Choppy Waters Ahead
As world finance ministers finish up their discussions in Singapore today, one issue must be haunting them: Who can possibly replace American consumers as the engine of global growth, in case of a pronounced slowdown of the U.S. economy?
The short answer is that the glut of savings in the rest of the world, if only slightly dented, is more than sufficient to keep the global ball rolling. Here's the caveat, however: This can't happen without the euro zone pitching in. Although it's hard to be optimistic about the coming year, there are encouraging signs that Europe will, at last, be able to claim the baton soon.
Global savings amount to roughly $10.5 trillion, or 22.5% of global GDP, according to the International Monetary Fund. This includes household and company savings and is net of government shortfalls. The two main Anglo-Saxon economies, the U.S. and the United Kingdom -- where consumers are most likely to turn more thrifty in the coming years -- hold 21% of global savings, compared with 20% for the euro area, 17% for developing Asia and 11% for Japan.
These numbers tell two things. First, a large rise in the savings rate in slowing Anglo-Saxon economies could easily be compensated for elsewhere. In the rest of the world, the euro area accounts for a quarter of savings, roughly as much as China and Japan put together and significantly more than developing Asia. If the U.S. sputters, the engine of the global economy will not have enough cylinders firing if old Europe does not do its bit.
So can Europe, flush with savings, at last pull its weight? Judging by recent GDP data -- 2.6% annualized growth on average over the last four quarters, with a 3.6% peak in the latest reading -- one is tempted to answer positively. All the more so since growth was almost exclusively fuelled by domestic demand, which expanded 2.5% over the last 12 months, a staggering acceleration after five years of sluggish 1.5% average annual growth.
Unfortunately, the outlook is not as brilliant as the recent past might suggest. Two of the largest euro-zone economies, Germany and Italy, have decided to cut their budget deficits next year no matter what happens. Even if Italy implemented only half of the announced spending cuts, a synchronized fiscal retrenchment in these two countries would cost about half a point of growth next year. Adding up the effects of a stronger euro and rising interest rates, one full point of domestic demand will likely be missing next year in Europe.
One hopes this short-term pessimism will prove wrong. Maybe European consumers will break their piggy banks; maybe companies will use their profit margins as shock absorbers and won't raise prices (which wouldn't be good news for shareholders); maybe the official optimism shown by policy makers will proved justified. Maybe. It could as well be wishful thinking, as it has often been.
However, it would be a mistake to stop here and conclude that the euro area is condemned to stagnation after a short-lived recovery. There are three good reasons to be optimistic about the medium term.
First, productivity is recovering. According to our tentative measurements (official data are scarce and fragile), productivity per worker in the business sector, which grew on average by 0.7% per year from 1999 to 2005 on estimates by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, reached 2% in the first half of this year. More importantly, productivity per hour accelerated from 1.3% per year on average in the first six years of the single currency zone to 2.4% in the last six months. There is a cyclical and therefore temporary dimension to the resurgence of European productivity. However, cyclical developments do not explain everything. A combination of far-reaching corporate restructuring, forced by globalization, and consistent investment in information technology by European companies is the other and more fundamental reason for the acceleration in productivity.
Second, labor-market flexibility is improving. In 1998, the year before the European Economic and Monetary Union started, unemployment was 10%. This July, it dropped to 7.8%. A few years ago, most academic studies concluded that if unemployment went below 9%, wage inflation would surge, forcing the central bank to react swiftly to nip inflation in the bud. Guess what? In June, wage growth in the private sector, at 2.4%, did not even match energy-fuelled inflation, which was 2.5%.
There is more. Most of the improvement in labor markets is coming from two countries where high unemployment seemed most deeply entrenched: Spain and Italy. In reality, the way these two, as well as France, are dealing with their labor-market rigidities is not satisfactory: They've introduced flexibility for some workers, kept protection for others. This is a serious issue that could compromise further progress if not addressed, as riots in France's poor suburban projects showed last autumn. But it should not obscure the big picture that unemployment is falling without generating inflation, a sign that the speed limit for the economy is going up.
Third, reformers are scoring unexpected successes. Ironically, the most reformist government is the left-wing coalition led by Romano Prodi in Italy, despite some recent concessions to economic nationalism. He is deregulating services, making significant reductions in social-security taxes and privatizing state corporate- and real-estate assets. Doesn't that sound a lot more Thatcherite than what his predecessor Silvio Berlusconi ever managed? In France, the two frontrunners for next year's presidential election, Ségolène Royal and Nicolas Sarkozy are sounding more reformist than any of the candidates since Jacques Chirac in 1986. Unfortunately, Mr. Chirac wore pro-market clothes during two years only then, when he was prime minister. Those trying to destabilize Ms. Royal call her Blairite, and those trying to derail Mr. Sarkozy's train call him pro-business. Both are probably right. Once Germany has absorbed next year's fiscal bitter pill, a good bet is that the economy will reaccelerate and have more appetite for reform.
The happy side effect will be that the euro area will take its full part in keeping the global economy on an even keel. But before we get there, there are some choppy waters to cross next year.
Mr. Chaney is chief economist for Europe at Morgan Stanley.
全球经济前路坎坷
随着各国财政部长周三结束在新加坡的会谈，一定会有一个问题让他们寝食难安：一旦美国经济显着滑坡，谁有可能替代美国消费者成为推动全球经济增长的引擎？
简单地说，世界其他地区大量的存款如果能减少一点，就足以推动全球经济继续增长。不过应该指出的是：没有欧元区的积极参与，就不可能出现这种情况。尽管来年前景难以让人乐观，但也有一些令人鼓舞的迹象显示，最终欧洲会有能力从美国手中接过接力棒。
国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund, IMF)的数据显示，目前全球存款总额约为10.5万亿美元，占全球GDP总量的22.5%。这是扣除政府债务的家庭和企业存款净额。美国和英国拥有全球存款的21%（这两个国家的消费者在未来几年减少支出的可能性最大），欧元区为20%，亚洲发展中国家为17%，日本为11%。
这些数据说明了两个问题。一是在经济增长放缓的英美两国，存款率的大幅上升很容易被其他地区所弥补。二是在世界其他地区，欧元区存款占全球总量的近四分之一，几乎是中国和日本的总和，大大高于亚洲其他发展中国家。如果美国经济滑坡而无欧元区来接棒，全球经济的引擎将不会拥有足够的动力。
那么拥有大量存款的欧洲最终能发挥它应有的作用吗？根据最近的欧元区GDP数据（前四个季度折合成年率平均增长2.6%，最近一个季度达到3.6%的高点）判断，应该能得出肯定的答案。所有的增长基本上得益于内需的增长，在过去12个月，欧元区内部需求增长了2.5%，大大高于前五年1.5%的平均年增长率。
不幸的是，欧元区的前景可能不象不久前人们预测的那样一片大好。欧元区两个最大的经济体德国和意大利已经决定无论出现什么情况明年都要减少预算赤字。即使意大利只实现其所宣称的支出削减额的一半，这两个国家财政支出的同步减少也将使欧元区明年的增长率下降0.5个百分点。再考虑到欧元走强和利率上升的影响，欧洲明年的内部需求增长可能会减少整整一个百分点。
人们希望这种短期悲观前景最终会被证明是错误的。也许欧洲的消费者会暂停到银行存款；也许企业不会提高产品价格（这对股东不是好消息）；也或许政策制定者的乐观是有充分依据的。但是这一切都只是假设，很可能同以往一样，只是一厢情愿而已。
不过，如果就此得出结论，认为欧元区在短暂的复苏后又将陷入停滞，那显然是错误的。有三个充分理由对中期前景持乐观态度。
首先，生产力正在回升。根据我们的初步测算（官方数据缺乏，而且零散），企业平均劳动生产力在今年上半年提高了2%。而根据经合组织(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)的估算，1999年至2005年间平均劳动生产力每年只有0.7%的增长。更重要的是，欧元区平均工时生产力增幅从前六年1.3%的年均水平提高到了今年上半年的2.5%。欧元区生产力的提高具有一些周期性、暂时性的特点。不过，周期性的变化并不能解释所有事情。深层次的企业重组、全球化的压力和欧洲公司在信息技术产业的持续投资，这些因素都是生产力提高的更根本原因。
其次，劳动力市场的灵活性正在不断改善。1998年，即欧洲经货联盟(European Economic and Monetary Union)成立的前一年，失业率为10%。今年7月，失业率已降至7.8%。几年前，大多数学术研究都认为，如果失业率降至9%以下，将会出现工资通胀，从而迫使央行迅速采取措施，将通货膨胀扼杀在萌芽状态。但现在情况如何呢？私有企业6月份的工资增长幅度为2.4%，甚至还没有达到2.5%的通货膨胀率水平。
情况不仅仅如此。劳动力市场更大的改善是来自于深受高失业率之苦的两个国家：西班牙和意大利。实际上，这两个国家还有法国解决劳动力市场僵化的措施并不能令人满意：他们针对某些劳工采取了灵活的机制，但对另外一些劳工依然采取的是保护政策。这是一个严重的问题，如果得不到解决，可能会阻碍未来的发展，就象去年秋季法国贫民区所出现的骚乱一样。但这不会妨碍失业率在无通膨情况下下降的总体格局。
第三，改革派正在取得未曾料想到的成功。颇具讽刺意味的是，改革最坚决的竟是普罗迪(Romano Prodi)领导下的意大利左翼联盟政府，虽说普罗迪最近也对经济民族主义者做出了一些让步。他正在放宽对服务业的监管，大幅调低社会保障税，对国有企业和房地产资产实行私有化。这是不是比他的前任贝鲁斯科尼(Silvio Berlusconi)更加撒切尔主义(Thatcherite)呢？在法国，明年总统大选的两个热门人选罗亚尔(Segolene Royal)和萨尔科奇(Nicolas Sarkozy)都似乎比1986年希拉克(Jacques Chirac)执政以来的任何候选人都更加支持改革。不幸的是，希拉克仅在担任总理之后的两年里采取了支持市场化的做法。反对罗亚尔的人称她是布莱尔主义者(Blairite)，而反对萨尔科奇的人则称他是亲商主义者。这两个说法可能都对。一旦德国在明年消化了财政赤字的苦果，经济很有可能再次加速增长，因而也有更大的意愿进行改革。
可喜的额外收获是，欧元区将会全力参与到保持全球经济平稳发展的努力中来。但在实现目标前，明年的路恐怕不会一帆风顺。
（编者按：Chaney是摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席欧洲经济学家。）
