投资者对恐怖袭击的新思维
Investor Calm Shows New Way Of Seeing Terror
Markets Learn to Accept the Risk,
Don't Get Spooked by Scary News;
Viewing It Like a Natural Disaster
Wall Street's muted reaction to the foiled trans-Atlantic terrorist plot in London could illustrate a change in how investors think about -- and react to -- such threats.
"Terrorism is now probably part of the general backdrop of doing business and living in the world," says Patrick Dorsey, head of stock analysis at Chicago researcher Morningstar Inc. "In some ways these threats are like natural disasters now. People don't know when they're coming, but they understand that they'll come at some point."
Investors in the U.S. woke to news that British authorities disrupted the scheme. While European markets fell on the day, selling cooled in the U.S. as the hours passed. By the end of the session, the broader U.S. indexes were in the black.
By comparison, when markets reopened Sept. 17, 2001, following the Sept. 11 attacks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite index each tumbled about 7%.
In recent years, some money mangers have noted that the selling after Sept. 11, 2001, was a buying opportunity. Indeed, six months after Sept. 11, the Dow industrials were up more than 18%.
But the days of big, broad drops and sharp rebounds may be waning. With the five-year anniversary of the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon approaching, yesterday's reaction and those to recent bombings in London, Madrid and Mumbai show that investors are increasingly inured to terrorist threats.
Clearly there are key differences between yesterday's plot in London -- in which terrorists planned to blow up several aircraft midair between the United Kingdom and the U.S. using explosives smuggled in carry-on luggage -- and the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. The London plotters weren't successful. They also didn't disrupt trading on the New York Stock Exchange for several days.
While the foiled scheme in Britain, like the Sept. 11 attacks, involved planes and focused in part on American citizens, many of the traditional sectors hurt by the specter of airline-focused terrorism weren't hit as hard as some might have expected.
The Dow Jones Wilshire U.S. Airlines Index rose 0.4%, compared with a drop of 34% on the first day of trading after Sept. 11. Hotel stocks, which fell 16% on average when trading reopened after Sept. 11, also rose slightly. Shares of insurers are often jarred by terrorist events, with some bulls buying on expected rate increases and others selling because of rising claims. But yesterday, property-casualty insurance stocks performed about in line with the market, on average.
"The market's reaction today shows that people realize terrorism is something we have to live with and expect," says Jeff Van Harte, a manager of the $113 million Delaware Large Cap Growth Fund.
"If I hadn't read the headlines today, I would've looked at today's market and had no idea there was any foiled plot," says John Linehan, manager of the $4.9 billion T. Rowe Price Value Fund. "A lesson learned after 9/11 was that that was a buying opportunity. So, people will be more circumspect" before they sell now, he says.
Even so, crude fell about 3% yesterday and some energy stocks fell, too, on fears that fewer flights would pinch demand for jet fuel.
That concern might be overblown, according to bargain-hunting value manager David Dreman, chairman and chief investment officer at Dreman Value Management in Jersey City, N.J., which manages more than $13 billion. "You can hardly say cutting back 25 flights will change the global supply-demand dynamic for oil," he says.
Shares of several small scanning and security-related companies rose sharply, but Mr. Dreman and others cautioned against investors buying stocks merely based on yesterday's news. That strategy could leave investors buying stocks that dipped, while ignoring the fact that they could be flawed businesses.
"I still don't want to own an airline," Mr. Dreman said, noting that he considered buying shares early yesterday but then passed.
The foiled plot could, however, create longer-term opportunities. If passengers can't use carry-on baggage anymore and have to arrive hours before a flight's departure to get through security checks, Mr. Van Harte wondered if frustrated business executives might spur demand for video-conferencing, so they can avoid travel, and private-jet rentals, to avoid long security lines. That could point to companies like communications-equipment maker Polycom Inc., and Net Jets Inc., a unit of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Longer term, the foiled plot also could give some justification to investors who are shifting their portfolios to reflect fears about the slowing U.S. economy.
An increasing number of portfolio managers have been increasing their bets on shares of big companies whose growth is less tied to steady economic growth, such as drugstores, beer brewers, food companies and tax-preparers.
"People who were thinking of getting out of economically sensitive names will pull the trigger more quickly now," says Milton Ezrati, chief economist at Lord Abbett Funds in Jersey City.
投资者对恐怖袭击的新思维
伦敦挫败了一起跨大西洋的恐怖袭击阴谋，而华尔街对此做出的平静反应说明投资者对这类威胁的想法和行为出现了怎样的变化。
芝加哥研究机构晨星公司(Morningstar Inc.)的股票分析主管帕特里克?多西(Patrick Dorsey)说，现在恐怖主义可能已经成为在全球经商和生活的一个大背景了。在某种程度上，这些威胁就象是自然灾害一样了。人们不清楚恐怖袭击何时会发生，但他们理解这有时是难以避免的。
美国的投资者对英国政府挫败了这起阴谋保持了冷静态度。尽管欧洲股市当天下跌，但随著时间的推移，美国股市的抛盘逐渐减弱。到当天收盘时，美国主要股指出现了上涨。
而在2001年9月17日，当美国股市在911恐怖袭击后恢复交易当天，道琼斯指数和那斯达克指数都下跌了7%左右。
近年来，部分基金经理曾指出，当年911事件后的暴跌是一个买入良机。的确，在911事件发生6个月后，道琼斯指数上涨了18%以上。
但这种大起大落的情况可能越来越少了。随著911事件5年纪念日的临近，以及周四的反应和近期对伦敦、马德里及孟买炸弹袭击的反应，这一切都说明投资者对恐怖袭击威胁已经越来越习以为常了。
显然，周四伦敦的阴谋──恐怖分子计划在英国飞往美国的航班上引爆隐藏在手提行李中的爆炸物──同911事件有著很大不同。这次策划者没有成功。他们也没能让纽约证交所中断几天的交易。
尽管这次未遂袭击发生在英国，但却同911事件一样，也同飞机有关，在某种程度上也是针对著美国公民，不过许多最易受到针对飞机的恐怖袭击影响的传统行业却没有受到一些人预计的那样严重的打击。
道琼斯威尔希尔美国航空公司指数上涨了0.4%，而911事件后的首个交易日，该指数暴跌了34%。酒店类股在911事件后的首个交易日平均下跌了16%，而周四此类股票也微幅上涨。保险类股常常会受到恐怖袭击的双重影响，一些乐观人士会因预计保险费率上调而买进，而一些人则会因为索赔增加而卖出。不过周四，财产意外保险类股的表现同大盘一致。
特拉华大型股成长基金(Delaware Large Cap Growth Fund)的经理杰夫?范哈特(Jeff Van Harte)说，市场周四的反应说明，人们已经意识到恐怖主义是我们生活中无法回避的问题。
T. Rowe Price Value基金的经理约翰?莱恩汉(John Linehan)说，如果我没有看报纸，我从周四的市场上根本无法判断出现了被挫败的恐怖袭击阴谋。在911事件后吸取的一个教训就是当时是一个买进机会。因此，人们现在会在卖出前三思而行。
不过，周四原油价格下跌了3%左右，部分能源类股走低，投资者担心航班减少将打击对航空燃油的需求。
Dreman Value Management的逢低吸纳价值经理、董事长兼投资主管大卫?德雷曼(David Dreman)认为，这种担心有些过虑了。他说，很难相信削减了25个航班会改变全球的石油供需格局。
几家生产扫描及安全产品的小公司股价大幅上扬，但德雷曼及其他人提醒投资者，不要仅凭周四的消息购买股票。这种做法可能让投资者买进出现下跌的股票，而忽视了这些公司的业务可能存在缺陷的事实。
德雷曼说，我仍不想持有航空公司类股。他表示，曾在周四早盘时考虑买进股票，但后来就放弃了这个念头。
不过，被挫败的这次阴谋可能会带来中长期的机会。范哈特猜测，如果乘客不能再携带手提行李，而且要提前几小时到达机场进行安检，感到不满的企业管理人士可能会增加对视频会议的需求，以避免出差，或是租赁私人飞机，以避免长长的安检队伍。这可能有利于Polycom Inc.和Net Jets Inc.等通讯设备制造商。后者是Berkshire Hathaway Inc.的子公司。
从中长期而言，此次未遂袭击可能还会给因担忧美国经济放缓而调整投资组合的投资者又增加了一个理由。
越来越多的投资组合经理愈发看好公司发展同稳定的经济增长关系不太密切的大公司股票，如药店、啤酒酿制商、食品公司和纳税服务公司，等等。
Lord Abbett基金的首席经济师密尔顿?埃兹拉蒂(Milton Ezrati)说，一直在考虑退出经济敏感类股票的投资者现在可能会加快他们的步伐。
Ian McDonald
