He has seen the future
Though Alvin Toffler suggested lunching on Sunset Boulevard, for convenience we settled on the terrace of the Hotel Bel-Air in Los Angeles, not far from the glass-and-steel home he shares with his wife, muse and co-author, Heidi.
I was more than happy to meet at this legendary Hollywood haunt to pick the mind of 77-year-old Toffler, the world's most famous futurologist. Maybe I would even see Warren Beatty and Nancy Reagan (yes it's true) doing lunch in their regular booth. To keep me company until Toffler arrives, I order a Vesper martini - half gin, half vodka, dry - now the retro rage in LA. It's a testament, I tell myself, to one of Toffler's key maxims: change is non-linear and can go backwards, forwards and sideways.
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It's been 36 years since he and Heidi published their first blockbuster, Future Shock, and a decade less since The Third Wave, which predicted demassification, diversity, knowledge-based production, the acceleration of change. Yet paradoxically Toffler is now more celebrated in countries such as Brazil, China and South Korea than he is at home, where the future has already more or less arrived. Not much has yet been written in the US press about their new book, Revolutionary Wealth, aside from some good reviews in the New York Times and USA Today. But it has garnered a lot of coverage in Germany and Italy, and is already a bestseller in China and India. In Japan, where he's just been, he is a veritable oracle.
As soon as the usual pleasantries are out of the way, Toffler begins by lamenting the state of affairs in the Middle East. This isn't what I want to talk about, so I blurt out my first question: are you a prophet unsung in your own country because no one wants to listen, or because Americans have so thoroughly accepted your premises that there is no more to argue about? He more or less accepts the latter explanation, noting that Europe's renewed attention, for example, would seem to arise from the perception that it is falling behind.
"While the revolutionary wealth system is all about decentralisation, niches, flexibility and devolution to networked and distributed power, Europe's leaders are trying to build a megastate," he says. "Europeans have very slow-moving institutions and societies. And they are proud of that fact. This is fine, but there will be a price. The large states - France, Germany, Italy - are falling into relative decline behind the US and Asia."
I suggest we order as this promised to be a long conversation. Toffler chooses a Cobb salad with grilled shrimp and sparkling water. I opt for the prosciutto and melon and a glass of pinot noir.
Continuing on the theme of where his message most resonates, Toffler lists the parade of potentates he and Heidi have tutored over the years. It's an impressive tally: Mikhail Gorbachev in 1986 as he was formulating perestroika. Zhao Ziyang, the reformist Chinese premier in 1988. Most of the Japanese leaders from Nakasone to Koizumi; Malaysia's Mahathir Mohamad; India's Abdul Kalam. South Korea's Kim Dae-jung and Venezuela's Hugo Chavez read him in jail. Lately Toffler has been hanging out with Carlos Slim Helu, the Mexican telecom mogul and one of the world's richest men.
As Toffler pauses for a bite, I ponder how one might label what he does. Although management consultants Accenture recently listed him as the third most influential voice among business leaders, behind Bill Gates and the late Peter Drucker, Toffler is neither a Tom Peters-type business consultant nor a management guru. He's closer to what we used to call a master thinker. So what's on his mind now?
His big notion of the moment is that new technologies are enabling the radical fusion of the producer and consumer into the "prosumer". One example with huge implications for ageing societies: "Soon there will be one billion people over 60," he notes. "They will be using new technologies from self-diagnosis to instant toilet urinalysis to self-administered therapies delivered by nanotechnology to do for themselves what doctors used to do. This will change the way the whole health industry works." Inexorably, this huge aspect of the non-money economy will drive the market for medical technologies, creating vast new value and a lot of wealth for somebody.
With desk-top manufacturing, prosumers will really come into their own, he says. In some cases prosuming entails a "third job" where the corporation "outsources" its labour not to India or the Philippines, but to the unpaid consumer, such as when we do our own banking through an ATM instead of a teller that the bank must employ, or trace our own FedEx packages on the internet instead of relying on a paid clerk.
The development Toffler believes may go down as this era's greatest turning point is the creation of wealth 12,000 miles above earth. Wealth today, he argues, is created everywhere (globalisation), nowhere (cyberspace) and out there (outer space). "Global positioning satellites are key to synchronising precision time and data streams for everything from cellphone calls to ATM withdrawals. They allow just-in-time productivity because of precise tracking. GPS is also becoming central to air-traffic control. And satellites increase agricultural productivity through tracking weather, enabling more accurate forecasts."
For Toffler, the diversifying wealth system will be mirrored in our personal lives. "We won't see the death of the family, but the diversification of family formats. We are on the verge of accepting gay civil unions. There are single mothers, unmarried couples, married couples with no kids, fathers and mothers in serial marriages. Monogamy won't go away, but polygamy may gain wider acceptance."
Instead of the geographically bounded, socially ascribed communities of the past, he foresees networks of the like-minded that bring people together as never before. Freed from the demands of standardisation in Toffler's new wealth system, we will live on "customised time" suited to our own personal rhythms, working and playing by our own schedule. "Creative piece work" will replace jobs and careers as we become prosumers, much of the time outside the money economy. Work will move out of the factory and office, and back into the home.
Absorbed in his vision, Toffler ignores his wilting salad. I suggest that this upheaval won't go down well with a lot of people vested in the status quo. If all the big institutions wither away under this new dynamic system, so will the security. Look at the French students who protested against the very economy he's outlining.
Toffler responds that we will see "wave conflict" erupt across the world. We are seeing it now, he suggests, in Mexico, where the recent elections showed the country divided nearly 50-50 between, on one hand, the "first wave" peasant south and the "second wave" urban labour unions and, on the other hand, the more prosperous "third wave" north which has benefited from Nafta and globalisation. Similar conflict is roiling China and Brazil.
Even in the US, institutions out of sync with each other are caught in a "clash of speeds" between the old system and the new. "Standardised education is among the slowest institutions to adapt. If you were a cop monitoring the speed of cars going by, you would clock the car of business, which changes rapidly under competitive pressures, at 100 mph. But the car of education, which is supposedly preparing the young for the future, is only going at 10 mph. You cannot have a successful economy with that degree of desynchronisation."
Japan, in Toffler's view, also suffers from desynchronisation. "The technology is the easy part. The hard part is to make consonant changes in institutions and social structures to bring it all into sync. This is where Japan, with its notorious social and cultural rigidity, has fallen down. Japan's main challenge is to loosen up."
The collision of speeds extends to geopolitics, not least the conflict between pious premodern Islamists and the postmodern fast caste of secular consumers. In Korea, Toffler notes, Kim Dae-jung admirably laid out an evolutionary 30-year timeline for his "sunshine policy" to change the North. But rapid-fire events - such as Kim Jong-il's recent missile tests - forced the political agenda before the policy had had time to work. Then it unravelled, like Gorbachev's perestroika, which also had a decades-long timeframe in the mind of its author.
"This clash of speeds can often derail the current path of change, or at least send it on a detour," he warns.
"That is why linear extrapolations are so misleading. Sometime in the next 20 years, the odds are strong that there will be a significant social upheaval there that throws all such projections into question."
Lunch has by now stretched into mid-afternoon, and we are starting to feel the heatwave that has been baking LA. Since global warming doesn't get much ink in Toffler's new book, I wonder what he thinks. "I start with doubt about forecasts and retrocasts that supposedly tell us what will happen centuries hence and what did happen in the pre-human past," he says. "Remember Paul Ehrlich's The Population Bomb. If ever there was a misleading forecast about the year 2000, it was that."
I have one last question: in all his years of charting the future, what has he got wrong? "We talked about human and animal cloning in the 1970s and thought it would be a reality by the mid-1980s," he responds. "We underestimated the slow pace of the science. Though we pointed out the moral dilemmas, we didn't foresee the strength of the anti-science Christian right." I didn't need to remind him that on the day we met Bush vetoed legislation to ease the path for stem-cell research. "Also," Toffler laughs, "the paperless office has not arrived - yet."
Toffler calls for coffee. I order cherry sorbet. Our conversation has revealed not only a truly magnanimous mind - open, objective and disinterested, which is to say, intellectually honest - but also a really nice guy. Someone who is clearly ahead of the future no matter how fast it moves.
Hotel Bel-Air, Los Angeles
1 x Cobb salad
1 x melon and prosciutto
1 x green salad
1 x cherry sorbet
1 x espresso
1 x dry martini
2 x San Pellegrino water
1 x glass of pinot noir
Total: $128.28
与托夫勒共进午餐
阿尔文?托夫勒(Alvin Toffler)曾建议在洛杉矶的日落大道(Sunset Boulevard)进午餐，但为了便利起见，我们将地点选在了洛杉矶贝尔艾尔酒店(Hotel Bel-Air)的露台。此处距离他与妻子兼合著者海蒂(Heidi)同住的钢/玻璃结构住宅不远。
变化是非线性的
我很高兴能在这个富有传奇色彩的、好莱坞名人经常出没的地方，采访现年77岁、全球最著名的未来学家托夫勒。我甚至有可能看到沃伦?比蒂(Warren Beatty)和南希?里根(Nancy Reagan)在他们常去的隔间里吃午饭呢！在等待托夫勒到来的时候，我点了一杯维斯珀(Vesper)马提尼酒――洛杉矶现在正流行这种复古情调的、由杜松子酒和伏特加酒对半混合而成的烈性酒。我对自己说，这是对托夫勒核心思想之一的印证：变化是非线性的，可以倒退、向前或横向发展。
36年前，他和海蒂出版了他们的第一本重磅著作《未来的冲击》(Future Shock)。不到十年后，他们出版了《第三次浪潮》(The Third Wave)，书中预测了“分众化”(demassification)、多元化、基于知识的生产、以及变化的加速。然而矛盾的是，托夫勒目前在巴西、中国和韩国等国的名气比他在本土更大――在本土，他所预言的未来或多或少变成了现实。美国新闻界对他们的新书《财富的革命》(Revolutionary Wealth)并未作太多报道，只有《纽约时报》(New York Times)和《今日美国》(USA Today)刊发了一些不错的书评。不过，此书已在德国和意大利引起媒体关注，并已在中国和印度成为畅销书。他刚访问日本，他在那里被视为真正的哲人智者。
欧洲已经落后
打过招呼之后，托夫勒开始悲叹中东事态。这并非我想讨论的话题，因此我脱口问出第一个问题：你在自己的国家里是一位无名的预言者，这是因为没有人愿意倾听你的观点呢，还是因为美国人已经彻底接受了你的观点，以至于再没什么可争论的了？他多多少少接受了后一种解释，并提到欧洲对他重新兴起的关注，似乎缘于“欧洲已经落后”的观点。
“革命的财富体系，完全是关于分散经营、细分市场、灵活性以及权力的分散和下放，而欧洲领导人却试图建立一个庞大国家。”他表示。“欧洲人的机构和社会运转非常缓慢。他们为这一点感到骄傲。这没啥不好，但总会有代价。较大的欧洲国家，如法国、德国和意大利，与美国和亚洲相比正陷入相对衰退之中。
我建议我们点菜，因为这看来会是一次长谈。托夫勒点了一份带有烤虾的柯布沙拉和苏打水。我点了火腿、甜瓜和一杯黑品乐葡萄酒。
我们继续谈论他的预言在哪里引起的反响最大。托夫勒列举了这些年来听取他和海蒂建议的领导人，这份名单令人印象深刻：1986年，戈尔巴乔夫(Mikhail Gorbachev)策划改革之时；1988年，中国改革派总理赵紫阳；从中曾根康弘(Nakasone)到小泉纯一郎(Koizumi)的多数日本领导人；马来西亚的马哈蒂尔?穆罕默德(Mahathir Mohamad)；印度的阿卜杜尔?卡拉姆(Abdul Kalam)。韩国的金大中(Kim Dae-jung)和委内瑞拉总统雨果?查韦斯(Hugo Chavez)曾在狱中阅读过他的著作。托夫勒最近的交谈对象是墨西哥电信业巨头、全球富豪之一的卡洛斯?萨利姆?埃卢(Carlos Slim Helu)。
影响力仅次于比尔?盖茨和彼得?德鲁克
托夫勒停下来吃菜时，我开始考虑人们会如何定义他所做的事。尽管管理咨询机构埃森哲(Accenture)最近将他列为影响力排名第三的商业领袖，仅次于比尔?盖茨(Bill Gates)和已故的彼得?德鲁克(Peter Drucker)，但托夫勒既非汤姆?彼得(Tom Peters)式商业咨询师，亦非管理学大师。他更接近于人们过去称为大师级思想家的那类人。那么，他在想什么呢？
他目前提出的一个重大概念是：新技术正使得生产者和消费者通过根本的融合，形成“生产消费者”(prosumer)。老龄社会到来的迹象之一是：“60岁以上的人口很快就会达到10亿，”这有巨大的潜在意义。他指出，“从自我诊断，到即时尿检，到自我治疗，他们将使用纳米科技带来的新疗法，完成以前需要医生执行的任务。这将改变整个保健行业的运作方式。”无疑，非货币经济的这一巨大前景将推动医疗技术市场的发展，创造巨大的新价值，并为某些人创造巨大财富。
不拿薪资的“生产消费者”
他表示，有这种桌上型生产，“生产消费者”将真正发挥作用。在某些情况下，生产/消费合一，将导致“第三职业”兴起――企业不再将劳动“外包”至印度或菲律宾，而是交给不拿薪资的消费者，譬如我们通过自动取款机(ATM)自己进行个人银行业务操作，以取代银行必须雇佣的出纳员；或通过网络追踪联邦快递(FedEx)递送的包裹，而不用依赖拿工资的职员。
托夫勒认为，这个时代最伟大的转折点，是在1.2万英里高空创造财富。他辩称，今天的财富产生于各处（全球化）、无处（网络空间）及别处（外太空）。“全球卫星定位系统是为从手机呼叫到ATM提款的万事万物，同步精确时间和数据流的关键。由于追踪精确，它们使准时化生产成为可能。全球卫星定位系统对空中交通管制也变得至关重要。卫星还可通过追踪天气，提供更准确的预报，提高农业生产率。”
在托夫勒看来，多元化财富体系将在我们的个人生活中得到体现。“我们不会看到家庭的消亡，但会看到家庭形式的多元化。我们处于接纳同性恋民事婚姻的边缘。社会上存在着单身母亲、未婚夫妇、已婚无子女夫妇、经历多次婚姻的父母。一夫一妻制不会消失，但一夫多妻制可能获得更广泛的认可。
工作将回到家中
与以往那些有地理界限、有着不同社会归属的族群社团不同，他预测将出现志同道合者的网络，使人们前所未有地集合到一起。在托夫勒的新财富体系中，我们将从标准化需求的束缚中解放出来，生活在符合个人节奏的“定制时间”，按照自己的日程表工作和玩耍。随着我们成为生产消费者(prosumer)，大部分时间花在货币经济之外，“创造项目”将取代传统的工作和职业。工作将告别工厂和办公室，回到家中。
托夫勒沉浸在他的想象之中，忽略了盘中的沙拉。我提出，由于很多人是现状的既得利益者，这种剧变无法顺利地被人们接受。如果大机构都在这种新的动态体系之下逐渐消亡的话，安全也将不复存在。看看那些抗议他所描述的经济模式的法国学生们吧。
托夫勒回应道，我们将看到“浪潮冲突”在全球爆发。他指出，我们正目睹它在墨西哥发生，最近的大选表明，该国已差不多一分为二，一边是“第一次浪潮”中的南方农民和“第二次浪潮”中的城市工会，另一边则是“第三次浪潮”中受益于北美自由贸易联盟(Nafta)和全球化的北方，它更为繁荣。类似的冲突也正席卷中国和巴西。
新老体系间的“速度冲突”
即使在美国，彼此不同步的机构，也陷入了新老体系之间的“速度冲突”。“标准化教育属于调整速度最慢的机构。假定你是一名监督过往汽车车速的警察，你为‘商业之车’计时――它在竞争压力下会以每小时100英里的速度迅速改变。但理应面向未来培养年轻一代的‘教育之车’，却仅以每小时10英里的速度行驶。在如此明显的不同步情况下，你无法拥有成功的经济。”
在托夫勒看来，日本同样面临着不同步问题。“技术是比较容易的部分。难的是让机构与社会结构产生协调一致的变化，进入同步状态。这正是社会与文化僵硬刻板的日本的失败之处。日本面临的主要挑战是‘放松’。”
这种速度冲突延伸到了地缘政治领域，不止是虔诚的前现代伊斯兰教徒和后现代世俗消费者阶层之间的冲突。托夫勒指出，在韩国，金大中令人钦佩地为其旨在改变北方的“阳光政策”，设立了循序渐进的30年时限。但一些突发事件――比如金正日近来的导弹试射行动――在该政策有时间奏效之前改变了政治日程，使该政策不了了之，就像戈尔巴乔夫推行的改革，其发起人心目中也有一个长达10年的时间框架。
他警告称：“这种速度冲突往往会偏离当前的变革轨道，或至少会使其走上弯路。”
“线性推断法容易误导”
“这就是线性推断法为何如此容易误导的原因。在今后20年的某一阶段，很有可能出现一次重大的社会剧变，令所有预测都出现问题。”
午餐现已延续到了午后，我们开始感受到灸烤着洛杉矶的热浪。托夫勒的新书并未花费多少笔墨谈论全球变暖问题，我想知道他在这方面的想法。“我首先怀疑那些对未来的预测和对过去的推测――我怀疑这真会告诉我们今后几百年将发生什么，以及人类出现前发生过什么。”他表示，“还记得保罗?埃利希(Paul Ehrlich)的《人口爆炸》(The Population Bomb)吧。如果说曾有过关于2000年的误导预言，那就是这本书。”
我最后还有一个问题：在他预言未来的这些年中，有没有弄错的时候？“上世纪70年代，我们讨论过人类和动物克隆，认为它将在80年代中期成为现实。”他回答道。“我们低估了科学发展的缓慢步伐。尽管我们指出了道德上的难题，但我们没有预测到反科学的基督教徒的强大力量。”我们见面这天，正赶上布什(Bush)否决了放宽干细胞研究的法案，这一点无须我提醒。“此外，”托夫勒笑道，“无纸化办公尚未实现。”
托夫勒点了咖啡。我点了樱桃果汁冰糕。从我们的谈话中，不仅看到了他那真正宏大的思想――开放、客观、无私，也就是说，知性的正直――而且看到了一个真正的好人。无论未来变化有多快，他明显走在了未来的前面。
贝尔艾尔酒店，洛杉矶
柯布沙拉1份
甜瓜和意大利熏火腿1份
蔬菜沙拉1份
樱桃果汁冰水1份
浓咖啡1份
干马提尼1份
圣培露矿泉水2份
黑品乐葡萄酒1杯
总计：128.28美元
