H-P and Dell: Trading Places
The next marker in the race between personal-computer giants Hewlett-Packard Co. and Dell Inc. comes Thursday, when both report quarterly earnings.
The tech behemoths have traded places as the world's top-selling PC maker over the past several years. During the third quarter, onetime underdog H-P shipped more computers than Dell for the first time since late 2003. Dell saw its once-dominant market share fall.
The week may help show which company can pull off a sustained lead as the two firms report earnings and lay out financial guidance for their current fiscal quarters. Indeed, H-P and Dell have entered the crucial holiday-sales season in the PC market. With Microsoft Corp.'s new Windows Vista operating system -- a software product that typically helps boost PC sales -- delayed until Jan. 30, analysts expect a knockdown, drag-out fight for share among PC makers over the next few months.
For its recently ended quarter, Dell is likely to have shown some improvement, analysts say. The Round Rock, Texas, company saw its fiscal-second-quarter profit cut in half in August because of aggressive PC pricing. Since then, the company appears to have become more disciplined with pricing. Wall Street now predicts a slight increase in Dell's operating margins, a measure of its profitability, to 4.6% in the recently completed quarter from 4.3% the previous quarter, according to estimates from Thomson Financial.
Dell's challenges remain, however. Its once-celebrated direct business model -- whereby it sells PCs directly by phone or the Internet -- has lost its luster as competitors such as H-P have closed the efficiency gap in their manufacturing process. Dell is also struggling to compete in the PC industry's growth areas of notebook computers and emerging markets. Overall, Dell is expected to report fiscal-third-quarter earnings per share of 24 cents, down from 39 cents a year ago, according to Thomson Financial.
H-P continues to breathe down Dell's neck. The Palo Alto, Calif., company is expected to post solid results thanks to increased momentum across its product portfolio of PCs, printing and enterprise hardware, services and software. In particular, analysts see the tech giant posting higher profits, something Chief Executive Mark Hurd has pulled off almost every quarter since arriving in March 2005. UBS analyst Ben Reitzes writes in a recent report that H-P's roughly 7.5% to 8% operating-margin targets for its 2007 fiscal year look too conservative, and expects the company to bump that up to 9% for its 2008 fiscal year.
Overall, H-P is expected to report earnings of 64 cents a share for its fiscal fourth quarter, up from 14 cents a share a year ago, according to Wall Street estimates tallied by Thomson Financial.
Charlie Wolf, an analyst at Needham & Co., warns that H-P's restructuring story is nearing completion. While a cost-cutting effort laid out by Mr. Hurd in July 2005 has helped boost H-P's earnings over the past five fiscal quarters, the benefits of that plan will only be felt for two or three more quarters, Mr. Wolf says. After that, investors will need to shift their focus to H-P's revenue growth. "This is a $90 billion company," says Mr. Wolf. "How fast can you grow?"
Both companies declined to comment.
惠普与戴尔交替领跑
个人电脑巨头惠普公司(Hewlett-Packard Co.)以及戴尔公司(Dell Inc.)将在本周四发布季度收益报告，这两家公司之间的竞争将进入一个新阶段。
在过去几年中，惠普以及戴尔在全球个人电脑生厂商发货数量的竞赛中交替领跑。在第三季度，一度落后的惠普的个人电脑发货量自2003年底以来首次超过了戴尔。戴尔主导市场的地位受到了侵蚀。
本周惠普及戴尔都将发布季度收益，并对本财度的财务状况作出预期，这或许会展示出谁将继续保持领先地位。事实上，惠普与戴尔已经进入了个人电脑市场重要的假期销售旺季。随着微软公司(Microsoft Corp.)的新操作系统Windows Vista推迟至2007年1月30日上市，分析人士预计在未来几个月中个人电脑生产商之间将展开一场激烈的、漫长的市场份额争夺战。
分析人士说，戴尔在最近结束的这个财季中业绩可能有所改善。由于采取了激进的定价策略，该公司8月公布的第二财季的利润下降了一半。之后，戴尔公司在定价上似乎变得更有节制了。据Thomson Financial的数据，华尔街预测，戴尔公司在最近结束的这个财季中营业毛利润率会小幅上升至4.6%，高于上财季的4.3%。
不过，戴尔仍然面临挑战。它风靡一时的直销模式已丧失了原有的魅力，因为惠普等竞争对手大大地缩短了他们生产过程中的效率差距。此外，戴尔在笔记本电脑及新兴市场等个人电脑行业的增长领域有些疲于应战。据Thomson Financial的数据，总体来说，预计戴尔第三财季的收益为每股24美分，低于上年同期的每股39美分。
惠普继续紧随戴尔之后。预计它将继续发布良好的业绩，这都得益于个人电脑产品组合、打印 及企业硬件，以及服务及软件等各个业务日益提升的增长势头。分析人士指出，这个技术巨头将发布更高的利润。自该公司首席执行长马克?赫德(Mark Hurd) 2005年3月上任以来，惠普几乎每季度都能够实现利润率上升。瑞银(UBS)分析师本?赖策斯(Ben Reitzes)在最近的一份报告中写道，惠普为2007财年制定的7.5%-8%的营业毛利润率目标略显保守，并预计该公司这个指标在2008财年中将飙升至9%。
据Thomson Financial的数据，华尔街预计，惠普第四财季的收益为每股64美分，较前一年同期增加14美分。
Needham & Co.分析师查理?沃尔夫(Charlie Wolf)警告称，惠普重组已接近尾声。沃尔夫还说，由赫德在2005年7月制定的削减成本计划使惠普过去5个财季的收益均有所提高，但惠普能够从这个计划继续受益的时间只剩下接下来的两至三个财季。过后，投资者必须将关注点转向惠普收入的增长。“这是一个年收入达900亿美元的公司，”沃尔夫说。“它的增长还能有多快？”
Christopher Lawton
