Offshoring can benefit workers of all skill levels
Recent commentary about the state of American workershas emphasised income in-equality - declining prospects of low-skilled workers relative to their more highly skilled counterparts. Part of the discussion has centred on the role played by globalisation.
The focus of US concerns over globalisation is offshoring. Globalisation may have boosted the earnings of highly skilled workers while gutting the prospects of lower-skilled workers whose jobs are likely to be offshored. Perhaps, as Princeton economist Alan Blinder argued provocatively recently, offshoring will soon lower wages of higher-skilled service workers, too.
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Or not. The offshoring debate of the past few years has obscured some basic insights from economics and about economic policy in a globalising world. In particular, offshoring can generate gains not only for the economy as a whole, but also for low-skilled workers. American policy should not succumb to anti-globalisation forces but focus on removing home-grown impediments to wage growth of low-skilled workers.
Traditional trade theory - and discussions of comparative advantage - centred on goods produced entirely in one location. But the present practice of trade centres as much on trade in tasks as trade in goods. An "American-made" car, for example, may have most of its value added generated beyond US shores. Offshoring can, then, be thought of as a kind of trade in tasks.
The concept of trade in tasks can be traced to Adam Smith's description of the division of labour in a pin factory in 18th-century Britain. Now think of the pins in a man's shirt. Victor Fung,chief executive of Li & Fung, the trade sourcing company, observed at a Columbia Business School lecture this year that a shirt imported to the US from Hong Kong includes tasks of workers from as many as 10 countries. Today, lower costs of transport and communications en-hance the possibilities for trade in tasks in auto assembly, radiology, tax preparation and even study tips for economics. Most of the growth in American business service imports over the past decade represents task trade within US parent companies and their overseas subsidiaries.
America's labour market tells a re-lated story. The US is specialising in tasks not easily carried out remotely and importing more routine tasks that can be performed more cheaply abroad.
Offshoring as task trade can generate "gains from trade". But there is more to the argument. It may boost productivity enough to raise the wages of low-skilled as well as high-skilled workers.
Why? Recent research by Princeton economists Gene Grossman and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg reminds us that popular discussion of offshoring addresses only the effect of new overseas workers on global labour supply and the wages of US workers. However, increases in prospects for offshoring generate two additional economic effects. The first, the result of greater labour market integration, is a decline in the price of labour-intensive goods and downward pressure on the wages of low-skilled US workers most affected by the new global labour market. The second effect is on productivity: international shifting of tasks reduces costs, particularly in sectors relying more on low-skilled workers. These sectors have then an incentive to expand, and low-skilled workers find new jobs with higher productivity and wages.
How do these effects play out in the data? Professor Grossman and Mr Rossi-Hansberg provide suggestive evidence. The relative price effects of greater foreign production have decreased wages of low-wage US workers. But the economists estimate that the productivity effect dominates the labour-supply effect. That is, not only has offshoring not harmed US wages; it has actually offset some wage-reducing effects from the integration of large emerging economies such as China and India. These salutary effects would probably remain even as higher-skilled tasks become candidates for trade. For US workers of all skill levels, offshoring is akin to technological progress improving productivity and wages.
The benefits of offshoring as trade in tasks underscore economists' familiar refrain that political leaders should not bash globalisation, but those benefits also suggest affirmative roles for US economic policy. The most significant is to expand public support for training to enhance flexibility in the labour market; close behind is to reduce the corporate tax, borne in no small part by domestic workers.
Trade in tasks also generates a significant implication for trade agreements. The US has emphasised bi-lateral trade agreements in recent years. In a world of trade in goods completed within natural borders this departure from a global trade agreement would not be serious. But in the example of the man's shirt, a business leader such as Mr Fung must deal with multiple trading regimes in an environment of bilateral agreements.
Global opportunities created by large emerging economies will affect wages in the US, particularly for low-skilled workers. But to blame companies' entrepreneurial response to the rapidly changing world - offshoring or other management practices - is a mistake.
The writer, dean and professor of finance and economics at Columbia Business School, was chairman of the council of economic advisers underPresident George W. Bush 2001-03
不要谴责外包
近
来有关美国工人现状的评论中，一直在强调收入的不平等：与技能更高的同行相比，技能较弱工人的前景日渐黯淡。其中有部分评论把焦点对准了全球化所扮演的角色上。
美国人对于全球化的关注焦点在于外包。全球化也许推高了高技能工人的收入，但同时也破坏了低技能工人的发展前景，因为他们的工作有可能被外包。或许，正如普林斯顿大学经济学家艾伦?布林德(Alan Blinder)最近富有煽动性地观点所说，外包很快也会降低高技能服务业工人的薪资水平。
也可能不会这样。过去几年关于外包的争论，已经使一些经济学的基本观点，以及对全球化世界经济政策的基本结论模糊起来。特别需要指出的是，外包不仅能为整体经济也能为低技能工人创造收益。美国的政策不应屈从于反全球化力量，而应注重消除低技能工人薪酬增长在本国遇到的障碍。
传统贸易理论――以及关于比较优势的讨论，关注的是完全在一个地方生产的商品。但在当前的实践中，任务贸易(trade in tasks)和商品贸易同样占据着中心舞台。例如，就一辆“美国制造”的汽车而言，其增值部分可能大多来自美国境外。因此，外包可被视为一种任务贸易。
任务贸易的概念由来已久，可以追溯到亚当?斯密(Adam Smith)对十八世纪英国别针工厂劳动分工的描述。现在，想一想男士衬衫上的别针吧。香港出口贸易企业利丰集团(Li & Fung)主席冯国经(Victor Fung)今年在哥伦比亚大学商学院(Columbia Business School)发表演讲时表示，美国从香港进口的衬衫中，包含了多达10个国家工人的劳动。如今，运输和通信成本的降低，提高了多个领域进行任务贸易的可能性，比如汽车装配、放射医学、税项申报、甚至是经济学研究等。过去10年，美国商业服务进口的增长，大部分来自美国母公司与其海外子公司之间的任务贸易。
美国劳动力市场的演变也与此相关。美国目前专门从事不容易在遥远地方开展的业务，进口能在国外以较低成本完成的更为常规的任务。
作为任务贸易，外包能产生“贸易收益”。但这个结论还可以进一步充实：外包也许能将生产率提高到足够的水平，使得它在提高高技能工人薪资水平的同时，也能提高低技能工人的工资。
原因何在？普林斯顿大学的经济学家吉恩?格罗斯曼(Gene Grossman)和伊斯特班?罗西-汉斯伯格(Esteban Rossi-Hansberg)最近的研究提醒了我们，关于外包的常见讨论中，往往仅考虑了新增海外工人对全球劳动力供应和美国工人薪资水平的影响。然而，外包发展前景的强化还产生了另外两种经济效应。首先，劳动力市场一体化程度提高，结果造成劳动密集型商品价格下降，受全球新劳动力市场影响最大的美国低技能工人工资面临下行压力。第二个效应是生产率方面的：任务在全球范围内的转移会降低成本，尤其是在更依赖于低技能工人的行业。那么，这些行业就会产生扩张的动机，低技能员工也会找到生产率和薪资更高的新工作。
这些效应如何在数据中得到反映呢？格罗斯曼教授和罗西-汉斯伯格提供了启发性的证据。外国生产增加带来相对价格效应，进而降低了美国低技能工人的工资。但这两位经济学家估计，生产率效应主导着劳动力-供应效应。也就是说，外包不仅没有降低美国的薪资水平，实际上还抵消了中国和印度等大型新兴经济体融入全球经济带来的一些薪资降低效应。即便更高技能的工作任务成为贸易候选品，这些正面效应仍可能会存在。对于各级技能水平的美国员工而言，外包的性质类似于提高生产率和薪资水平的科技进步。
作为任务贸易，外包的益处支持了经济学家常弹的老调：政治领袖们不应非难全球化，但这些益处也意味着美国经济政策需要扮演积极的角色。最重要的是扩大公众对培训的支持，以增强劳动力市场的弹性；其次就是，要降低本土工人承担了大量负担的企业税。
任务贸易也对贸易协定产生了重要的影响。近年来，美国一直在强调双边贸易协定。在一个商品贸易在自然国界内就能完成的世界里，这种对全球贸易协定的背离不会产生严重后果。但在男式衬衫的例子中，像冯国经这样的商业领袖必须在双边协定的环境中，应对多种贸易体制。
大型新兴经济体创造的全球机遇会影响美国的薪资水平，尤其是低技能工人的薪资水平。但是，谴责企业对这个迅速改变的世界做出的企业家反应――外包或其它管理方式，这种做法是错误的。
本文作者是哥伦比亚大学商学院金融和经济学系主任兼教授，2001年至2003年曾担任美国乔治?W?布什(George W. Bush)总统经济顾问委员会(Council of Economic Advisers)主席。
