作出结论，使证券监管部门去年12月得以实际实施“冻结令”。
有时，利益团体会借助媒体的力量赢得政府的关注。曾担任原机械工业部副部长的陆燕荪在看到报纸登载的一篇有关国营西北齿轮厂(Xibei Bearing Co.)机车齿轮分厂的文章后勃然大怒。
过去，该厂生产的机车齿轮占全国的四分之一，它还拥有NXZ品牌，但在该分厂2003年卖给德国齿轮制造商INA-Holding Schaeffler KG之后，这个牌子就从市场上消失了。
陆燕荪要求中国机械工业联合会(Machinery Industry Federation)下面的《中国工业报》调查此事。该报后来刊发了一组连续报导，称外国投资者已控制了中国装备制造业领域的重要企业，他们撤掉这些企业自己的品牌，只想利用它们已占据的市场。
陆燕荪和原机械工业部部长何光远还联名给国务院写信。Lu说，有几位国家领导人回信说，应该制定一整套管理规定。
今年二月，国务院颁布了一系列支持装备工业的政策，其中一条规定，由中央和地方政府出资建设的项目，其国产设备采购额不得低于设备采购总额的60%。据中国官方媒体新华社报导，国务院副总理曾培炎本月表示，国务院将制定一系列优惠政策振兴装备行业，以反映“国家意志”。
