China's Money Growth Accelerates
BEIJING -- China's broadest measure of money supply, M2, picked up its pace of expansion in October, reigniting expectations that more tightening measures may be needed in coming months despite tame inflation.
M2 growth was 17.1% at the end of October from a year earlier, above economists' expectations for a 16.4% rise and faster than the 16.8% pace in September. The rebound in October snaps four months of steady or declining M2 growth rates since a peak at 19.1% in May.
The latest money-supply data indicate that excessive liquidity remains a major challenge for the central bank and could prompt further tightening measures, including an interest-rate increase or another rise in banks' reserve requirements this year, economists said.
"We expect the central bank to maintain a tightening bias in monetary policy operations in the near term," Goldman Sachs said in a note.
Beijing has rolled out a raft of tightening measures since the first quarter to rein in bank lending and reduce the amount of cash available for firms' investment.
In its latest salvo, the People's Bank of China this month increased most banks' reserve-requirement ratio by half a percentage point to 9% effective tomorrow. The measure is the third time the central bank has forced banks to set aside more funds this year and could have been prompted by October's rebound in money growth.
The central bank now seems likely to overshoot its target for full-year M2 growth of 16%.
Excessive liquidity in developed economies typically leads to high inflation. The statistics bureau reported yesterday that China's consumer prices remained tame in October, rising 1.4% from a year earlier, less than the 1.5% gain in September.
In China, rapid capacity growth due to high investment levels, combined with government-regulated energy prices, have kept consumer-price inflation low.
Following the release of the consumer-price data, Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for China's inflation in 2006 to 1.4% from 1.8%. It also cut the inflation forecast for 2007 to 2.2% from 2.8%.
China's central bank is worried that excessive liquidity will push banks to lend to marginal investment projects that could lead to wasteful spending, bad loans and potential bankruptcies. China's new yuan-denominated loans totaled 2.78 trillion yuan ($353.49 billion) in the January-October period, above the central bank's target of 2.5 trillion yuan for full-year lending.
Most economists agree that the measures by China's central bank this year, including two increases of lending rates, have helped cool China's pace of economic growth, to 10.4% in the third quarter from 11.3% in the second quarter. With the uptick in M2, economists are divided on how long China will wait before it acts again.
China has been grappling with growing inflows from trade and investment, which have put upward pressure on its currency and foreign-exchange reserves and have fueled fixed-asset investment and credit growth.
China's trade surplus hit a monthly record of $23.8 billion in October.
The rapid accumulation of foreign currency due to efforts to limit the yuan's appreciation has boosted the country's foreign-exchange reserves, which are now around $1 trillion.
Meanwhile, a leading government think tank said the economy is likely to maintain its rapid pace of growth next year, predicting gross domestic product will expand 9.5%. Beijing should continue to use a variety of tools to drain excess liquidity next year, the State Information Center said in a report published yesterday in the China Securities Journal.
中国M2增长加快，央行或维持紧缩
中国10月份广义货币供应量M2增长加快，再度点燃了市场对中国未来数月仍有必要进一步实施紧缩措施的预期，尽管当前中国通货膨胀势头保持温和。
中国10月底广义货币供应量M2较上年同期增长17.1%，增幅高于经济学家预期的16.4%，也高于9月份16.8%的增幅。10月份M2货币供应量增幅反弹，结束了M2增幅自5月份达到19.1%的高点以来连续4个月持稳或下降的局面。
经济学家称，最新货币供应量数据显示流动资金过剩依然是中国央行(People's Bank of China)面临的一大挑战，可能将促使央行今年进一步采取紧缩措施，如加息或再度上调银行存款准备金率等。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)在一份报告中称，预计中国央行近期的货币政策将继续保持紧缩性倾向。
为控制银行信贷、减少企业投资可用资金，中国政府自今年第一季度以来已推出了一系列紧缩措施。
中国央行本月将大多数银行的存款准备金率上调0.5个基点，至9%，自11月15日开始付诸实施。这是央行最新采取的一项紧缩措施，也是央行年内第三次迫使银行预留出更多的存款准备金，此项政策之所以推出可能是源于10月份货币供应量增速反弹。
就目前情况来看，中国今年全年M2货币供应量增幅可能将超过央行16%的目标水平。
发达经济体流动资金过剩通常会造成高通货膨胀。中国国家统计局周一公布，中国10月份消费者价格指数(CPI)继续保持温和，仅较上年同期上升1.4%，升幅低于9月份的1.5%。
在中国，高投资带动下的产能迅速扩张，加上政府对能源价格加以管制，使得中国消费者免受物价飙升之苦。
在中国10月份CPI数据发布后，高盛将其对中国2006年通货膨胀率的预期由1.8%下调至1.4%。该公司同时还将中国2007年通货膨胀率预期由2.8%下调至2.2%。
流动资金过剩将助长通货膨胀压力，但中国央行更为担心的是，流动资金过剩将导致银行向收益率低的投资项目贷款，从而造成支出浪费、坏帐乃至破产。
中国1-10月份新增人民币贷款总计人民币2.78万亿元，高于央行全年新增贷款人民币2.5万亿元的目标水平。
大多数经济学家认为，中国央行今年采取的一系列举措，如两次上调贷款利率，已导致第三季度经济增速放缓至10.4%，低于第二季度的11.3%。然而，考虑到M2广义货币供应量增速加快，在中国政府还要等多长时间再采取行动这一问题上，经济学家则意见不一。
流入中国的贸易和投资资金越来越多，这不但对人民币汇率及外汇储备构成上行压力，而且导致中国固定资产投资和信贷增长过快。
中国贸易顺差持续扩大，10月份触及238亿美元的月度纪录新高。
为限制人民币升值，中国迅速积累了大量外汇储备。目前中国外汇储备额高达1万亿美元左右。
