The need for reform along the New Silk Road
The Silk Road between the Middle East and Asia was until the 13th century the world's most important trade route. After 700 years during which merchants looked instead to Europe and the Americas, trade and investment is once again flowing between these regions.
While Asia's thirst for Middle Eastern oil is well understood, less often recognised is the increasing flow of direct and portfolio investment. Thus Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, the ruler of Dubai, used a recent state visit to Pakistan to announce a multi-billion dollar package of infrastructure, property and other investments. Prominent Saudi investors, led by Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, are paying $2bn for a stake in China's second largest state-owned bank. Bahrain's Gulf Finance House wants to invest up to $1bn in Singapore's financial, health, tourism and leisure industries.
The traffic along the New Silk Road is not one way. An alliance of seven companies known as the Singapore Specialist Construction Consortium is pursuing Middle Eastern construction projects. Dubai is already home to Chinamex Mart, a mini-city of Chinese companies distributing their products throughout the region. In the technology sector, Samsung Electronics is among Asian companies intensively cultivating Middle Eastern markets.
From a macroeconomic perspective, these developments make perfect sense. In the five years to 2010, Asia is likely to require about $1,000bn of foreign direct investment, with China alone consuming more than half of that total. With oil prices riding high, meanwhile, Gulf states' investors and companies have money to invest.
Recent interviews with more than a dozen Gulf investors, who collectively control more than $300bn in assets, revealed that they are set to shift their portfolio asset allocation toward Asia by 10-30 per cent. We believe that up to $250bn will be available for investment in Asia over the next five years. While the west would remain Asia's dominant source of investment, this would represent an important shift in the pattern of global capital flows.
Such portfolio rebalancing would allow Gulf investors to benefit not only from Asia's strong internal growth but also from the emergence on the world stage of Asian companies such as Haier, Lenovo, Petronas, Ranbaxy, Samsung, Sterlite and Huawei. Another straw in the wind: Etisalat, a telecoms group located in the United Arab Emirates, earlier this year acquired a controlling stake in Pakistan Telecommunications Company for $2.6bn.
These Asian companies, many of them low-cost competitors, in turn are well positioned to help meet the Gulf's massive infrastructure needs. Electricity, highway, telecoms, water and other infrastructure projects - along with agriculture, education, healthcare and information technology initiatives - will consume more than $500bn over the next five years.
The two regions have more in common than a desire for trade and investment. Commercial links between the Gulf states and Asia should go hand in hand with growth of Islamic banking in accordance with Sharia, which prohibits the use of interest or speculation. Today, almost 20 per cent of private investors in the Gulf say they are prepared to accept lower than conventional market returns or service for full Sharia compliance. Investors with similar attitudes live in parts of Asia such as Indonesia, Malaysia and even China.
This helps explain why Gulf banks such as Al Rajhi Bank and Kuwait Finance House have launched - or are about to launch - operations in Malaysia, why Malaysian and Singaporean banks are eyeing opportunities to facilitate capital flows between the regions and why Kuwait Finance House has secured a mandate to structure the first Islamic bond (Sukook) in China.
To be sure, these are still early days for the New Silk Road. There remains a lot more opportunity than activity. It is difficult for companies and investors to shake long-held habits of focusing on western markets, investing in western companies and purchasing western equities and bonds.
Both regions need to improve mutual understanding through educational and political exchanges. Governments also need to move beyond symbolic events such as state visits to createa more hospitable investment climate.
This means dismantling barriers to competition, such as restrictive licensing rules and product market regulations. It means boosting the transparency of financial reporting, creating more effective markets for corporate control and improved corporate governance. Such measures would enhance the attractiveness of both regions and the efficiency of capital allocation.
The good news is that there are signs of progress. In addition to Dubai and Bahrain (historically the financial capital of the Gulf region), Saudi Arabia recently decided to allow foreigners to invest directly in Saudi companies through the stock exchange. Similarly, the Gulf Co-operation Council is strengthening capital markets through modern laws and exchanges.
Improving capital markets and corporate governance in Asia and the Gulf states would be valuable under any circumstances. At a time when companies and investors are just starting to build a New Silk Road, the need for reform has never been greater.
Dominic Barton is a director in McKinsey's Shanghai office; Kito de Boer is a director in Dubai
新丝绸之路
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元13世纪以前，连接中东和亚洲的丝绸之路(Silk Road)一直是全球最重要的贸易通道。后来，商人们转而将目光投向欧洲和美洲。经过700年岁月变迁，如今贸易和投资再度开始在这些地区之间流动。
尽管人们很容易理解亚洲对中东石油的渴求，但日益增长的直接投资和组合投资流动却较少得到认可。因此，阿拉伯联合酋长国副总统兼总理、迪拜酋长谢赫?穆罕默德?本?拉希德?阿勒马克图姆(Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum)通过最近一次对巴基斯坦的国事访问，宣布了总值数十亿美元的一揽子投资，包括基础设施、不动产及其它投资。在沙特王子阿尔瓦利德?本?塔拉尔(Alwaleed bin Talal)(Alwaleed bin Talal)的带领下，万众瞩目的沙特投资者斥资20亿美元，购买了中国第二大国有银行的部分股份。巴林的海湾金融所(Gulf Finance House)则打算拿出高达10亿美元的资金，投向新加坡的金融、保健、旅游和休闲行业。
新丝绸之路的交往不是单向的。由7家公司组成的新加坡专业建筑财团(Singapore Specialist Construction Consortium)，正在承揽中东的建筑项目。迪拜市内已经形成了一个微型城市――中国城(Chinamex Mart)，中国企业在此安营扎寨，将产品销往中东各地。在技术行业，三星电子(Samsung Electronics)和其它亚洲企业一道，正在大力耕耘中东市场。
从宏观经济角度来看，上述发展完全合理。在2010年之前的5年间，亚洲可能需要大约1万亿美元的外国直接投资，仅中国就将吸纳其中一半以上的投资。而随着石油价格高企，海湾国家的投资者和企业拥有可供投资的资金。
最近对十多位海湾投资者（他们共控制了逾3千亿美元的资产）的采访调查显示，他们打算将10%至30%的投资组合资产配置转向亚洲。我们认为，今后5年，亚洲可获得至多2500亿美元的投资。尽管西方国家仍将是亚洲最主要的投资来源，但这将代表全球资本流动格局的重要变化。
这种资产组合的重新调整，使得海湾投资者不仅可从亚洲强劲的内部增长中获利，而且还能受益于亚洲公司在全球舞台上的崛起，比如海尔(Haier)、联想(Lenovo)、马来西亚国家石油公司(Petronas)、兰伯西(Ranbaxy)、三星(Samsung)、斯特力特(Sterlite)和华为(Huawei)等。其中一个迹象是：阿拉伯联合酋长国的电信集团Etisalat于今年初斥资26亿美元，购得巴基斯坦电信公司(Pakistan Telecommunications Company)的控股权。
反过来，这些亚洲企业（其中很多属于低成本竞争者）也能帮助海湾国家满足它们的大规模基建需求。电力、高速公路、电信、水务和其它基建项目，以及农业、教育、卫生保健和信息技术领域，今后5年将消耗逾5000亿美元的投资。
除了对于贸易和投资的渴求以外，这两个地区还有很多共同点。海湾国家和亚洲的商业联系，应与伊斯兰银行业合乎伊斯兰教义的发展相结合――伊斯兰教义禁止使用利息或投机。现在，海湾地区近20%的私人投资者表示，为了完全遵从伊斯兰教义，他们愿意接受低于传统市场的回报或服务。亚洲某些国家的投资者也持类似观点，例如印尼、马来西亚甚至中国的投资者。
这有助于解释：为何Al Rajhi Bank和科威特金融所(Kuwait Finance House)等海湾银行已经（或即将）在马来西亚开展业务；为何马来西亚和新加坡银行正密切关注其中蕴藏的机遇，推出相关业务，以方便两地之间的资金流动；以及为何科威特金融所获得授权，在中国发行首只伊斯兰债券(Sukook)。
当然，这些仅是新丝绸之路的早期阶段。这里的机会远多于已实施的行动。企业和投资者很难放弃长久以来形成的一些习惯，即主要关注西方市场、投资于西方企业以及购买西方国家的股票和债券。
两地需要通过教育和政治交流，增进彼此之间的了解。除了进行国事访问等象征性活动，政府也需要实行更多举措，创造更为友善的投资环境。
这就需要消除限制性许可证规定和产品市场监管等不利于竞争的障碍。还需要提高财务报告的透明度，为公司控制和改善公司治理创造更有效的市场。这些措施将增强两地的吸引力，并提高资本配置的有效性。
有迹象显示，这些方面取得了一些进展，这是个好消息。除了迪拜和巴林（历史上曾是海湾地区的金融中心），沙特阿拉伯最近也决定允许外国投资者通过证券交易所直接投资沙特企业。同样，海湾合作委员会(Gulf Co-operation Council)也正通过现代的法律和相互交流，加强本地区的资本市场。
在任何情况下，亚洲和海湾国家资本市场和公司治理的不断改善都很重要。在企业和投资者刚刚开始修建新的丝绸之路之际，改革的必要性之大，前所未有。
鲍达民是麦肯锡(McKinsey)上海分公司董事；基托?德?博尔是麦肯锡迪拜分公司董事。
