Campaign Cash Clues
WASHINGTON -- A rush of final campaign spending next week will provide important clues to where the Republican firewall against a Democratic takeover of the Senate is shifting -- and whether Republicans are even trying to build one to protect their House majority.
Overall, Republican committees have raised more money than the Democrats, $445 million to $330 million. They also have a cash advantage in the final weeks -- $17 million, reports released Friday show.
The big Senate questions: Now that the Republican Party has decided to stop investing in Ohio, where incumbent Sen. Mike DeWine is trailing in polls, where does the money go? Will the party divert big money from the Buckeye State to make a last stand in Tennessee, where Republican Bob Corker is fighting to hold the seat of departing Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, or double-down its bet on Virginia Sen. George Allen, who is clinging to a razor-thin lead?
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee recently sunk $1.7 million into ads attacking Mr. Allen; Republican Party committees countered with $1.4 million, according to a study released this week by the Campaign Finance Institute, a nonpartisan political-money watchdog group.
But the Virginia race remains a dead heat, and party officials on both sides are predicting another $3 million could be spent in the Old Dominion by Election Day.
Republican Party leaders also will have to show their hand in New Jersey, where they have been flirting with spending millions to try to oust freshman Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez. Democrats have used $2 million to build a firewall of their own around Mr. Menendez, who is viewed as their most -- and perhaps only -- vulnerable incumbent in that chamber.
The balance of the Democrats' Senate payout, roughly $16 million, has been used to attack Republicans. Republican Party committees have spent $12 million -- all of it aimed at holding Democrats' net victories to fewer than six, the magic number that would flip control of the chamber.
In the House, where Democrats need 15 seats to win control, the field continues to worsen for Republicans. Party leaders have been forced to spend in such states as Idaho, which wasn't on anyone's map of contested races at the start of the year. It isn't clear they have the money to sustain such a broad defense through Election Day.
In the first two weeks of October, Republican Party committees spread millions of dollars across 53 House races while Democrats concentrated on 33. The Republican expenditures include eleventh-hour contributions to protect incumbents in New Mexico, Virginia, Pennsylvania and West Virginia who have suddenly seen their races turn more competitive. Overall, Republican committees have spent $45 million on House races.
The Democrats have spent $26 million, almost all of it trying to snatch Republican-held seats. Of the eight races in which Democratic incumbents are facing serious challenges, the Republican committees stopped spending money in four earlier this month, all but ceding them.
Among the trends that can be detected in this year's midterms is that both political parties have become more-cohesive units, with members of Congress working as teams to defeat the other side, says Anthony Corrado, an expert on campaign finance at Colby College in Maine.
Behind their loyal small-donor bases, the most important set of contributors for both sides this year are their own incumbents, sitting in safe districts, who are transferring large sums into the central committees to help their colleagues.
从资金流向看选战策略
面对民主党志在夺取参议院控制权的攻势，共和党如何调整防线上的兵力部署？共和党是否会另外构筑一道防线来捍卫他们在众议院的主导地位？本周最后一批竞选资金的流向将为揭晓上述谜团提供重要线索。
共和党委员会筹集的竞选资金以4.45亿美元比3.30亿美元压倒了民主党。上周五公布的报告显示，在最后几周里，共和党人的资金也比民主党要多出1,700万美元。
事关参议院选举的重要问题是：既然共和党决定放弃俄亥俄州（现任共和党参议员麦克?德万(Mike DeWine)已经成为“扶不起的阿斗”），那么原定拨给该州的竞选资金将转投至何处？共和党是否会把大批资金从俄亥俄州调往田纳西州，在那里与民主党决一死战？共和党正试图填补来自田纳西州的参议院多数党领袖比尔?弗里斯特(Bill Frist)即将离去留下的那个空白席位。抑或共和党会把资金投向弗吉尼亚州，给目前仅以微弱优势领先的参议员乔治?艾伦(George Allen)上个双保险以锁定胜果。
无 派竞选资金追踪机构Campaign Finance Institute上周公布的一份研究显示，民主党参议院选举委员会近来在广告宣传方面投入了170万美元，用于攻击艾伦；共和党也不甘示弱，花费了140万美元予以回击。
弗吉尼亚州的席位争夺仍然难解难分，共和党和民主党官员均预测，在大选日到来之前，为了争夺这个席位仍需投入约300万美元的资金。
共和党领袖还要在新泽西州与民主党展开一番较量，他们一直在考虑投入数百万美元资金来击垮民主党参议员鲍伯?梅南德斯(Bob Menendez)。但民主党人已经斥资200万美元为梅南德斯精心打造了一道防线，因为在民主党看来，新泽西州是最不稳固、或许也是唯一可能落入敌手的阵地。
民主党把用于争夺参议院席位的剩余资金1,600万美元全都用来攻击共和党人。共和党则掏出1,200万美元进行还击，共和党的目标是把民主党净挖走的席位限制在不到6个，因为一旦超过这一数目就意味着参议院将成为民主党的天下。
在争夺众议院席位方面，共和党的形势更为严峻。民主党需要至少再争取15个席位才能把众议院的控制权从共和党手中夺过来。两党领袖不得不在爱达荷州这些年初时不属任何一方版图的地区投入重金。不过，现在的问题是若想维持范围如此之广的防区，两党的竞选资金能否够支撑到中期选举日来临之际。
在十月份的前两周，共和党投入数百万美元用于锁定众议院的53个席位、而民主党则集中兵力主攻33个席位。为了保住新墨西哥州、弗吉尼亚州、宾夕法尼亚州、西弗吉尼亚州这些竞争更趋焦灼地区的现有席位，共和党已经做好了死战到底的准备。总的来说，共和党竞选委员会已经为争夺众议院席位花费了4,500万美元。
民主党在这方面的花销为2,600万美元，几乎全部用于抢夺共和党的地盘。在民主党面临严峻挑战的8个席位的争夺中，共和党本月早些时候已经停止向其中4个席位的争夺战提供资助，这意味着共和党已经打消了抢夺这几个席位的念头。
缅因州科尔比学院的政治学教授安东尼?克雷德(Anthony Corrado)表示，从今年的中期国会选举中可以看出这样一个趋势，即不论是共和党还是民主党，为了打败对方都更加抱团、更加注重集体的力量。
除了为数不多的捐款死党之外，今年捐款的最主要来源是那些高枕无忧的现任国会议员。他们把大批捐款上交给竞选委员会，好为本阵营的其他人士助上一臂之力。
Jeanne Cummings
