China's Reserves Near Milestone, Underscoring Its Financial Clout
BEIJING -- Sometime in the next few days, China's holdings of foreign currencies and securities will top $1 trillion -- a sum greater than the annual economic output of all but nine countries. The rapid growth in these so-called foreign-exchange reserves has made Beijing a colossus in the financial world, cushioned against shocks at home, but potentially able to trigger them abroad.
How China manages its growing pool of wealth has major repercussions for the global economy. Beijing's reserves totaled $987.9 billion as of Sept. 30 and are growing by roughly $20 billion a month. That total compares with the about $1.2 trillion in assets under management at U.S. mutual-fund giant Fidelity Investments.
As the pot grows, the secretive and sophisticated portfolio managers at China's central bank are trying gradually to boost their country's returns on its foreign-exchange holdings, at least in part by making somewhat riskier but higher-yielding investments. Last spring, an unsuccessful effort to divine their intentions sparked a steep run-up in the price of gold.
For the U.S., how China deploys its reserves is a question of some consequence. Most of China's currency reserves are invested in U.S.-dollar-denominated debt, such as U.S. Treasurys, which are considered the world's safest investment. That has kept demand for U.S. Treasury notes high -- and interest rates low. A change in that pattern could affect how much Americans pay for mortgage loans and other borrowings.
Some in Washington and in world markets fear that China might one day dump its holdings of dollar-based assets, setting off a tidal wave of sales that might swamp the U.S. economy. Despite such fears, there's no sign that China is making a major move out of dollars and into euros or other foreign currencies, even though Chinese economists have occasionally warned that the weak dollar holds down the value of China's holdings.
ADDITIONAL READING
? Report on Foreign Portfolio Holdings of U.S. Securities
? IMF's Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves
China discloses almost nothing about its reserves, beyond their awesome size. Roughly 70% of the Chinese reserves are believed to be in U.S. dollar assets, 20% in euros and 10% in other currencies, including the Japanese yen and Korean won, according to Brad Setser, an economist at Roubini Global Economics.
China's enormous nest egg adds to its ability to project its influence around the world. The prospect that the Chinese central bank's State Administration of Foreign Exchange could spread its investments more widely hangs over global markets, says Richard Yetsenga, Hong Kong-based currency strategist at HSBC. "People think about diversification all the time," he says. The only other investors that rival SAFE in size, Mr. Yetsenga says, are Russia and the oil-producing countries of the Middle East.
As China's reserves balloon, markets and many U.S. officials believe it to be buying less U.S. Treasury debt, which is explicitly guaranteed by the U.S. government, and more debt issued by U.S. mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which carries an implicit government guarantee.
China's shopping list also is said to include somewhat riskier but higher-yielding mortgage-backed securities and U.S. corporate bonds. Financial-market traders and analysts also believe China has begun to dabble in even riskier dollar-denominated emerging-market debt, operating through private money managers around the world.
The country's massive foreign-exchange reserves are a direct result of China's effort to manage the exchange rate of its currency. To prevent the value of the yuan from strengthening too rapidly and hurting China's exports, the country's central bank buys dollars from foreign investors and China's own exporters, issuing yuan in exchange.
The abundance of yuan created in this way holds down the Chinese currency's value. But the resulting mountain of foreign-exchange holdings opens China to accusations from the U.S. and others that it manipulates its exchange rate to make its products unfairly cheap on world markets.
Chinese central bankers also worry that the plentiful supply of yuan is overheating China's economy and causing unwelcome inflation. Asked by reporters last month about the size of the reserves, central-bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said: "We think we've got enough."
China's reserves already far exceed what the country needs to protect its economy from global financial shocks: $1 trillion is roughly 1? to 1? times China's total import bill last year and is equivalent to roughly 45% of the year's economic output. The total could pay off China's total short-term foreign debt six times over. It dwarfs the world's single biggest mutual fund, American Funds' Growth Fund of America, with $147 billion in assets, and makes Harvard University's $30 billion endowment look like pocket change.
The latest data from the U.S. Treasury Department show that, as of June 2005, China's public and private sectors held a total of at least $527.3 billion in U.S. securities, including about $450 billion of long-term U.S. Treasury or agency debt. The composition of its dollar assets suggests that China is a more sophisticated portfolio manager than Japan, which is believed to keep a larger fraction of its $881 billion in reserves in short-term U.S. securities. But the Treasury's figures may underestimate China's holdings because the U.S. government can't always identify the ultimate owner of its debt.
Indeed, the Chinese central bank's State Administration of Foreign Exchange leaves few tracks as it buys and sells assets through dealers all over the world, as well as through the largely state-owned Bank of Communications in Shanghai. The sums are so large that traders and analysts from Hong Kong to London prize even the slimmest details.
The flimsiest reports from China on the management of its reserves can cause gyrations in global markets. In May, for instance, China Gold News, a leading industry publication in China, carried comments from a Chinese economist who said China should raise its holding of gold to 2,500 metric tons from 600 tons.
The economist, Liu Shanen, doesn't speak for SAFE: he is a part-time economist at the Beijing Gold Economy Development Research Center, a government organization closely affiliated with state-owned mining groups. Nevertheless, the report helped push gold prices to a 25-year high.
By spending a large chunk of its national savings to buy U.S. debt, China is helping keep mortgage rates in the U.S. low at a time when the money could be put to use in its own huge, developing economy. The Chinese health system is collapsing; schools are starved of funds; social welfare systems are in dire need of cash.
In the brewing debate about how the reserves could be better spent, Premier Wen Jiabao has suggested that some of the funds could be set aside to buy high technology to transform Chinese businesses. Vice President Zeng Qinghong advocates using the money to buy raw materials that China lacks. Meanwhile, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers has been barnstorming the globe telling countries like China they are squandering resources by parking billions in low-yielding U.S. debt securities.
Some Chinese economists advise caution. Using foreign-exchange reserves to invest in oil and other commodities is "far too risky," warns Yi Xianrong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a leading think tank. He advises buying fewer dollars and larger quantities of other currencies.
Just this month, comments by an adviser to the central bank that it was risky for China to hold so many dollars sent the dollar slipping from multimonth highs against major currencies. But Fan Gang, a member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, speaking at a financial forum, was quoted by Reuters news service as saying that China had few alternatives to dollar investments.
U.S. officials currently worry less about China dumping its dollars than they do about the prospect that some developing country, unhappy with conditions on International Monetary Fund loans, might end up borrowing instead from China, potentially increasing China's influence in emerging markets.
According to officials involved in the discussions, the U.S. recently balked at letting China join the Inter-American Development Bank as a "nonregional member," something China wanted to do to raise its profile in resource-rich Latin America. Washington insists that countries such as China that borrow from the World Bank aren't eligible for such status.
Demonstrating the enormous flexibility its vast reserves provide, China offered a compromise: For every dollar China borrowed from the World Bank, it would put an equivalent amount from its reserves into the World Bank through another doorway.
The deal didn't materialize. A spokesman for the Inter-American Development Bank says he can neither confirm nor deny that such negotiations took place.
庞大外汇储备平添中国金融影响力
用不了几天，中国的外汇储备就有望突破1万亿美元，超过了近9个国家年经济产出的总和。中国则因此成为了金融世界里的巨人。中国外汇储备的快速增长在帮助缓解国内经济动荡的同时，却有可能引发国际市场的波动。
中国如何管理庞大的外汇储备对全球经济而言意义重大。截至9月30日，中国外汇储备余额达到9,879亿美元，并且正以每个月200亿美元的速度增长。这与美国共同基金巨头Fidelity Investments管理的1.2万亿美元资产不相上下。
随着外汇储备不断增长，精明的中国央行投资管理人士开始悄悄尝试提高外汇储备的收益，他们进行了一些风险较高、回报更为丰厚的投资。去年春季，他们在黄金市场一次并不成功的试探性投资引发了金价骤然飙升。
对美国而言，中国如何处置其外汇储备将对美国产生重要影响。目前中国多数外汇储备投资于美国国债等以美元标价的债券上，而美国国债一向被认为是全球最安全的投资。结果导致美国国债的需求非常强劲－－也使美国利率得以保持低位。而这一投资模式的变化很可能影响到美国人抵押贷款及其他很多贷款的成本。
华盛顿官员及部分市场人士担心，中国有一天可能会大量抛售美元资产，并引发市场对美元资产的抛售狂潮，从而冲击美国经济。不过，尽管存在种种担忧、并且中国经济学家偶尔也会警告称美元疲软可能会损害中国外汇储备的价值，但目前尚无迹象显示中国将大举削减美元头寸、将其兑换成欧元或者其他货币。
除了外汇储备规模外，中国对外汇储备的其他细节一直秘而不宣。Roubini Global Economics的经济学家布拉德?塞泽尔(Brad Setser)表示，估计中国外汇储备中大概有70%为美元资产，20%为欧元资产，另外10%为包括日圆和韩圆在内的其他货币资产。
中国庞大的外汇储备为中国影响全球经济平添了新的筹码。汇丰(HSBC)驻香港的外汇策略师理查德?耶岑加(Richard Yetsenga)表示，国际市场正在盛传中国央行下属的国家外汇管理局(State Administration of Foreign Exchange)将逐步分散外汇储备投资。人们一直在考虑多样化的问题，”他说，“从规模上能与SAFE相媲美的投资者只有俄罗斯和中东的一些产油国。
随着中国外汇储备不断膨胀，市场及很多美国官员纷纷预计中国将减少对美国国债的购买量，增购美国抵押贷款商房利美(Fannie Mae)和联邦住房贷款抵押公司(Freddie Mac)发行的债券，美国国债由美国政府明确担保，抵押贷款商的债券也暗含着美国政府的担保。
据称中国的投资品种还将包括一些风险更高、回报也更加丰厚的品种，例如住房抵押贷款担保证券和美国公司债券等。金融市场交易员和分析师还认为，中国甚至已经开始涉足风险更高的以美元标价的新兴市场债券，委托全球私人基金经理进行操作。
中国庞大的外汇储备与中国管理人民币汇率的外汇体制不无关系。为了防止人民币兑美元升值过快从而损害中国出口，中国央行从外国投资者和本国出口商手中不断买入美元，放出人民币。
充沛的人民币流量帮助压低了人民币汇率。但因此导致的外汇储备激增也引起了美国和其他国家对中国操控人民币汇率的强烈不满，他们声称，中国人为压低人民币汇率，使得中国产品在国际市场上获得了不公平的竞争优势。
中国央行官员也担心充足的货币供应会导致中国经济过热、引发通货膨胀。中国央行行长周小川上周在回答记者有关外汇储备的问题时表示：“我们认为中国的外汇储备已经足够多了。”
中国目前的外汇储备数量已经远远超过了为保护中国经济免受全球金融危机冲击所需的水平。1万亿美元的外汇储备几乎是中国去年进口总额的1.25至1.5倍，相当于去年中国经济总产出的45%左右；这样规模的外汇储备足以偿还中国所有的短期外债6次，它让全球最大的共同基金－－American Funds旗下管理着1,470亿美元资产的美国成长基金(Growth Fund of America)相形见绌，更是让哈佛大学(Harvard University) 300亿美元的捐赠基金看上去像是零钱小票。
来自美国财政部(Treasury Department)最新的数据显示，截至2005年6月，中国公共和私人部门共持有至少5,273亿美元的美国证券，包括4,500亿美元的长期美国国债或政府机构债券。从其美元资产的构成可以看出，中国是一个比日本更老道的投资组合管理者。据信在日本外汇储备中，有8,810亿美元投资于美国短期债券。不过美国财政部的数据可能还低估了中国的持有数量，因为美国政府往往很难确定债券的最终持有人。
事实上，中国央行的国家外汇管理局在通过全球各地的交易商以及国有的交通银行(Bank of Communications)买卖资产时几乎不会留下任何线索。由于交易数据巨大，从香港到伦敦等各个地方的交易员和分析师对于哪怕是一星半点的交易信息都会如获至珍。
中国发布的有关外汇管理的报告即便是最不可信的也会导致全球市场的波动。比如，今年5月份，中国领先的行业报纸《中国黄金报》引用中国一位经济学家的话称，中国应将黄金储备由目前的600吨增加到2,500吨。
这位名为刘山恩的经济学家与SAFE并没有关系，他是北京黄金经济发展研究中心(Beijing Gold Economic Research Center)退休返聘的经济师，而该中心是一家国有矿业集团下属的研究机构。然而正是这篇报导将黄金价格推到了25年的新高。中国将大量的外汇储备用在了购买美国国债上，从而帮助美国将其抵押贷款利率维持在较低的水平。而中国本来可以将这些资金用于其庞大的发展中经济上，中国的医疗体系几近崩溃、学校资金匮乏、社会福利系统也存在巨大的资金缺口。
在有关如何更好利用外汇储备的讨论中，中国国家总理温家宝曾提出可以拿出部分资金专门用来购买高新技术、以改变中国的产业结构，而国家副主席曾庆红则认为应该用这些资金购买中国缺乏的原材料。与此同时，美国前财政部长劳伦斯?萨默斯(Lawrence Summers)一直在全球各地演讲，告诉像中国这样的国家，它们将大量资金投资在低收益率的美国国债上，是一种对资源的浪费。
一些中国的经济学家则建议要小心从事。中国社会科学院研究员易宪容警告说，将外汇储备投资到石油和其他商品上的风险过大。他建议减少美元资产、增持其他货币。
就在本月，在中国央行一位顾问发表评论称中国持有如此多的美元存在风险后，美元兑主要货币汇率从数月高点应声回落。不过，被路透社(Reuters)引用的中国央行货币政策委员会委员樊纲的这番讲话主要是针对中国除了美元投资外、其他投资渠道寥寥而说的。
美国官员目前对中国减持美元倒没有太多的担心，让他们更担心的是，部分发展中国家由于不满意国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)的贷款，可能会从中国那里获取贷款，从而无形中增加了中国对新兴市场的影响力。
据参与讨论的官员称，最近美国拒绝让中国以“非地区成员”的身份加入美洲开发银行(Inter-American Development Bank)，中国本来希望通过此举来深入资源丰富的拉美地区。华盛顿方面坚持认为，像中国这样从世界银行(World Bank)贷款的国家没有资格获得这样的地位。
对此中国提供了一条折衷办法：对于中国从世界银行借入的每一美元，中国将从其外汇储备中拿出同等数量的资金通过其他渠道返还给世界银行。从这一点也可以看出巨大的外汇储备给中国带来的灵活度。
但这种办法未见结果。美洲开发银行发言人表示，他既不能肯定、也不能否定进行了这样的谈判。
Andrew Browne
