Old Habits Undermine Vietnam's Emergence
Central Planning, North-South Rivalry Threaten to Squander Foreign Investment
DUNG QUAT BAY, Vietnam -- Three decades have passed since Vietnam's north and south were reunified under communist control after years of war. But lingering tensions between the regions -- and the government's persistent commitment to central planning -- still threaten the country's budding economic boom.
Vietnam's gross domestic product has been growing 8% to 9% annually in recent years, making it one of Asia's most popular destinations for foreign direct investment. But much of the country remains poor, with per capita income of $638 in 2005 and the fruits of growth concentrated to a large extent in the south.
A long-delayed attempt to kick-start an industrial transformation at an undeveloped village in the middle of Vietnam's 1,500 mile-long coastline, far from the major cities of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh, shows how regional tensions and central planning could stunt the country's long-term economic growth.
The Dung Quat Economic Zone used to be a sleepy fishing village on a thin spit of land between the South China Sea and the towering Annamite Mountains to the west. Today, the tiny town boasts wide new highways leading to the beach, a 200-bed hospital and a half-completed sports stadium. Scrub-covered land is getting cleared for a golf course and a roller-coaster theme park. In the middle of it all, the steady pounding sounds of jackhammers signal that construction of a $2.5 billion oil refinery is finally under way after years of false starts and arguments about whether it should be built there at all.
"Vietnam has the crude oil and the natural gas to power the refinery and make it a success, especially now that prices are high. But that's way down south, not up there in Dung Quat," says John Vautrain, a vice president at energy consultancy Purvin & Gertz Inc.
Would-be investors from France, the U.S., Malaysia and Russia have spurned the project during the past decade, leaving Vietnam to go it alone after prolonged delays. State oil company Vietnam Oil & Gas Corp., known as PetroVietnam, broke ground in November, and the refinery is scheduled to be finished in 2009.
The way Vietnam's leaders decided to build the country's first oil refinery here, far from major markets, offers a blunt reminder to investors: Despite the country's recent growth spurt, state-planned economics is still the order of the day. And that can hamper efforts to build the power plants, ports and roads that Vietnam, which has 84 million people, needs to sustain its takeoff. At present, Vietnam lacks facilities to convert its own oil output -- about 18 million barrels of crude oil a year -- into usable fuels.
A decade ago, central planners decided that building a refinery should be a crucial part of the country's development strategy. The problem was deciding where to build it.
Southern Vietnam, which fell to communist rule in 1975 after years of war, was the logical place. It is closer to the offshore oil fields and has one of the country's few deep-water ports where tankers can easily dock.
The south is also the locus of Vietnam's economic surge. Last year, Vietnam attracted $5.8 billion in pledged foreign investment -- just $2 billion behind India -- and much of it went to ventures in the south.
Steelmakers, textile factories and semiconductor manufacturers such as Intel Corp. have been drawn by southern Vietnam's low labor costs, its well-educated work force and more business-friendly local governments, which erect fewer of the bureaucratic hurdles often seen in the north.
Overseas Vietnamese, many of whom trace their origins to the south, also prefer to channel their investments there. As a result, fuel-hungry Ho Chi Minh City and its surrounding provinces in the south account for 40% of Vietnam's economic output and 70% of its exports.
Political power, however, still lies almost completely in Hanoi, which wants to spread development around more evenly -- and doesn't hesitate to instruct investors where to put their money.
Though there is no political challenge to the unity of Vietnam, the strains from the wars against France and the U.S. and the division of north from south haven't entirely healed and continue to influence policy.
The Communist Party in Hanoi, analysts say, is wary of allowing the south to continue gathering a disproportionate share of the country's wealth at the risk of alienating people in other parts of Vietnam. So planners decreed that the refinery be built in the comparative isolation of the country's central coast.
Some analysts say Vietnam needs $45 billion to $60 billion to raise the standard of its infrastructure to that of nearby Thailand, to which Vietnam looks as a measure of potential economic development. Christopher Bruton at Bangkok consulting firm Dataconsult Ltd. is skeptical of Vietnam's ability to continue growing 8% or 9% a year without much greater spending for power plants, water supply, railways and a modern road system.
But execution isn't easy. The $2.3 billion government-sponsored Son La hydropower plant being built in the north of the country is criticized by some economists as unnecessarily expensive and another sign of Hanoi's determination to go it alone on controversial big-ticket projects.
Le Van Dung, director of the Dung Quat Economic Zone's investment-promotion center, predicts the entire project will create 20,000 jobs by 2010. Some 2,000 people have already found jobs helping to build the refinery.
The longer-term issue is whether Dung Quat can avoid becoming the kind of state-sponsored white-elephant project that burdens many developing economies.
While high oil prices have improved the margins in the refinery business, that doesn't guarantee success, says Alan Gelder, vice president of downstream oil at the London offices of energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie Ltd. "Only the right ones in the right places will be commercially viable," he says.
越南旧习难改 经济前景受限
越南在经历数年战争后在共产党的领导下最终实现统一的历史时刻已经过去三十年了。但越南北方与南方间挥之不去的紧张关系，以及越南政府对中央计划模式的坚持仍对这个国家崭露头角的经济繁荣构成了威胁。
榕桔湾位于越南2,400公里海岸线的中间，远离河内和胡志明市等大城市，那里的一项工业化建设被长期搁置就能很好的说明上述问题。
榕桔曾是个沉睡的渔村，位于南中国海和高耸的安南山脉中间的一块弹丸之地上。如今，这个小镇拥有通向海滩的宽阔高速公路、一家有200个床位的医院及一处建设过半的体育馆。遍布灌木的土地正在被清理，这是为兴建一处高尔夫球场和一家过山车主题公园作准备。在小镇的中间，钻头持续不断的声音昭示著一座耗资25亿美元的炼油厂终于开工建设了。此前这个项目曾数次夭折，关于炼油厂是否要建在榕桔的争论也一直都没有停息过。
能源咨询公司Purvin & Gertz副总裁约翰?沃特兰(John Vautrain)说，越南的原油和天然气资源能为炼油厂提供动力支持，并使其获得成功。在如今这个能源价格高企的时代更是如此。但前提是炼油厂建在南方，而不是靠北边的榕桔。
在过去的十年中，来自法国、美国、马来西亚以及俄罗斯的潜在投资者都先后退出了这个项目，越南现在只能在长时间的拖延之后独自推进这个项目。越南国营石油公司越南石油和天然气公司(Vietnam Oil & Gas Corp.)最终于去年11月开始破土兴建炼油厂，按计划这项工程将于2009年竣工。
越南领导人在远离主要能源市场的地方兴建全国第一家炼油厂的决定让投资者们再次清醒地认识到：尽管越南经济飞速发展，但是国有计划经济仍然是主旋律。这种状况将有可能阻碍发电站、码头及道路的兴建，而越南恰恰需要这些基础设施为经济腾飞提供保障。以越南政府斥资23亿美元在北部兴建的山罗水力发电厂为例。一些经济学家批评称，该项目对越南来说成本过于高昂，另外它还是政府在此类备受争议的高投入项目上一意孤行的另一个表现。
不过，越南的炼油厂计划──以及政府为该项目融资失败──才是投资者最担心的问题。10年前，越南中央计划制定者认为兴建一家炼油厂对越南的发展策略至关重要。越南目前缺乏此类设施，因而无力将每年1,800万桶的原油产出转化成可用的燃料。
问题出在炼油厂选址的决策上。
事实上，选择越南南部是最合理的。南部更靠近海上油田，而且拥有全国为数不多的一处深水港口，油轮很容易在那里停靠。
越南南部经历了数年战争后自1975年开始由共产党统治，南部也是越南经济腾飞的中心。最近几年来，越南经济一直以每年8%-9%的增速发展。越南因此成为亚洲最受欢迎的外商直接投资目的地之一。去年，越南共吸引了承诺的外商直接投资58亿美元，仅比印度低20亿美元。而且外商投资的很大一部分都流向了南部的企业。
越南南部低廉的劳动力成本、训练有素的劳动大军以及对商业发展态度更友好的当地政府吸引了众多钢铁生产商、纺织品工厂以及英特尔(Intel Corp.)等半导体生产商。越南南部政府很少像北部那样设置重重官僚障碍。
很多越南侨胞的祖籍在南部，他们也更愿意在那里投资。因此，越南经济总产出的40%及出口的70%都来自胡志明市及其周边的南部省份。
不过，国家政治权力仍基本全部集中在河内。越南政府想让各地均衡发展，因此不遗余力地指导投资者在哪里投资。
尽管越南的统一目前并未遭遇任何政治压力，但是反抗法国和美国的战争所留下的后遗症依然没有痊愈，并继续影响著政府的政策。
分析人士说，越南共产党对一个问题十分警惕：如果允许南方继续获得不相称的国家财富，他们就面临与其他地区人民疏远的危险。因此，决策者下令将炼油厂建在国家海岸线中间相对孤立的地方。
此类决策可能会对越南长期的经济发展道路产生影响。
一些分析人士说，越南需要450-600亿美元的资金才能将基础设施提高至其临近国家泰国的水平。曼谷咨询公司Dataconsult Ltd.的克里斯多夫?布鲁顿(Christopher Bruton)表示，如果越南在电厂建设、水源供应、铁路及现代公路系统等方面的投入无明显提高，他怀疑越南经济是否还能以每年8%-9%的速度增长。以贯通越南南北的高速公路为例：它仍然仅有两条车道，而且经常被水牛、拖拉机以及车速缓慢的卡车挤得水泄不通。
越南仍然是一个贫穷国家，2005年的人均收入仅为638美元。越南希望基础设施建设的多数资金能够从海外获得。但是，投资者们可不喜欢政府在他们的资金投向问题上总是指指点点。
这种政治至上的决策方式已经阻碍了炼油厂的建设。自1996年以来，众多投资者都对这个项目表达过兴趣，但最终都因为政府的干预而放弃。法国的道达尔(Total Fina, 现为Total SA)最初已签订协议，同意帮助炼油厂的建设进行融资。但是当越南政府把厂址定在榕桔时，道达尔便拒绝继续参与这个项目了。
包括美国康菲石油公司(ConocoPhillips)及马来西亚国有企业Petroliam Nasional Bhd.在内的一个财团在1998年退出了该项目的投资队伍，因为他们认为这个炼油厂位置偏远，以后似乎只会赔钱。在俄罗斯公司Zarubezhneft与越南石油和天然气公司成立的另一家合资公司爆出腐败丑闻后，Zarubezhneft于2002年退出了这个项目。
尽管炼油厂的商业可行性仍有待商榷，但可以肯定的是：为支持这个工程而兴建的基础设施吸引了其他一些投资者来榕桔投资。这也正是河内希望看到的情形。一家台湾公司斥资10.4亿美元正在榕桔建一家钢铁厂。韩国Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction Co.正在榕桔兴建两家重型设备生产厂，总投资为2.4亿美元。
榕桔经济区投资促进中心的负责人Le Van Dung预计，整个项目将在2010年以前创造20,000个就业岗位。目前已有约2,000人找到与炼油厂基础建设相关的工作。
更长远的问题是：榕桔炼油厂是否能够避免成为那种受国家扶持、却给国家造成沉重负担的项目，这类项目已经让许多发展中国家背上了包袱。
能源咨询公司Wood Mackenzie Ltd.伦敦办事处石油下游业务副总裁艾伦?格尔德(Alan Gelder)说，尽管高企的石油价格提高了炼油行业的利润，但是这并不保证每家炼油厂都能取得成功。他还说，只有占据天时地利的炼油厂才有望盈利。
James Hookway
