Japan Befriends Neighbors To Pressure North Korea
New Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's coming summits with the leaders of China and South Korea could improve Tokyo's relations with both and help the region form a more-unified front to rein in North Korea, which declared Tuesday that it plans to test a nuclear bomb.
Japan has aligned itself with Washington's hard line toward Pyongyang and imposed sanctions on North Korea after it test-fired missiles in July. But China is a traditional ally of the communist state, and South Korea has been trying to build better relations with the North through economic incentives.
Despite North Korea's announcement, Seoul isn't parting with its policy. South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun told his cabinet to prepare a "cool-headed and stern" response to Pyongyang's latest provocation. "We need measures to let North Korea know clearly what consequences it will cause if it really goes ahead with a test," he said.
South Korean officials gave no indication of what measures they might take, although they have had since mid-August, when U.S. military intelligence revealed that North Korea appeared to be preparing a bomb test, to come up with ideas. South Korea went ahead with an aid shipment of cement and other materials to the North yesterday.
South Korea's signals contrast with the sharp criticism the U.S. and Japan leveled at North Korea in the wake of its statement Tuesday that it would test a nuclear bomb. Washington and Tokyo may ask the United Nations to invoke sanctions against North Korea that can be backed up militarily if it proceeds with a test, analysts say.
A similar division became apparent in July, when North Korea test-fired seven missiles, including a long-range one that failed. While political leaders in Japan, the U.S. and elsewhere quickly condemned North Korea, Mr. Roh said nothing about the tests for a week.It remains uncertain if Pyongyang is capable of testing a nuclear bomb.
Mr. Roh and other proponents of the engagement policy fear harsh measures may cause North Korea to collapse suddenly, leaving the South to cope with the chaos and expense of rebuilding its neighbor. China harbors similar concerns.
Conservative politicians and news media in South Korea say the engagement policy has become an embarrassment for the country. "This is the time for a stick, not a carrot," said Lew Seok Choon, a university professor in Seoul who is active in conservative politics. "As soon as we hear this [bomb test] news, the government should speak out and say here is our plan, so our citizens will feel comfortable."
If Mr. Abe's talks with the South Korean leader and Chinese President Hu Jintao improve Japan's relations with those countries, that could help foster progress in forming a joint strategy toward Pyongyang.
"The road to solving North Korea problems is through better relations with Beijing," said Jeff Kingston, director of Asian Studies at Temple University Japan.
Mr. Abe's trip will include the first summit meeting between the Japanese and Chinese leaders in five years. China refused to hold summits with Mr. Abe's predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi, because of his visits to Tokyo's Yasukuni war shrine, which honors war criminals as well as conscripted soldiers.
More widely, Mr. Abe's trip could add momentum to the long-term push by Japan, an economic power, for a bigger role in world affairs. Starting 15 years ago, the U.S. made strong calls to Tokyo to play a greater role in maintaining regional security. Despite a pacifist constitution adopted after World War II, Japan from the 1990s began sending troops to participate in United Nations peacekeeping operations. In 2004, it sent a contingent of troops to Iraq to join reconstruction efforts.
Another reason for Japan's shift is the economic rise of other Asian nations, which has led to competition for regional dominance.
Under Mr. Koizumi, Japan began to be more assertive. Starting in 2002, his government -- with Mr. Abe as its chief negotiator -- took North Korea to task for kidnapping Japanese citizens a quarter of a century ago. Japan eventually obtained the return of five of its citizens and their families. After North Korea test-fired missiles into the Sea of Japan in July, Japan led calls for a U.N. resolution to condemn the launches. Tokyo then imposed its own sanctions on Pyongyang.
Mr. Koizumi angered China and South Korea over Yasukuni. In 2005, tens of thousands of young Chinese staged demonstrations against Japan, complaining that it hadn't sufficiently atoned for its invasion of China in the 1930s.
Mr. Abe has visited the shrine in the past, though he hasn't said whether he will while prime minister.
The economies of Japan and China are increasingly intertwined, as Japanese companies build factories all over China, from where they export electronics products around the world. In 2004, China, including Hong Kong, eclipsed the U.S. to become Japan's biggest trading partner.
China's leaders appear to have decided they, too, have much to gain by meeting the Japanese premier and from having better ties. "The summit is coming so fast," said Zhou Yongsheng of the Institute for International Relations at China Foreign Affairs University. "It shows that China is sincere about improving the relationship between the two countries."
安倍晋三展开东亚外交攻势
日本新首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)即将与中国和韩国领导人举行会晤，这将改善日本同这两个国家的关系，使东亚地区在遏制朝鲜发展核武器的野心方面结成更统一的阵线。
安倍晋三将于周日访问北京，下周一访问首尔。这标志着他已迅速开始致力于让日本在地区事务中发挥更大的影响力。
安倍此次出访行程中将包括中日领导人五年来的首次峰会。由于日本前首相小泉纯一郎(Junichiro Koizumi)每年都参拜靖国神社，中国中断了同日本的峰会。
朝鲜在周二宣布将进行核试验。尽管尚没有明显的证据证明朝鲜有能力这样做，但此声明增加了对朝鲜问题的担忧。这个声明还为52岁的安倍在上任后首次出访提供了机会。
日本一直同美国站在一边，对朝鲜采取强硬路线，在7月份朝鲜试射导弹后，它对朝鲜实施了制裁。但中国却是朝鲜的传统盟国，韩国则一直希望通过经济手段同朝鲜改善关系。如果安倍同中国国家主席胡锦涛和韩国总统卢武铉举行的会谈能够改善日本同这两国的关系，那将有助于形成针对朝鲜的共同战略。
日本坦普尔大学(Temple University Japan)的亚洲研究主任杰夫?金斯顿(Jeff Kingston)说，解决朝鲜问题的途径在于改善与中国的关系。
从更广泛的角度说，安倍此行还有可能推动日本长期以来致力于在全球事务中发挥更大作用的努力。15年前，美国就开始强烈要求日本在维护地区安全方面发挥更大作用。尽管在二战后制定了和平宪法，但日本从上世纪90年代起已开始派遣部队参加联合国的维和行动。2004年，日本向伊拉克派出了一个特遣队参与战后重建工作。
日本谋求在国际事务中发挥更大作用的另一个原因是其他亚洲国家经济实力的崛起，这引发了地区主导权的竞争。
在小泉纯一郎担任首相期间，日本开始变得更加强硬。2002年，日本政府开始追究朝鲜在25年前绑架日本公民一事，当时安倍为首席谈判代表。日本最终让朝鲜交还了5位日本公民及其家人。在朝鲜今年7月向日本海试射导弹后，日本在联合国带头呼吁谴责此次导弹试射。随后，日本对朝鲜实施了制裁。
小泉参拜靖国神社激怒了中国和韩国，他之前的大多数首相由于担心所引发的反应都没有参拜。2005年，数万名中国青年举行了反日示威，抗议日本没有认真反省上世纪30年代的侵华战争。
安倍过去曾参拜过靖国神社，不过他并未表示是否会以首相身份参拜。但他上周在日本国会称，加强中日互信关系对亚洲地区及整个国际社会都至关重要。
日本和中国经济的关联度不断增加，日本公司在中国各地兴建了大量工厂，向全球出口电子产品。2004年，包括香港在内，中国已经超过美国成为日本最大的贸易伙伴。
中国领导人似乎也认识到，同日本首相举行会谈并改善两国关系也会让中国受益匪浅。外交学院国际关系研究所(Institute for International Relations at China Foreign Affairs University)的教授周永生说，峰会来得如此之快，这显示中国对改善两国关系是真诚的。
Sebastian Moffett
