China's Economy Is Hot, Not Overheated
Suddenly, the Chinese economy is back at the forefront of attention. Eye-popping economic growth figures released this month have investors worrying that if the breakneck pace isn't reined in soon, Beijing will be forced to take aggressive action, forcing yet another sharp downturn. Thankfully, the situation isn't nearly that bad.
First, the headline numbers: According to official data released this week, the Chinese economy grew by nearly 11% in inflation-adjusted terms in the first half of 2006, compared to the same period last year. Fixed investment expenditure rose by more than 30% over the same period. Meanwhile, money supply is increasing rapidly, indicating stronger demand for credit, and potentially higher investment pressure. Selected, high-end property market prices are rising dramatically.
In response, the Chinese government has redoubled efforts to slow the free-wheeling growth. Two bank reserve requirement hikes, an interest rate increase, and administrative controls on property and other sectors have been implemented within the last two months alone. Last week, Premier Wen Jiabao warned the State Council that the economy was 'overheating,' and that bubble-growth in fixed assets like real estate needed to undergo 'forceful' curbing.
But investors may take away the wrong message from these actions. At the height of China's 'runaway' 2002-03 boom, using the best available data, we estimated inflation-adjusted GDP growth above 12% -- far above the official reported figure of 9.1%. In the first half of 2006, our methodology shows GDP growth of around 10.7% -- virtually identical to the official number reported last week. The official data show an economic acceleration of two percentage points since 2003, while our numbers show an aggregate slowdown of one percentage point over the same period, as the nearby graph shows.
The differential can be explained by the changes to China's official statistics. Over the past two years, the Chinese government has encouraged more accurate economic reporting by the National Bureau of Statistics, and the apparent acceleration could be nothing more than a move towards more realistic growth numbers -- numbers that are very strong, of course, but still less overheated than a few years ago. The same reasoning applies to China's monthly fixed asset investment figure. Once the growing share of asset sales and trading are stripped out, we estimated a growth rate of 15% -- only half as high as China's official 30% number. Again, the data imply a fast-growing economy, but not a dangerously overheating one.
Nearly all of the available statistics support that conclusion. Mainland bank credit growth is growing at a nearly 15% rate today, compared with a year ago, but that number was far higher in mid-2003. China's import growth of 20% might look impressive, but imports increased by nearly 50% at the earlier 2003 peak. Profits, inventories, energy usage, and construction figures, among others, show an economy that is more balanced and less feverish than three years ago.
Indeed, the largest imbalance we see in China today is the ever-rising trade surplus, which is normally a sign of weak domestic demand, as well as industrial oversupply. A rising trade surplus may give Beijing a strong incentive to keep domestic spending buoyant, to avoid a massive inflow of domestic liquidity, thanks to ever-larger foreign exchange interventions aimed at keeping the exchange rate stable.
Another recent concern for Chinese policy makers is the handful of speculative high-end residential niche markets: formerly Shanghai and Tianjin, and now Beijing, Shenzhen and Dalian. Prices here are increasing rapidly, and are highly dependent on bank credit. But these first-tier cities only account for a small fraction of the mainland property market, and luxury housing is only a small fraction of these cities' total construction. Nationwide residential and commercial property prices are rising at a 6% pace this year, compared to last year. That's much slower than annual household income growth, not to mention actual GDP growth, implying that housing affordability in China is rising over time -- hardly the sort of thing policy makers need to worry about.
It's clear that China's economic growth is speedy, and equally clear that the government has a real interest in avoiding a further acceleration. But the impact of Beijing's recent economic tightening measures needs to take effect before we can predict whether more action is needed. Still, recent economic data offer no evidence to suggest that China's economy is spinning out of control. That's some news that lets both China's and the world's leaders sleep a little easier at night.
Jonathan Anderson
中国经济并未过热
Jonathan Anderson
一夜之间，中国经济再次成为人们关注的焦点。本月公布的令人瞠目的经济增长数据让投资者担心，如果这种高速增长步伐不能在短时间内得到遏制，中国政府可能被迫采取更强硬的措施，从而导致经济出现另一轮下跌。所幸，目前的情况还未糟糕到那种程度。
首先，在数字方面：根据本周公布的官方数据，2006年上半年中国经济经通货膨胀因素调整后较上年同期增长近11%。同期的固定资产投资增长了30%以上。与此同时，货币供应量快速增长，这显示对信贷的需求增强了，潜在的投资压力加大了。部分高端房地产市场价格大幅上涨。
双语阅读
? China's Economy Is Hot, Not Overheated 对此，中国政府加大了调控力度以降低经济增长速度。在两个月的时间里，政府两次上调存款准备金率、一次上调利率，并对房地产等行业采取了行政控制措施。上周，中国总理温家宝在国务院会议上警告说，经济增长“过热”，要采取“有力措施”抑制房地产等固定资产的泡沫化增长。
但投资者可能会从这些行动中获得错误的信息。在中国经济2002-2003年的高速增长时期，根据最可靠的数据，我们估计经通货膨胀因素调整后的GDP增幅超过了12%，远远高于官方公布的9.1%。在2006年上半年，我们的方法显示GDP增幅约为10.7%，同上周公布的官方数据基本一致。官方数据显示，自2003年以来，经济增长速度提高了两个百分点，而我们的数据则显示，同期的增长速度总共下降了一个百分点。
这中间的差异主要应归因于中国官方统计方式的改变。在过去两年间，中国政府鼓励国家统计局(National Bureau of Statistics)提供更加准确的经济报告，增长速度明显提高只是说明了这些数据更为真实──尽管非常强劲，但仍低于几年前时过热的水平。同样的推断也适用于中国的月度固定资产投资数据。一旦把在总额中比重日益加大的资产出售和交易额去除掉，我们估计的增长率应为15%──只有官方公布的30%增幅的一半。这一数据再度说明，经济在快速增长，但还没有达到过热的危险水平。
几乎所有能获得的统计数据都支持这个结论。中国目前的银行信贷增幅接近15%，但2003年年中时这个数字更高。中国的进口增长率高达20%，但在2003年初时最高增幅曾达到近50%。利润、库存、能源消耗和建筑数据等等都显示目前的经济较3年前发展更平衡，增长更温和。
事实上，我们认为中国当前最大的不平衡在于其不断增长的贸易顺差──这通常是国内需求疲软的信号，也是工业产能过剩的反映。贸易顺差的增长会让中国政府更迫切地希望增加国内支出，以避免国内出现流动资金过剩的局面，政府为维持汇率稳定而不断加大外汇干预力度是导致这种局面的诱因。
对中国的决策者来说，目前担心的另一个问题是高端住宅市场的投机行为：以前是上海和天津，现在是北京、深圳和大连。这些城市的房地产价格大幅上扬，并在很大程度上是靠银行贷款来支撑的。但这些大城市只占中国大陆房地产市场的一小部分，豪宅也只占这些城市总建筑的很小一部分。全国住宅及商业地产的价格比去年上涨了6%。这个速度大大低于家庭年收入的增幅，更不用说实际的GDP增幅了，这说明中国人对房价的承受能力在不断增加──决策者对此不必过于担忧。
中国经济的高速增长是显而易见的，政府希望遏制经济继续高速增长的决心也无庸置疑。但在我们预测是否需要采取更多行动前，应该先观察中国政府最近采取的经济紧缩措施的效果如何。不过，最近的经济数据并未显示中国经济正在失去控制。这个消息会让中国乃至其它各国的领导人晚上睡的更安稳一些。
（编者按：本文作者乔纳森?安德森(Jonathan Anderson)为瑞银亚洲首席经济学家。）
