Corporate Superheroes Stand Tall
Business will be buoyant in the coming year, but beware: There will be hurdles to overcome. That is the overriding message from the AWSJ 200 (formerly the REVIEW 200), our 12th annual survey ranking the performance of companies in Asia and exploring what lies ahead for business in the region.
More than 57% of respondents to the survey believe business will improve in 2005, in line with official forecasts. Respondents from India are the most optimistic, with more than 93% expecting a brighter year for business. Still, there are challenges on the horizon -- from corruption and pollution to patchy power supplies and rising costs.
ASIA'S LEADING COMPANIES
? How Asia's National Champions Stack Up
? Multinationals Keep Raising the Bar in Asia
? AWSJ 200: The Survey Explained
ACNielsen International Research (Hong Kong) conducted the survey by polling readers of the Far Eastern Economic Review, Chinesewsj.com subscribers, readers of Caijing Magazine in China and prospective readers of The Asian Wall Street Journal. They were asked to rank 157 multinational companies and 30 to 40 local companies in each of the 12 countries. For the 10th straight year, U.S. software giant Microsoft Corp. topped the list of leading multinational companies, with readers citing admiration of its management vision and financial soundness. German car maker BMW AG ranked second, a jump of 10 slots from its No. 12 ranking last year. Ahead of the May launch of its 3-series sedan, the company also was ranked No. 1 on reputation and quality products. Indeed, quality was the most important leadership attribute in this year's survey.
Hewlett-Packard Co. took the No. 3 slot, climbing from 16th last year. The U.S. company ousted its chief executive, Carly Fiorina, this month after she and directors disagreed on how to execute the company's corporate strategy. H-P failed to meet third-quarter forecasts, sending shares tumbling. While its fourth-quarter results were in line with expectations, Ms. Fiorina was under pressure from the board and shareholders to spin off the company's highly profitable computer-printer business.
Finnish mobile-phone maker Nokia Corp. slipped to No. 4 from No. 2. Nokia retained the No. 1 spot for innovation, a position it has held since 2000, though it recently announced plans to cut spending on research and development as part of a drive to keep costs in check as it tries to claw back market share lost in 2004. Sony Corp. of Japan, meanwhile, jumped to No. 5 from last year's No. 6.
Also in the top 10 line-up were Toyota Motor Corp., which slipped to No. 6 from No. 3; computer maker International Business Machines Corp. retained its No. 7 ranking; General Electric Corp. held on to the No. 8 slot; chip maker Intel Corp. tumbled to No. 9 from No. 4, while Apple Computer Inc. soared to steal the No. 10 slot, up from No. 56, no doubt buoyed by its ubiquitous iPod music player.
While there has been some movement in the multinational rankings, many regional companies have held firmly onto their positions through the course of the survey's 12-year history. This year is no exception: In the Philippines, for example, Jollibee Foods Corp. retained the No. 1 ranking for a seventh straight year, while in Korea, Samsung Electronics retained the No. 1 ranking for a sixth consecutive year. In India, Infosys Technologies Ltd. held onto the top spot for the fifth year, as did chip maker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. in Taiwan. In Japan, Toyota held onto the No. 1 spot for the fourth consecutive year. Some flip-flopping was seen in Hong Kong, where Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. was ranked No. 1 and HSBC Holdings PLC was relegated to No. 2. In Australia, last year's No. 2, Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd., was ranked No. 1, switching places with fellow retailer Woolworths Ltd.
There was an air of cautious optimism about this year's survey, reflecting some of the economic-growth forecasts for the region. In Japan, readers see business either improving or staying on an even keel, despite the world's second-largest economy slipping back into recession last year for the fourth time in a decade. Recent data suggest an imminent upturn. Economists expect annualized growth of more than 1% for the January-March quarter, with some predicting more than 2% growth.
India, where more than 93% of readers see business improving, last year clocked GDP growth of 8.5% but recently downwardly revised its forecast for 2005 to a still-healthy 6.9% because of poorer agricultural conditions and high fuel costs. In Thailand, where tourism accounts for 5.4% of GDP, analysts haven't revised their growth forecasts following the tsunami. Growth is expected to continue at about 5.5%-6.5%. In China, the world's fastest-growing economy, officials put 2005 growth at 8%-9%, slightly slower than last year's 9.5%.
With growth figures like these, there is no denying Asia's economic success. Still, it has come at a high price for the environment. More than 48% of all readers see spiraling pollution as a threat to regional economies. More than 56% of readers in Hong Kong identify pollution as a threat to the economy. Last year, Hong Kong's air-pollution index reached 200, which is severe, for the first time since air-quality monitoring was introduced in 1995.
The government has introduced some pollution-curbing measures, such as requiring diesel taxis and minibuses to switch to using catalytic converters or cleaner-burning LPG engines. But the biggest cause of Hong Kong's pollution problem is China, where runaway economic growth, industrial output and booming car sales have caused some of the worst air and water pollution in Asia. Pollution from factories and smoke stacks in southern China drifts down to Hong Kong, shrouding the territory in a murky grey smog. More than 83% of China readers cite pollution as a real economic concern.
Power shortages are another source of strife among readers, particularly for India and China. With more than a billion people, a fifth of the world's population, India ranks sixth in the world in terms of energy consumption. Despite efforts by the government and the private sector to improve India's patchy power grid, power shortages across the subcontinent were viewed by more than 62% of readers there as the biggest threat to the economy.
That sentiment was echoed in power-hungry China, which has seen a huge growth in energy demand in line with its rapid economic development. Industrial power accounts for about three-quarters of consumption. When demands peaked last summer, China's energy chiefs implemented measures to better balance supply and demand, such as raising peak-rate tariffs and altering factory work schedules to balance consumption between day and night. The National Development and Reform Commission reported last month that power suppliers had added 13% more capacity in 2004 but said that won't be enough to curb shortages this year. The commission is attempting to boost supply by building more power plants and by investing $2.27 billion into revamping China's eastern power grid. But long term, infrastructure, tariffs and competition concerns will need to be overcome.
Other economic concerns include corruption, high living costs and bureaucracy.
The survey was conducted before the Dec. 26 tsunami. While the tsunami isn't expected to greatly impact Asian economies, natural or unforeseen disasters give Hong Kong respondents the business jitters. Little wonder: The economy was hit hard by the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, in 2003, but it has improved during the past 15 months. The property market is recovering and consumer-confidence levels are at a 10-year high, no doubt adding to the air of optimism. AWSJ 200 强：霸主依然鹤立鸡群
《亚洲华尔街日报》 200 强调查评选活动传出信息：预计亚洲商业活动今年将呈现活跃，但目前仍有一些障碍需要克服。这次调查是此前的《远东经济评论》 200 强年度调查评选活动的延续，今年已是第十二届。这项活动旨在对在亚洲地区开展业务的企业进行排名，并对该地区的商业前景作出评价。
超过 57% 的受访者表示相信， 2005 年他们的业务将有改善，这与官方的预测一致。印度受访企业表现得最乐观，有 93% 的受访者表示今年会好过去年。但目前亚洲企业也面临许多问题，涉及从贪污腐败、环境污染到电力短缺、成本上升等诸多方面。
这次调查是由 AC 尼尔森香港公司 (ACNielsen International Research (Hong Kong)) 组织实施的， AC 尼尔森对《远东经济评论》 (Far Eastern Economic Review) 、《华尔街日报》 (Chinesewsj.com) 中文网络版和大陆《财经》杂志的读者和订户以及《亚洲华尔街日报》的潜在读者进行了投票调查，邀请他们对 157 家跨国公司以及 12 个亚洲国家和地区各自的 30-40 家本地企业进行排名。
在这次调查中，美国软件企业微软公司 (Microsoft Corp.) 在跨国公司中连续第十年雄踞榜首。读者对该公司管理层的管理愿景和财务实力表示赞赏。德国的宝马公司 (BMW AG) 从去年的排名第十二位跃升到第二位。这家即将推出 3 系列轿车的公司在企业声誉和产品质量方面排名第一。在今年的调查中，质量是确定企业领先地位的最重要的品质。
惠普公司 (Hewlett-Packard Co.) 在本届评比中排名第三，较去年的第 16 位也有很大提升。这家美国公司前不久刚刚解聘了前首席执行长卡丽?费奥瑞娜 (Carly Fiorina) ，原因是她与董事会在公司发展战略问题上有分歧。董事会和公司股东一直在施压，要求费奥瑞娜将盈利情况很好的惠普打印机业务分拆出去。
芬兰手机制造商诺基亚公司 (Nokia Corp.) 从第二滑落到第四，不过该公司在产品创新方面仍排名第一，自 2000 年以来它一直占据著这把交椅。为控制成本、夺回 2004 年失去的市场份额，该公司最近宣布计划削减研发费用。日本的索尼公司 (Sony Corp., 又名：新力 ) 从去年的第六上升 1 位，至第五。
前十名中的另一家日本公司是丰田汽车 (Toyota Motor Corp.) ，但它的排名从上年的第三降至第六。国际商业机器公司 (International Business Machines Corp.) 和通用电气 (General Electric Corp.) 今年仍分别排在第七和第八。晶片制造商英特尔 (Intel Corp.) 从去年的第四降到第九，苹果电脑从去年的第 56 位一跃至第十位，这无疑与该公司成功推出极其畅销的 iPod 音乐播放器有关。
数年来，跨国公司的排名每年都会有些变动，但许多地区性公司的排名在本项调查开展 12 年来一直很稳定。今年也不例外：比如在入选的菲律宾公司中， Jollibee Foods Corp. 连续七年排名第一，而三星电子 (Samsung Electronics) 在入选韩国企业中连续第六年排名第一。
印度的 Infosys Technologies Ltd. 也连续第五年排名国内企业第一，台湾积体电路制造有限公司 (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.) 同样连续 5 年称雄台湾。日本入选企业中，丰田汽车连续第四年居首位。香港地区略有变动，国泰航空 (Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. ) 取代汇丰控股 (HSBC Holdings PLC) ，汇丰屈居第二。澳大利亚公司中，去年排第二的 Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd. 升至第一，与同属零售业公司的 Woolworths Ltd. 相互调换了位置。
从今年的调查结果中人们可以感受到一种谨慎乐观，反映了一些地区经济增长预期。比如，虽然日本经济去年再次陷入衰退（这是 10 年来的第四次），日本受访者预计企业前景将得到改善或与目前水平持平。近期的数据显示日本经济可能不久就将好转， 1-3 月份当季的经济增幅折合成年率预计将达 1% ，有些人甚至预计增幅能达到 2% 以上。
印度受访者中有 93% 的人预计企业业务会改善。去年印度经济增长了 8.5% ，但鉴于农业收成前景不佳和燃油成本居高不下，印度近期将 2005 年的经济增长预期下调到 6.9% 。
在旅游业收入占到国内生产总值 5.4% 的泰国，虽然该国前段时间遭受到海啸的袭击，但分析师并未下调其经济增长预期。目前的预期仍保持在 5.5%-6.5% 。
中国官方则预计，这个全球经济增长最迅猛的国家 2005 年的增幅将达到 8%-9% ，略低于去年 9.5% 的增幅。
面对这样的增长预期，没有人会否认亚洲经济取得的巨大成功。但亚洲也为此付出了沉重的环境代价。超过 48% 的受访者认为，日益严重的环境污染将对地区经济造成威胁。香港地区受访者中持此观点者占 56% 以上。去年，香港的空气污染指数达到 200 点，已属于重度污染，这是 1995 年该地实施空气质量监控以来该指数首次升至如此严重的水平。
香港政府已推出一些污染治理措施，如要求使用柴油发动机的出租车和微型巴士改装催化装置或液化气发动机。但造成香港严重污染的最大原因来自中国大陆，整体经济和工业产值的迅速增长以及汽车市场日益扩使大陆部分地区成为亚洲空气和水污染最严重的区域。从中国南方的工厂排出的大量烟尘被吹向香港，使该地区被包围在一片灰蒙蒙的烟雾中。有 83% 的大陆受访者将污染列为对经济的真正威胁。
电力短缺是受访者担心的另一个问题，印度和中国受访者中这一点特别明显。拥有全世界五分之一人口的印度目前的能源消耗量在世界排名第六。虽然印度政府和民营企业都在努力改善分散的电网，但前景似乎仍很堪忧，有 62% 的印度受访者将全国性的能源短缺视为印度经济面临的最大威胁。
这种担心同样也出现在能源严重不足的中国，随著经济的迅速增长，中国的能源需求也在大幅上升。工业用电占中国电力总消耗量的四分之三。每到夏季用电高峰，中国能源主管部门就要采取调整供需的特别措施，比如提高用电高峰的电价、调整工厂的作业时间等，以调整昼夜用电之间的平衡。
中国国家发展和改革委员会 (The National Development and Reform Commission) 上个月公布， 2004 年国内发电容量已增加 13% ，但今年仍不足以扭转电力短缺的局面。该委员会计划兴建更多发电厂、并投资 22.7 亿美元改造东部电网，以此增加电力供应。但长期而言，仍需克服基础设施、电价体系和竞争方面的问题。
人们担心的其他可能影响经济发展的问题还有贪污腐败、生活费用上涨和官僚主义等等。
这次调查是在 12 月 26 日亚洲爆发海啸之前进行的。虽然预计这次海啸不会对亚洲经济产生重大影响，但香港地区受访者仍对自然灾害和其他不可预见的灾难感到担心。这一点并不奇怪， 2003 年，肆虐亚洲的非典型肺炎 (SARS) 就曾使香港经济遭受严重冲击。所幸在随后的 15 个月时间里，香港经济有所改善，地产市场正在复苏，消费者信心也达到 10 年来高点，这多少给人们增添了乐观情绪。
