世界银行预计中国06年经济增长10.4%
World Bank Sees China '06 GDP Up 10.4%, '07 GDP Up 9.6%
--The World Bank said Tuesday it has maintained its forecast of China's 2006 economic growth at 10.4%, but has raised its forecast of the country's economic growth rate in 2007 to 9.6% from its previous estimate of 9.3% given in August.
China's economic outlook "remains robust," the World Bank said in its quarterly briefing on China's economic situation held in Beijing. But China needs to address the prominent problem of excessive liquidity caused by the surging trade surplus, the bank said.
China's gross domestic product expanded 10.7% in the first nine months of this year from the same period last year, fueled by rapid credit and investment growth.
Structural reforms, including interest rate hikes, "better pricing" of energy and resources, as well as faster yuan appreciation, should help tackle the high investment growth with the aim of rebalancing the economy, the bank said.
"The main short-term macro imbalance is an external one: the surging trade surplus," said the World Bank. China should boost consumption and it will also likely need to step up its efforts in mopping up liquidity through tools including bond issuance, the bank said.
The bank said it expects the weighting of the current account surplus in China's GDP will "level off" in 2007, as an anticipated slowdown in the world economy as well as some yuan appreciation will curb exports growth.
China's trade surplus surged to a record US$23.83 billion in October, far exceeding the previous monthly record hit in August of US$18.8 billion.
The World Bank raised its forecast for China's export growth this year to 21.3%, from its August estimate of a 20.8% rise, but it maintained its forecast for export growth in 2007 at 15.5%.
China's imports are under "downward pressure" as tightening measures have damped domestic demand, the bank said. It significantly lowered its forecast for China's import growth to 13.6% for 2006 from 18.4%. But it raised its forecast for import growth in 2007 to 18.7% from 18.2%.
China's soaring trade surplus has contributed to swelling foreign exchange reserves, making them the largest in the world.
The World Bank raised its forecast of China's foreign exchange reserves at the end of this year to US$1.099 trillion from its previous estimate of $1.081 trillion.
It expects the foreign exchange reserves to reach $1.349 trillion at the end of 2007, it said. That forecast was also higher than its previous expectation of $1.32 trillion.
The World Bank forecast China's M2, the broadest gauge of money supply, will grow 16% this year before slowing slightly to 15% growth next year.
China should allow further yuan appreciation to help bring about "desirable expenditure switching" and rebalance the national economy, the World Bank said.
"A stronger exchange rate could dampen domestic growth and addresses the current account surplus at the same time," said the World Bank. But it added that "exchange rate adjustments by themselves will not be enough to permanently lower the current account surplus."
A stronger yuan will also likely "mitigate capital inflows" by "lowering expected further appreciation," the bank said.
It expects China's inflation will remain subdued. It cut its consumer price index forecast to a rise of 1.7% for this year from its previous estimate of 1.9%, but maintained its forecast for 2007 of a 2.1% rise in CPI.
世界银行预计中国06年经济增长10.4%
世界银行(World Bank)周二称，其将对中国2006年经济增长率的预期维持在10.4%，但把对中国2007年经济增长率的预期从此前8月份估计的9.3%上调至9.6%。
世界银行在北京举行的中国经济状况季度简介会上称，中国经济前景保持强劲。但该行称，中国必须解决贸易顺差大幅增长带来的流动资金过度这一突出问题。
今年前9个月，中国国内生产总值较上年同期增长10.7%，受到了信贷和投资快速增长的推动。
该行称，加息、改善能源和资源定价以及人民币加速升值等结构性改革应该有助于解决投资高速增长的问题，以实现经济重新达到平衡的目的。
世界银行表示，中国面临的短期宏观失衡状况主要来自于外部因素，即不断飙升的贸易顺差；中国应推动消费增长，并利用发行债券等方式，加大力度，以解决流动性过剩问题。
世界银行预计，由于预期中的全球经济放缓以及人民币小幅升值将削弱中国出口增速，到2007年经常项目盈余在中国GDP中的比例将趋于稳定。
中国10月份贸易顺差飙升至历史最高水平238.3亿美元，刷新了8月份时创出的贸易顺差月度最高水平188亿美元。
世界银行将中国今年出口增速预期从8月份时的20.8%上调至21.3%，但将2007年出口增长预期仍维持在15.5%。
世界银行表示，由于紧缩政策的实施削弱了内部需求，中国进口面临下行压力。世界银行将中国今年进口增长预期从18.4%大幅下调至13.6%，但将明年进口增长预期从18.2%上调至18.7%。
贸易顺差的不断飙升已使中国外汇储备大幅增长，外汇储备额已位居全球第一。
世界银行将截至今年年底的中国外汇储备预期上调至1.099万亿美元，此前预期为1.081万亿美元。
世界银行预计，到2007年年底，中国外汇储备将增至1.349万亿美元，此前预期为1.32万亿美元。
世界银行预计，中国广义货币(M2)供应量今年将增长16%，明年增幅将小幅放缓至15%。
该机构表示，中国应允许人民币进一步升值，从而使资本流动发生合理变化，使中国经济重新达到平衡状态。
世界银行指出，人民币汇率升值可能会削弱内部需求的增长，但同时有助于解决经常项目的大量盈余问题，不过仅依靠市场自身的汇率调整将不足以长期降低中国经常项目的盈余规模。
世界银行认为，人民币升值可以使中国汇率进一步升值预期降温，从而减缓境外资本的流入。
世界银行预计，中国通货膨胀率压力将受到遏制。世界银行将中国今年消费者价格指数(CPI)预期从上升1.9%下调至上升1.7%，但仍预计中国明年CPI将上升2.1%。
