Forecast: Sun Today, Then Weeks of Rain
EVEN ON GLOOM-SHROUDED WALL Street, the sun shines every couple or three weeks. Since the middle of June, stocks have staged ripping one- or two-day rallies at intervals ranging between two weeks and 20 days.
Each time, the supposed impetus has been the same: Traders believed, or pretended to believe, that Ben Bernanke was signaling an end to the long run of interest-rate increases. And they further behaved as if this would, without doubt, be a good thing for stocks.
This was true on June 14 and 15. And, again on June 29, after the Fed's previous meeting. Then, last Wednesday, as Bernanke's microphone had scarcely been fogged by his opening remarks to Congress, it happened again.
Stocks took off, the consensus decided there might be only one more hike, and 10 times as many stocks rose as fell -- just like the other times. This time the Dow industrials jumped 212 points. We'll all need more fingers if we are to keep count of these "one-and-done" rallies the market has indulged in.
And, once more, the market then failed to follow through. Since May 1, when the market was approaching a multiyear high, the Dow has gained at least 100 points in a day six times.
Except for June 14 -- which preceded the year's best point gain the following day -- the index was flat to down a week later. It seems these rallies relieve an oversold condition, halt the southward slide in investor sentiment and then invite renewed selling before long.
In the latest instance last week, much of the Wednesday gains were surrendered Thursday and Friday, leaving the indexes little to show for the week. The Dow added 129 to 10,868, but the S&P 500 logged only a three-point advance to 1240. The Nasdaq slipped 17 to 2020.
This bias toward selling rallies -- and buying dips only when they reach agreed-upon "support levels" accompanied by negative sentiment readings -- is bear-market- type action, say a growing number of market handicappers. It could certainly prove out this way, though the same charts and sentiment readings by a different light resemble other fleeting lows, such as the one in October 2005.
Earnings reports, aside from the prominent tech blowups discussed below, could easily have provided a decent excuse for a sturdier rally than we got. The numbers have come pretty close to expectations. The trouble is that the market's retreat from risk that began May 10 hasn't been so much about second-quarter results as an unwelcome slowdown in the second half of the year. Not about Israel or Iraq or Iran or crude oil, either.
When health care starts to outperform nicely, along with consumer staples, and the Dow transports break down and industrial stocks buckle, it seems the market is bracing for something more than the "anticipated moderation in economic growth" that Bernanke spoke about to Congress.
Bear Stearns strategist Fran?ois Trahan notes that in each of the past five years, third-quarter estimates have taken a stinging hit during the second-quarter reporting season. Then the numbers recover by the third-quarter reporting period. If this pattern holds, then there could be more slowdown worries to digest. And, who knows, this could feed into the historical tendency for some kind of autumn market low, as the almanacs suggest.
Until then, the choppy, sloppy summer range persists.
ARE BANK STOCKS on borrowed time or are they an upbeat teller of the market's future?
The banks have held up reasonably well in the difficult tape of the past two-plus months. Sector specialists are, however, mostly stumped as to why the banks -- often occupying the tip of the bullwhip in any market move -- have been stalwart. The main banking index is hardly lower despite a 5% spill in the S&P 500, a steep drop in housing activity and an inverted yield curve.
There are a few ways to account for this. One paints banks as offering defensive help to a market fearful that an economic slowdown has limited the number of acute cyclical plays.
Another take is that banks are the locus of the hopeful (hypeful?) expectations that the Fed will soon be through lifting short-term rates. Some investors are already looking toward a re-steepening of the yield curve, should the Fed reverse itself and cut short rates before long.
Solid bank earnings, too, have persevered through talk about squeezed net-interest margins. JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Wachovia (WB) all caught a bid after their generally on-target profit reports, and, unlike the broad market, didn't give back gains later in the week. Even Fifth Third (FITB) and Comerica (CMA), two regionals that struggled with margin pressure, saw their stocks blip higher.
晴天不过是昙花一现
即使是在阴云密布的华尔街，每隔2到3周的样子也能出个大晴天。自6月中旬以来，股市每隔2-3周就能走出一次持续1天或2天的飙升行情。
股市每次“偶尔露峥嵘”，其背后的推动力基本相同，皆因交易员们相信或者看上去相信Fed主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)预示这轮漫长的加息周期即将告一段落。Fed如果停止加息，必将推动股市上扬。
6月14日、15日以及29日股市均出现了上扬行情。上周三，随著贝南克在国会公开发表讲话，股市再度呈现上扬走势。
股市的走高源于市场普遍认为可能再有一次加息Fed就会结束本轮加息周期了。多头占据绝对上风，上涨股数量是下跌股的10倍，与前几次如出一辙。当天，道琼斯指数上涨了212点。如果把这种犹如“昙花一现”的行情继续掰著手指头数下去的话，一只手恐怕是不够用的了。
不过，股市接下来又转入了颓势。5月1日（当天市场逼近多年高点）以后，道琼斯指数已有6个交易日创下日涨幅至少达到100点。
但股指在一周之后不是持平就是下跌，只有6月14日是个例外──接下来的交易日股市创出今年最大的点位涨幅。似乎这些上扬是为了缓解市场的超卖行情，延缓一下市场人气的下滑，然后再引发新的抛盘。
上周再次上演这一幕，周三的涨幅基本上被周四和周五的跌势消耗殆尽，因而股指在上周结束时未能取得出色表现。上周，道琼斯指数涨129点，至10,868点；标准普尔500指数涨3点，至1240点；那斯达克综合指数跌17点，至2020点。
越来越多的市场观察人士认为，股市的这种趋势──逢高抛售、在市场跌至公认的支撑点位而且人气指标处于负面之际逢低吸纳──是典型的熊市行情。当然可以从这个角度来解释市场目前的处境，但是从另一个角度来解读技术图表和人气指标可能会得出另一个结论：市场已经成功探底，反弹行情即将到来，正如2005年10月的那一波行情一样。
不考虑那些知名科技股的惊人噩耗，收益报告原本有理由推动股市呈现出比眼下更为强劲的走势。公司业绩基本如人所愿。问题在于，从5月10日以来频频出现的逢高减磅的行为并不是基于对第二季度收益的预期，更多地是考虑到下半年业绩可能放缓。以色列、伊拉克、伊朗以及油价的影响也并非主要原因。
医疗保健和消费类股呈现出强于大盘的走势，而道琼斯交通运输类股却节节下挫，工业类股也全线回落，看来市场所消化的不仅仅是贝南克所说“经济可能放缓”这点儿内容。
贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)策略师特拉昂(Fran?ois Trahan)指出，过去5年来，在每年第二季度的收益报告期都会出现分析师大幅下调三季度预期的情况。之后到三季度收益季节开始时数据又会回升。如果这一模式得以持续，不久市场可能要消化一些对业绩走软的预期。而且按照历年的规律来看，市场在秋季可能探底。
在此之前，市场将继续保持大起大落的走势，在夏季的波动区间内振荡。
银行类股是苟延残喘还是预示市场的乐观前景？
银行类股在过去两个多月大盘疲软的情况下依旧走稳。很多行业分析师已经开始对一向在大盘走势中扮演急先锋角色的银行股为何如此坚挺感到费解。在标准普尔500指数下挫5%、住房市场活动明显萎缩且收益率曲线收窄的情况下，银行类股却分毫未跌。
我们或许可以从这样几个方面理解这一现象。由于市场普遍担心经济放缓可能导致明显具备周期性的股票减少，银行类股或许不失为防御型投资的理想选择。
此外，对于Fed不久将完成加息的预期也对银行类股有所助益。部分投资者开始期待银行收益率曲线重新趋陡，当然前提是Fed改变策略、著手降息的话。
而且，在有关银行业净利差收窄的讨论中，各银行却依然实现了强劲业绩。摩根大通(JPMorgan, JPM)美国银行(Bank of America, BAC)、富国银行(Wells Fargo)和Wachovia (WB)的业绩普遍达到预期，随后股价也受到追捧。而且，与大盘背道而驰的是，这些股票在上周晚些时候并未回吐涨幅。甚至像Fifth Third (FITB)和Comerica (CMA)这类备受利润率压力的地区性银行也小有涨幅。
Michael Santoli
