The world's workshop on the cusp of another transformation
Donald Hay, who runs a manufacturing company in the Pearl River Delta, remembers a surreal trip to Hong Kong in the early 1980s.
It had recently been announced that China would not agree to an extension of Britain's rule over the territory beyond 1997. On Hong Kong island, the professional classes huddled in their clubs, fearing the worst as the Hong Kong dollar and property market collapsed.
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But on the other side of the harbour, Mr Hay recalls, the traders and manufacturers in Kowloon were ecstatic. Hong Kong's return to China seemed confirmation that the country's recent opening to foreign investment, which had provided them with a lifeline just as the then colony's costs were becoming unbearable, would continue and deepen.
"It was chalk and cheese those two sides of the harbour," says Mr Hay, who knew instinctively with which camp his sympathies lay. His family before him had run a successful manufacturing business in Australia, and Mr Hay decided to do the same in southern China.
The subsequent transformation of the Pearl River Delta into the world's workshop is by now a familiar tale. Bounded roughly by Guangzhou in the north, Hong Kong and Shenzhen to the south-east and Macao and Zhuhai in the south-west, the region's verdant paddy fields have long since given way to a mighty industrial wasteland.
The experience of Mr Hay and countless other businessmen like him captures the region's rise in microcosm. Today his company, Hayco, employs 6,800 workers in Shenzhen and produces an expanding range of household cleaning supplies and electrical appliances for companies such as Proctor & Gamble and Wal-Mart. Now there are suggestions that the Pearl River Delta is on the cusp of another transformation. Just as Hong Kong-based manufacturers decamped across the border when the territory's land and labour costs became unbearable, so similar pressures are squeezing factories in the delta.
There is ample anecdotal evidence that costs are rising, forcing some companies out. But delta-based manufacturers are responding with remarkable flexibility, absorbing the costs by producing higher value, higher margin products.
"We're seeing new and improved product because of prices," says Merle Hendrich, chairman of trade show organiser and publisher Global Sources. "We think that's very healthy for China's economy because it pushes low-end manufacturing into the hinterlands."
Factories have plenty of incentives to stay put. The Pearl River Delta's physical infrastructure - especially its expressways and ports - is world-class, although power shortages have been a nagging problem over recent years. The density of suppliers in the region is also remarkable, ensuring that manufacturers can source every component they require within a one- or two-hour trucking radius.
"The supply chain is a big factor," says Mr Hay. "When we went to China 15 years ago everyone was carrying spare parts. Today we can buy everything we need around the corner."
The delta's human resource advantages are arguably even more significant. The area's labour shortage and fast-rising minimum wage levels have been widely reported, but factories whose piece-rate pay structures allow workers to make far more than the legal minimum monthly wage reap the best of both worlds - high retention rates and productivity levels. "If you only pay the legal rates you'll be one of the worst payers and will lose staff," notes Mr Hay.
Michael Enright, a Hong Kong-based regional competitiveness expert, tells of a visit to one factory where a press had broken down. As one of their colleagues worked to fix the equipment, the workers who manned the press stood to attention, ready to leap back into the fray as soon as it was repaired. In any other country, Mr Enright jokes, they would have been nowhere in sight, enjoying the opportunity for an unscheduled break. "Productivity is huge," he says.
Then there is the issue of managerial talent, which is where Hong Kong makes itself felt. In 1990 an estimated 50,000 Hong Kong residents worked in China. Sixteen years later that figure has swelled to 500,000 - roughly half of them retirees - with another 250,000 commuting regularly across the border.
"The Hong Kong [managerial] staff are very good. You can't get a better group of people for this business," says Mr Hay.
"But I can't get them to go to Bangladesh or Mauritius. It's very hard if you're in Vietnam or even central China. Who am I going to get to go up there?"
珠江三角洲转向高端
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纳德?海(Donald Hay)在珠江三角洲经营着一家制造公司。他还记得80年代初那次怪诞的香港之旅。
当时，中国刚刚宣布，不同意英国在1997年后延长在香港的统治。在香港岛，港币和地产市场暴跌，上班族挤在他们的俱乐部里，忧虑到了极点。
海回忆道，在海港另一边，九龙的贸易商和制造商却欣喜若狂。当时，香港的成本已开始变得难以承受，而中国刚刚实施的对外开放政策挽救了这些贸易商和制造商。香港的回归似乎证明，中国的这一政策将持续下去，并将不断深化。
海表示：“海港的两边迥然不同。”他本能地知道自己拥护哪一边。他的家庭在澳大利亚经营着一家成功的制造企业，他决定在中国南方做同样的事。
珠江三角洲后来转变成为世界工厂，这个故事如今已经为人们熟知。北边大概以广州为界，东南方一直到香港和深圳，西南延伸至澳门和珠海，这一地区翠绿的稻田早已变成了巨大的工业区。
海和其他不计其数的商人的经历，是该地区崛起的一个缩影。今天，他的喜高公司(Hayco)在深圳雇佣了6800名员工，为宝洁(Proctor & Gamble)和沃尔玛(Wal-Mart)等公司生产种类日益增多的家庭清洁产品和电器。现在有迹象表明，珠三角正迎来另一次转变。正像香港的制造企业因为土地和劳动力成本变得无法承受而跨越边境来到内地一样，类似的压力正降临到珠三角工厂的头上。
有很多迹象表示，这里的成本正在上涨，迫使一些企业撤离。但是，珠三角地区的制造企业表现出了非凡的灵活性，它们通过提供更高价值和更高利润的产品，来消化成本。
展会主办及出版公司――环球资源(Global Sources)董事长默尔?亨德里希(Merle Hendrich)表示：“价格因素使我们看到新的、改良的产品。我认为这对中国经济非常有益，因为这把低端制造业推到了内陆地区。”
工厂有足够的动机留在原地。尽管电力短缺近年来是一个问题，但珠三角的基础设施，特别是高速公路和机场，都是世界级的。该地区的供应商密度也很出众，确保制造企业可以在1至2小时卡车车程内买到它们所需的任何组件。
“供应链是个重要因素，”海表示。“我们15年前去中国的时候，所有人都在运送备件。今天，我们可以在附近买到所需的任何东西。”
该地区的人力资源优势可以说更为显著。虽然珠三角的劳动力短缺以及最低工资标准迅速提高的问题已被广泛报道，但这里的很多企业实行计件工资，使工人收入远远超过法定最低工资，从而赢得了较高的员工保留率和生产率。海表示：“如果你只支付法定工资，你将成为最糟糕的雇主之一，并导致员工流失。”
驻香港的地区竞争力专家迈克尔?恩赖特(Michael Enright)讲述了他在一家工厂的参观经历。该工厂的一个冲床出现了故障，当一名员工正在修理这个设备时，操作冲床的工人认真地站在一旁，准备在机器修好后马上继续工作。恩赖特开玩笑说，在其它任何国家，他们可能已经跑得不知去向，享受这个额外的休息时间去了。他表示：“这里的生产率非常高。”
此外还有管理人才的问题，而香港在这方面拥有优势。1990年，估计只有5万名香港居民在内地工作，16年后，这个数字变成了50万，其中大约一半是退休人员，另外25万人定期往来于两地之间。
海表示：“香港的（管理）人员非常优秀。你无法找到更好的人选帮你经营。”
“但我不能派他们去孟加拉国或毛里求斯。如果你的企业设在越南，甚至中国内地，你都很难请到他们。我能派谁去那里？”
