Scepticism pervades China deals with Zimbabwe
In the tiny village of Dotito, near Zimbabwe's border with Mozambique, Joyce Mujuru, the vice-president who many see as President Robert Mugabe's most likely successor, sought recently to convince a sceptical audience that loans and investment from China would soon alleviate their hardship.
But the unsophisticated, poor people of Dotito were having none of it.
"We cannot afford cooking oil," said an elderly woman, "and have to crush and press dried pumpkin seeds in its place." Others said they extracted sap from the roots to use instead of the soap they could not afford.
According to one of those at the meeting, Mrs Mujuru was sent off with a flea in her ear: 'Don't tell us what the Chinese are going to do, the vice-president was told, what is the government doing?'
The simple answer is not very much.
According to Harare's central statistical office last year China became Zimbabwe's second largest supplier of imported goods.
Its growing involvement in Zimbabwe has coincided with the country's international isolation. In 1998 China ranked only 11th in Harare's roll call of importers. Now it accounts for 6 per cent of Zimbabwe's imports worth an estimated $125m although observers believe it could well be closer to $200m.
But even if the recently promised $1.3bn Chinese investment in Zimbabwe does come through - and there is little yet to show for previous such claims of Chinese assistance - the main beneficiaries are unlikely to be the poor and unemployed but rather the associates of Mr Mugabe's ruling Zanu-PF party: politicians, senior civil servants, leading business people and a growing number of serving or retired military personnel who are increasingly prominent in government and business, along with a few whites, unkindly described by their peers as collaborators.
The mooted Chinese investment is actually contractor or trade finance, negotiated on a government-to-government basis between state-owned Chinese enterprises on the one side and Zimbabwe government companies on the other. Details are scant.
Scepticism is everywhere. Dr Eric Bloch, a leading economic commentator and adviser to the central bank says: "Trade deals with China should be put into reality - we need investment from China but it should be genuine."
When asked whether China's investment in Africa could be less than reported or encountering delays, foreign ministry spokesperson Jiang Yu said on Tuesday: "We have participated in economic co-operation with Africa on the principles of equality and mutual benefit. We are trying to expand imports of goods from Africa."
Zimbabwe state radio said that during her visit to China last week Mrs Mujuru signed a memorandum of understanding with the China National Machinery and Equipment Importand Export Corporationcovering the supply ofplant and equipment for three new thermal power stations.
Zimbabwe is to finance the loans by supplying chrome.
In a separate $60m deal, also a barter arrangement for chrome, Star Communications of China is to provide transmission equipment which will enable all parts of the country to receive Zimbabwe state radio and television.
One informed estimate is that there are at least 15 to 20 sizeable Zimbabwe-China business deals, mostly involving state enterprises.
However, the more details that leak out the more problematic such arrangements sound.
The communications deal involves a Zimbabwe parastatal that produces virtually nothing and relies on subsidies from a government currently running a public sector deficit exceeding 50 per cent of gross domestic product.
How Zimbabwe, which has no spare transport capacity because most of the locomotives operated by the state-owned railways are off the rails, will be able to export thousands of tonnes of bulky low-value chrome ore is unclear.
Equally questionable is how a country plagued by daily power outages and producing at best half its electricity needs will find the capacity to process chrome into much more valuable ferrochrome, a highly electricity-intensive process.
津巴布韦：中国投资能到位吗？
津巴布韦副总统乔伊斯?穆菊茹(Joyce Mujuru)被很多人视为穆加贝总统(Robert Mugabe)最有可能的继任者。前不久，她在临近莫桑比克的津巴布韦边陲小村多迪托(Dotito)力图说服心存疑虑的村民们相信，来自中国的贷款和投资，很快就会减轻他们的贫苦。
但是，单纯、贫苦的多迪托村民们不吃这一套。
“我们买不起烹饪油，”一位老妇人说，“只得自己捣碎干南瓜种子榨油来代替。”其他人表示，他们买不起肥皂，不得不用树根中榨取的树液取而代之。
据一位与会者称，当穆菊茹夫人离开的时候，耳中充满了尖刻嘲讽之辞：“副总统听到村民说：别跟我们讲中国人会做什么，我们自己的政府在干嘛？”
对于这个问题，简单的答案是：没做什么。
津巴布韦统计部门的数据显示，去年，中国成了津巴布韦的第二大进口商品来源国。
中津经贸联系日益密切之际，正值津巴布韦在国际上遭遇孤立。1998年，中国仅是津巴布韦的第11大进口来源国。如今它已占到津巴布韦进口额的6%，估计价值达1.25亿美元，而观察人士认为，实际数字很可能接近2亿美元。
但是，就算中国最近向津巴布韦承诺的13亿美元投资真的到位（中国此前宣称的此类援助至今难觅踪迹），主要受益人也不太可能是穷人和失业者，而会是穆加贝总统领导的执政党津巴布韦非洲民族联盟（爱国阵线）(Zanu-PF)的成员：政界人士、高级公务员、商界领袖、越来越多的现役或退役军人（他们在政界和商界日趋重要），以及被其他白人不客气地称为“勾结者”的少数白人。
这笔尚未到位的中国投资，实际上属于承包融资或贸易融资，是中国国有企业和津巴布韦政府企业通过政府层面的谈判达成的。具体细节不详。
人们对此普遍抱有怀疑。资深经济评论员、津巴布韦央行顾问埃里克?布洛克(Eric Bloch)表示：“与中国的贸易协议应该立足现实――我们需要来自中国的投资，但它必须是实实在在的。”
当被问及中国在非洲的投资是否会少于报道所称金额，或者是否会遭遇延误时，中国外交部发言人姜瑜称：“中方一向按照平等互利和共同发展的原则开展对非经贸合作。我们正着力扩大对非洲商品的进口。”
津巴布韦国家电台称，穆菊茹在上周访华期间，与中国机械设备进出口总公司(China National Machinery and Equipment Import and Export Corporation)签署了谅解备忘录，内容包括中国向津巴布韦三家新建热电厂提供系统和设备。
津巴布韦将通过向中国出口铬矿石来偿还这笔贷款。
在另外一笔价值6000万美元的交易中（同样以铬矿石出口作为交换），中国Star Communications公司将向津巴布韦提供信号传输设备，使该国所有地区都能收听收看国家电台和电视台的节目。
一项可靠预测显示，中津两国至少达成了15到20项规模可观的商业协议，其中大部分涉及国企。
然而，人们越了解细节，这些协议听起来就越有问题。
上述通信交易涉及津巴布韦一家半国营集团，该集团实际上并不生产任何产品，依靠政府补贴生存，而津巴布韦政府目前的公共部门赤字超过国内生产总值的50%。
津巴布韦没有多余的运输能力，因为国有铁路运营的大部分机车都已报废，因此，人们不知道该国将如何出口成千上万吨体积庞大的低价值铬矿石。
同样成问题的是，一个苦于每日断电、电力生产最多满足一半需求的国家，如何借助极为耗电的流程，将铬矿石加工为价值更高的铁铬合金。
