Israel's economy 'can weather conflict'
Israel's economy is in good shape to weather the cost of its offensive against the Lebanese Hizbollah movement but the costs of compensation to the rocket-hit north, loss of tourism receipts and the blow to consumption have led analysts to downgrade this year's growth forecasts.
Before the conflict erupted three weeks ago, Israel's budget was in surplus thanks to booming tax revenues and reform enacted in recent years. There was even talk of cuts in the country's defence spending, previously a sacred cow protected by entrenched political and military interests.
Defence spending has risen by up to Shk2bn ($455m, �357m, ￡244m) this year, and a planned Shk2bn cut in 2007 has been scrapped, with the total cost to the economy estimated at Shk10bn so far. Gross domestic product growth forecasts have been cut to at least 4.5 per cent from over 5 per cent.
"The conflict means the surplus has evaporated but there is scope for further cuts in the budget, such as not spending on unnecessary defence equipment or further reducing the universality of welfare spendingand moving towards more means-testing," said Philip Landau, a financial consultant.
As military planners appeared headed towards widening the battle against Hizbollah, government ministries have prepared optimistic and pessimistic scenarios to assess damageto the economy, accordingto the Globes business website.
In the happier forecast, a ceasefire and long-term arrangement in Lebanon reached within a couple of weeks, rather than months, would limit GDP losses to half a percentage point and compensation to businesses would not cost more than Shk1.75bn. Under a more gloomy scenario, a protracted conflict would shave up to 2 percentage points from GDP and cost about Shk20bn over the next year or so.
Financial markets appear to have settled on the former picture, having performed robustly in the last few weeks. The markets, along with the resilience and unity of Israelis, so far have refuted Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who claimed recently that the Israeli media was hiding the true extent of the conflict's cost.
"Can it conceal the enormity of the economic and financial damage inflictedon the [Zionist] entity?I leave the explanations to the specialists in this field," he told Al Manar television in a broadcast aired lastSaturday.
The government has promised compensation to tourism and businesses in the north of Israel, where at least 300,000 residents have fled the region while many of the total population of one million are hiding in bomb shelters. The total cost of aid, including wagesand indirect financial damage, was not yet known.
Tourism, with most revenues made in July and August, has been hit. "There have been at least 20 per cent of cancellations from overseas," said Isaac Herzog, tourism minister.
However, some recent, high-profile mergers and acquisitions were seized upon by Israelis as evidence that the economy was weathering the conflict. SanDisk, based in the US, announced on Sunday it would buy an Israeli flash memory maker, M-Systems, in an all-share offer worth about $1.55bn (�1.2bn, ￡830m).
Dov Moran, founder and chief executive of M-Systems, said the deal was "good news for the country, for Israeli high-tech. It is a vote of confidence for Israeli industry and for M-Systems".
But Iscar, an "old economy" machine tools company acquired recently by US billionaire Warren Buffett, saw its factories in the north of Israel closed for three days because of heavy Hizbollah rocket fire, according to the Ha'aretz daily.
"We've gone through periods like this, and more difficult ones too," said Eitan Wertheimer, Iscar's chairman. "We are continuing to work as usual."
The strength of the Israeli economy is illustrated by both the stock market and shekel, which are hovering around levels seen before Israel's offensive against Hizbollah in Lebanon started three weeks ago.
Financial markets fell sharply just after the conflict began, particularly shares in companies exposed to domestic demand but also export-oriented businesses. However, stocks quickly recovered because investors believe economic fundamentals remain intact, say analysts.
Few expect another recession - such as the one seen after the Palestinian intifada started in 2000 - only a slowdown in the recovery that started in 2004.
"There will be an impact on growth, but the markets believe it won't be that significant," said Richard Gussow, senior analyst at the Excellence Nessuah brokerage in Tel Aviv. "We were looking at a budget surplus but now a budget deficit is unlikely to exceed the target of 3 per cent of gross domestic product."
He said part of the expected budget deficit would be accounted by government aid and compensation to boost growth in the rocket-hit north of Israel. "Growth will come back at the expense of the deficit," he said.
The shekel has recovered to around 4.40 against the US dollar, helped by last week's decision of Stanley Fischer, governor of the Bank of Israel, to raise interest rates for the first time in three months to 5.5 per cent. But some analysts said Mr Fischer's move was surprising given that it was likely to further depress domestic demand.
In addition, analysts say the belief of the financial markets that a ceasefire in the Lebanese conflict can be reached by this weekend could prove to be overly optimistic. Previous hopes for a ceasefire sent the TA-25 index on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange up to 800 at the beginning of this week from around 780 last week. It closed yesterday down 1.3 at 790.
战火中的以色列经济
以
色列经济目前状况良好，足以承受打击黎巴嫩真主党(Hizbollah)所花费的代价。但由于以色列对连遭火箭弹袭击的北部地区进行损失补偿，同时战争导致旅游业收入减少，并对消费造成冲击，分析师调低了以色列今年的增长预测。
在以黎冲突7月12日爆发之前，由于获益大幅增长的税收收入以及近年来推行的改革，以色列财政预算尚有盈余。以色列国内甚至还出现削减国防开支的言论。此前，国防开支被顽固的政治和军事利益集团视为不可侵犯、严加保护的圣物。
今年，以色列国防开支的涨幅高达20亿新谢克尔（合4.55亿美元），并已放弃把2007年国防开支削减20亿新谢克尔的计划。人们预计，以黎冲突迄今对经济带来的损失总额达100亿新谢克尔。国内生产总值(GDP)增长预测已从5%以上降为至少4.5%。
“以黎冲突使财政盈余消耗一空，但进一步削减预算的空间仍然存在，例如取消不必要的国防设备开支，或进一步缩小福利支出的普惠性，转而采取家庭经济情况调查(means-testing)（的措施）。”财政顾问菲利普?兰多(Philip Landau)表示。
据以色列商业网站Globes称，随着以军计划扩大对黎真主党的军事行动，以色列各政府部门已准备好乐观和悲观两种预测，评估战争对以色列经济造成的损失。
根据较为乐观的预测，如果能在几周内、而不是数月内实现停火并与黎巴嫩达成长期和解，以色列的GDP损失将控制在0.5个百分点之内，对企业的损失补偿也不会超过17.5亿新谢克尔。根据较为悲观的预测，长期冲突将使以色列的GDP下降两个百分点，今后一年左右的时间里，损失将达到约200亿新谢克尔。
最近几周，金融市场表现强劲，似乎已验证了前一种预测。迄今，市场强劲的走势，加上以色列人民的乐观和团结，反驳了真主党领袖哈桑?纳斯鲁拉(Hassan Nasrallah)的言论：纳斯鲁拉最近声称，以色列媒体隐瞒了冲突损失的真实程度。
“以色列能够隐瞒冲突给这个（犹太复国主义）实体造成的巨大经济和财政损失吗？我把这个问题留给该领域的专家们来解释。”纳斯鲁拉在上周六“灯塔”(Al-Manar)电视台的广播节目中表示。
以色列政府已承诺对以北部地区的旅游业和企业进行补偿。以色列北部约有100万人口，目前已有30万名居民逃离了该地区，还有许多人躲在防空洞中。袭击造成的全部损失（包括工资和间接经济损失）尚不清楚。
由于7月和8月是旅游旺季，以色列旅游业已遭到沉重打击。“至少有20%的海外游客取消了旅游计划。”以色列旅游部长艾萨克?赫佐格(Isaac Herzog)表示。
但以色列民众认为，最近发生的几起高调并购案证明，以色列经济可以承受以黎冲突带来的损失。美国存储厂商晟碟(SanDisk)于周日宣布，公司将收购以色列闪存制造商艾蒙(M-Systems)，购买全部股份的出价达到约15.5亿美元。
艾蒙创始人兼首席执行官多夫?莫兰(Dov Moran)称，这笔交易“对整个国家和以色列的高科技产业来说，都是个好消息。它为以色列工业和艾蒙投下了一张信任票。”
但据以色列日报《国土报》(Ha’aretz)报道，因真主党火箭弹火力猛烈，伊斯卡(Iscar)位于以色列北部的工厂关闭了三天。这家“旧经济”机床公司近期被美国亿万富翁沃伦?巴菲特(Warren Buffet)收购。
“我们经历过这种时期，甚至比这更困难的时期也经历过。”伊斯卡董事长埃坦?韦特海默(Eitan Wertheimer)说。“我们正像往常一样继续工作。”
股市和汇市都反映出以色列经济强劲，两者目前都在以色列三周前开始进攻黎巴嫩真主党时的水平上。
以黎冲突爆发后，金融市场应声大跌，尤其是受国内需求影响的企业的股票，以及出口导向型企业的股票。然而分析师们表示，股市随后迅速回升，因为投资者认为，经济基本面仍未受到影响。
现在人们普遍预期，以色列不会再次出现衰退（如同2000年巴勒斯坦发生暴动后出现的衰退一样），只是始于2004年的经济复苏将有所放缓。
“对经济增长会产生影响，但市场认为影响不会那么严重。” 特拉维夫Excellence Nessuah证券公司高级分析师理查德?古索(Richard Gussow)表示。“我们原本预测会出现预算盈余，但现在预算赤字不太可能超过GDP3%的目标。”
他表示，预期的预算赤字部分源于政府援助和补偿，以推动遭火箭袭击的以北部地区的经济增长。他说：“在以赤字为代价的基础上，将重新出现增长。”
上周，以色列央行(Bank of Israel)行长斯坦利?费舍尔(Stanley Fischer)决定3个月来首度将利率调升至5.5%，受此推动，新谢克尔兑美元的汇率回升到约4.40。但一些分析师称，费舍尔的动作颇为出人意料，因为此举可能进一步抑制国内需求。
此外，分析师表示，金融市场认为，黎巴嫩冲突有望在本周末停火的看法可能过于乐观。先前对停火的乐观预期推高了特拉维夫证交所(Tel Aviv Stock Exchange)的TA-25指数，从上周的780点附近升至本周初的800点。昨天该指数收跌1.3%，报790点。
