Doha in the Doldrums
The noble intentions of the Doha Round of trade talks might be frustrated, but the promise of trade liberalization is not dead. In the World Trade Organization meeting that begins in Geneva tomorrow, trade ministers will have a chance to reinvigorate the WTO's developmental agenda. They will need to provide a clear direction on the shape of the final agreement on unresolved issues such as tariff levels and agricultural subsidies. Failure to meet yet another deadline will inevitably raise questions about the WTO's relevance in an era when many countries are meeting the challenges of globalization through alternative routes such as regional trade agreements.
Three-fourths of WTO members today are developing countries, and it is only natural that their concerns should occupy center stage in the negotiations. Globalization has entailed substantial restructuring of their economies, and lack of resources has prevented many developing countries from gaining meaningful market access for their products. The Doha Round was launched as an opportunity to address these past inequities, as well as meet future challenges. The central challenge before us now is how we can restore the development dimension to its rightful place in the negotiations.
Around 70% of the world's poor live in rural areas. That makes it important to handle sensitively the question of how agricultural trade should be integrated into the global trading system. Three broad issues need to be addressed in the agricultural negotiations, based on the Doha Round mandate. The first is developed countries' huge agricultural subsidies, both for domestic production and export. These distort trade and threaten the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of poor farmers in developing countries. The second is developed countries' high and frequently non-transparent tariff regimes, which block some developing countries' products from entering their markets. The third is structural and resource constraints in developing countries' agricultural sectors, which often render them uncompetitive and unable to meet the core concerns of food and livelihood security and rural development needs.
Negotiations thus far have given little evidence that we are meaningfully addressing these issues. Some developed countries like the U.S. and the European Union have pledged to lower their heavy agricultural subsidy levels, but there is still a huge gap between their commitments and actual implementation. Regarding the opening of markets, a middle ground is evident, but the road to travel is still long. Tariffs, the only instrument available to developing countries to address their livelihood and food security concerns, continue to be viewed through the prism of commercial considerations by some, although the Doha mandate called for the attainment of goals more significant than pure profit alone.
In the area of industrial tariffs, the current impasse relates to efforts by developed countries to rewrite the Doha Round developmental mandate. Since the completion of the Uruguay round, many developing countries have brought down their applied tariffs significantly below the "bound" levels that they are entitled to apply. But developed countries, in general, have not. Developed countries are now basing their Doha-round tariff reduction proposals on current applied levels. This would lead to completely asymmetrical results, requiring developing countries to make larger overall reductions than developed countries. To put the negotiations back on track in Geneva this month, trade ministers will have to negotiate tariff cuts on the basis of bound levels, and the mandated principle of "less than full reciprocity in reduction commitments" will have to be faithfully adhered to.
Services reform is one of the pillars of the Doha Round, but there is a huge imbalance in commitment to it between developed and developing WTO member nations. In particular need of attention are the Mode 4 liberalizations, which allow skilled workers to temporarily reside and work in other countries. The Mode 4 issue has become unnecessarily enmeshed in immigration sensitivities in a number of developed countries. All that is being sought through "Mode 4" is to improve services world-wide, by making temporary workers more mobile.
The negotiations so far have not witnessed much progress in resolving these glaring asymmetries. On the other hand, many developing countries have, through their own liberalization initiatives, provided substantial new market access. For example, India, has opened practically every sector of its economy -- except nuclear energy and gambling -- to varying degrees of foreign direct investment. The extent to which this liberalization will be guaranteed will depend on the extent to which developing country interests are met.
The real challenge before the WTO this month is to redeem its mandate and honor the development promise of Doha. The upcoming negotiations provide us with a unique opportunity to place the global trading system on a more sustainable basis, a basis that recognizes the aspirations of the world's poor and sends a strong message that we are united in tackling global problems. To miss this opportunity would be nothing short of catastrophic.
Mr. Nath is India's minister for Commerce and Industry.
陷入僵局的多哈回合
多哈回合贸易谈判的美好初衷或许要面临挫折，但是贸易自由化的承诺依然没有失去生命力。在世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization, WTO)即将从周四开始的会议中，各国贸易部长有望为WTO的多哈发展议程注入新的活力。他们必须为关税水平以及农业补贴等问题的最终解决确立方向。如果多哈回合再无法在新期限内取得应有的成果，无疑会使外界对WTO在当今时代的实际作用产生质疑。现在，许多国家正通过地区贸易协议等途径应对全球化的挑战。
WTO成员国中有四分之三为发展中国家，谈判时只有以他们关注的问题为中心才是理所当然的。全球化已使发展中国家的经济结构发生巨大转变，由于资源匮乏，很多发展中国家的产品难以有效进入其他市场。多哈回合谈判的启动为解决过去的不平衡状况、迎接未来的挑战提供了一个难得的机会。现在，我们面临的重要挑战便是：如何将发展的使命重新摆到正确的位置上。
全球约70%的贫困人口生活在农村地区。因此，如何将农业贸易融入到全球贸易体系中成为我们要解决的重要问题。根据多哈协议，在农业谈判中应当解决三个广泛议题。首先是关于发达国家对国内农业产品以及出口农产品的巨额补贴。这些补贴扭曲了正常贸易，并且威胁到发展中国家数亿贫苦农民的生计。其次是发达国家的高额关税以及缺乏透明度的关税体系，这些关税阻碍了发展中国家的产品进入它们的市场。最后一点是发展中国家农业的结构问题以及资源限制，这些问题使发展中心国家处于竞争劣势，甚至无法满足他们在食品、生活保障以及农村发展方面的基本需求。
然而，到目前为止多哈回合谈判在解决这些问题方面没有取得任何实质性进展。美国以及欧盟(European Union)等发达国家和地区曾保证降低高额农业补贴，但是它们的承诺与落实行动仍然相差甚远。在开放市场方面，解决问题的方法非常明确，但是最终达成一致的道路依然漫长。关税是发展中国家解决生计问题和保障食物的唯一工具，但是有些国家仍然从商业考虑的错误角度看待这一措施。不过多哈协议呼吁，实现发展目标比单纯考虑利润更加重要。
在工业关税问题上，当前的谈判僵局与发达国家要求重新拟定多哈发展框架不无关系。在乌拉圭回合结束后，许多发展中国家将关税大幅调低至“限制”水平之下。但是发达国家整体上却没有履行承诺。现在，发达国家要以目前使用的关税标准作为多哈回合削减关税的基础。这将导致完全不平衡的结果：发展中国家降低关税的整体幅度将大于发达国家。为了使本月在日内瓦举行的谈判重回正轨，贸易部长们将不得不在限制水平的基础上讨论关税削减，并严格遵守多哈回合“在关税减让问题上非完全互惠”的原则。
服务行业改革是多哈回合的重要议题之一，但是发达国家和发展中国家对这一议题的参与极不均衡。Mode 4（允许熟练工人在其他国家临时居住和工作的服务交易）是一个需要特别关注的问题。对于Mode 4的讨论未必是要卷入很多发达国家的移民敏感问题中。我们从Mode 4寻求的只是临时工流动性的增强以及全球服务行业的完善。
但到目前为止，多哈回合谈判在解决这些显著不均衡问题上没有取得多少进展。从另一方面来看，很多发展中国家已经通过它们自己的自由化努力在市场准入方面作出了巨大的调整。比如，印度已经将其经济的各个行业（除了核能以及赌博）对外商直接投资予以不同程度的开放。但是这些自由化承诺的兑现程度将取决于发展中国家利益的满足程度。
WTO本月面临的真正挑战是如何挽回多哈谈判的信誉，履行多哈协议对于促进发展的承诺。即将举办的贸易谈判将为我们提供一个特别的机会：将全球贸易体系建立在一个更加稳固的基础之上，这个基础应包含对全球贫困人群需求的清醒认识以及对一个强有力的信息的传递：我们在团结一致地解决全球问题。错失这一机会，对全球贸易来说无疑损失惨重。
